Gallup: Obama Holds Double-Digit National Lead For First Time
Here's a surprising number from the new Gallup Poll: Obama has, for the first time in Gallup polling, taken a double-digit lead over Hillary among national Dems. He leads her 51%-39%.
Separately, in another startling finding, nearly three out of four Dems say Obama will be the nominee (73%), versus only a fifth (20%) who say Hillary will.
Obama holds a much slimmer lead in Gallup's national tracking poll, but as MyDD's Jonathan Singer, who first flagged these numbers, points out, the stand-alone poll appears to be bigger "news," which "could serve to reinforce the meme that Obama is pulling ahead" and is running away with the race.
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And, I'll say it again, just to be consistent. These national polls don't mean squat. I said it when the clintons were up and I'll say it with obama being up. By the way the state polls are getting meaningless as well. The only poll that matters is on election day.
February 25, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, except to say they do help answer the question, "If the general election were held today, who between Clinton and Obama would be the stronger candidate?"
Could something major happen between now and November to alter their chances? Of course. Clinton could release her tax records. McCain could buy the farm. We could find out that Obama is a cyborg from the future. Who knows...
Furthermore, the polls themselves do have a way of shaping public opinion.
February 25, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bah, who cares about national average polls. I would trade a 40 point lead in the national average for a 9 point lead in TX or OH. Those are the battles that really matter right now.
February 25, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm... I wonder if this reflects the latest "Hillary finding her voice" stunts and its public relations impact in rejuvenating her campaign.
February 25, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe also that pollster has gotten confirmation from Gallup in the past that they use different screens for the single-shot polls than they do for national tracking, IIRC the tracking poll is only of registered Dems or is a slack voter screen, which could explain the disparity
February 25, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just because someone wins the votes of democratic voters, it doesn't mean that that candidate will win the general election.
Where's Matt Weaver? Can he tell us how this is great news for Hillary? I'm trying to find the silver lining here.
February 25, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! for HILLARY!!
February 25, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who gives a crap about a national poll? What about the PPP poll in Ohio? It shows a 4 point race. I'd be interested to see what the internals look like (and if they should be discounted for some reason).
February 25, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Missed the earlier post on the PPP poll.
February 25, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does that mean the Nation doesn't matter? Obama has proven ONLY that he can win in Democratic Primaries, but he's won NONE of the Republican ones. Clearly this is good news for Clinton!
February 25, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
February 25, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
National poll numbers matter because the Democratic party cares about what the voters want, and because it would be much harder to pull of a victory for Clinton if Obama is shown to be far ahead by a consensus of national polling.
February 25, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
"National poll numbers matter because the Democratic party cares about what the voters want, and because it would be much harder to pull of a victory for Clinton if Obama is shown to be far ahead by a consensus of national polling."
Exactly.. and something tells me the party elders are going to meet soon, if they haven't already, and tell the Clintons to grow up and face reality if they want to have a place in the party.
February 25, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, as long as the party elders don't force her to don "Muslim garb" in their Elders' Ceremony, she should be fine, right?
February 25, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
MUST READ. Insightful analysis of the revealing exchange between Dems in Texas last week.....
http://blog.psaonline.org/2008/02/25/the-clinton-obama-exchange-you-might-have-missed/
February 25, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that pic of him in the cowboy hat will help him wrest the female vote, the handsome devil. LOL
February 25, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I commend the Obama campaign from showing her in pant suits (over and over again). I mean, we all know what THAT means.
: )
Anyway, I'll leave it at this...
YES WE CAN!
February 25, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm stunned by today's polling results. They almost been converted from my inveterate pessimism. I did say almost.
You go, Obama! Damn!
February 25, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
It may not mean anything, but it sure is awesome to hear that Democrats prefer Obama by 73%!
I thought the only reason Obama was winning because of spoiler Republicans...
February 25, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only 23,000 more donations are needed to put Obama over a million contributors in this race!
His campaign is putting out the call for anyone who hasn't donated before to consider donating at least five bucks, to help him reach this important milestone before the Texas and Ohio race!
New contributor's donations right now are being matched by prior donors, so you can make twice the difference.
Be one in a million... and give Obama five for running a decent, honorable campaign!
February 25, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html
RCP avg is now +6 for Obama
Highest poll showing +16 for Obama
February 25, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just like George W. Bush has the 20 percent who still think he's doing a great job, there are the Hillary 20 percenters. Despite what the 20 percenters here say about "polls not meaning squat" or "the only poll that matters is the one on election day," it's all bad news for Hillary. From the last few election days, the polls showed Senator Obama ahead, but on election day, he won in blow outs. Keep up the attacks 20 percenters, like your candidate.
February 25, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the size of the lead in the tracking poll will certainly not be "news" tomorrow as the NY Times/CBS poll mirrors the Gallup results. The Times has Obama leading 54-38. Oddly they decide to spin this as an article about who Democrats think can beat McCain.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/26/us/politics/26cnd-poll.html?hp
February 25, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Meme" MyDD NOW
POLL: CBS/Times National
CBS News/New York Times
National
Obama 54, Clinton 38
Obama 50, McCain 38... Clinton 46, McCain 46
February 25, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
What goes up must come down
spinning wheel got to go round
Talking about your troubles it's a crying sin
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel spin
You got no money, and you, you got no home
Spinning wheel all alone
Talking about your troubles and you, you never learn
Ride a painted pony
let the spinning wheel turn
Did you find a directing sign
on the straight and narrow highway?
Would you mind a reflecting sign
Just let it shine within your mind
And show you the colours that are real
Someone is waiting just for you
spinning wheel is spinning true
Drop all your troubles, by the river side
Catch a painted pony
On the spinning wheel ride
Someone is waiting just for you
spinning wheel is spinning true
Drop all your troubles, by the river side
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel fly
February 26, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink