ABC/WaPo: Hillary Up 47-43 Nationally, McCain Way Ahead For GOP
The new ABC/Washington Post national poll shows a tight race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Here are the numbers, compared to the previous poll from three weeks ago:
Clinton 47% (+5)
Obama 43% (+6)
John Edwards was at 11% in the last poll, an indication that his support may be breaking fairly even between two remaining candidates in the country as a whole — though the breakdowns have also seemed to vary from state to state in other polls.
On the Republican side, it's a different story. John McCain is way ahead, and appears to have picked up virtually all of Rudy Giuliani's past support:
McCain 48% (+20)
Romney 24% (+5)
Huckabee 20% (-4)
Paul 7% (+4)
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And, more importantly, Obama beats McCain while Hillary loses!
February 3, 2008 1:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds about right. The CW is HRC starts out with a slight lead but not enough to be comfortable or confident.
February 3, 2008 2:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the problem I have with this poll, the recent daily Gallup polls, the daily Rasmussen, and all national polls.
Out of the 1,249 adults polled, 681 were Democrats. That's roughly 14 people per state. Even if they only polled the 24 Super Tuesday states, which they make no mention of, it would still only be 28 people per state.
No matter which candidate you support you shouldn't celebrate or be depressed based on what 14 random folks in your state feel at the moment.
Of course these national polls don't bother to provide statistical breakdowns per state, which would only serve to illuminate their paltry sampling size.
Throw in the 3% margin of error, the 10% undecideds (what is up with these people), and historic record turnout this year, these national polls are even more ridiculous.
I wonder what the ratio is of those who agreed to be polled vs. those who hung up the phone or didn't bother finishing the poll?
Anybody remember how accurate the 1996, 2000, and 2004 national polls were? Of course not.
February 3, 2008 2:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama could be doing what Gary Hart tried to do back in '84 when dinosaurs roamed the earth -- Jesse Jackson '84 is not the right comparison, this is generational. I'm at the later end of the Baby Boom and even I think we outta be thrown the Hell out.
Don't trust anyone over 60!
February 3, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
TPM is definitely pro-Hillary regardless of what Josh claims. Look at his RAsmussen headline right now. Isn't the story more that Rasmussen now shows Obama winning in CA or is it the national poll? C'mon Josh...
February 3, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink