With less than 72 hours to go until the voting begins in what could be the race's final contests, Obama and Hillary are set to hit each other hard in speeches today.

Obama, according to prepared remarks, intends to blister Hillary on a number of fronts in a speech in Rhode Island, hitting her over NAFTA, lobbyists and, of course, her vote for the Iraq War:

Real change isn’t voting for George Bush’s war in Iraq and then telling the American people it was actually a vote for more diplomacy when you start running for President. The title of the bill was “A Resolution to Authorize the Use of United States Armed Forces Against Iraq.” What else were you voting for? I knew what it was, and that’s why I opposed this war from the start, and why I will bring our troops home when I am President. That’s real change.

Meanwhile, in Texas today, Hillary will continue trying to sow last-minute doubts about Obama's readiness to be commander in chief, and she'll even point to his claim that her red-phone ad is fear-mongering as proof that he isn't ready to take on John McCain or be president:

My opponent and I are in an important debate about national security -- and which one of us is best prepared to take charge as Commander-in-Chief.

He calls that fear-mongering...

When my opponent says it's fear-mongering to talk about who is ready to protect America, I say: If you can't have that debate with me, how can you have it with John McCain?

We are running for the most important job in the world, and you can't run away from a debate on national security.

Longer excerpts from both speeches after the jump.

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Here are Hillary's talking points on that 3 A.M. White House phone call meme, emailed out to surrogates for use this weekend and forwarded to us by a source.

The talking points suggest that Camp Hillary is shoving all its chips onto this argument in hopes that it gets the late-breakers to have last minute doubts about Obama's readiness for the gig of commander in chief...

Daily Talking Points - Saturday, March 1, 2008

READY TO BE COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF

* Hillary is ready to answer a 3 a.m. phone call to the White House when something goes wrong in the world. She is ready to be Commander-in-Chief.

* When that phone rings, there’s no time for speeches or for on-the-job training.

* Hillary represented America in more than 80 countries, worked to open borders in Kosovo, and bring peace to Northern Ireland.

* Hillary stood up in China for human rights, serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee and is the only Senator on the U.S. Joint Forces Command’s Transformation Advisory Group. That’s why she has been endorsed by over 25 generals and admirals.

The talking points also emphasize a new phrase: "missing in action."...

* There’s a big difference between giving a speech as a state senator and giving orders as Commander-in-Chief. Sen. Obama talks about these issues, but then goes missing in action.

* Sen. Obama spoke against the Iraq war, but went missing in action in the Senate. By 2004, he said he wasn’t sure how he would have voted and said he basically agreed with how President Bush was conducting the war. In the Senate, Hillary and Sen. Obama have nearly the same voting records on Iraq.

* Sen. Obama went missing in action when he missed a vote on Iran.

* Sen. Obama was missing in action when he failed to hold a single substantive hearing on a committee he chaired that has responsibility for Europe and NATO and NATO’s policy in Afghanistan. He’s admitted he was too busy running for President.

* When a crisis erupts in the world, we can’t have a President who goes missing in action. We need a President who will lead.

So expect to be hearing this stuff from surrogates a great deal in coming days...

Today's New York Times has a big take-out on a topic we addressed at some length here the other day: The Hillary camp's claim that the press is way tougher on her than on Barack Obama.

The mere existence of the article suggests that Camp Hillary's bash-the-press strategy, whatever its downsides, is successfully injecting the idea that she's a victim of the media into the political conversation. Check out what the reporters themselves have to say to The Times about it:

NBC's Lee Cowan seems to suggest that there's something to it...

“He hasn’t been around as long, so there isn’t as much to pick at,” Mr. Cowan said. “He plays everything very cool. He’s not as much of a lightning rod. His personality just doesn’t seem to draw that kind of coverage.”

“Even in the conversations we have as colleagues, there is a sense of trying especially hard not to drink the Kool-Aid,” Mr. Cowan added. “It’s so rapturous, everything around him. All these huge rallies.”

But NBC's Andrea Mitchell says the Hillary camp's to blame...

“Part of it is her campaign’s fault,” Andrea Mitchell, the longtime NBC political correspondent, said backstage at the MSNBC debate in Cleveland in Tuesday. “They started with this notion of inevitability. And they were very arrogant.”

The whole thing is worth a read.

Separately, a new poll finds that there is another group who agrees with the Hillary camp on this: Nearly half of Democratic primary voters.

Obama already has a brutal ad set to run in Texas responding to Hillary's red phone ad -- it features kids tucked away in bed and the red phone ringing at 3 A.M., as hers does, but concludes:

"When that call gets answered, shouldn't the president be the one -- the only one -- who had judgment and courage to oppose the Iraq War from the start?"

Hillary hit the 3 A.M. phone call theme herself at an event in Texas a little while ago, defending herself against Obama's denunciation of her new ad as fear-mongering by saying: "I don't think people in Texas scare all that easily."

Take a look...

Clearly, the Hillary camp is trying to swing the late-breakers her way by sowing last-minute doubts about Obama's readiness to be commander-in-chief. It seems like a pretty big gamble -- we'll see if it works, or if it sparks a back-lash among voters turned off by tactics such as the use of kids in ads.

Transcript after the jump.

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While Barack Obama has been forced to renounce the uninvited support of Louis Farrakhan, John McCain has made it official today: He's still accepting the endorsement of John Hagee. Here's the statement released this afternoon:

"Yesterday, Pastor John Hagee endorsed my candidacy for president in San Antonio, Texas. However, in no way did I intend for his endorsement to suggest that I in turn agree with all of Pastor Hagee's views, which I obviously do not.

"I am hopeful that Catholics, Protestants and all people of faith who share my vision for the future of America will respond to our message of defending innocent life, traditional marriage, and compassion for the most vulnerable in our society."

While McCain assures the public that he doesn't agree with all of Hagee's views -- which include End Times theology, anti-Catholic teachings, and a pronouncement that Hurricane Katrina was God's punishment for New Orleans' tolerance of homosexuality -- he does not go so far as to either denounce those statements or reject Hagee's support entirely.

What will Tim Russert say?

Hillary drops a mailer in Ohio -- forwarded to us by a reader -- that attacks Obama on energy.

In a state where Hillary is working hard to stave off Obama's inroads among her working class base, and arguing that she's the true enemy of the special interests, the mailer references the contributions he's taken from "energy company employees" and warns: "American families can't afford Barack Obama."

