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Hillary Spanish-Language Ad: You Have To Vote Twice In Texas

Hillary Clinton has a new Spanish-language ad running in Texas, reminding Latino voters that to truly support Clinton they should turn out twice ("dos veces") on Election Day — once in the primary, and a second time for that night's caucuses, which will pick one-third of the state's delegates.

Hillary has been out-organized by Barack Obama in every caucus state except Nevada, so the campaign definitely needs to work hard to prevent the caucus from giving Obama an extra delegate boost on Tuesday night.

(Via Ben Smith)


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I'd love it if traslations were provided for those of us who failed high school Spanish.

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New poll out in North Carolina from Republican think tank:
Obama 38%
Clinton 24%
undecided 38%
http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/poll-results/february-2008-decisionmaker-poll

January poll when Edwards was still in the race:
Obama 29%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 22%
undecided 21%
http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/publication-archive/poll-results/january-2008-decisionmaker-poll

They have a high number of undecides unfortunately but still a snapshot in NC. The interesting number is that Hillary LOST 4% even though Edwards dropped out of the race between the polls.

With about 40% of NC Democratic voters African-American, I would say Obama wins NC by something like 62-38.

What a coincidence! I live in Texas and I got a mailer from the Obama campaign reminding me that I need to vote twice--but mine was in English!

The Clintons are threatening to sue the Texas Democratic Party over the caucuses.

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/story/502662.html

And now we have the next story TPM will distort to Hillary Clinton's detriment. Hurry Josh, get it posted before Drudge!

Note to readers: if you read the article publicus linked, it is clear that BOTH campaigns have not ruled out the possibility of a lawsuit after the March 4th primary. Why? Because it will be the craziest election we've ever had here and the election officials aren't adequately prepared. Given the screwball rules governing the caucuses that follow the primary--specifically, the rule that in precincts where the precinct chair is not present at 7:15 P.M, the first person there runs the caucus. I think the primary will be so close and the caucus so chaotic that a recount will almost certainly be demanded by the loser.

I don't think the "reply" function is operating properly, so this is in reply to lobary, after my first comment in reply to Publicus.

Publicus said the Star-Telegram reported the Clintons are threatening to "sue" the state Democratic Party. lobary said BOTH campaigns have "not ruled out the possibility of a lawsuit." But lobary's bottom line is that whichever campaign loses wil demand a "recount."

"Recount" does not equal "lawsuit," people. When the margin is sufficiently tiny (like, less than one percent or one-half percent -- statewide), most states have laws that REQUIRE a recount to be conducted AUTOMATICALLY. No "lawsuit" is required. That said, think of the Washington state governor election last time. Holy shit, don't let that happen to the Dems in TX!

Now, after bloviating, I will attempt to find the Star-Telegram article . . . .

Fractal,

The possibility of lawsuits has been talked about prior to this Star Telegram article because Texas Dems have known for a long time how confusing the caucus rules are to party insiders, let alone the average voter.

Read this and you'll have a better idea why.

http://www.texasobserver.org/article.php?aid=2689

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this isn't an evil Clinton plot.

Note to readers: if you read the article publicus linked, it is clear that BOTH campaigns have not ruled out the possibility of a lawsuit after the March 4th primary.

"Not ruling out" does not equal "might sue" and the article goes to great lengths to point out that ONLY Hillary's campaign has raised the spectre of a lawsuit.

From the article:

Obama spokesman Josh Earnest said the Obama campaign had no plans to sue.

please give a snark alert before reporting such pathetic news!

I didn't drill over to the Star-Telegram story yet. Does Hillary seriously think she can affect the Texas outcome (in terms of delegates) any more than she affected the Nevada outcome with that other pathetic lawsuit by those losers on the NV democratic state committee?

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ESTA ES UNA EXCELENTE NOTICIA!! PARA HILLARY!!!

Ah, idiotic en español. Usted debe fijar en todas las discusiones españolas de la lengua. :)

After reading the Star-Telegram article and the only original source document on which it was based, I say calm down, folks. Nothing is going to interrupt or delay or Hillary is pissed about her staff's failure to understand that the Texas vote is a two-stage process that occurs at (1) the primary "election," then (2) the post-election "conventions" in each "precinct."

The original source document that triggered the newspaper coverage was a letter from the general counsel for the Democratic party in TX dated 2/28 (yesterday) that begged the campaigns not to pursue litigation challenging "the convention process." The original source document said NOTHING about "caucuses."

The Star-Telegram (S-T) made clear that it was using the word "caucuses" as shorthand for the "precinct conventions." The S-T's web posting and its headline are incorrect and sloppy and may be corrected by morning. It's not about "caucuses" according to the general counsel of the TX Democrats, it's about the "precinct conventions."

In TX, those "precinct conventions" in each local "precinct" are entirely different from the kinds of caucuses which occurred in Iowa and Nevada. The "conventions" are governed by the outcome of the actual "primary" votes in each precinct, and then by special rules which have been in place for over a year which Clinton didn't know about until this month some time.

Those special rules give extra weight (and extra delegates) to precincts which had extra heavy turnout for Democrats in the last one (or two or three, take your pick) election cycles. Which means, as Josh reported days and days ago, the precincts which are heavily Hispanic will NOT get extra weight or credit because those precincts had shitty turnout for Democrats in several previous election cycles. Because (this is my claim, don't blame Josh), many Hispanics in many precincts in TX fell in love with Shrub and AGAG (Alberto Gonzales, former Attorney General and previously counsel to the TX governor, Shrub) and those Hispanics VOTED FOR REPUBLICANS FOR SEVERAL ELECTION CYCLES SO THEY DON'T GET EXTRA CREDIT IN A DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, nor should they.

