Hillary Camp Only Recently Learned About Texas Delegate Rules
While the Hillary Clinton campaign has made the Ohio and Texas contests on March 4 into their new firewall, they have only recently discovered the arcane rules of delegate selection in Texas, which could potentially mean that even a substantial popular win translates into only a slight edge in delegates.
The Washington Post reports that Hillary strategists learned in a closed-door meeting this month about the Texas contest, which splits delegates among the state Senate districts and also between the primary and a caucus held that night. It's ultimately a commentary on their lack of planning for a race lasting after Super Tuesday — when they thought they'd have the race locked up — that they have only just now learned of delegate rules that were of long-standing public knowledge.















READY ON DAY ONE!
(not necessarily ready on day two)
February 18, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
This makes Clinton unfit for command. Her strategy suggests she beleived she woudl be greeted with flowers and as a liberator on February 5, so no other planning was necessary.
I bet Penn thinks that Obama winning so many elections means he's in his last throes, too.
February 18, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Barack Obama: Ready to plagiarize on Day 1.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M6x1H08aFc
February 18, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
You might want to look up the definition of plagarism because that ain't it.
February 18, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Plagiarism:
the unauthorized use or close imitation of the language and thoughts of another author and the representation of them as one's own original work.
Not sure yet if it was authorized or unauthorized, but the original author definitely went uncredited!
February 18, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/18/us/politics/18video.html
February 18, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Deval PAtrick has basically said it was authorized.
MArtin Luther King, John Fitzgerald KEnnedy, and Thomas JEfferson were unavailable for comment.
February 18, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this "plagiarism" ploy is the best that the Clinton campaign can come up with, then you start to understand why they were so incompetent about understanding the basic rules about Texas' primary.
Wow, are they terrible campaign managers. Do they really expect this will make any voter think of Obama in a bad light? All they're doing is highlighting for everyone over and over again that he's a great speaker! Hey, voters, don't think about how inspirational Obama is. Hey, I said DON'T think about it! Dammit, what's wrong with you voters, don't you know you should be voting for the boring candidate with "substance"??? Geez, you must be from a red state or something.
50%+1 and anything to win, huh? What a GREAT idea. Just what this country and the Dem party need right about now. And then to throw such incompetent management into the mix... I'm really hoping she doesn't win now. That kind of incompetence and partisanship and divisiveness isn't anything this country needs anymore.
February 18, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
You really ought to try restraining your jerking knee long enough to look into the facts of the matter before you post something that has been repeatedly debunked, beginning about a year ago.
February 18, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's hard to "debunk" the fact that a man whose campaign is built around words is now using the exact words of a supporter without acknowledging it to the crowd.
"So Obama has said this before, and the press has reported it before (although not necessarily as a gotcha piece). Of course, the difference is that Obama is now the front-runner. More importantly, what would the reaction be if Clinton were the candidate accused of borrowing lines from another politician -- even one who is a friend and who shares the same media consultant?"
from: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/18/676739.aspx
February 18, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I missed the part where Hillary meticulously credits her speechwriters during her stump speech.
February 18, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I missed the video showing where Hillary lifted a speech.
February 18, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Found it for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFKipoXVjSs
February 18, 2008 11:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Notice how the Clintonistas hijacked this thread for an attack on Obama -- ignoring the topic and substance of the TPM post.
When you can't argue the facts...
February 18, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Clinton campaign is clearly in disarray. Never mind Hillary's experience defending Walmart. Never mind her experience living in the East Wing. The first test is whether you can bring together a good team (a requirement of any political leader) and not have to keep firing people you surround yourself with. Clinton would not be ready on "day one", or on any other day. People are too afraid of her power to speak their minds, and any President surrounded by sycophants is a dangerous leader indeed - as we have learned with Bush.
February 19, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds kind of like when the king learned about there being a difference between sunnis and shiites and that they hated each other, which was after the invasion. Pathetic. And these people want to run the country? They are ready from day one? Too funny.
February 18, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
And this is supposed to be the President ready on Day One? Jeezus, what a clusterf**k of a campaign they've run, and that tells you what kind of a president she might be.
February 18, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another blow to her argument of competence.
February 18, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is the sweetest irony of the election. The Texas system seems designed to subvert the will of the voters and HILLARY is upset about it.
February 18, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
HRC wants to do to the country what she's doing to her campaign? She did not know the rules in Texas, she did not know she was overspending, she did not know that inspiration mattered, she did not foresee that many small donors can matter, she did not foresee that small states matter.... WE CAN foresee what a leader, shielded from reality in a cocoon of trusted advisors, where loyalty trumps competence, can do to a country, as we are living it day by day. What would HRC do if Iran and Korea act in a way she did not foresee? CAll Bill?
February 18, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, Mark Penn asked me to point out to you that you seem to be missing the fact that post-Super Tuesday doesn't count. Like caucuses. And places near the Potomac River. And places that have black people. And places that have young people. And places that have old white people who vote for Obama. And places where Obama spends more money for advertising. And places that Obama wins.
So your post is just fundamentally flawed.
February 18, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Winning primaries and caucuses after Super Tuesday simply proves the Obama campaign is in its last throes.
February 18, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, that's insane.
Other then close politics followers, who of course would have already made up their minds I doubt many people will hear or care about this, but it is certainly funny. It's amazing to me that Hillary could be down there giving speeches and stuff and not know how the delegate selection worked. Crazy.
February 18, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's clear that even if a candidate were to win a majority of votes in Texas in the Democratic primary, that person is not necessarily going to win Texas in a general election. So to even have an election in Texas seems more like a shallow gambit by the Obama camp to grab more delegates and thus subvert the will of the American people who are voting for Hillary. If the DNC wanted to act with prudence and reason, they would call off this retched sham in Texas that purports to represent democracy and instead give the delegates to the candidate who currently leads in super-delegates, since they are the ones who truly know what is best for the party and the country.
February 18, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's clear that even if a candidate were to win a majority of votes in Texas in the Democratic primary, that person is not necessarily going to win Texas in a general election. So to even have an election in Texas seems more like a shallow gambit by the Obama camp to grab more delegates and thus subvert the will of the American people who are voting for Hillary. If the DNC wanted to act with prudence and reason, they would call off this retched sham in Texas that purports to represent democracy and instead give the delegates to the candidate who currently leads in super-delegates, since they are the ones who truly know what is best for the party and the country.
Spoken like a Republican. Obviously, we should only elect delegates from states we're sure we can win. How else can we ensure the Party will continue to lose the presidency?
Actually, the Texas Primary didn't exist before 1976. Texas used to choose all its delegates in precinct conventions. Used to be 3 to a Senate District, but for decades now the Democratic Party has used an allocation formula that rewards districts and states that vote Democratic more reliably. Would the Clintonistas be happier if those delegates were chosen at the Pct. Conv. instead? Didn't think so.
I don't like Hillary (she is my Senator), but before New Year's I at least assumed her staff knew how to run a campaign; apparently after Feb. 5 they pursued a Oh Holy S*** strategy, which requires the campaign to open offices in a state two weeks before the primary and then act surprised at the Delegate Selection Plan (which has been available for six months now and does not differ significantly from those used for the last two decades, but of course how would they know that?). But you're right, why let Democrats elect delegates in Texas? They might end up--horrors!--being represented at the National Convention. And of course, regular delegates aren't supposed to matter anymore anyway; it was all supposed to be a TV show, right?
February 18, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you missed the snark from our favorite preacher.
February 18, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
The WaPo hit piece conveniently fails to actually name their sources.
Kinda sorta reminds me of WaPo's propaganda campaign for Iraq.
But of course it fits the incompetence meme that the Clintons, despite their strong connections to the political establishment in Texas, were completely ignorant of the delegate apportionment system.
What trash.
I just hope that your seatbelts are tightened; WaPo is going to deploy the same tactics against Obama and Obama fans are in for a bumpy ride.
And honestly, I'll chortle at him as you now laugh at HRC.
February 18, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Preposterous. You've obviously never read a real hit piece. Find another hobby.
February 18, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you are incapable of seeing the basic lunacy behind the story (and remember Bill's legendary knowledge of election esoterica on a state by state basis?) then you need to get more than another hobby, you need to get a life outside Obamaland.
February 18, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
"and remember Bill's legendary knowledge of election esoterica on a state by state basis?"
Which has served them extraordinarily well up to now, right?
February 18, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
If by your comment you mean that Obama and HRC are in a near tie for the nomination, then yes.
And no HRC hasn't won it yet.
Nor has Obama. Or have you forgotten that important point in your sad little lemming rush to snark?
So I guess ypu must agree that Obama isn't all that smart either now is he?
February 18, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Are you saying none of this is true?
February 18, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am saying that, especially given the fact WaPo names no sources, it is highly unlikely that HRC's strategists were unaware of the Texas system.
The system has been in place for 20 years.
Bill Clinton ran and won with the Texas system in place.
Do you think it reasonable that they all forgotten that information over the past 12 years?
And in that unlikely event do you think no one from Texas, where they have deep and long lived relations with the party establishment, bothered to remind them?
I also think it likely that a lot of HRC supporters and low level staff knew nothing of this. My most generous guess is that the reporter is accidently elevating those nincompoops to a higher position in the campaign than they actually hold.
In truth I think it a hit piece.
February 18, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if it's a hit piece per se, but I'm picking up what you're puttin' down about the Clinton's not knowing this stuff. I don't buy it. They had to have known about this. It doesn't make sense.
February 18, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am an entheusiastic Obama supporter, but I am inclined to the same opinion as JTHB on this point. I find it very difficult to believe that the Clinton campaign did not know how TX apportions its delegates. Ask yourself how the WaPo could possibly know when Clinton or her strategists learned about the TX delegate rules. Does the WaPo possess time travel and mind-reading devices? The claim is 1) improbable and 2) impossible to prove even if true. As such, I am more inclined to regard this story as misinformation.
This prompts the question - why run a mess of misinformation?
Two possibilities leap to mind.
1) The reporter (or editor) involved has it in for Clinton and wants to make her look incompetant?
2) The Clinton campaign is looking at the rapidly shrinking margin of their lead in TX and is preparing the ground for their eventual loss there. Having made it into part of their turn-around strategy, they now need a rationalization to explain away their loss. As such, they get a staffer to go to the WaPo and slap his forehead and say "doh! we had no idea that the urban congressional districts get more delegates than the south Texas ones..."
I leave it to the reader to decide which of those two s/he finds more plausible.
February 18, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
As hard as it might seem, it is conceivable that the Clinton campaign can actually be this stupid. You have to remember all of the supreme screw ups so far, and this from the supposed all powerful Clinton Machine.
I think the one that strikes with frightening clarity is the campaign manager Doyle, that blew through 30 mil in Hillary's uncontested senate bid. If that wasnt enough supreme incompetence, Hillary then goes and makes her her presidential campaign manager.
Sorry, but the "It's hard to believe they didn't know about Texas" really isnt that hard to believe at all.
February 18, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ask yourself how the WaPo could possibly know when Clinton or her strategists learned about the TX delegate rules.
Simple. The story does say their source is someone who attended a closed-door meeting on the subject. If HRC and Mark Penn and all the high-level muckety-mucks at that meeting expressed surprise or otherwise indicated that this was new information to them, well, there you go.
No time-travel or mind-reading devices necessary.
February 18, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is also a possibility that they relegated TX primary to some low level staffer that was clueless about TX primary. This would imply that the staff is doing a poor job comunicating with each other and the oversight was not detected until their more seasoned staffer jumped on.
This is still mind blowing whether missinformation or poor comunication has left the Clintons poorly prepared for the TX caucus.
February 18, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm surprised at how easily they can get away with saying certain caucus' are so unfair. Especially with the excuse that low turnout in the past hurts them now.
Yah that's the flip-side of a 50 state strategy. When people in state feel their vote doesn't matter, they dont vote. Then along comes an instance where their vote is crucial but the numbers get messed up because nobody voted before.
Saying this is unfair for elections is pretty damned ironic.
February 18, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is not that certain caucuses are unfair it is that all caucuses are not very democratic.
This is an observation that has been made by a broad range of critics, not just the HRC campaign.
And I'm sure that given a bit of thought you will be able to imagine many reasons why they are less democratic than secret ballot elections.
February 18, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
ready on Day One my ass.
February 18, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
But soon we'll hear be hearing from Mark Penn that Texas doesn't matter - along with Red States, Caucus states, and states with large numbers of African-American states.
Maybe after March 4th the Clinton camp can ask that the rules of delegate allocation in Texas be changed...just to be sure that no one is disenfranchised.
February 18, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Check this out:
http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5010
As they say in Texas...Obama might win "Bigger than Dallas."
HRC might be a little light on cattle...
February 18, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link. I would say that the clintons have a big problem and obama may win texas with a wide margin. If that's the case adios clintons. Too funny, and she dissed wisconsin to appear in texas. I am laughing my a** off. Ready from day one. This explains alot, like why she didn't read the NIE that said the case for war was based on lies. Pathetic.
February 18, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let us say Clinton wins the primary portion of Texas, and Obama wins the caucus portion of Texas. What the hell happens then?
February 18, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's the question of the day, isn't it...I'm not sure why Texas has it set up like this.
February 18, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
The primary portion allocates two-thirds of the delegates while the caucus allocates one-third.
February 18, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think for a second the Clinton camp did not know about the Texas system. They want it widely reported that the vote in latino districts won't produce as many delegates as the vote in "urban" districts. Looks like they're laying the foundation for Bill to make his "they think they're better than you!" pitch to the voters, like he did in Vegas.
February 18, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
On second thought, it would appear this is the Clinton campaign's starting line-up of a defense in the event of a poor outcome in Texas. Do they know something we don't know...that it may not go as well as they'd hoped? That internal polls aren't as favorable? I don't believe anything they say at face value anymore. This "we're just learning" could be pure horseshit.
February 18, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hahaha, wow, this gives me a ton of faith in their ability to lead a nation. Kind of like when Hillary had no idea how much money their campaign had, and then blamed it all on her campaign manager, and then loaned $5 million to the campaign without telling her campaign manager, which you'd think would be kind of need to know information. Way to run your campaign like a high school talent show.
Super ready on Day One, haha.
February 18, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
wwjb,
My first thought when I read about this story was similar to yours; the Clinton campaign for President looks more and more like the Bush/Rumsfeld plan for Iraq. It is the lack of planning that will destroy you every time.
February 18, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are 126 primary election delegates at stake in Texas and 67 precinct convention delegates. If HRC got 50 percent of the primary delegates she would get 63 delegates under the rules and Barack would get the other 63. If Barack got all of the precinct convention -- or caucus -- delegates, he would get a total of 63 + 67 or 130 delegates. I can tell you, having attended Obama's precinct captain training on Saturday, that his campaign is acutely aware of the "Texas Two Step," and is going to be taking full advantage of it.
February 18, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Looks like they're laying the foundation for Bill to make his "they think they're better than you!" pitch to the voters, like he did in Vegas."
Except Bill isn't running...bringing him into the political fray doesn't seem to work as well now as it did in Vegas.
HRC was the one giving him the Gunsmoke challenge. What did she say? Something like "come on down to Texas?"
Obama has run a superior campaign, plain and simple. It is an example of his leadership capabilities against an "experienced, vetted, and seasoned" candidate. This bodes well for any potential White House leadership style.
February 18, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Frankly, it makes me want to cry with frustration. The Democratic nomination process is complicated, but it ain't rocket science. All this information is publicly available; all you've got to do is Google it up and read it through. There are only two possibilities: either no one at Clinton HQ had bothered to check how things in Texas worked, or the local Clinton folks on the ground in Texas knew but weren't able to pass the crucial information up the chain. I'm not sure which alternative is more profoundly discouraging.
The article itself quotes three state senators decrying the essential unfairness of the delegate allocation system, and it's clear that not one of them has bothered to think through their objections. Consider: Sen. Hinojosa complains that Clinton could win the popular vote and lose the delegate count. Well, yes. But why? Sen. Lucio provides an answer. He's aggrieved that Hispanic districts, which generate a greater share of the turnout in primaries than in general elections, are allocated delegates based on their performance in the generals. And Sen. Gallegos adds that the problem is there are few seriously contested general elections.
So let's add those objections up. What the Clinton supporters are saying is that general elections are a poor way to measure the distribution of Democrats in Texas, because many of them only bother to vote in the primaries, figuring that their votes in the general don't matter. And that's behavior the party ought to reward? Allocating the delegates based on the primary turnout would somehow be more fair?
There's also a rather conspicuous ommission from these objections, lurking just beneath the surface. I can't believe the Washington Post doesn't spell it out, but maybe the reporter doesn't understand what's really being said, either. The true objection is this: In Texas, black voters reliably turn out in both the primaries and the general elections in numbers disproportionate to their population. Hispanics turn out in numbers lower than their share of the population would suggest in the primaries, and that percentage drops even lower in the generals. That's right - this is a racially-tinged struggle, being waged without reference to race. You won't find the word 'black' anywhere in the WashPost piece. But when they write that Obama may fare well in "the more urban districts," that's code for "more black." Why can't the WashPost spell this out?
If you want a detailed account of the problems with the selection process, click on my name at the end of this post, and read the most recent entry on my blog. I'll be the last to defend the fairness of the present delegate allocation system. But I am thoroughly sick and tired of election-eve objections being voiced, as though those who object have just discovered these flaws. It's a flawed process, but we can't change the rules at the eleventh hour. Nor is it appropriate to attempt to delegitamize the results of a given primary, simply because the process runs against one's present interests. The Clinton campaign, which had assumed it would run most strongly in core Democratic areas, was conspicuously silent before the Call to Convention was issued, despite its strong influence over many DNC members. Frankly, Hillary was counting on black support, and had no reason to object to the formulas that assigned extra weight to heavily Democratic districts. The time to revise these rules is after the race is won, not now in the thick of things.
February 18, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm here in our Fort Bend office and was working out of a volunteer office in downtown Houston before this one opened up, and I have to say, a week before Clinton strategists were "discovering" this "new obstacle", we were training thousands of volunteers on the rules, blanketing our precincts with calls and canvassers and making sure our supporters knew to vote early, to come back to caucus, etc etc.
Ready on Day 1, indeed.
February 18, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
"and remember Bill's legendary knowledge of election esoterica on a state by state basis?"
But isn't the current situation a result of Delay's crazy power grab in TX? The redistricting he forced through? If so, then rules have changed since Bill ran.
February 18, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right about the redistricting...
As for Bill, well, I guess he's slept since that happened.
February 18, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Before making your foolish and snarky insults you might bother to learn that the system has been in place for two decades.
February 18, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, he's not right about the redistricting. This is entirely a Texas Democratic Party system, DeLay has nothing to do with it.
February 18, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
TO repeat for those unfamiliar with the process: Delegates in Texas are apportioned by State Senate district, not Cong. district. DeLay may not go to heaven, but this is a result of a GOP legislature packing black voters into a few districts; this is why the vote will run up so high.
February 18, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Again,
The delegate apportionment is based entirely upon turnout from the 2004 and 2006 general elections in particular state senate districts, a process designed by the Texas Democratic Party. The districts with the most delegates are the most politically active within the party, and in this particular primary, the demographics of those politically-active districts strongly favor Obama. While the drawing of the senate districts lines was done by DeLay, he, in fact, has no control on Democratic turnout, which is what is benefitting Senator Obama.
February 18, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ploy ... It's just gotta be a ploy. I find it very hard to believe that HillaryCamp didn't know this. Seems to me that they're just trying to get news stories out about it to, once again, lower expectations.
February 18, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
If they plan to run the country like they run their campaign ... god help us!
Between McCain's bankrupcies and Clinton's miscalculations, I think Obama's looking like the smart leader.
February 18, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
... not the first important report she didn't bother studying. Too bad young American soldiers have had to die due to her other lack of priorities... (neglected to read the intelligence report before voting for war)...
Still, there are a lot of folks who have decided it is more important to reelect the mobsters who have been destroying our democracy, than to try something different.. (see definition of insanity) IMHO
February 18, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Q: How do you know when the Clinton camp is lying?
A: When they open their mouths.
Yet another sham ploy, expectations-game excuse making. They knew the rules, they just spin their losses in advanced to avoid humiliation.
February 18, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is exactly what I'm thinking...it's a big lie, a set-up for a softer landing for Clinton when she either loses the Texas election or does much poorer than expected. Clinton's camp is not stupid, it's aware it may not do well there and it's preparing the Big Claim that the poor showing will be because Texas rules are "unfair." I can smell the sour grapes now...
February 18, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno about that. Why emphasize that texas was your fire wall if you knew that you would get hammered in texas? Why fly to texas after getting hammered in VA? Why not fly to ohio instead? Or better yet wisconsin, where you have a shot to stop the momentum? Why not have a strategy after 2/5? Why not campaign and advertise in all 2/5 states?
More and more the clintons' campaign is looking like the keystone cops. I truly believe that they did not know about their texas problems.
Next thing you know she will be riding around in a tank with an oversized helmet.
February 18, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think they knew they'd get hammered there. After all, a couple of weeks ago when she started all this firewall bunk, the polls were in her favor. But internal polling...we're not privy to that. And while I don't know a damned thing about what's really going on (do any of us armchair analysts?), I don't trust their claim of innocence and shock/awe over the rules, so I thoroughly suspect they've come to see their comfortable lead take a nosedive.
February 18, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
We do not need to be privy to her internal polls to know that Texas is trending away from her. The polls there are showing her lead narrowing to within the margin of error. There are two weeks to go (an eternity in politics) and if (as seems likely) he wins in both Wisconsin and Hawaii tomorrow, he will go into this election as the guy with "momentum" (read favorable media narrative). It is possible that, during the debates, he might propose to outlaw baseball or some such, but barring that sort of gaffe it is hard to see how his numbers anywhere go down or hers go up. That is to say, one does not need to see her internal polls to know that her campaign has reason to be worried at this point.
February 18, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
After reading carefully, one sees that it isn't the rules themselves, but how they play out in the intersection of demographics that usually vote Republican (Hispanics heavily supported Bush). Hillary is expecting to win in Bush districts, but longstanding Dem rules have given delegates to Democratic districts... Oops.
February 18, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not surprising. Remember, they never anticipated campaigning past Super Tuesday. Why bother learning the rules of Texas?
It sure seems to me that the Clinton campaign thus far can be summarized with the slogan: "It's not FAIR!"
February 18, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought they had that Icky guy, you know, the "delegate expert" who voted for the rule banning FL and MI delegates before he voted against it.
February 18, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
"No, he's not right about the redistricting. This is entirely a Texas Democratic Party system, DeLay has nothing to do with it."
Thanks! I (she,me) is wrong.
I agree, it makes no sense Clinton wouldn't know about this. Perhaps this might have been leaked to lower expectations? I don't know.
Or maybe Bill Clinton realized last week the strategists didn't understand the rules and was part of the team which explained it to them?
I'm supporting Obama, but I have a lot of respect for both Clintons. They might have made the mistake of not planning ahead, but Bill is a very smart man, I can't believe he wouldn't understand rules of a state he campaigned in albeit years ago.
February 18, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for posting that link - I was about to do the same. Stories like the one on BOR pretty much show that statewide polling in TX is somewhat irrelevant.
February 18, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, while I take your point that primaries are a more pure form of democracy than caucuses (both are a verion if it, and both fall short in some ways) I think you'll find that "secret ballots" are rare to non-existent in Democratic primaries. DNC rules designate that ballots must be signed, the rationale being that party members should demonstrate the courage of their political convictions and public support for their candidate. I think there are good arguments against this, but that is the system in place.
Which brings me back to the main point- in winning an election it doesn't matter at all which system is PREFERABLE, the question all candidates should be asking is how they can win under the system that exists. I'm an Obama supporter and I can tell you that the campaign has looked closely at the systems in place in every state they've gone to and developed an approach that suits both the system and the politics of that state. I had previously assumed that of course the Clinton campaign was doing the same thing (seemed like a "well d'uh" to me) but now it seems, perhaps not...
I have participated in both Caucuses and Primaries, for what it's worth - and I agree with the argument that caucuses require a very particular kind of dedication. Personally, I love them. But the time to argue about this was before the election, while states are setting their delegate selection rules. And before you scream that no one ever does this, let me quickly interject that I gave feedback to my state party about my concerns over their delegate selection rules back in March of 2007, so it is transparently not impossible to do so. The reality is that the Hillary campaign thought the rules that had been created would favor her, and they have not yet recovered from the discover that Obama can still win.
February 18, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now in all fairness, no Democrat has campaigned for President in Texas since the '80's. It's no wonder the rules are unfamiliar.
In 20 years of living here, I have never seen an ad for a Democratic national candidate. I am seeing the nightly now. And this is for a primary!! I wouldn't be at all surprised if Texas was in play in November!
February 18, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
From your lips to God's own ears. That said, I will eat my shoes if TX goes blue in Nov. I just do not believe that either democrat will win a single southern state.
February 18, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is hated by the hard-core right-wingers, of whom we have plenty of here. Many will stay home or go some third route (Paul? Huckster?). They will never admit a mistake.
Remember, even the establishment party candidate for Governor won with less than 40% (OK, a 4-way race, but he took, if memory serves, only around 33-35% of the vote, and he was the incumbent). They are looking for another path, and if they don't see one they like, they will stay home.
February 18, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't be so sure Greg. The repugs really hate McCain. I was listening to Ed Schultz where he was stating how many repugs are swapping McCain anger blowup stories. His supposedly "liberal" staces aside, the repugs are really afraid to let this hothead anywhere need the "button".
That said their only choice would be Obama who has a wide range appeal.
February 18, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Clinton internal polls may not be coming in to their liking so they may be putting out this kind of stuff to excuse a bad showing in advance. In various forms, this has been their MO everywhere, to say this doesn't really mean anything because...(you fill in the blank). I wonder if this kind of stuff really does bucks Alan Patricof et. al. and keep the omney flowing.
February 18, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I could believe that this is a spin by HRC's camp except that it doesn't work as spin.
Just read the comments and their gleeful assumption that it is yet more proof of HRC incompetence. Perhaps unintended consequences, but I don't think so.
The problem is that either HRC wins Texas or she doesn't. Arcane rules of delegate apportionment will have zilch coverage either way on the night of March 4th.
The story line has been built that Texas is a must win state for her, this was reinforced by her own campaign, and failure to win will be almost universally seen as the last nail in her coffin.
