And seeing as how inaccurate the exit polls have been, I wouldn't go singing that song too fast.

I have to say, and I hope that media pundits agree with me even though I know that they will pretend to know what's going on, I have no idea what's going on.

In MA, the networks talk about how Clinton gets the urban areas and Obama gets the rural areas. In MO, the networks talk about how how Obama gets the urban areas and Clinton gets the rural areas. In some states (CA), the women go for Clinton. In other states (GA) the women split evenly. I volunteered for the Obama campaign in NYC today, and I heard every reason that's ever been offered about why Obama is the better candidate and every reason that's ever been offered about why Clinton's the better candidate. As far as I can tell 50% thinks that one candidate has better policies, 50% thinks that one candidate is more electable, and 50% thinks that one candidate will be able to get more done in office.

A few things are clear--black voters prefer Obama, and older voters prefer Clinton. Beyond that, it's an unholy mess. A beautiful, democratic mess, I suppose, but a mess nonetheless. I have no idea how this is going to pan out.

Thxs for the link, brumby. Excitin' stuff there in ABQ... three more precincts left to report and Clinton has a 117 vote lead.

Off topic, but can we get that thinly veiled piece of racist drivel from TPM reader "SM" off the home page? It's offensive, guys. Seriously.

Agree w/Kenny. A late-night scotch-fueled rant has no business on the front page.

Yes... it was a tie.

Out of over 15 million voters, Clinton came out with less then 40,000 more. If that's not a tie, I don't know what is. Obama's huge wins in rural states almost makes up for his loss in California.

We'll see how the delagates play out.

Kenny, there's nothing thinly veiled about that rant from "SM". The only reason I havn't email to ask for it to be removed is that SM is a perfect example of who needs to be overcome this election, and why. Not only does SM not want to get by the polarizing racial definitions that plague so much of this country, he aggressively wants to push Barack Obama into cynical ideological box that this anonymous person created with the limitations of his own imagination of fear of real change.

He's the type of person that simply doesn't get what Barack is attempting to accomplish, and who he is trying to be for this nation, or why. Therefore, to SM, Obama is "ignoring" race. And to someone with SM’s mindset this makes Obama unrealistic and in his opinion somehow less aggressive and less desirable as a leader than a bitter, unapologetic race-baiter.

SM is the type of person who wants to slice up the population, assign them nametags like "brown vote", rank them economically and play them against one another. He's the type of person that thinks that Hillary Clinton essentially saying that it's ok for blacks in this country to be suspicious of Latinos because those darn illegals are stealing all their jobs is a good and politically smart thing to say. He’s the type of person that has no idea that THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT OBAMA’S ENTIRE CAMPAIGN IS PREDICATED AGAINST. He simply doesn’t get, “Yes we can”.

It doesn't take a Klan membership to be a racist. Most of the time today, racism shows up in the attitudes and opinions of everyday people around us. It’s hidden, not always seen, but very frequently there. Unfortunately, both Clintons have shown me that they are more than willing to use the issue of race like a cudgel to try to beat back what they consider an upstart challenger and maintain the status-quo. In doing so, they continue to create a world very negatively defined by race.

Obama is attempting to move beyond this, redefine political conventional wisdom, and live out Dr. King's legacy. He’s attempting to govern Americans in an inclusive manner that’s not defined solely by race or region or economic bracket. It's a message I gravitate to, but clearly it's one that seems to threaten some people out there. People like SM.

Hillary Clinton has inundated herself with identity politics. She’s done everything she can to rally behind the You Go Girl flag. She’s pushed the black vs white and the brown vs black buttons. She’s done what she can to box in Obama, and he refuses to be boxed in. SM sincerely resents this, and for this reason, it’s important to remember that people like SM exist. And for me, it’s important to remember one of the many reasons why I feel that Obama’s run for the White House is a very important one. And the next time someone says, “no you can’t”, I’ll just smile.

This is a pretty stunning defeat for Obama. In the primary (as opposed to caucus) states that will be heavily contested in the general election, Hillary either won substantially, or tied. Obama is looking much more successful than he really is solely on the basis of "caucus" states, where it does not appear that Clinton put much effort at all. (I mean, 'bragging rights' for winning caucuses in Idaho, North Dakota, Kansas, and Alaska?)

re: SM....

while I wasn't thrilled with his tone, I think his point is valid. Obama is doing "well" with white DEMOCRATIC voters (and indepedents who choose to vote in the Dem primary), but we need to keep in mind that one of the reasons we are democrats is that we reject the politics of racial polarization. How we vote as Democrats is not indicative of how the rest of America will vote -- especially after the GOP attack machine goes into high gear against Obama.

We also need to be congizant of the fact Obama is the recipient of the vast majority of the progressive "anyone but Hillary" vote, as well as the beneficiary of an incredibly misogynistic anti-Hillary bias in the media.

From what I've heard, Obama won the delegates last night and the popular vote is still up in the air. Unless you have a link with final totals to share...

Nothing is more dishonest then counting super delegates right now alongside actual vote counts. Its no different then a poll. They ask a super delegate if they plan on supporting them, and then count it before they actually vote? Super delegates can change their mind 1000 times. They can change their minds in between convention votes if they want to. Why should they be shown now implying they mean something?

Late Late Update: It looks like this one will be a lot closer than the exits indicated. With 98% reporting, Hillary leads by 117 votes out of over 131,000 between the two of them.

Still true at the time of this comment. We also know that 16,000 provisional ballots statewide remain to be counted.

The largest precinct still out is for Rio Rancho where the Kreskin-like Democratic Party leadership had ONE precinct in a town of 80,000 people. It was up to a four hour wait from about 3 pm MST until the polls closed at 7 pm. According to organizers, approximately 200-300 people just left the line because they could no longer wait. That count does not include people who saw how long the lines were and didn't even bother to wait. It was a disgrace!

At a precinct in SE Albuquerque they ran out of ballots by mid-afternoon, so they had people writing votes on blank paper with no guarantee that the vote would be counted!

The Party Chair Brian Brian Colon and Lt Governor Diane Denish have both been quoted in the media as saying "no one could have known." Heh. They both sounded like they were channeling their inner Condi Rice. Jesus! Didn't these people watch the news and see the record turnouts in earlier voting states?

And . . . . your point is colonpowwow, that a dem wins in a dem state that would never go republican? What a shock.

It's so sad that you are so blind to facts. Is it your blatant sexism that prevents you from seeing facts? What's your candidate's position on banning cluster bombs and mines that kill and maim children? She is very progressive and cares about children, so I would assume that she would be for the ban, right.

I mean its that 35 years of experience helping poor women and children that she did for, what, 6 months 35 years ago before her 6 years on the walmart board. But she worked for them that whole 6 months, wow. That's impressive.

NM went for Gore in 2000. NM went for Bush in 2004. Its a swing state.

Michael A.

You're ranting and I'm guessing sorta embarassing the reasonable Obama supporters who don't foam at the mouth every time the Clinton name is mentioned. That is probably about 98% of them IMO.

Yes, Michael. I must be blinded by my own sexism. I think it first surfaced right after I co-founded the Milwaukee chapter of NOW in 1970. I couldn't accept that a woman could be defined by anything beyond what her husband has accomplished. S#it! You found me out.

I love the popular vote totals! What a great race between these two, eh? To hell with the Republicans and their monolithism. I just hope and pray we do not descend into the sewer in this fight.

But really, I was wondering this all morning, SIlver Heron. Do you have a cite for that data? I figured HRC was further ahead than that....

By the way, if anyone is going to claim victory from last night (from both sides) please back it up with numbers and statistics.

Plus, I don't think .3% of the popular vote is really that much of a margin of victory to be stoked about.... WOW! WHAT A CONTEST, eh guys?

Let's try and lay off the mud throwing, k? It's only going to hurt us in the end, since it appears the bad guys have their nominee already.

Colonpowwow said at 10:46:

I couldn't accept that a woman could be defined by anything beyond what her husband has accomplished.

I agree with that statement 1000% and told you that 4 or 5 months ago. That's why I really don't understand why you constantly level the sexist charge. It's really mind boggling.

If you look at the county by county totals, this reminds me a lot of the picture of MO last night. NM would look solidly light blue for Hillary on a map but dark blue for Obama in the one little spot where all the people live and where you get the most votes which includes Rio Rancho (ABQ burb) that the poster above notes is still outstanding. Hillary is strong in rural areas, Obama strong in cities. More people live in cities. Last I looked though, Rio Arriba was still out too and that is heavily Hispanic but we'll see if Obama made ground with this group in NM. Obama clobbered in Santa Fe County but that is where a large number of more affluent voters live and follows trends in other states where the wealthiest Democrats favor Obama as the working class has favored Clinton.

Also, is there anything suspicious about the sheer number of provisional ballots here? I was at 3 polling places yesterday, one where I volunteered, one where I voted and one where I took my in-laws to vote. At my location where I voted, the person in front of me got a provisional ballot and the lady told her that she had handed out as many provisional as regular ballots. At my in-laws location, my mother in law had to do a provisional ballot and they told her that they had already done about 300 of these.

These and others reported by friends were clearly unable to meet the demand. When I voted after checking in I just walked over to another place to vote and frankly could have just skipped the first part, they took you at you word, the guy asked me regular or provisional ballot? I could have easily said regular even if they had told me provisional at check in. Also, there was no privacy, anyone could see who I voted for and vice versa. A friend also told me at her precinct the gentleman told her he was amazed by the number of provisional ballots.

I would also say that Obama had a much better campaign here. I received no visit or call from Hillary but both from Obama including an Obama doorknocker hanging on my door on Tuesday morning. At the polling locations I went to, the streets were lined with Obama yard signs. Not one single Hillary sign.

So I requested my absentee ballot on time. I emailed to confirm they sent it the first day they said they would send ballots out and wouldn´t you know, they sent it to the wrong address.

I am a Peace Corps like volunteer living in Ecuador. I have been so excited about this election and I just feel so disenfranchised by the Democratic Party of New Mexico. I have a history of emails between myself and the party where I attempt to ask about provisional absentee, faxing a ballot in, issues like that, and nothing!

I don´t want my voice, my vote, to not count. It just does not seem fair to punish a man because he decided to give two years of his life to community service in Latin America. I want my vote counted, or at the very least, I want it known young voters were disenfranchised. What can I do?