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Dem Pollster Gives Obama Double-Digit Lead In Wisconsin Primary
A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Barack Obama a big lead for tomorrow's Wisconsin primary, a somewhat bigger lead than most other polls have shown.
Here are the numbers, compared to last week's poll
Obama 53% (+3)
Clinton 40% (+1)
Obama leads 49%-45% among core Democrats, and does better than 2-1 against Hillary Clinton among independents and Republicans likely to vote in the Dem primary.
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Can you say "outlier"?
February 18, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps this one is off, Public Policy has been worse than Zogby, but better than ARG. But, I buy this poll. I don't think it's going to be that close tomorrow. People are just sick of the Clintons.
February 18, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The traditional turnout model they used seems very realistic, the question is whether or not their projected independent and cross-over turnout is accurate. Still, it bodes well. The better the turnout the better Obama does.
February 18, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anecdotal info (from yesterday and today) suggests a lot of crossover voting due to discontent with McCain (and thus Obama will likely reap the benefits as he is more electable over McCain). As for independents, they seem to want a Dem and are somewhat torn... but want a Dem over a Repub... and thus once again, that leads to an Obama vote (as more likely to win).
I know two elderly white persons, lifelong repubs, who are ready to vote for Obama.
February 18, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
They are calling for 13F high with -15F wind chill and scattered snow showers in Milwaukee during the day tomorrow. I know they're hardy up there, but I have to wonder if this will effect turnout.
February 18, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I'd rather see close polls showing obama just behind so that people get out and vote. These types of polls don't do obama a bit of good. The only poll that matters happens tomorrow. People in wisconsin have to get out and vote!!!!!
February 18, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
YES PEOPLE. MICHAEL'S RIGHT. GET OUT AND VOTE FOR HILLARY !!
Don't be duped by pretty talk by a cult figure with no susbstance.
Vote Policies, Solutions and proven to be tough on protecting us.
Because we all know, if Obama is elected, McCain will win.
Unfortunately many dems will even vote McCain if Obama is nominee.
February 18, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Rae, nice to see you again! Last time we chatted I asked what Hillary had accomplished as First Lady and as a Senator. It was sort of embarrassing because, well, you didn't really know! (Oopsie!) Anyway, I think you and I both know that the way to sway undecided voters is to lay out the case as to why the candidate you support is better. So let's hear it! What experience does Hillary have, what are her solutions, why should I vote for her?
I'll be waiting, thanks!
February 18, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rae's argument: vote for Hillary because Obama's supporters are close to turning into Hitler Youth. I believe Rae has made that argument a couple of times already, right, Rae?
February 18, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree! What changed me from Obama to Hillary is hitler-esque following. I couldn't connect with the craziness.
Hillary has more substance, more solutions and HAS done a whole lot more for this country. You know, I know it and each debate demonstrates it clearly, which is why he is reticent to debate her.
He uses other people's speeches, campaign slogans and plagiarizes her ideas.
Hillary Rodham Clinton, President of the United States '08
February 18, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love how you totally wrote about Hillary's experience in details and with specific instances instead of just repeating the meme that Obama supporters are crazy loons! That was totally topical to the issues I raised!
February 18, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahh, Billysumday,
Its pathetic when you tell mistruths like this.
I took the time to write and posted a couple of pages of her accomplishments and then challenged YOU to post anything your guy has accomplished other than plagarizing someone else plans and speeches and gettig elected to senate.
But you responded with NOTHING.
I'll not fall for your grade school tactics again. She is the candidate with a full resume of accomplishments, plans & solutions where as your guy is full of air and rhetoric. I imagine that is why you do this sort of thing.
Shallowness seems to be common among Obama and his supporters.
Rae
February 18, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rae, you're lying. You posted some links to Hillary's site, that was it. It was clear you didn't know anything about Hillary. And you never asked me about Obama. If you had, I would have said this:
Barack Obama needs to be the Democratic nominee in 2008. During his tenure in the Illinois Senate, he introduced hundreds of detailed bills that helped the citizens of Illinois. In particular, he crafted legislation that forced police officers to tape interrogations - an unpopular bill that he worked hard to get bipartisan support for. By reaching across the aisle, he was able to convince members of both parties to support the bill. He is a constitutional law professor and has a serious and sober grasp of the literature that provides the basis of our democracy. Although he's only been in the Senate for three years, he's working with senators on both sides of the aisle to push through quality bills. The Lugar-Obama bill was of particular merit.
Most importantly, Obama has the chance to revitalize this country and get the citizens of our nation engaged once again in the apparatus that is the federal government. His work as a community organizer showed him the value of getting people to invest in the idea of a better community. Through his words and actions, he's proven to be forthright, honest, tough, and hard working.
Yes, he gives a good speech. But his wonkish side is just as impressive, and I think anyone who watched the LA debates saw a person with a fine grasp of immigration, health care, and foreign policy. What's more, he presented himself and continues to present himself as a leader who is capable of leading this country forward. One only needs to look as far as his campaign to see the difference between what an Obama presidency and a Clinton would look like. He is professional, experienced, and has shown an ability to reinvigorate the dormant interests of the American populace.
Okay, Rae - your turn! Why should Hillary be President?
February 18, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rae?
February 18, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rae, come back!
February 18, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
billysunday,
Hillary is only paying Rae 10 cents a post. You get what you pay for!
February 18, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another closet racist projects his views on voters in general. You are among the dwindling few.
February 18, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Congratulations on another 10 cent post, Rae!
February 18, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Raeka,
Hate to break it to you, but they are so close as to be the same on policy, and what people are really voting on is whom will be the most transformative. it seems a pretty simple choice between a JFK figure, and a Democratic Aperachick. not a hard choice. hope-monger or more of the same.
February 18, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I have a hard time believing this one.
As a Democratic polling firm, it obviously has a bias towards Obama.
Seriously though, I expect a very close race.
February 18, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
You win the dumbest poster of the day award.
Mrs. Bill Clinton is a democrat.
February 18, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you miss the "seriously though" bit?
February 18, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
uh, liam.... sarcasm alert....
February 19, 2008 3:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clear victories are the best way to stop the Clintons' disater scenario of fighting it out at the convention, and risking damage to the party in November and long after that. But for now, heads down and keep working, one day and one voter and one delegate at a time...
February 18, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
From their lips to God's ears. That said, I as skeptical as CT voter on this one. Given Sen Clinton's natural demographic advantages in WI, I will be surprised if he enjoys such a wide margin of victory.
February 18, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, I'm going to say it again: if Clinton cannot break the 40% mark in WI, it is time to GTFO of the primary. Like Greg mentioned, this is a good demographic for her. But so was WA, so was IA...If Obama hits the 60% mark, where will the Clinton spinsters turn? Waether? Damn young people?
The Clinton campaign is starting to sound like the villains who gets caught at the end of every Scooby Doo episode:
"I'd a gotten away with it, if it weren't for (that dog and) you meddling kids!" Damn kids!
Imagine where we would be right now if the voting age was still 21...scary.
February 18, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
“Our poll showed that with a standard turnout, Obama would lead Clinton just 47-44,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But we expect Wisconsin will
see the same record levels of turnout from young voters and black voters that Obama has
been bringing out in other states. That should propel him to a double digit victory.”
That is a statement from Public Policy Polling site... So i'm not sure how they can say that he is going to win by 13 points....I still think its going to be a close race because all of the other polls have him winning between 2% to 8%. And don't forget that ARG has Hillary winning.... The only polls that matter is what happens tomorrow... Hillary supporters keep making those calls.. we need her to win.
February 18, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Obama supporters, keep making those calls as well...
My prediction is that turnout isn't going to be the record-breaking turnout it has been in other elections for two reasons: the 4000 tons of snow blanketing the state, and, the campaigns haven't been as prominent in the last couple of days before the vote, because of....the 4000 tons of bad weather the state was gifted with.
I hope I'm wrong, but I still see this race as being very close.
But then, I thought that about VA, as well.
February 18, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look, even if Obama wins Wisconsin, it doesn't mean he'll win it in a general election. Ergo, Hillary should get all the delegates immediately. Enough with these silly elections already!
February 18, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, let's just let the judgment of those Super-Duper Dems decide this for us. Enough with all these disenfranchising elections!
February 18, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huzzah to that! Let Mark Penn cast the one and only deciding vote!
