« Zogby: Obama, Romney Ahead In California | Home | Hillary: Obama "Consistently Misstates" My Position On Negotiating With Foreign Leaders »
Hillary Leading Obama In One California Poll; Tied In Another
In addition to the new Zogby poll showing a slight lead for Obama in California, two other polls are also out this morning. The new MSNBC/McClatchy poll finds Hillary ahead by nine points:
Hillary 45%Obama 36%
Undecided 16%
That's a stunning number of undecideds with only two days to go until Feb. 5th. Meanwhile, a new Field poll shows that Obama has closed to within a statistical tie of Hillary, 36%-34%.
Guess how many undecideds? Eighteen percent. Bottom line: We have no idea what's going to happen on Tuesday.
Advertisement
We do know what will happen in Ca on Tuesday.
Either the Democrats will choose our next president or they will go for the Yes We Can't who gets steamrolled by McCain in the GE.
February 3, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Regardless of how you look at it, Obama has movement, and with all of the big Cali endorsements in the last few days, which might not be reflected yet, I think he is going to have a very good Tuesday.
February 3, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I went out canvassing yesterday for Barack in California and the undecided numbers in these polls don't surprise me at all...
Out of the 100+ doors I knocked on, I'd guess 40% were still undecided. (The good news for me though, I only came across 1 person that was voting for Hillary.)
I was struck at how many people were receptive to the canvassing and actually wanted to "talk about this thing". I had never canvassed before and expected grumpy people and slammed doors.
It was interesting to me that the 3 people I came across that were undecided, but leaning Hillary, were all men and all cited wanting Bill back in the White House as their reasoning.
Anyways - I'm out to canvass some more today - even though it is raining. The high number of undecideds was encouraging somehow...gave me the sense that we (Obama supporters) could still get out there, talk to people, and make this improbable dream of ours happen...
I am so FIRED UP and READY TO GO!
February 3, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have an inkling of what might happen on Tuesday with that many undecideds. It can only benefit Obama.
February 3, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
John, so you have logged in without difficulty?
February 3, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, folks have certainly known Hillary for a long time. It would seem that if they haven't decided to go with her by now, they won't in the next 48 hours.
Either way, it is shaping up to be one of the most exciting nights in American politics in quite some time!
February 3, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1417
Let's not read too much into a Zogby poll after the pre-NH debacle.
February 3, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Richmond, are you going to say that in every thread on TPM?
I'll say it again Richmond: Every pollster messed up NH. So that's just spin. I'll acknowledge he he has a bad rep and every poll should be taken with a grain of salt but I could use "the NH excuse" to rule out every pollster that shows Clinton in the lead.
February 3, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen is also set to report a poll that has Obama +1 in California.
Team that with Oprah and Caroline Kennedy in California today for him, and we're going to be in for a few surprises on Tuesday night.
February 3, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
We don't know what is going to happen on Tuesday because congressional district delegate selections cannot be infered from state wide polls which themselves have been in a highly fluid state - viz South Carolina polls understated the magnitude of Obama's win by 14%!
However, make no mistake from California to New Jersey, Obama's surged to close 15-25 point gaps in all polls. I see nothing to break a wave which will crest on Tuesday
February 3, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Richmond:
I think you mean all polls. Everyone of them got it wrong in New Hampshire.
In SC, only one poll that was listed on this site showed Obama winning by a bigger margin than Zogby. Zogby showed:
Obama 41%, Clinton 26%, Edwards 19%
Obama +15
The final state results as shown on MSNBC:
Obama 55%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 18%
Obama +28
The Zogby results for FL (R):
McCain 35%, Romney 31%, Giuliani 13%, Huckabee 13%
The state results:
McCain 36%, Romney 31%, Giuliani 15%, Huckabee 13%
Half of the newest polls for there showed Romney winning or a tie.
It makes it seem more up in the air now since Zogby shows Obama winning.