Make that "Nothing is going to interrupt or delay the primary voting on March 4 in Texas. Hillary is pissed about . . . [etc.]"

Here's the letter that Fractal is referencing as the "source document".

http://media.star-telegram.com/smedia/2008/02/28/20/Campaign_Letter.source.prod_affiliate.58.pdf

New Zogby poll has Obama up 7% in Texas and only down 2% in Ohio.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/29/11235/9885/717/466104

Why didn't you post that Eric? Did you find Hillary's snuke yet?

Didn't Zogby say that Obama was ahead in CA just before Feb. 5?

I am a mathematician, but I also hold a MS in statistics - please believe me when I claim that Zogby International puts out perhaps the most inaccurate polls of any "major" polling organization.

Won't delve too much into details here, but in short their methodology is inherently flawed and they exhibit some strong evidence of finding whatever statistical result their customers pay them to find.

John Zogby holds a degree in history, as I recall, and it has served him well to put some spin on the historical failure rate of his polls. He does not, to my knowledge, hold any sort of math or statistical degree. I suspect he may not have sufficient training to properly analyze the results put forth by his employees, which is why he often makes laughable claims (like his 2004 prediction that Kerry would win 371 electoral votes - if only that one had been true!)

If you want some entertainment value, check the Zogby polls, because that's typically all they are good for. However, if you're actually looking for some reliable statistical data, your initial position toward any Zogby poll should be one of suspicion.

Fractal, those precinct conventions are our caucuses. Texas has 228 total delegates. Of those, 126 delegates are determined proportionally by the primary results in the 31 different Senate districts across Texas. They are separate from the precinct convention process, which is where those 42 AT-LARGE delegates are decided. That's the "second vote" they keep harping on, and that's what the campaigns are probably worried about.

That Star Telegram article is highly misleading. It omits a critical element, the piece of the puzzle that illustrates why both campaigns are worried about the post-primary caucuses: the process of signing in to be counted.

The precinct conventions begin at 7:15, or right after the last vote has been cast. In order to be counted, a voter who voted earlier that day (or in the early voting period) need only sign in with his or her name, address, voter ID, and presidential preference. However, they don't have to stay. S/he can sign up and walk right back out the door, but the "vote"" still counts. It's susceptible to fraud because it seems very easy for anyone to sign up individuals who arent't there as long as they voted in the primary that day.

The at-large delegates that eventually go to the national convention are not determined by the primary but rather the caucuses.

in other news....CTV HAS NAMED THE OBAMA STAFFER WHO CALLED THE CANADIAN CONSULATE, AND THERE WAS NO DENIAL FROM THE CAMPAIGN.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080228/turkey_Gates_080228/20080229?hub=TopStories

The Canadian Embassy has re-confirmed their denials about this story. It's looking like a redux of the New York Times hit job on McCain.

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Being from Chicago, I assume Obama has an advantage in this voting twice stuff.

We quite often decry the Republicans' use of factually accurate statements to mislead. Perhaps the headline writer here has just come over from the dark side? I could offer an alternative: Hillary's campaign - cheating again? The article explains that the campaign isn't doing anything unethical, but the headline sure is catchy.

Hey, maybe Hillary should tell them to vote 4 times. If she could get away with it I have no doubt she would.

---- @lobary-------

I think your comment threads are compelling....

Lobary,Couple of thoughts and a question since you’re the resident TX voter today....(and to anyone else out there with an interest...)

Another thing I’ve noticed about Texas is that it’s an “open primary” and a Republican can vote on the Democratic ticket in the primary, and then turn around at vote GOP in the general. The allegation is they’d “stack the deck” to out a Democratic candidate --presumably knock Clinton out of the race (as a few voters claimed on CNN after the Potomac vote - “I voted Obama in the primary, and will vote Ron Paul in the general”)

Question, Lobary: Does this “open” aspect also apply to the Caucus format? Can the GOP show up at the Caucus, too? In the WA Caucus it was nearly impossible for such a baroque move. In WA a voter must affirm they are a Democrat and are a registered voter or commit perjury in the process. They sign and date their name, however, they don’t have to put a time stamp for signature. People can sign and leave, which accommodates individual schedules.

Second question: In the TX open primary system, are voters required to state their party affiliation regardless if they intend to vote for an opposing party? Therefore, the Sec of State Office can verify if GOP voted DEM, or vice versa. I would presume the individual would need to verify they are at least registered, but in TX would you need to be an “independent” in order to vote both ways -or can you stay party loyal and then vote anyway you wish? In WA, we are required to stick to the party we picked. For example, if the individual voter decides to be an “independent” but there is no candidate running as an independent, well, you don’t have a candidate -and you don’t get a vote. Equally, if you voted Democratic in the primary, you’re Democratic in the general. No switch hitting or swing dancing, so to speak.

thks.

argh. went back to verify obama /paul vote statement.
I got it backwards..and it was CSPAN Radio...d'oh!
here's link and quote:

"CSPAN radio to report that they’d just voted for Ron Paul, but, in the general election, would vote for… Obama"
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080303/ehrenreich

Soft Felt Hat,

Yes, a Republican voter can do just that. The only requirement to participate in the caucus (precinct convention) is to have voted in the Democratic primary. Any voter can then sign his/her name, address, voter ID#, and presidential preference, and walk right out the door.

And no, we don't have to state our party affiliation. The only thing you have to do is request a Democratic or Republican primary ballot. I did just that in 2000. I knew our then-governor W had no business being president, so I voted for John McCain in the Republican primary to cast a preemptive vote against Bush.

Thanks, Lobary.

I think I prefer the new WA vote format over the older WA format, and I most certainly prefer it over TX two-step.

No offense intended.

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