February 18, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why worry about polls today, when voting is tomorrow?
I can understand how polling a race 2 weeks for now can help estimate where the race is heading, or how national polls tell us something about momentum; but there is nothing useful in polls about tomorrow.
Just wait and see.
February 18, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
i checked all the polling sites and dont see this one.....real clear and pollster dont have it ..... TPM is so biased to obama they didnt metion poll yesterday that had clinton up by 6....you sure TPM isnt part of MSNBC
February 18, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep.
February 18, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good detective work, Zumper!
February 18, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you. You've finally turned off your caps lock.
February 18, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
(Um, look three entries down, Zumper.)
February 18, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a hard time believing voters in the WI are that different from those in IL, IA and MN. Parts of the state are like MN and parts are like IL and there is media overlap. Certainly we huge numbers of commuters into the Twin Cities from western Wisconsin. Same day registration should be huge in college towns. I can't believe there are that many more downscale old women in Wisconsin. Certainly there are plenty of old women IA and MN too as people up here live forever (we keep better in the cold).
February 18, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mrs Bill Clinton asks that Senator Obama take public financing in the General Election.
Isn't that a nomination concession speech by Mrs. Bill Clinton! Why else would she be asking Senator Obama to take public financing in the presidential competition against John McCain.
February 18, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
BREAKING NEWS ..............OBAMA'S PERFECT
media cant find any faults with obama but promise to keep trying
February 18, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good one!
February 18, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously, though, he's perfect? I guess I know who to vote for then.
February 18, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most significant thing in this poll is that Obama's lead has remained essentially unchanged since their last poll. All polls use different models on turnout and ethnic/gender breakdowns. Assuming those things are constant in any one given pollster's methodology, this shows that Obama has held his ground in the face of Clinton's attacks, which would explain why Clinton decided to leave early.
February 18, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
left early ????? shes still there and has a big rally at 7:15 tonight .....another empty comment from obama people
February 18, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Empty comment? You know Engrish, my frend?
February 18, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
i know a con artist when i see one and hear one
February 18, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
You must be super intelligent!
February 18, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
get your facts straight when making a comment ...if not its an empty comment
February 18, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, the comment you're referring to would be incorrect, not empty. An empty comment implies that it contains no substantive point, no clear reason. But hey, you're the smarty-pants around here, not me! All I know is what the MEDIA tells me!
February 18, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
and the media tells you to vote for obama like the rest of his cult
February 18, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, no, no, silly. I'm voting for Obama because I drank the blood of Ronald Reagan - that's the only way THEY (read: MEDIA) let you into the cult!
February 18, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only because of the weather. If the weather had held up yesterday, she would be leaving the state as I type this.
February 18, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Bluebell. That's the funniest comment of the day.
February 18, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
zumper, billysumday, and Michael A,
before slamming Election Central with the (completely overused) claim of bias, click on "view more polls", ok?
All the polls that you mention are there.
Which makes your claims of bias look pretty silly. And, diminishes whatever else you say.
February 18, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
silly look at the headline of the article and then try to find a poll that has him up double digits
February 18, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
What.
February 18, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
CT Voter, I was responding to her/his question if people in general I guess, referred to as "you" in the post, were sure that TPM wasn't part of MSNBC, not about the rest of post. I guess I shouldn't have responded at all or been clearer. I disagree with the rest of the post.
February 18, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your comment makes more sense in that context.
February 18, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
With regards to billysumday and Michael A., it helps to realize that (a) they seem to support Obama, and (b) they often use sarcasm (not that I'm above it myself). This post from billysumday should have tipped you off:
I think it's safe to say that he doesn't actually drink the blood of Ronald Reagan. Right, Billy? Right?!?
February 18, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "drinking Reagan's blood" comment (which was hilarious) appeared after my comment about finding the polls...
And the point wasn't to take issue with those individuals in particular, it was to take issue with the, at this point, rather tiresome theme that TPM Election Central is biased in someway, when there's ample evidence that suggest it's not biased.
Actually, TPM Election Central is biased in one sense: in favor of Democratic candidates at the expense of Republicans. That's not bias, though--unless you consider good judgment a form of "bias".
February 18, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink