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Correction: Obama Wins Missouri!

Updated below: Obama actually wins the state.

She takes Missouri, a state dominated by rural voters that is a key presidential proving ground.

The overall map between Hillary and Obama is very fluid right now. Obama has won the key toss-up states of Connecticut, Utah, and Delaware. But, as Ben Smith notes, with the Missouri loss, Obama has fumbled three big ones he wanted: Missouri, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.

The delegate breakdown, which is ultimately what really matters, is another matter entirely. Right now, MSNBC is saying that the delegate count is Obama 594, Hillary 546. But California is still outstanding, so it's still anyone's guess who really gets to declare victory tonight.

One other outstanding question: Will tonight prove to be a repudiation of Bill Clinton, as some pundits were already predicting even before the voting had finished?

Late Update: Actually, Hillary hasn't won Missouri yet. The AP and Reuters called it, but the networks haven't called it yet, and CNN's numbers show Obama has crept into a slim lead of several thousand votes. So this state very well may go to Obama. More soon.

Late Late Update: MSNBC just called it Missouri for Obama, calling him the "apparent" winner. Fox News called it for him, too.


87 Comments

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Greg,

Nitpick but Ben Smith correctly notes that Obama supporters were looking to those three as potential pick-ups. According to my sources, Obama's internals have been showing close but leaning Clinton all along so his/the campaign's target has mainly been closing the gap as much as possible.

greg wrote:One other outstanding question: Will tonight prove to be a repudiation of Bill Clinton, as some pundits were already predicting even before the voting had finished?

you've asked that qustion twice now, I think that's enough greg. we get it, you heart bubba.

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No, I just hate mindless punditry, whoever the target of it is.

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Please, Idiotic. Greg's been accused of bias so many times by people on both sides that it's really best to not even try unless you have something specific and meaningful to gripe about.

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I believe MN has about the same number of delegates as MO and Obama is winning huge in MN.

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"One other outstanding question: Will tonight prove to be a repudiation of Bill Clinton, as some pundits were already predicting even before the voting had finished?"

That's what a fool believes, Greg. No one save for you and Chris Matthews are obsessed with this question.

Results are currently 49%/48% with 9% outstanding.

I don't think you can call anyone the winner in MO yet. (Of course, it may be a draw depending on delegate division)

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Take a look at the Axelrod interview on MSNBC.... watch the body language.... Obama lost the night... what matters is that Obama did not break through in the crucial battlegrounds...

St. Louis County is only 2/3rds in, with 120k breaking 60 Obama, so he could still make up the 20k differential.

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Early on it looked like MO was for Hillary...she has a 1 point lead with 92% of the precincts in...man this is never wrecking

"Fumbled" is a poor choice of words. That implies he had them in his hands and he really didn't. They were at best toss-ups. Just sayin'. Good work tonight, overall. Have enjoyed the coverage here.

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Only down 9000 votes with 9% left. What network called it??? MSNBC doesn't seem to have.

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The Ben Smith comment is really misplaced. Obama had huge deficits in MA and NJ, and was really reaching to expect to win there, when keeping the results close would be a victory. Missouri is the only thing even close to a "fumble," and with the vote breaking 50-49, or 49-48, it will effectively be rendered a tie regardless of the overall state vote. If Obama comes out ahead in delegates tonight (a big "if" with California outstanding), it would be very difficult to suggest that this was anything but a significant victory for him. Coming out of today with not one but TWO "mo's" (money AND momentum) will really put him in the driver's seat going forward.

Where does everybody get inspiration and great oratory from Obama. I'm listening to him at his HQ in Chicago and he is borrrriiiing.

Agree with incidental... these were reaches anyway. On MO, MSNBC just showed them only 9k votes apart with over 350k each. Hardly can be considered a win for Hillary yet.

hanksf, are you watching the same speech I am? I think he's a little over the top at times, but he's still a brilliant speaker.

Lay off on Bill. The polls make clear that Democrats like him just as well today as previously, even if MSM deride him at every opportunity.

Obama's doing better than I anticipated. The analysis over the meaning of which states each won or lost should be interesting. (I'm listening to Obama now and find his discussion of Clinton ungracious and arrogant. With the lack of smile and tone he projects anger and, pardon my opinion, the words of a sore loser or poor winner--take your pick. I find him poisonous to the party. While I'm sure the comment writers on this blog will cheer him, I don't and I think a lot of others won't.)

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Greg,

You've beaten the Bill Clinton thing to death. Really, we get it. Bill Clinton doesn't hurt Hillary among Democrats, and it's stupid that pundits keep bringing it up. But are you really going to mention it in every post, given that you've done four blog posts on it in Horse's Mouth in the past week?

"projects anger"...matt, why not just say what you clearly think?

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Greg:

Can you post the RCP/Pollster poll averages for Missouri, New Jersey and Massachusetts? I think it would be illuminating for this discussion.

Obama ahead in MO.

MSNBC just posted the results in MO with Obama leading with 97% reporting.

On MSNBC, they just reported Obama is up in Missouri with like 2% of the vote left to be counted. This mess is just crazy!

Obama is leading in MO with 97% of the precincts reporting...he has a 3K plus lead

DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN!

Okay idiotic. Obama comes across as an angry Black man. It pisses me off to listen to him. I'm not racist so do not suggest this. What we are listen to is a someone setting the party up for a big, very big and devisive lost if he becomes the nominee. What respect, and I have had some for him, drained as I listened to his speech just now. Any please, take a look around the country and see the reaction, you just listened to someone all but claiming entitlements, surrounding by a Black crowd, in the cadence of a Black churh, with anger and not inspiration. Go and listen back to Clinton, to McCain, and Huckabee. I'm sorry, but you can cheer all you want tonight, but it is a loss in the making. Very, very sad.

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MSNBC right now has Missouri with 97% in with the following:
Obama 387,064
Clinton 383,853

"Hillary Wins Missouri"???

Maybe change the headline now that he's in the lead?

...is there an echo in here?

You come across as an angry white man, Matthew. Go to bed.

MW: We get it. You don't like Obama because he's a scary men half black man.

Ahh Weaver, Obama is a sore loser? Me thinks thou protest too much.

Matt, I have no idea what speech you just listened to, but if you feel you have to justify yourself by stating, "I'm not racist", then what else can I say but sure big guy.

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Wow, Greg, could we get this Matthew joker out of here?

Matthew,
Claiming entitlements? cadence of a black church? Are you sure you were watching the same speech everyone else was watching? You just killed any argument you had with your expansion of your angry black man accusation. Please, by all means, throw in some more stereotypes in there to make it complete.

MO comeback will be big but so far CA is HC 55% to BO 33% with 15% reporting. Obviously lots of time to go.

I thought Huckabee sounded like an angry black man.

I'm a bit dislexic...

Okay idiotic. Obama comes across as an angry Black man. It pisses me off to listen to him. I'm not racist so do not suggest this. What we are listening to is a someone setting the party up for a big, very big and devisive lost if he becomes the nominee. What respect, and I have had some for him, drained as I listened to his speech just now. Anyway, please take a look around the country and see the reaction, you just listened to someone all but claiming entitlements, surrounded by a Black crowd, in the cadence of a Black churh, with anger and not inspiration. Go and listen back to Clinton, to McCain, and Huckabee. I'm sorry, but you can cheer all you want tonight, but it is a loss in the making. Very, very sad.

FYI, my life has been filled with diversity and I am not racist and do not associate with or tolerate anyone in my life who is. I worked on Jackson's campaign in 1984 and have supported others over the year without regard to color or gender. But Obama is over the top.

Now I hear in the background that MSNBC is marking California as a win for Clinton. Good.

"Obama comes across as an angry Black man."

Wow...Just, wow...

MSNBC just called CA for Hillary but it remains to be seen with 85% of precincts left to hear from what the delegate count will look like.

They just called California for Hillary. Too bad, but it'll be interesting to see how close the final margin actually is.

The Missouri comeback is absolutely insane. So much for Reuters.

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At this point Missouri is a statistical tie so the delegates will be split down the middle. Why all the fuss about who "wins"?

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hilarious. politico is showing obama ahead with 97% and a little victory check still hanging on next to Clinton. Sure, she could still win it of course, but I'd say "too close to call" is the correct prognostication to make.

Matt,


The "I'm not a racist" line is hard to swallow given that all your complaints about Obama include the adjective "black".

What's wrong with a black crowd? a black church? or even a black sounding voice? Do you have some sort of problem with black people talking, gathering for worship, or even gathering in general?

There should be laws against that sort of thing, huh?

Who just called california for hillary???
CNN is showing that CA is 15% reported, WTF?

CNN shows Obama up by 4k in MO with 98% reporting. Will California be too close as well?

it looks like Obama may pull out Missouri

If you're not racist, Matthew, why isn't he simply an angry man? Why is he an angry Black man (special emphasis with the capital B)? I don't really care whose campaign you worked on, that doesn't make that statement any less racist.

MSNBC has called California for Clinton as well!

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You should seriously change the headline on this Greg.

Matt,

I'm not a racist, but you are coming across as an angry white man. It doesn't piss me off to read your post, but it does amuse me just a little. Get a good nights rest tonight, because there will be a lot of angry posts to write before there is a nominee.

In other news, I think Obama is going to win Missouri.

all the nets called cal and arizona for HRC

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Matthew,

I don't think you're racist, or that you hang around with racists. In fact, I bet some of your best friends are black.

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It's a big night, momentum-wise, for Hillary Clinton. She held her base and outperformed late polls in key states like New Jersey and Massachusetts and California. Does this mean the Obama surge is over? She also showed strength in two recent red states, Arkansas and Tennessee, that Bill Clinton won in 1992 anad 1996 - so it's not a stretch to think that she could do well there in the general.

Before anyone starts spinning the delegate count, let's wait to see how they fall out in California, where Hillary's win appears to be larger than final polls suggested.

It's hard to imagine a Democract breaking through in deep south states, but if she were to put Obama on the ticket, it might be possible. With huge turnout and excitement with the Democrats, I'm thinking now that a Clinton/Obama ticket would trounce anyone the Republicans put up, include the so-called "maverick," McCain, who's strength appears to be in mostly heavily Blue states.

dnA, what I am talking about is the language, the tone, and the message. Obama became the Black candidate over the past month, answering the questions and demands of the Black community over the past month. Yes, he's winning the young vote but please take a step back and look that the big picture outside the small circle of the blogsphere and the youth. Look, we don't need an angry Black man (Obama) any more than we needed a angry White man (Edwards). Neither is inspirational beyond their core vote. However unfair it is, becoming the Black candidate with angry demands, almost entitlement-like, is marginalizing to the public at large. Take a look at some of the numbers (very roughly)--80+ Black vote, 25% Asian, 30% Hispanic, and even with 50% White Democrats, this is very limiting. Race should never be a part of the equation but sadly it is. The speech I just heard Obama give will make this even more so.

Well, at least this time you didn't try to say you weren't a racist.

Agreed. Regardless of what happens in Missouri, Hillary Clinton's speech tonight was -- well -- downright inspirational. The best of the campaign. She sounded like she's warming up for the acceptance speech in Denver.

Barack, on the other hand, went through the usual stuff from his stump speech, including taking a couple of shots of Hillary. And he did so with an angry tone and a frown on his face. Quite frankly, he acted a loser.

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Matt, no offense, dude...but you're coming across as an angry white man.

Maybe if I can learn to tone it down when it comes to my enthusiasm for Barack--maybe you will promise to tone it down when it comes to your enthusiasm for Hillary--deal?

Win-win?

What do you say?

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The early votes (which are being reported) were the difference in California. My guess is that Obama won the votes today, but not enough to overcome the early voting. We'll see how the delegate count turns out, but congrats to Senator Clinton on the early voting strategy (it worked in New Hampshire and California).

May I also point out the irony that will not be lost on Matthew.

Earlier, Matthew wondered when the media would jump the gun and report a state for candidate A when in fact candidate B won.

Matt, I think you got your answer on this thread.

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Matt--you're crazy.

You're a focus group of 1, Matthew, and based upon your volume of comments on this site you need a life.

Perhaps take a step back for a few days and absorb what everyone else knows -- that Obama has weaknesses, but being perceived as "angry" is not one of them.

...and then take a bit of a look at yourself.

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The wrong call on MO will help blunt the good news for Hillary out of CA.

I freely admit I am an Obama supporter. Tonight has given both teams some bragging rights. CA for Hillary is #1. For Obama, if MO stays the same, then this will be a good story for him tomorrow, a real comeback. Also CT, MN and CO, the host for the convention.

Tonight was a 15 round draw with no knockdown. Holy shit, we are witnessing history. Let's try and enjoy it and play fair.

Matthew Weaver I am talking to you and your angry black man rant. Chill out a little.

You can rationalize all you want. Your language speaks for itself. Obama has to be the least angry black man I've ever seen in my life. I think he may be developing hernias in his cheeks from grinning so damn much.

But all you see is an "angry black man." Sometimes you don't need to use the word to let people know what you mean.

Here's what's left in MO:

Boone
Candidate Votes % of votes
Barack Obama 9,734 61%
Hillary Clinton 5,787 36%
John Edwards 258 2%
Uncommitted 77 0%
60% of precincts reporting

Jackson
Candidate Votes % of votes
Barack Obama 60,978 56%
Hillary Clinton 46,372 42%
John Edwards 1,385 1%
Uncommitted 291 0%
96% of precincts reporting

Ray
Candidate Votes % of votes
Hillary Clinton 1,850 65%
Barack Obama 853 30%
John Edwards 86 3%
Uncommitted 19 1%
86% of precincts reporting

St. Louis County
Candidate Votes % of votes
Barack Obama 111,511 62%
Hillary Clinton 64,541 36%
John Edwards 2,306 1%
Uncommitted 302 0%
97% of precincts reporting

bdn, yes, looks like possible error on the Missouri call. What areas are left in that 3% to be reported?

A few posts, yes. I'm wondering where so many of hte other posters went over the past week (since the update) as my posts are far fewer than most writers. Anyway, I work at a computer, multitasking across three displays and two TV displays on one of the computer displays (CNN coverage sucks tonight, MSNBC a bit better). Romney out tomorrow?

oops

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MSNBC Just called for Obama.

Nice. Obama wins the big MO.