If someone can explain how big yawn tales of delegate count systems will overrule "Hillary Loses Texas" I'll be really grateful.
February 18, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right, but what folks are saying is that this may reflect an effort to undo that "TX is a must win" line. We have certainly seen such efforts before, where Giuliani (for instance) at first suggested that he needed to win FL, and then when his poll numbers there started to drop a few weeks before the primary, he reversed that claim and said that he did not need to win there. This "we had no idea how TX apportions delegates" line might be the beginning of an attempt by the campaign to back away from the "TX is a must win" line. Or it might just be misinformation planted by a hostile reporter/editor. One way or the other, I agree with you that it is totally implausible that the Clinton folks really only just learned of this apportionment system.
February 18, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the problem with this being an attempt to discount or downplay a Texas loss is the math.
Without a good Texas win HRC simply can't come near enough Obama in delegate count to offer a convincing argument to super delegates at the convention. And of course it would destroy her "but I won the big states" defense.
I guess it's conceivable that HRC is simply wanting to soften that blow but I doubt it and even so can't see how arcane delegate count ameliorates her losing.
The headlines on March 5th will read either "She Lives" or "RIP HRC".
February 18, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Greg's partly right. Hillary is surveying the field, and although a decent win in Ohio is still within her grasp, Texas now looks likely to produce (at best) an ambiguous result. So she's shifting her argument. She wants her performance to be judged by the popular vote in Texas, which she remains likely to win. It's probably also a signal of a broader shift. If Hillary can make a claim to the popular vote on March 5, by adding her votes that day to tallies from Florida (and if necessary, Michigan) I suspect she'll do so. That'll become her target here - winning the popular vote, in an effort to keep the superdelegates in play. And if you count Michigan and Florida, and ignore the caucus states where we don't have even a flawed popular vote tally, she's got a decent chance of pulling that off.
But I do think there's a second factor at work here. I've noticed a tendency on these boards to overestimate political campaigns. They're chaotic. Internal communications tend to be fairly poor. Staffers are worked to the bone, overtired, and somewhat overwhelmed. I can easily see someone dropping the ball on this. No one expected Texas to be in play. The local folks assumed national knew; the national office didn't bother to find out. And, just a couple weeks ago, they awoke to a highly unfavorable political landscape.
So put those narrative together. The Clinton campaign knew a couple weeks ago that they'd dropped the ball, and that Texas wasn't going to be a cake-walk, but polls still showed a massive lead, and Hillary's support among Hispanics seemed likely to carry her through. Certainly, there was no advantage to leaking a story that would reflect negatively on the campaign, and it was still worth citing Texas as a firewall. But now, with tightening polls, it looks like Texas may not produce a delegate margin worth citing after all. And so the Clinton campaign needs to delegitamize the delegate count, and shift the focus over to the popular vote. They weren't going to sell this story to the WashPost as straight spin - but as a behind-the-scenes process story, it was bound to get good play. So now it's worth it to them to take the perceptual hit that the story entails - a campaign in disarray - particularly because Maggie Williams can blame it all on Patti Solis Doyle. It's the price they pay for selling the story and shifting the focus to the popular vote.
That, at least, is how I see it.
February 18, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
this is EXCELLENT NEWS FOR HILLARY!!!
!!!HILLMENTUM™!!!!
Feel IT!!
February 18, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, just another clear example of Hillary "being ready from day one".
Isn't it clear by now that Hillery is just as bad a manager as the current Mope in Chief!
February 18, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes Greg, but if we are going to complete the Giuliani comparison...he might have said Florida didn't matter when his numbers dropped...but after he still didn't win that state he dropped out.
I hope the analogy holds true. I hope this terrible campaign that makes Democratic strategists nauseous at the thought of how this inevitable candidate who conveniently maintained the last name Clinton (despite Billy Boy being a well-known womanizer)could have screwed up so badly. PEACE!
February 18, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with Greg. While I think it is possible that they weren't paying any attention to TX, I think this is going to be a deliberate attempt to say "Texas doesn't count" --not to spin the public, but rather the superdelegates. "See, Hillary WOULD have won, but the [rules, systems, populations] are all stacked up against her." I mean if there were no small states, no caucuses, no open primaries, no young voters, no black people, no white men, no cities, and no states where Obama was on the ballot Hillary would totally be winning this thing!
Some supers might be understandably nervous about looking like they are handing someone the nomination, but perhaps the campaign feels they can frame it in such a way to say it really should be Hillary's.
Before this article, when I've seen TV reports on the funny TX system, they said it was a result of the Delay redistricting--perhaps not the system itself, but the effect.
That HRC's campaign was geared toward having been wrapped up on super tuesday seems to be a fairly common belief, and a logical one. I don't see it as a smear, really.
February 18, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton somehow gets the Michigan and Florida delegations seated to steal the Democratic nomination, someone should clue Penn & Williams in about this wacky "Electoral College" thingamajig.
February 18, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just asked Mark Penn about that, Tag, and he said "Don't be silly, college voters don't count."
February 18, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
You might accuse Obama of using lines from a fervent supporter, but I suppose you might want to check Hillary Clinton's use of Obama's stump slogans and rhetoric as the campaign swung in his favor.
Obama using the line first:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=SHfbKTiUH8U
Clinton ripping it off:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=rweVOO-fhug
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRQD-MsSpfI
'Yes we will??' C'mon Hillary... that's disgraceful
February 18, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg, I could see Tennessee and Arkansas very close contests for Hillary. Also I think Obama would have a very good chance in Virginia. Just a thought.
February 18, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I make no pretense of having any special insight on AR or TN. I spend a lot of time in those states, but only in some parts and I do not live there, merely visit. That said, my impression is that if Clinton can win Arkansas in the general election she will need only one more miracle to qualify for sainthood. Meanwhile, Al Gore is a native son of TN, and even he could not carry the state, so I have dim hopes of Clinton pulling off a victory there.
February 18, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are worried that convoluted delegate rules in Texas could water down the impact of strong support for her among Hispanic voters there, creating a new obstacle for her in the must-win presidential primary contest.
Several top Clinton strategists and fundraisers became alarmed after learning of the state's unusual provisions during a closed-door strategy meeting this month, according to one person who attended.
"Several" strategists and fundraisers became alarmed, not the entire Clinton camp and this claim was based on the word of one attendee.
Much ado about nothing.
February 18, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I said before, I don't care if Hillary camp is spinning as long as they're not winning.
Keep spinning, keep loosing. Good motto.
BTW- I thought this comment from State Rep. Rafael Anchia (D-Dallas) posted on burntorange was brilliant and worth a read:
"Our main focus should not be on who can appeal to which racial or ethnic group more than another, but which candidate can unite all races, ethnicities, age groups, faiths and economic classes as a nation to address our common challenges and to restore our historic position as a respected leader of the free world.
I am the Latino son of immigrants, but, rather than engaging in the contrived politics of division, I want Barack Obama, a black man of mixed ethnicity, to be my president. How's that for the politics of hope?"
February 18, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nelly Bly - If Clinton is not worried, she should be.
It's a fact that the number of delegates from each Precinct is decided by turnout for past elections, and that does not favor Clinton.
I'd love to see Hillary somehow come out and say the "rules" are "unfair".
This is the same person putting all her eggs in the "automatic" Super Delegates, and anyone who says these people should affirm the popular vote is immediately derided as someone who does not understand the "rules."
Of course, what else should we expect from someone who says they are in favor of following rules while trying to seat Michigan and Florida voters!
February 18, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is hardly "much ado about nothing" if Hillary wins the popular vote but comes up short on the delegate count. Worse yet, if she loses both because she is not putting her resources in the right districts.
The irony here is that her campaign were very vocal about OH/TX/PA being crucial states for them, and to be revealed as less than well-informed about Texas gerrymandering (the reason for this atrocity), is pretty embarrassing.
Worse it could be a bump on the road when trying to raise funds for a campaign team that does not inspire confidence.
Lovely picture by the way. A good fit for the screen name of Nelly Bly, aka Elizabeth Jane Cochran.
February 18, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Texas! You are second class, unless you vote for Hillary.
A co-chairman of Hillary's Michigan campaign and has a line that's sure to drive a whole bunch of red state governor's up the wall:
"Superdelegates are not second-class delegates," says Joel Ferguson, who will be a superdelegate if Michigan is seated. "The real second-class delegates are the delegates that are picked in red-state caucuses that are never going to vote Democratic."
February 18, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is such a concerted attack from Obama camp that "missinformation" fails to inform and one has to use the word "conspiracy". One Obama supporter says that Bill Clinton couldn't know the rules because Delay changed them recently, and another one (abroadabroad) is trying to transform that stupidity into common wisdom. They are both willfully ignorant, but the narrative spreads. That is a republican method and they should know better.
I am not supporting either at this point, but I find the Obama strategy repugnant
February 18, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Delay's redistricting moves did affect the congressional districting, not only the state seneate districting. Rep. Lloyd Dogget (in Austin) was one Democratic congressman whose district was changed (Travis County)
From 08.11.2006 Austin Chronicle:
http://www.austinchronicle.com/gyrobase/Issue/story?oid=oid%3A394224
"Take Rep. Lloyd Doggett. Last Friday, Doggett was told he now represents a 25th Congressional District that – while Travis County-centric – clearly tilts more to the right. As Doggett calculates it, 200,000 people in this new district have never seen Lloyd Doggett's name on a ballot and about half were not part of his district last Thursday.
And though Doggett now represents most of Travis Co., the lines are drawn in ways that aren't necessarily to his advantage."
Discussion or speculation about who it helps/hinders in this presidential primary is not some conspiracy or effort to misinform anyone; the impact either way is unknown as of yet. As the BurntOrange report link explained, and many on this post have pointed out, the delegate count is linked to voter turnout in previous general elections. While redistricting is not a big factor in the primary, it will be in the general election where districts like Dogget's, which are anchored firmly in democratic territory, can go red because democratic support has been diluted by redistricting. That was Mr. Delay's handiwork, and it was focused both on tilting power in the state to the GOP and rounding up and securing more GOP congressional seats.
I do not believe that any change in the districting has happened since 2006, but I could of course be mistaken. I no longer live in Travis County.
The good news is that the corrupt scumbag Tom Delay is no longer around to dabble in gerrymandering. That is not common wisdom, it is a fact.
February 18, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The real reason this is a problem for HRC and why I dont think it is a spin-game, although it could be somewhat is that HRC is toast unless she racks up a sizable delegate count from TX & OH.
She is behind 130-150 pledged delegates (depending on your source). After the Mar 4 primaries 80% of the delegates will have been awarded. Of the remaining states, there are only 3 sizable delgate ones, PA(158), NC(115) and IN(71). PA favors HRC, NC favors BHO and IN is a toss-up. The remaining states are about equally split btwn HRC, BHO and a few toss-ups.
At best HRC can probably gain 50 or so delegates from post 3/5 states and that is truly a rosy scenerio unless something major changes.
Which means HRC has to make up 80-100 delegates on Mar 4. A 20pt win in OH would net her at most 30 delegates, so she needs 50-70 out of TX.
To get 50 delegates under this system, she needs to win by almost 30 pts in each contest type.
Keep in mind that she only got 45 incremental delegates out of NY, a larger state, her home state, with normal rules.
Pledged delegates are the only ones that matter at this point because there are enough remaining supers that have chosen not to endorse until the campaign becomes more definitive. Which means what happens in the nt few months will likely sway them as well.
So, this is indeed a problem for HRC, especially as she is only leading in the TX polls by 10% or so.
February 18, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point!
February 18, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even my 8yo understands that to argue that you are ready to lead the United States, and not know the rules in Texas, is no sound arguement at all.
February 18, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was authorized so not plagiarism.
February 18, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
See this link regarding today's CNN-related polling in Texas. I think we can conclude, for once and for all, that this race is closer than ever and Clinton's folks are SPINNING, SPINNING, SPINNING...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/18/poll.texas/index.html
February 18, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be plagiarism--according to the accepted laws of the land, and laid out by my good ol' copy of the MLA--a direct lift must be cited back to the original source...
...or the original source must give express permission.
Deval Patrick gave express permission.
Thus, this is not plagiarims.
You lose. As a Clintonite, you should be used to it.
February 18, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this "plagiarism" ploy is the best that the Clinton campaign can come up with, then you start to understand why they were so incompetent about understanding the basic rules about Texas' primary.
Wow, are they terrible campaign managers. Do they really expect this will make any voter think of Obama in a bad light? All they're doing is highlighting for everyone over and over again that he's a great speaker! Hey, voters, don't think about how inspirational Obama is. Hey, I said DON'T think about it! Dammit, what's wrong with you voters, don't you know you should be voting for the boring candidate with "substance"??? Geez, you must be from a red state or something.
50%+1 and anything to win, huh? What a GREAT idea. Just what this country and the Dem party need right about now. And then to throw such incompetent management into the mix... I'm really hoping she doesn't win now. That kind of incompetence and partisanship and divisiveness isn't anything this country needs anymore.
February 18, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a point.
Saturday at a County convention seeking to elect delegates to the State Convention which Obama now holds a 3 to 1 advantage I am going to present to the Clinton delegation the idea to move over to Obama in the first effort of party unity. We are seeking all four delegates to the national convention and many of the Clinton delegates are ambivalent. This movement from the grass roots must begin and start electing Obama delegates and the idea that Clinton's nomination strategy is evident even to them. They have had no support, no assistance and now after promising lunch they have reniged....because they have no money.
February 18, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm wondering if TPM has announced it's support for the Obama campaign. I've noticed that there seems to be more photos and positive coverage of Obama, and more unfavorable commentary about the Clinton camp on this site. Reading some of the commentary from Josh, it seems that he has personal issues with some of the Clinton camp. I don't have a problem with TPM choosing one candidate over the other, but TPM should at least declare it publicly. If you are claiming balanced coverage of both candidates, I don't see it!!!
February 18, 2008 11:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not voting for the best campaign staff, or the best slogan, or the best media game, or the best IT whizzes among the candidates' supporters. I'm trying to keep the Republicans from 8 more years. Or from having 4 years of a failed Democratic president who ensures 16 more years of what we're coming out of.
The Republicans and the MSM have delivered us Obama on a platter, but it's a poison chalice. The antidote is a convention confected Hillary-Obama ticket. That would give us a good shot at 16 years of prosperity. The alternative is bleak.
February 19, 2008 8:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am an author and former academic and know more about plagiarism than most people.
This is not an example of plagiarism but parallelism, prompted by Deval Patrick--a friend of Obama's--being hit with the same charge that Obama was: all talk and no action.
He used similar phrasing, and quoted great lines from American history that are commonly quoted by politicians and non-politicians. There's nothing dishonest about it. Yes, he could have prefaced it and said, "My friend Governor Patrick was charged with being all talk, and I'll echo his reply--"
But as a very experienced public speaker, I can tell you that it would have spoiled the rhythm of the speech, and he could also have planned to say it and in the heat of the speech forgotten. It happens, even with a prepared text. But allusions to other people can make you sound pedantic, and I think he made the right choice, conscious or not.
That people are making a big deal of this shows the utter hopeless desperation of the Clinton campaign. Did Obama steal whole paragraphs of someone's speech? No? We're talking about a few lines that are parallel.
And for all those who have suddenly become experts in plagiarism, it becomes a real issue not in speeches, but in printed material where copyrights are involved, as when David Leavitt was successfully sued by Stephen Spender for plagiarizing from Spender's memoir, and the book was pulped.
February 19, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
It was most definitely authorized. Deval is a friend of Barack Obama.
February 19, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
wow, the clinton campaign is totally unorganized. she has all of these wonderful ideas, but can she implement them? if i use her campaign as an example of her ability to organize and move an organization, i give her a 3 on a scale from 1-10, 10 being the highest.
poor performance hillary. and i thought you would be ready on day one?
February 19, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink