CNN Poll: Obama Leads Hillary Nationally By Three Points
This morning's CNN poll gives Barack Obama the national lead over Hillary Clinton — the first time ever that Obama has led in a major national poll, though the result is still technically a statistical dead heat. Here are the numbers, compared to the last poll from just over two weeks ago:
Obama 49% (+16)
Clinton 46% (+4)
This poll would seem to indicate that Obama is picking up most of the former John Edwards supporters, as well as a good number of the undecideds.
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Well, we got a horse race. Tomorrow is going to be very interesting. Obama has mo and the clintons have been pretty stagnant, kind of like the status quo. At least the clintons are no longer inevitable as the clinton people have been preaching.
February 4, 2008 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
And if you believe this poll, I've got some really great beach front property in Arizona that I'll make you a good deal on.
February 4, 2008 8:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see why that poll is so out of line. There's been an extraordinarily consistent momentum in Obama's favor since South Carolina. I'm not saying that he's going to win on Tuesday - there's too much volatility to indicate that - but the trend certainly seems to be in his direction.
February 4, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Matthew. How did a smart guy like you get stuck with beach property in AZ? That sucks big time.
February 4, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
How much for the property? Why the hell wouldn't I believe a poll that seems a natural progression from the polls conducted over the course of the last week?
Do you not see those orange lines to your right?
February 4, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you say that?
February 4, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mattie, hillaryis44.org, you will like it there. Polls lie, but they are evidencing the big mo. We shall see tomorrow.
February 4, 2008 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't the real news in all these polls that Obama is rising steadily, if not rapidly, and Hillary is not?
Hillary is as well known as any candidate in history - if she hasn't increased her support by now she's never going to. Forget who you like or don't like - she's tapped out. She will have a much harder time than Obama breaking Kerry's 49% should she be the nominee in November.
February 4, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
This isn't unexpected. With Clinton and Obama basically tied, random statistical error would eventually put Obama ahead in some polls.
February 4, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Matthew,
How deep is your head stuck down into that sand?
Paleodan,
What did you do? Drop the stats course just after margin of error but before trends?
February 4, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0345866120080204?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true
Obama expands lead on Clinton in California
"In California, Obama gained two points on Clinton overnight to lead 46 percent to 40 percent, with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. Obama wiped out a 1-point Clinton advantage in Missouri to take a 47 percent to 42 percent lead, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
The two rivals were deadlocked at 43 percent in New Jersey, with 10 percent still undecided. Obama had a 17-point edge in Georgia, aided by a more than 3-to-1 edge among black voters."
February 4, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right, it isn't unexpected. As people get to know Obama, and take a second look at Hillary, and then think about a matchup with McCain in the fall, it is precisely what's been happening for more than a month now. Wake up.
February 4, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cook/RT Poll: Obama Passes Clinton
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/04/cookrt_poll_obama_passes_clinton.html
"Political Wire got an advance look at the latest Cook Political Report/RT Strategies national survey which shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 43% to 37%, just outside the 5.1 point margin of error.
In the GOP race, Sen. John McCain leads Mitt Romney, 39% to 24%, with Mike Huckabee third with 18%.
In general election match ups, McCain leads Clinton by 4 points, 45 to 41 percent; Obama leads McCain by two points, 45 to 43 percent."
Its all about electability!!!!!!!!!
February 4, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cook/RT Poll: Obama Passes Clinton
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/04/cookrt_poll_obama_passes_clinton.html
"Political Wire got an advance look at the latest Cook Political Report/RT Strategies national survey which shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 43% to 37%, just outside the 5.1 point margin of error.
In the GOP race, Sen. John McCain leads Mitt Romney, 39% to 24%, with Mike Huckabee third with 18%.
In general election match ups, McCain leads Clinton by 4 points, 45 to 41 percent; Obama leads McCain by two points, 45 to 43 percent."
Its all about electability!!!!!!!!!
February 4, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is completely unsurprising. The momentum has been Obama's for a long time. His campaign is now a force of nature. His slow, steady progress is what convinces me that the trend these polls show is accurate.
February 4, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nay-Sayers, you're on the wrong side of history. Come join us over here... no more singing the blues.
♪♪♪ It's new day coming...
February 4, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I keep trying and getting shut out. What a terrible time to change the site.
Here is a classic statement by clinton. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot with a howitzer.
In a day dominated by familiar stump speeches, Hillary Clinton made news by saying she might allow workers' wages to be garnisheed if they refuse to buy health insurance. She has criticized Obama for pushing a health plan that she says would not require universal coverage.
Also, this link is very informative. I'll try again.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080204/pl_bloomberg/aqivdvkpq3s;_ylt=Ao5bSd9fL51IH463Ncott8ys0NUE
February 4, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Third time I am trying to post this.
Clinton said the following, talk about shooting yourself in the foot.
In a day dominated by familiar stump speeches, Hillary Clinton made news by saying she might allow workers' wages to be garnisheed if they refuse to buy health insurance. She has criticized Obama for pushing a health plan that she says would not require universal coverage.
Also, this link is very informative. Why no story on TPM?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080204/pl_bloomberg/aqivdvkpq3s;_ylt=Ao5bSd9fL51IH463Ncott8ys0NUE
February 4, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Michael A:
Thanks for posting the link, and I agree--this should have a headline on the front page of TPM. Wonder if it will happen...
According to the article, lobbyists donated $823,087.00 to Clinton, $0.00 to Obama (although he did receive about 10% of Clinton's total from employees of firms that lobby).
Interesting. Very interesting. I guess, when our leaders are really being tested (such as in a tight campaign) it's nice to know who's willing stick to principles that Americans support.
February 4, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink