every post isn't that. see the post about obama winning georgia? which was front paged for over an hour?

New Jersey's a bit disappointing, but again, it was a state where she had a very large lead, and a state that's right on her back door that she had hoped to dominate and mine a bunch of delegates from.

Barack has closed the gap enough in places like Jersey to pull a solid number of delegates. This will be an interesting night, with no clear winner coming out unless something really unexpected happens.

Considering how the exit polls have been off across-the-board, I have a bad feeling about Ca. Hillary may easily take CA. :(

I am flipping between MSNBC and CNN...is it me or does CNN seem to be pulling for Hillary and MSNBC for Obama?

Greg, how is it shaping up as a good night for her? All six caucus states, which favor Obama, are left. And for the last week Obama has never lead in either NJ or MA. So he closed the gap in the NE to almost even up the delegates there, crushed in the states he needed to, and has some great states coming up.

I find it curious with the exit poll info. Every one that was wrong was picking Obama but broke for Hillary. No one went the other way. Not claiming a tin foil hat theory, just making an observation. I've seen this in the last two presidential elections and it never gets explained other than "I guess people lied to the pollster." Can anyone add some insight as to how this keeps happening?

I do like the way this is shaping up for Obama, and this looks like a very interesting night. The exit polls all over are trending Obama (by far in some cases), which means that early voters are the biggest thing throwing calculations off.

One thought has recently started to root--all delegates are released from their pledges after the first ballot at the convention. If we can surmise anything from the results up to and including today, it is that a sizeable portion of early voters may well have changed their opinion since their ballot was cast. It will be a very interesting second ballot at the convention if this goes all the way there.

I'm not one to usually bitch about fairness, but seriously, why the big Hillary headlines with Obama footnotes?

The Obama supporters are already spinning losses in all the big blue states like a dervish in a blender. That, more than anything else, makes it a huge night for Hillary so far. Long way to go yet.

Hey, guess what. Obama's campaign can play the race card over and over again until he gets to 99.7% of the black vote - and the Dems are not going to take Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina in the GE. These are wins only important in that they got that bloc to turn out big - and that means more blacks probably vote in the GE.

The states that matter (except for Obama's home state, of course) are breaking for Clinton at this point. That's the unspun fact based on every counted voter. The GE is winner-take-all as I recall. That delegate thing is what Alfred Hitchcock called a McGuffin.

Most encouraging thing I see for Obama is Delaware win and possible Connecticut. If he wins the upset in California - then I think it's a bad night for Hillary and I'll start my spinning. LOL

colonpowwow,

Interestingly, looks like Obama has gained on Clinton quite a bit against the "black candidate" spin. The only demographic Clinton has a reliable lead in is white women, particularly the older ones. Obama is handily the favoured one among the <40 crowd in all demographics.

Colonpowwow, it's all spin now. Obama's strategy going into this was to split Clinton's heavy delegate advantage that she was counting on coming from the northeast, pick up the majority of delegates out of the none coastal states, and split if not outright steal California. The goal was to make the argument that they are building a much more broad-based and expansive coalition than Clinton is, and to keep Clinton from putting her name on the vast majority of states with outright wins.

The fact that his poll numbers increased so dramatically leading up to today was the only reason some people considered states like New Jersey and Massachusetts in play. Winning there wasn't necessarily part of Obama's strategy, although I'm sure they would have been happy to. After tonight, since it's now clear that there'll be no killing blow from either side, this thing goes long-haul. And that's a fight that Obama has set themselves up to win outright. Clinton was all about inevitability, and that's out the door for good now.

Nothing on the four Western states called for Obama in the hour since this post (KS, ND, ID, UT)?

The way I see it is more simple (minded?). Hillary won the traditionally Democratic blue states, the ones that any Dem needs in order to win the GE.

If Obama can't win the majority of big Democratic states, how does that translate into he's the most electable Democrat - when the Democrats that do the electing around here are picking Hillary in Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Missouri.

Winning Georgiam Alabama, North Dakota, even Kansas, is nice enough, but they don't win the GE for Democrats. Any Democrat in Idaho is a rebel in a state that went to Bush with 72%. These are not your mainstream Democratic regulars we're talking about here, Jah love 'em.

Missouri can't be called yet; Hillary is doing well in the rural and small town areas. The big metropolitan and college towns always finish up last and so far these areas are going strongly to Obama.

It's still very close; I do think Obama will win. But it will be close.

(formerly stlounick)