February 3, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary doesn't have anything to worry about. Bill will be out in California all day today to remind voters that Obama is black.
February 3, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Polls are all over the place but Zogby's just seem a bit out of whack in relation to other polls. Case in point is NJ:
February 03, 2008
POLL: Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Primaries
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
New Jersey
Clinton 43, Obama 42
McCain 54, Romney 23
Posted in the hope that the New and Improved (TM) moderated TPM-EC forum would approve it for posting some time before Tuesday or if at all...
February 3, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Arguing about poll accuracy is about as useful as arguing about a weather forecast. So, of course, I'll join in. I'm no fan of Zogby. My sense is that there's a little too much voodoo in his methodology, but fair's fair. Everyone was wrong about N.H. However, Zogby was one of only two polls that was in the ballpark in predicting the magnitude of Obama's win in SC.
But really, people, its pointless to argue these things. Its pretty clear that no one is staying home out of discouragement because of poll numbers this year and they've been so whack for the last three elections that no one really puts much stock in 'em anyway.
Btw, one thing that has been amusing to me is that the polls run by universities seem to have been the absolute worst over the last year. It's almost like the guys designing the models are saying "if the u.g. bastards won't turn out for my 8:00 a.m. survey research methods course, no way will they turn out to vote!" and factoring that in to their models.
February 3, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's be honest. Nobody knows...
I already plan to ask for some personal time Wednesday morning so I actually get a little sleep before work.
February 3, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Always Tip,
Damn, that's a good idea. I may just take the whole day off. I'm either going to be sleepless from despondency, sleepless from excitement or sleepless from staying up too damn late biting my nails until Cali gets to the 95% reporting point.
Btw, the ABC News has what has to be the worst picture of Hillary I have seen in weeks up on its polling story. It looks like she just broke wind.
February 3, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I have to say that I think that primary polls are largely garbage - at least for this election cycle. However, the polls all seem to be saying one thing: John McCain is going to win big, but Hillary has lost her big lead.
I must confess that my jaw simply dropped yesterday when I saw the result of the Washington Post poll as further confirmation of Obama's surge. It really appears that the Dem race for the nomination will last well after Super Tuesday.
February 3, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure this one is an outlier, but OMG--does the Zogby poll for New Jersey really put him 1% behind Hillary!? Even if one of the other two polls from today is closer (5% or 8% between H and O) that's incredible momentum in her own back yard.
February 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it just me or is the New and Improved TPM-EC just swallowing comments without displaying them? I would hate to speculate that there is some kind of censorship going on but this is very strange, and I am yet to see how this new system helps democracy: (a) it seems to have affected the free and lively exchanges that had characterized this site by allowing immediate back and forth between posters, and (b)with the introduction of a "moderator", the site is much more susceptible to charges of bias because now the "editors" appear to decide what is or is not appropriate for posting... The note above says that it might take several minutes for a comment to appear, which would be fine, except that I am yet to see a single one of my posts appear, and it is has been several hours!
February 3, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Zogby's CA poll is taking the early vote into account -- something like 2 million votes have already been cast that will probably represent 30-50% of the total vote in CA -- then the Zogby poll would just about have to be suggesting a 25-point swing in favor of Obama in the last week. Anything is possible I guess, but it seems a little far fetched.
February 3, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Every other poltical commentator I have read except for Greg Sargent discounts a 36-34 poll with 16 percent undecided as UNRELIABLE. Why report it as though it is accureate? The answer of course is to obsure the Obama surge, and the very likely prospect that Edwards supporters are breaking to Obama.
I also note that Josh Marshall's post today focuses on state polls in Super Tuesday states. Which is logical and appropriate. TPM/EC does seem however to go back anf forth on the significance of national vs. state polls, based on which suggest Clinton has the advantage.
The vast majority of the polls, I believe, show that Obama is surging. While it may not be enough to win the Super Tuesday primaries, it is the story of the hour.
February 4, 2008 6:43 AM | Reply | Permalink