The traditional turnout model they used seems very realistic, the question is whether or not their projected independent and cross-over turnout is accurate. Still, it bodes well. The better the turnout the better Obama does.

Yeah, I have a hard time believing this one.
As a Democratic polling firm, it obviously has a bias towards Obama.
Seriously though, I expect a very close race.

“Our poll showed that with a standard turnout, Obama would lead Clinton just 47-44,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But we expect Wisconsin will
see the same record levels of turnout from young voters and black voters that Obama has
been bringing out in other states. That should propel him to a double digit victory.”

That is a statement from Public Policy Polling site... So i'm not sure how they can say that he is going to win by 13 points....I still think its going to be a close race because all of the other polls have him winning between 2% to 8%. And don't forget that ARG has Hillary winning.... The only polls that matter is what happens tomorrow... Hillary supporters keep making those calls.. we need her to win.

Why worry about polls today, when voting is tomorrow?

I can understand how polling a race 2 weeks for now can help estimate where the race is heading, or how national polls tell us something about momentum; but there is nothing useful in polls about tomorrow.

Just wait and see.

I have a hard time believing voters in the WI are that different from those in IL, IA and MN. Parts of the state are like MN and parts are like IL and there is media overlap. Certainly we huge numbers of commuters into the Twin Cities from western Wisconsin. Same day registration should be huge in college towns. I can't believe there are that many more downscale old women in Wisconsin. Certainly there are plenty of old women IA and MN too as people up here live forever (we keep better in the cold).

Mrs Bill Clinton asks that Senator Obama take public financing in the General Election.

Isn't that a nomination concession speech by Mrs. Bill Clinton! Why else would she be asking Senator Obama to take public financing in the presidential competition against John McCain.

The most significant thing in this poll is that Obama's lead has remained essentially unchanged since their last poll. All polls use different models on turnout and ethnic/gender breakdowns. Assuming those things are constant in any one given pollster's methodology, this shows that Obama has held his ground in the face of Clinton's attacks, which would explain why Clinton decided to leave early.

left early ????? shes still there and has a big rally at 7:15 tonight .....another empty comment from obama people

Mr. OHIO STATE:

I find your comments rude and arrogant. Full of empty rhetoric, alot like your football team there in Columbus

And let us not forget the recently posted general election numbers in Wisconsin:

McCain (R) 49%, Clinton (D) 42%

Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 42%

Vote for the one that can win. Vote for Obama.

Look at those SUSA general election polls in WI and OR. Add those to the growing stack showing Obama is more electable to the general public.

I believe this PPP poll, as well as the ARG poll that has her up 6 points, are outliers.

However, who knows what is going to happen with the Independents and Republicans who crossover...

Listen up Wisconsin:
Since the Repugs have their nom essentially sewn up, they are being told to go out and vote for Hillary, the candidate they know they can beat come November. Thus it's that much more important to GET OUT AND VOTE and DRAG YOUR FRIENDS WITH YOU. NEVERMIND THE POLLS, IT'S UP TO YOU.
Thanks in advance.

I will say this: The best poll in Iowa was the DMR, which had the loosest screen. While everyone else scuttled about trying to devise a foolproof formula for determining a "likely caucus-goer" the DMR essentially called folks and asked them:

1. You gonna caucus?

2. Who for?

Obama's ground team has shown a damn good ability to get their people out. Even in NH, he got pretty close to his number.

So, keep your heads down and keep working house by house, street by street, block by block and town by town, Obama folks, and see if you can hit this number!

If the American electorate is truly ready for change, then they'll see through the latest round of Clintonian bile-spewing and turn out for Obama. Polls or no polls, it's getting clearer by the day that the Clintons have no interest in genuine change. Going negative is not a strategy for them, it's an ethic.

Shallowness seems to be common among Obama and his supporters.

You forgot creepiness, cultism, mmmmmmmm, brainlessness, and a couple of others, Rae.

I'm curious: why is it suddenly acceptable to equate enthusiastic supporters with the Hitler Youth? Is it because the argument that Obama is shallow and nonsubstantive doesn't really fly when his record and his proposals are examined? Is it because no matter how much Senator Clinton has improved as a speaker, she still isn't even close to Obama? Is it because the media seems to have a real fascination with Obama, and a real disenchantment with Clinton?

I think there's grounds to argue over all of these questions, but not the Hitler Youth comments that you have made repeatedly. I just don't understand why you need to invoke one of the most devastating chapters in the history of mankind when talking about supporters of Obama.

That's creepy.

Okay, I need to get back to the drinking Ronald Reagan's blood thing. Are you a member of the sect within the cult that uses real Red Bull and believes it literally turns into Ronnie's blood when you drink it, or are you from the sect that uses caffeine-free diet Coke at communion and believes it only metaphorically turns into Ronnie's blood?

And, btw, PPD has a pretty good track record so far this year. They're one of the few firms that seems willing to acknowledge that traditional turnout models are kind of whack this year.

>"Superdelegates are not second-class delegates," says Joel Ferguson, who will be a superdelegate if Michigan is seated. "The real second-class delegates are the delegates that are picked in red-state caucuses that are never going to vote Democratic."

Oh, sweet merciful god. Please make the stupid stop. It burns, it burns.

SurveyUSA just weighed in and is pretty much in agreement with the PPP.

Obama 49%
Clinton 42%

By the way, if you're a Obama supporter who should pray for a record turnout as in other states. If you're a Hillary supportrr you should pray for a low or standard turn out.

According to the polls, bigger the turnout bigger will be Obama's win.

I hope WI voters will brave the weather-like ME and VA; If that's the case- Obama wil win WA.

I agree CT Voter. And by that logic, putting all loyalty for one candidate or the other aside, and supporting the candidate who helps the dem. party most from top to bottom of the ticket is also exercising good judgment.

Wow. The Clinton supporters are getting really desperate. I love it when the viciousness comes out. It's so... Hillary-like.

How is it that Obama's supporters are "cult-like" but when Hillary's supporters cling to the ship as it's going down and credulously buy the lies about her "35 years" of experience, that's rational and reasonable?

You like your candidate. We like ours. We just happen to be backing the winner.

This Public Policy Polling poll for Wisconsin has Obama leading among women, Democrats, whites, and people age 46-64. This means Obama is going to win Wisconsin comfortably. There's no way that anybody's poll could return Obama winning in all those particular categories without him actually winning on the day. How big his margin will be on the day is dependent on the turnout size of Independents.