Click on the images to enlarge...

The Obama campaign points to this chart over at OpenSecrets.org, which says that Hillary's taken more than Obama in energy industry donations, and emails over this response:

Yesterday, Ohioans received yet another negative mailing from Senator Clinton making false and increasingly desperate attacks against Senator Obama – despite Senator Clinton’s many protests against misleading voters. Once again, Senator Clinton’s attacks are false and they mask her own record of taking money from oil company lobbyists while voting against investments in renewable energy.

Senator Clinton knows that Governor Strickland joined Barack Obama and many Democrats in supporting the Energy Policy Act, which took important steps to set our nation on a path to energy independence by making unprecedented investments in renewable energy.

Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has announced today his endorsement of Barack Obama.

Obama now has the endorsements of 12 fellow Senators by our count, closing in on Hillary Clinton's 13 Senate supporters.

Below we noted that The New York Observer had gotten Austan Goolsbee to deny that he'd had any conversations with any Canadian official about whether Obama's NAFTA stump talk was mere "campaign rhetoric," as Canada TV reported.

“It is a totally inaccurate story,” Goolsbee told The Observer “I did not call these people and I direct you to the press office.”

But ABC News reached Goolsbee, too, and they had a different conversation:

ABC News' Jennifer Parker spoke to Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economics professor, Thursday who would not confirm or deny that he had a conversation with Georges Rioux, the Canadian Consulate General in Chicago. Rioux, in meetings this week in Ottawa, would also neither confirm nor deny any conversation took place. Both men did say that they know each other.

So, according to ABC, neither of those two men would confirm or deny whether they talked. The Obama campaign has a statement out today that doesn't explicitly mention Goolsbee, but said the story is "not true," and added that "no one at any level of our campaign, at any point, anywhere, who said or otherwise implied Obama was backing away from his consistent position on trade."

The New York Observer managed to track down Austan Goolsbee, the Obama adviser who, according to the latest report on Canada TV, was the one who may have told a Canadian official that Obama's anti-NAFTA stump speech is merely "campaign rhetoric."

And Goolsbee denies it:

“It is a totally inaccurate story,” he said. “I did not call these people and I direct you to the press office.”

Meanwhile, Obama spokesperson Bill Burton also denies this latest round, via email:

This story is not true. There was no one at any level of our campaign, at any point, anywhere, who said or otherwise implied Obama was backing away from his consistent position on trade.

On a conference call just now, Hillary pollster Mark Penn offered an intriguing defense of the new Hillary ad asking who you want answering the red phone in the White House when your kids are safely sleeping at 3 A.M.

Asked if the ad was reminiscent of the famous Lyndon Johnson ad showing a young girl picking at a daisy before an ominous-sounding announcer counts down from 10-to-one towards a nuclear apocalypse, Penn said:

This is a positive ad. Very soft images. Not at all like that ad. Soft images. It poses a question to people -- who do they want to pick up the phone? Let them make their own judgment. This is a spot that puts [the question] in the hands of voters.

It scarcely needs to be pointed out, of course, that the ad implicitly suggests that you can't trust Obama to answer that red phone while your children sleep.

Okay, Obama has now directly responded to Hillary's ad asking who you want in the White House at 3 A.M. when the red phone rings and your kids are safely asleep.

And his reply suggests that the Obama camp is grabbing at this as an opportunity to draw the contrast yet again that they've been drawing throughout the campaign -- that judgment, rather than the reflexive use of force, is what's required most in national security crisis situations.

Here's some vid of Obama responding at an event today...

Here's the transcript -- sent over by his campaign:

I do want to take a moment to respond, because the press is, I’m sure, curious, to an ad that Senator Clinton is apparently running today. It asks a legitimate question. It says, who do you want answering the phone in the White House when it's 3:00 a.m. and something has happened in the world. It’s a legitimate question. And we’ve seen these ads before. They’re usually the kind that play upon people's fears and try to scare up votes.

"We've seen these ads before" is a subtle reference to GOP fearmongering in campaigns past, obviously. More from Obama:

I don't think these ads will work this time because the question is not about picking up the phone. The question is, what kind of judgment will you exercise when you pick up that phone. In fact, we have had a red phone moment; it was the decision to invade Iraq.

Senator Clinton gave the wrong answer. George Bush gave the wrong answer. John McCain gave the wrong answer. I stood up and I said that a war in Iraq would be unwise. It cost us thousands of lives and billions of dollars. I said that it would distract us from the real threat that we face, and that we should take the fight to al Qaeda in Afghanistan. That’s the judgment I made on the most important foreign policy decision of our generation.

Obama also makes another implicit comparison between Hillary's ad and Rovian scaremongering:

I will never see the threat of terrorism as a way to scare up votes, because it's a threat that should rally the country around our common enemies. That is the judgment we need at 3:00 a.m., and that's the judgment that I am running for as president of the United States of America.

Compare and contrast. On the same day that Hillary released her new ad asking who you want in the White House when the red phone rings and your kids are safely sleeping, Obama comes out with this spot, featuring retired General Merrill McPeak, who served during Desert Storm.

The spot seeks to argue that "judgment" is what's crucial in national security crisis situations, quoting McPeak as follows: "Lives depended on the judgments I made. And judgment is what we need from our next commander in chief."

McPeak recently created a bit of trouble for the Obama campaign when he referred to Hillary's infamous Tears Moment by saying that Obama "doesn't go on television and have crying fits." He later retracted the remarks and the Obama camp dissociated itself from them.

(Via Politico.)

Late Update: I should have clarified that the Obama campaign has run this spot before.

The Obama campaign is striking back hard against Hillary's new ad asking who people want answering the phone in the White House when "it's 3 A.M. and your children are safe and asleep."

On a conference call with reporters just now, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe issued a withering reply:

"We don't think the ad is going to be effective at all. Senator Clinton already had her red phone moment -- to decide whether to allow George Bush to invade Iraq. She answered affirmatively. She did not read the National Intelligence Estimate. She still, curiously, tries to suggest that it wasn't a vote for war, but it most assuredly was...

"This is about what you say when you answer that phone. What judgment you show...She, John McCain and George Bush gave the wrong answer."

Tough stuff indeed.

Yesterday, the Canadian embassy adamantly denied a report on Canadian TV that an Obama campaign official had privately reassured a Canadian official that Obama's anti-NAFTA talk on the stump was merely "campaign rhetoric." The Obama campaign also labeled the story "inaccurate."

But CTV, which first aired the story, is more or less standing by their reporting, and also named the Obama aide in question:

The Obama campaign told CTV late Thursday night that no message was passed to the Canadian government that suggests that Obama does not mean what he says about opting out of NAFTA if it is not renegotiated.

However, the Obama camp did not respond to repeated questions from CTV on reports that a conversation on this matter was held between Obama's senior economic adviser -- Austan Goolsbee -- and the Canadian Consulate General in Chicago.

CTV is also reporting that Goolsbee isn't denying this:

On Thursday night, CTV spoke with Goolsbee, but he refused to say whether he had such a conversation with the Canadian government office in Chicago. He also said he has been told to direct any questions to the campaign headquarters.

The Obama campaign has reiterated his opposition to NAFTA and says he's totally committed to reinforcing environmental and labor standards. More soon.

Late Update: It's worth noting that CTV isn't at all clear about what it is that Goolsbee said to the Chicago office; they only say that there was a conversation "on this matter," which is pretty vague. We're checking in with the Chicago office and will keep you posted.

Late Late Update: Obama spokesperson Bill Burton flatly denies this latest report:

This story is not true. There was no one at any level of our campaign, at any point, anywhere, who said or otherwise implied Obama was backing away from his consistent position on trade.

Hillary Clinton has a new ad in Texas, making what is perhaps her most forceful argument yet against Barack Obama on national security:

"It's 3 a.m., and your children are safe and asleep," the announcer says. "But there's a phone in the White House, and it's ringing — something's happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call."

The mother looking in on her children, worried about their safety, is a clear play for the so-called "security mom" vote. Should Barack Obama ultimately win the Democratic nomination, it's hard not to picture John McCain's campaign running an ad very much like this one.

Late Update: The Obama campaign issues a withering response.

The Texas Democratic Party has taken an interesting step for the upcoming hybrid primary/caucus: Asking the campaigns not to sue. "It has been brought to my attention that one or both of your campaigns may already be planning or intending to pursue litigation against the Texas Democratic Party," wrote party attorney Chad Dunn in a letter. "Such action could prove to be a tragedy for a reinvigorated Democratic process."

According to party officials speaking under anonymity, the threat of a lawsuit has come from the Clinton campaign, during a conference call between the party and the campaigns. "Officials from Sen. Clinton's campaign at several times throughout the call raised the specter of 'challenging the process,'" according to one source.

Adrienne Elrod, spokeswoman for the Hillary campaign in Texas, denied the allegation and said the campaign was merely seeking a written agreement. "It is our campaign's standard operating procedure that we need to see what we are agreeing to in writing before we agree to it," Elrod said. "No legal action is being taken. We have no reason to take any legal action."

It's not clear what the campaign would be threatening to sue over, nor what issues are/were the subject of negotiations between the campaigns and the Texas Dems. We'll have more information soon.

A new round of Zogby polls puts Barack Obama ahead in the Texas primary 48%-42% over Hillary Clinton. Some analysis from John Zogby: "In Texas, Obama has big leads among independents, men, voters under 65, African Americans, and voters who have decided within the last month. Clinton leads with Catholics and voters over 65."

Hillary has a narrow lead in Ohio, at 44% to Obama's 42%. Zogby: "Clinton leads among Democrats, women, voters over 50, and everywhere outside the three big cities. She also leads among Catholics, voters in union households, and moderates. Obama leads among voters under 50, especially those under 30, and among liberals."

Hillary Clinton has a new Spanish-language ad running in Texas, reminding Latino voters that to truly support Clinton they should turn out twice ("dos veces") on Election Day — once in the primary, and a second time for that night's caucuses, which will pick one-third of the state's delegates.

Hillary has been out-organized by Barack Obama in every caucus state except Nevada, so the campaign definitely needs to work hard to prevent the caucus from giving Obama an extra delegate boost on Tuesday night.

(Via Ben Smith)

Most current polls show Barack Obama taking the lead in Texas, but one pollster argues that Hillary Clinton has in fact regained the momentum in the race. Here are the latest InsiderAdvantage numbers, compared to their previous poll from Monday:

Clinton 47% (+1)
Obama 43% (-4)

The internals show Hillary expanding her lead among Latinos, holding steady among whites, dropping slightly with women but making gains among men.

"If these trends continue over the coming days, then it might be fair to say the race is slowly drifting Clinton's way," said pollster Matt Towery, a former close aide to Newt Gingrich. "For now, I think it's at least fair to say that has turned momentum, to some degree, back in her direction."

Barack Obama was questioned at Tuesday night's debate by Tim Russert and Hillary Clinton about repudiating Louis Farrakhan's endorsement -- which Obama said was unsolicited -- in the strongest terms possible. He was repeatedly badgered by Russert, and was forced to disown Farrakhan over and over again.

The very next day, John McCain appeared onstage in Texas with Pastor John Hagee, an influential activist in the Christian Zionist movement. Hagee's comments about world affairs can make Farrakhan seem pedestrian at times: He eagerly awaits the Armageddon, considers the Catholic Church to be the Anti-Christ, and has said that Jews brought their own persecution upon themselves.

But when it came to McCain's rather controversial backer, the press hardly batted an eye. Seems like a pretty clear double standard, right?

Some readers might remember Hagee from this video put out last year by Max Blumenthal, from Hagee's Christians United For Israel conference. During the event, Hagee proclaimed that the United States must consider a preemptive strike on Iran, and also said that Jews had been responsible for their persecution throughout history because of a failure to properly accept God:

Blumenthal only scratched the surface here -- Hagee is a colorful character, to say the least. More available after the jump.

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More infighting in Camp Hillary? Clinton adviser Harold Ickes seems to stick the knife in Mark Penn in an interview with The New York Observer...

“Mark Penn has run this campaign,” said Ickes in a brief phone interview this morning. “Besides Hillary Clinton, he is the single most responsible person for this campaign.

“Now, he has been circumscribed to some extent by Maggie Williams,” said Ickes, who then pointed out that that was only a recent development.

When asked about the assertion by one senior Clinton official the campaign was effectively run by committee, diluting Penn’s authority, Ickes was incredulous.

“I don’t know what campaign you’re talking about,” said Ickes. “I have been at meetings where he introduces himself as the campaign’s chief strategist. I’ve heard him call himself that many times, say, ‘I am the chief strategist.’”

Asked if Penn preferred the title of chief strategist to pollster, Ickes said, “Prefer it? He insists on it!”

When asked if Penn was therefore responsible for the campaign’s strategy, Ickes said, “It’s pretty plain for anyone to see that he has shaped the strategy of the campaign. He has called the shots.”

“Mark Penn,” he said, “has dominated the message in this campaign. Dominated it.”

Ouch.

Hillary Clinton has a new ad up in Ohio, featuring popular Gov. Ted Strickland:

The ad's focus on jobs and looking out for the middle class would seem to have a clear aim — Barack Obama has been winning the votes of white men in many primaries, so it's natural for Hillary to try to shore up those votes with a pitch to working-class voters.

Hillary also has a radio ad focused around jobs, available here, and a radio ad featuring Strickland, available here.

A couple weeks ago we reported here that sources had told us that Obama was on track to raise more than $36 million this month.

This has turned out to be true, apparently. Obama spokesperson Bill Burton tells The Politico today that he's on track to announcing that the campaign has raised "considerably more" than $35 million.

Hillary is reported to have raised $35 million this month -- which means that Obama's haul is set to best Hillary's yet again and will overshadow what might have been a big announcement for her campaign.

Roy Norton, the minister of public affairs for the Canadian embassy, is flatly denying that any Obama campaign official spoke to the Canadian ambassador in recent days or told him that Obama's anti-NAFTA stump speech is merely "campaign rhetoric."

"No, none," Norton told me when I asked him if Michael Wilson, Canada's ambassador to the U.S., had spoken to any Obama advisers recently. He added: "Neither before the Ohio debate nor since has any presidential campaign called Ambassador Wilson about NAFTA."

Norton did allow, however, that the embassy on the staff level had discussed multiple issues, including NAFTA, with the Obama and Hillary campaigns at various times, and had urged them to look at NAFTA in a positive light.

"We've impressed upon them the fact that NAFTA has been good for all three countries," Norton said. "They have made it clear that NAFTA is an issue of contention in the [U.S.], and that inevitably there would be discussion and debate surrounding NAFTA."

"They've heard us out on the issue of NAFTA and expressed understanding for our position. But the candidates and their campaigns have been very careful to refrain from making specific commitments," Norton continued, reiterating that no such conversation like the one described in the Canadian TV report ever happened.

A key labor surrogate for Hillary, International Association of Machinists president Tom Buffenbarger, has now opened fire on Obama over the Canadian TV report suggesting that a senior Obama official privately assured a Canadian official that Obama's anti-NAFTA stump talk was just "campaign rhetoric."

From an IAM press release...

"I am appalled but not surprised by this report," said IAM International President Tom Buffenbarger. "Working families cannot trust a candidate who telegraphs his real position to a foreign government and then dissembles in a nationally televised debate."

The Obama campaign has released a statement that didn't address whether the conversation had happened but did say that the report inaccurately represented Obama's position on NAFTA. NAFTA is a highly-charged issue in Ohio. So a report like this -- and efforts like this one by Buffenbarger to keep the story going -- could conceivably have an impact on the primary, which is only days away.

Separately, it's worth keeping in mind that Buffenbarger apparently has little difficulty speaking his mind when it comes to Obama. He recently denounced Obama supporters as "latte-drinking, Prius- driving, Birkenstock-wearing, trust fund babies" and said that Obama wouldn't "last a round against the Republican attack machine."

Late Update: A Canadian embassy official flatly denies to ABC News that the conversation ever took place: "It didn't happen."

The Obama campaign has formally responded to the report on Canadian TV saying that a Canadian official claims a senior Obama person privately told him that Obama's anti-NAFTA talk on the stump was just "campaign rhetoric."

From Obama spokesperson Bill Burton:

“The news reports on Obama's position on NAFTA are inaccurate and in no way represent Senator Obama’s consistent position on trade. When Senator Obama says that he will forcefully act to make NAFTA a better deal for American workers, he means it. Both Canada and Mexico should know that, as president, Barack Obama will do what it takes to create and protect American jobs and strengthen the American economy -- that includes amending NAFTA to include labor and environmental standards. We are currently reaching out to the Canadian embassy to correct this inaccuracy."

It will be interesting to see whether the Ohio press -- not to mention the big news orgs -- run with the story despite the denial.

The new Rasmussen poll shows Barack Obama taking a four-point lead in the Texas primary. Here are the numbers, compared to the previous poll from Sunday:

Obama 48% (+3)
Clinton 44% (-2)

From the internals: Obama leads by 16 points with men, and trails among women by only 9 points.

A separate poll also showed a close race in Pennsylvania, with Hillary Clinton ahead 46%-42%.

The Tennessee Republican Party has edited an incendiary press release that accused Barack Obama of anti-Semitism and links to Louis Farrakhan, after the release was denounced by the national party, and after John McCain reportedly apologized to Obama.

The new version still contains the key accusations, only removing some particularly controversial elements, and now carries the following notice at the bottom:

*Clarification: This release originally referenced a photo of Sen. Obama and incorrectly termed it to be "Muslim" garb. It is, in fact, Somali tribal garb, hence, we have deleted the photo. Also, in order to diffuse attempts by Democrats and the Left to divert attention from the main point of this release — that Sen. Obama has surrounded himself with advisers and recieved endorsements from people who are anti-Semitic and anti-Israel — we have deleted the use of Barack Obama’s middle name.

A screen capture of the original version is available here.

A new report from Canada's CTV says that according to Canadian government sources, a senior official from the Obama campaign secretly assured a Canadian official not to take Obama's talk about threatening to pull out of NAFTA too seriously, noting that it was just "campaign rhetoric":

Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs did not strictly deny the allegations, only saying that it sounded implausible to him. "Senator Obama does not make promises he doesn't intend to keep," Gibbs added. Clinton campaign officials strongly denied similar allegations.

If this report catches on, it has the potential undermine Obama's outreach to working-class whites in Ohio, many of whom still resent the Clinton Administration's passage of the free trade deal back in the 90s. It could also take the steam out of the Obama campaign's claims that Hillary favored NAFTA, something she denies.

Late Update: The Obama camp is calling the story "inaccurate."

John McCain went to Texas yesterday to accept the endorsement of megachurch leader and televangelist John Hagee, a leading figure in the Christian Zionist movement. However, the Dallas Morning News notes that McCain avoided a question about Hagee's eschatological brand of theology. "All I can tell you is I'm very proud to have pastor Hagee's support," McCain said.

Hagee's teachings, as laid out in books of his such as Jerusalem Countdown, center around the viewpoint that the Bible has prophesied the current war on terror, that the United States and Israel should wage a preemptive strike against Iran and any other Middle Eastern countries who pose a threat to Israel, and that an imminent war over Israel will culminate in the Second Coming.

Hillary Clinton is distancing herself from comments by Dallas supporter and Hispanic community leader Adelfa Callejo, who said yesterday that Barack Obama would have trouble gaining Latino support because he "simply has a problem that he happens to be black."

A local TV station asked Hillary a question reminiscent of Tim Russert's exchange with Barack Obama, asking if she rejects Callejo's support. "I want us judged on our merits," Clinton said. "I believe strongly that the fact that we have an African-American and a woman running for the Democratic nomination is historical and I'm very, very proud of that. I want people though to look beyond, look beyond race and gender, look at our records, look what we stand for, look what we've done."

The campaign later issued a statement: "After confirming that they were accurately portrayed, Senator Clinton, of course, denounces and rejects them."

People who are sick of the Muslim smears directed at Barack Obama should feel encouraged with the new Associated Press article that will be printed in newspapers across the country, entitled "Obama fights false links to Islam."

The lead sentence: "For Barack Obama, it is an ember that he has doused time and again, only to see it flicker anew: links to Islam fanned by false rumors, innuendo and association." From there it goes over every last rumor that's been out there, from the e-mails to the madrassa stories to the folks who emphasize his middle name, and in every case unambiguously reminds the reader that he is not a Muslim.

Whether this article actually changes anyone's mind remains to be seen, but it's definitely an encouraging sign for how mainstream press coverage will proceed, should he win the nomination.

In a guest column in the New York Times, Mike Bloomberg has now confirmed yet again, but in more detailed terms, that he will not be running for president.

"I listened carefully to those who encouraged me to run, but I am not — and will not be — a candidate for president," Bloomberg writes. "I have watched this campaign unfold, and I am hopeful that the current campaigns can rise to the challenge by offering truly independent leadership. The most productive role that I can serve is to push them forward, by using the means at my disposal to promote a real and honest debate."

Bloomberg left open the possibility that he would endorse one of the current candidates for president, if he saw a candidate who "takes an independent, nonpartisan approach — and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy."

Hillary's campaign has over a dozen press secretaries -- in Texas alone. Obama's campaign has 16 field offices in the state. And Texas has an astonishing number of media markets: Twenty in all.

The surprisingly large numbers attest to a political fact that could prove decisive in this election: Texas is a huge and immensely complex state that has both campaigns equally reluctant to predict the outcome next Tuesday.

So what's the state of play in Texas right now? Here's a quick snapshot.

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Two days ago, the Tennessee Republican Party put out a press release entitled "Anti-Semites For Obama," accusing "Barack Hussein Obama" of being anti-Israel and linked to Louis Farrakhan. And just to sweeten the deal, they included the picture of Obama in native African clothing:

(Click picture to enlarge.)

State party chair Robin Smith defended the release to the Knoxville News Sentinel, despite the fact that John McCain has asked his supporters not to use such attacks in the wake of the Bill Cunningham flap.

"John McCain has to be elected. Robin Smith doesn't," Smith said. "We have a duty to inform the Republican base."

Barack Obama has a new Spanish-language ad in Texas, with a focus on education that would seem to be a play for younger Latino voters:

Obama also has this English ad, in which he's promoted as the candidate who will take on Washington lobbyists:

After about two weeks of confusing reports about whether he was really switching his endorsement from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama, Congressman John Lewis (D-GA) has made it official.

"Something's happening in America, something some of us did not see coming," Lewis told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "Barack Obama has tapped into something that is extraordinary."

Lewis' defection to Obama is definitely a hit to Hillary Clinton's strategy of using a super-delegate advantage to secure the nomination, as the civil rights leader's switch could end up being a big green light for other Hillary supporters to follow him.

Meanwhile, Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) announced his endorsement of Barack Obama, too, on an Obama campaign conference call.

(Via Ben Smith)

So Obama hit back at McCain's mockery of him over Al Qaeda Iraq by saying what we'd hoped he'd say:

"I have some news for John McCain," Obama said, according to The Politico. "There was no Al Qaeda in Iraq until George Bush and John McCain" started their war.

That will likely become a stock message for Obama. He also uncorked this:

"John McCain may like to say he wants to follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of Hell, but so far all he’s done is follow George Bush into a misguided war in Iraq."

The Obama campaign has been arguing that he can draw a sharper contrast with McCain than Hillary can because of her support for the war. Such high-profile skirmishes over Iraq with McCain can only help Obama, because they do drive this point home while signaling to Dems that the GOP, at least, views his nomination as a foregone conclusion.

Uh oh -- the pre-general election skirmishing over Iraq is starting in earnest. At an event today, John McCain mocked Obama for saying at yesterday's debate that he would act as president "if Al-Qaeda is forming a base in Iraq."

At the debate, Obama said:

"As commander in chief, I will always reserve the right to make sure that we are looking out for American interests. And if al-Qaida is forming a base in Iraq, then we will have to act in a way that secures the American homeland and our interests abroad." The key being the word "if."

McCain rejoined today: "When you examine that statement, it's pretty remarkable. I have some news. Al-Qaida is in Iraq. It's called `al-Qaida in Iraq,'"

We have some news, too, incidentally: If the war McCain supported had never been waged, there wouldn't have been any Al Qaeda in Iraq in the first place.

It's worth noting, incidentally, that recent history shows that Republican presidential contenders have proven better at using such mockery to their advantage than Dems have. George W. Bush got a great deal of mileage out of mocking both Al Gore and John Kerry in a way neither Dem could manage.

Obama, of course, is far more verbally dexterous than either Dem, so he may be able to parry such stuff far more effectively and even use humor as an effective weapon himself.

Either way, it's a bit of a preview of what's to come. We'll see how the Obama camp responds.

Late Update: Obama responds.

Hillary supporter Lanny Davis added a new dimension to the Hillary camp's bash-the-press-for-being-soft-on-Obama strategy, asserting on Morning Joe that "it's very hard to criticize Senator Obama without being accused of playing the race card"...

This seems a bit over the top. It would have been fair if Davis had said that there have been times where people were too quick to tar Clinton criticisms of Obama as playing the race card, rather than suggesting that this applies across the board.

The Hillary Clinton campaign is taking a temporary step back from their super-delegate strategy, the Huffington Post reports, and trying to get super-delegates to not endorse for now.

The rationale is that supers at this juncture might break for Barack Obama in large numbers, so as to stop the primary race and move on to the general election.

A set of e-mailed talking points to supporters advances a counter-argument: "If House, Senate and DNC members try to end this process now, it would be very damaging to those institutions, the Democratic Party and our chances in November."

Hillary -- who's fighting off Obama's efforts to make inroads into Hillary's working class base -- hits the airwaves in Texas with a straightforward populist economic spot that emphasizes her willingness to fight for the struggling lower middle class and her longevity in public service...

Hillary Clinton's Congressional supporters are largely rejecting calls to change their super-delegate votes to match the popular vote, The Hill reports, but it's not completely a united front in favor of the system itself.

Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), whose district went for Barack Obama, said he is so committed to Hillary that he'll keep on backing her at the convention unless he dies first. Similar sentiments were expressed by Rep. Diane Watson (D-CA) and Bill Pascrell (D-NJ), and Shelley Berkley (D-NV), though not in quite such colorful terms.

On the other hand there is Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-IA), who is still for Hillary, but also hinted that he might support changes to the system or an end to it entirely. Boswell also hedged on whether he'd support Hillary at the convention itself. "At some point I may have to discuss that with Sen. Clinton," he said. "Historically we have not gone to this type of convention, and I hope we don't."

The new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania shows that Hillary Clinton has lost her once-mighty lead over Barack Obama, and now only six points separate them for this April 22 race. Here are the numbers, compared to the previous poll from just two weeks ago:

Clinton 49% (-3)
Obama 43% (+7)

From the internals: Hillary leads 53%-39% among women, while Obama is ahead 50%-43% among men. Hillary's lead among white men is at 48%-45%, and 61%-31% among white women.

Hillary's roadmap to the nomination includes wins in Texas and Ohio, followed by a big Pennsylvania win seven weeks later. But these polls shows that Pennsylvania — the last big Northeastern state not to have voted — could suddenly be a tough race by itself.

The Obama campaign achieved a new milestone this morning, officially claiming their one-millionth donor:

Bear in mind that this isn't about having one-million donations, but rather one-million people who have donated to the Obama campaign.

This is interesting. When Hillary said the other day that she was "honored" to have campaigned against Obama, multiple pundits read it as a valedictory speech on her part, a recognition that the campaign is drawing to a close.

Now Obama has sounded similar tones, saying in his debate closer tonight:

You know, there is still a lot of fight going on in this contest. We’ve got four coming up and maybe more after that. But the one thing I’m absolutely clear about is: Senator Clinton has campaigned magnificently, she is an outstanding public servant, and I’m very proud to have been campaigning with her.

It's hard not to read this comment as a kind of a bookend to Hillary's earlier remarks: He seems to be suggesting that this thing is all over, he knows it, and it's time to let her go down to defeat gracefully.

This wasn't an easy call, given what we've heard thus far (a question about Drudge, a gratuitous reference to Tim Russert's blue collar background, etc.).

But the inane question of the night award goes to this Russert inanity, which we just heard moments ago:

"Do you accept the support of Louis Farrahkan?"

Obama, unsurprisingly, denounced Farrakhan, and used the occasion to argue that there's yet another historic dimension to his candidacy:

"What I want to do is rebuild what I consider to be a historic relationship between the African-American community and the Jewish community."

Hillary, in her rejoinder, seems to suggest that Obama didn't go far enough:

"There’s a difference between denouncing and rejecting. And I think that when it comes to this sort of inflammatory — I have no doubt that everything Barack just said is absolutely sincere. But I just think that we’ve got to be even stronger. We cannot let anyone in any way say these things, because of the implications that they have, which can be so far-reaching."

Obama's response: There isn't a difference between "reject" and "denounce," but if anyone thinks there is a difference, he rejects and denounces Farrakhan.

Hmmm. Maybe this will give the Hillary camp a bit of grist for their media-is-out-to-get-us theory.

Brian Williams told the audience that he was about to play a tape of some Obama hyperbole, presumably as a set-up to ask a tough question about it. But then he accidentally played a clip of Hillary delivering her recent sarcastic denunciation of the messianism of Obama supporters, something that attracted a bunch of criticism.

And, of course, Obama jumped on the opportunity, using it to hit Hillary for denigrating his actual accomplishments, throwing in a dose of humor, too: "Well, I thought Senator Clinton showed some good humor there. I’d give her points for delivery."

She really can't catch a break, can she...

Debate moderator Tim Russert goes out of his way to remind viewers of his Buffalo blue collar background in a question he asks about Hillary's economic plan....

I’ve had a chance to read it very carefully. It does say that you pledge to create 5 million new jobs over ten years. And I was reminded of your campaign in 2000, in Buffalo — my hometown, just three hours down Route 90 — where you pledged 200,000 new jobs for Upstate New York. There’s been a net loss of 30,000 jobs.

Russert is at the top of his profession. Why does he need to waste our time telling us what a salt-of-the-earth blue collar background he has? Why do we need to be told that he knows something about what's where on "Route 90"? Do we really care?

The Hillary camp's grievance with the press, which has been mostly expressed by her aides with increasing intensity, suddenly comes out of the mouth of Hillary herself.

And it takes an odd form: A complaint that she's always the person who's asked questions first at the debate. As she put it...

Well could I just point out that in the last several debates, I seem to get the first question all the time. And I don’t mind, I’ll be happy to field them. But I do find it curious. And if anybody saw Saturday Night Live, maybe we should ask Barack if he’s comfortable and needs another pillow.

It's curious just how aggressively the Hillary camp has been working to draw attention to the SNL skit. Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer went out of his way to bring it up at a breakfast with reporters yesterday.

Now Hillary, in what is almost certainly a planned moment, brings it up herself, suggesting that the Hillary camp thinks they're hitting some kind of pop culture chord by pointing this out.

Wow, that didn't take long. Brian Williams waited all the way until his second question to ask about the Drudge allegation that Hillary "staffers" allegedly "circulated" a photo of Obama in a turban, whatever that means.

The sole evidence that this happened at all has come only -- we repeat, only -- from Matt Drudge. Yet it's already a topic at this all-important debate.

Asked if her campaign was behind the photo, Hillary said:

"Well, so far as I know, it did not. And I certainly know nothing about it, and have made clear that that’s not the kind of behavior that I condone or expect from the people working in my campaign. But we have no evidence where it came from."

In his response, Obama, to his credit, immediately dismissed the story (though his campaign aggressively attacked Hillary over it a couple days ago). He said:

"I take Sen. Clinton at her word that she knew nothing about it — the photo. So I think that’s something that we could set aside."

So can we set it aside now, then?

The Hillary-Obama debate is set to start in 20 minutes.

As Josh points out, it could very likely be the last debate between Hillary and Obama of this campaign -- possibly the last one we ever witness between these two inarguably formidable figures.

Equally sobering: This campaign, which has dragged on for so long, could conceivably be over in a week. A lot depends on what happens tonight.

The debate is airing on MSNBC at 9 P.M., E.S.T. We'll be blogging it right here.

CNN devotes a sizable segment to the Hillary camp's line that the news media is giving Obama largely "rock star" coverage while giving Hillary the back of its collective hand...

CNN's Howie Kurtz: "It's hard to deny that Senator Obama has gotten largely upbeat coverage."

So the Hillary campaign's repeated complaints of media hostility towards her are, in however limited a way, succeeding at injecting this analysis into the daily media conversation. It remains to be seen whether this will shift the coverage itself, and whether that even matters at this point.

Separately, tonight's debate between Hillary and Obama starts tonight at 9 P.M. EST. We'll be blogging it right here.

In what could be Camp Hillary's hardest hit on the press yet, a Hillary spokesman slams reporters for using Drudge as their "assignment editor" on the Obama Somali garb pic story.

An extended take on this is here.

Here's another sign that the Obama campaign is trying to shift their rhetorical gears towards a general election — and perhaps get the political and media classes to treat the Democratic nomination as a foregone conclusion.

The Obama campaign is now publicly thanking John McCain for distancing himself from derogatory comments made by Ohio talk-radio host Bill Cunningham at a campaign event. While the crowd was waiting for McCain to arrive, Cunningham declared among other things that the media would soon "peel the bark off Barack Hussein Obama" and find out the truth about his "sweetheart deals" in Chicago.

"I did not know about these remarks but I take responsibility for them. I repudiate them," McCain told reporters. "My entire campaign I have treated Senator Obama and Senator Clinton with respect. I will continue to do that throughout this campaign."

"We appreciate Senator McCain’s remarks," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton, in a statement. "It is a sign that if there is a McCain-Obama general election, it can be intensely competitive but the candidates will attempt to keep it respectful and focused on issues."

In recent days, the Hillary campaign has audibly turned up the volume of its attacks not just on Barack Obama, but on the news media, too.

The sight of Hillary advisers attacking the press is suddenly everywhere -- and there's been a shift in the tone of the attacks that is striking. The suggestion is no longer merely that the coverage of Hillary is unfair and that the treatment of Obama is glowing, something that Hillaryland insiders have complained of for a long time.

Rather, the new suggestion is that the press is reveling in Hillary's downfall, and that this lust to see Hillary lose is driving coverage.

Read more »

Today's new SurveyUSA poll shows Hillary Clinton's once-enormous lead down to six points, consistent with other polls that have shown this to be a tight race. Here are the numbers, compared to the previous poll from a week ago:

Clinton 50% (-2)
Obama 44% (+1)

The internals show a very noticeable gender gap — Hillary leads 58%-36% among women, while Obama leads 55%-39% among men.

Courtesy of John Solomon's Washington Times, the next wingnut attack on Obama appears to be that senior members of the U.S. military establishment allegedly "fear" an Obama Presidency.

A new poll from Public Policy Poll (D) shows Hillary Clinton and Barack tied at 48% each for next week's primary.

From the internals: Obama wins the white vote 51%-44%, Hillary wins Hispanics 66%-27%, and Obama wins African-Americans 73%-27%.

PPP did not have a previous Texas survey for comparison.

A new Rasmussen poll shows the Ohio primary continuing to tighten. Here are the numbers, compared to last week's survey:

Clinton 48% (+0)
Obama 43% (+3)

Only two weeks ago, Hillary Clinton enjoyed a 51%-37% lead over Barack Obama, but now it's down to a five-point race. In comparison to other pollsters, Quinnipiac has Hillary ahead by 11, the University of Cincinnati has her ahead by 8, PPP (D) by 4, and ARG by 10.

Ohio Dems view Obama as a NAFTA opponent by a 53%-14% margin, while 35% think Hillary is in favor of it, 31% say she's opposed, and the remaining 34% aren't sure. In a state where NAFTA is opposed by most voters, this would seem to suggest that Obama's attacks against Hillary over the issue have helped him chip away at her lead.

A day after Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson unloaded big time on the news media, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, a key Hillary surrogate, hit the media again in an interview:

"The media does not like the Clintons for whatever reason," Rendell, a Clinton supporter, said in an interview with The Fix. "Maybe some of it's [the Clintons'] fault, but the media does not like the Clintons."

Rendell insisted that the "media has relished this fall with glee that I have never seen in any other candidate in the thirty years I have been in the business."

As Ben Smith noted, Wolfson absolutely blistered the press on a conference call yesterday, saying that "the press has largely applauded" Obama's attacks on Hillary.

Between that and Rendell sounding a similar note today -- that the media is actively enjoying Hillary's downfall -- it seems that a key part of the Clinton camp's endgame strategy is a rearguard effort to shame the media into toughening up its coverage of Obama.

A new article from the Associated Press paints a less-than-flattering picture of Barack Obama's work in the Senate on foreign policy issues:

Aside from his vigorous opposition to the Iraq war, Obama spent more of his time on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on speeches and inspirational trips than on investigations and aggressive oversight. He was a junior senator with an agreeable manner who was just beginning to cut his teeth on foreign policy issues when he decided to run for president.

Barack Obama's recent gains in big union endorsements are bringing him some serious organizational muscle. SEIU alone has reported that they have spent $1.4 million on Obama's behalf in Texas and Ohio.

With that support, though, comes an accusation of hypocrisy from the Clinton camp, which noted Obama's condemnation of outside spending on behalf of John Edwards in the Iowa caucus. "When it was in Obama’s interest to criticize Edwards over outside spending, he did so," Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson told reporters yesterday. "Now when it is in his interest to remain silent, he is."

The Obama campaign responded in a statement: "Senator Obama has long said that he would prefer those who want to support him to do it directly through the campaign."

A new AP/Ipsos poll released last night gives Barack Obama a three-point national lead over Hillary Clinton. While it's not as big a lead as the Gallup and CBS/New York Times polls that put him up by double digits, all the polls are nevertheless showing clear momentum in Obama's favor.

Here are the numbers, compared to the last poll from about two weeks ago:

Obama 46% (+5)
Clinton 43% (-3)

And for the general election match-ups:

Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 41%
Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 39%

Chris Dodd, who quit the presidential race after his poor showing in Iowa, will reportedly endorse Barack Obama today. Dodd then plans to hit the trail alongside Obama in Ohio.

Dodd's home state of Connecticut voted 51%-47% for Obama on Super Tuesday.

The new CBS/New York Times poll gives Barack Obama a huge 16-point national lead over Hillary Clinton, providing some corroboration to the USA Today/Gallup poll from earlier today that had him ahead by 12 point. Here are the numbers, compared to the last poll from early February:

Obama 54% (+13)
Clinton 38% (-3)

And in the general election match-ups, Obama is also the stronger of the two Democrats against John McCain:

Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 38%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%

A new SurveyUSA poll in Texas gives Barack Obama a narrow lead, in line with a CNN poll released earlier today. Here are the numbers, compared to the previous SUSA poll from last week:

Obama 49% (+4)
Clinton 45% (-5)

Key internal statistic: A week ago, Hillary led among women by 27 points — but now only leads by 11.

The margin of error is ±3.8%, so this is still technically a dead heat. Nevertheless, it's good news for Obama and bad news for Hillary.

Here's a quick roundup of the super-delegate news from today:

• Geraldine Ferraro, who is supporting Hillary Clinton, had an op-ed in today's New York Times advancing an argument in favor of super-delegates that we haven't really heard yet during this cycle: That Democratic primaries, as well as caucuses, "do not necessarily reflect the will of rank-and-file Democrats."

• Cincinnati Mayor Mark Mallory, a DNC member and a potentially good get for the Ohio primary, has endorsed Barack Obama.

• Rhode Island Mayor David Cicilline is now hedging on his support for Hillary Clinton after he was asked not to attend a campaign rally: "I will take a hard look at my responses as a super-delegate, in light of the will of the electorate."

• Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD), a former John Edwards supporter, says she is leaning towards Obama, citing "that intangible leadership quality" and the feeling that he would appear to be the more electable candidate.

Gov. Janet Napolitano, a key backer of Barack Obama, was asked on CNN a little while ago about the photo of Obama in Somali garb that Drudge said unnamed Hillary staffers had "circulated." From her reply:

Oh, I think it's irrelevant to the issues of the campaign. I know there's some back and forth today; the Clinton campaign says they have nothing to do with it. I take them at their word. We need to move on. The people of the United States, the people out in Arizona aren't interested in a photo. What they're interested in is a president who will lead; who will help them deal with the economy, with health care, with foreign policy, and by the way with a new vision for the war in Iraq.

Just to review what happened today: Matt Drudge, a proven and repeated inventor of facts and serial slimer of Dems, reported that unnamed Hillary "staffers" had "circulated" this email and photo. He didn't say who the staffers were or at what level they exist in the campaign. He didn't say who the photo was circulated to. Based on what Drudge reported and nothing more, the Obama campaign attacked the Hillary camp for engaging in dirty politics.

Of course, the Hillary campaign did not deny this at the outset and it took them until this afternoon to disown the campaign's official involvement. So the Hillary campaign complied in keeping the story going, and fueled suspicions that there might be something to it.

But when it comes right down to it, nobody has any evidence of the existence of this email beyond what Drudge said. And again, he didn't even make any specific allegation beyond saying it had been "circulated," which has no meaning. Nonetheless, this has somehow been among the major stories of the day.

Late Update: The Clinton campaign, understandably, is emailing around the Napolitano quote to reporters.

The new CNN poll of Texas has some big news, putting Barack Obama ahead in this important March 4 primary, although the results aren't quite conclusive.

Here are the numbers, compared to last week:

Obama 50% (+2)
Clinton 46% (-4)

With a margin of error of ±3.5%, the race is still a statistical dead heat. From the pollster's analysis: "The 2-point gain for Obama and the 4-point drop for Clinton are both within the poll's sampling error, so although the survey appears to indicate some movement toward Obama, we cannot say for certain that he has gained any ground since last week."

Texas has become a key firewall state for Hillary, and even Bill Clinton himself said she needs to win both here and in Ohio on March 4, or else she won't become the nominee.

Here's a surprising number from the new Gallup Poll: Obama has, for the first time in Gallup polling, taken a double-digit lead over Hillary among national Dems. He leads her 51%-39%.

Separately, in another startling finding, nearly three out of four Dems say Obama will be the nominee (73%), versus only a fifth (20%) who say Hillary will.

Obama holds a much slimmer lead in Gallup's national tracking poll, but as MyDD's Jonathan Singer, who first flagged these numbers, points out, the stand-alone poll appears to be bigger "news," which "could serve to reinforce the meme that Obama is pulling ahead" and is running away with the race.

A new Rasmussen poll of Texas shows a statistical dead heat between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The results aren't too different from the last poll from four days ago:

Clinton 46% (-1)
Obama 45% (+1)

The two results are a big change, however, from the poll released 10 days ago — then it was Hillary 54%, Obama 38%.

Hillary leads by five points among women, who are projected to make up 57% of the Dem electorate, while Obama leads by seven with men. The poll also shows the age gap we've seen in many other states, with Hillary leading among voters over 50 and Obama winning voters under 50.

On a conference call with reporters just now, Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson strongly denied any official campaign role in pushing the photo of Obama in a turban and Somali garb.

Drudge reported this morning that Clinton staffers had "circulated" the photo. He didn't say who circulated it, what level of Clinton staffer had circulated it, or to whom it had been circulated. Drudge is the sole source for this email's existence. Nonetheless, the media has been all over the story today.

Asked if the campaign had any role, Wolfson said, "No, not to my knowledge...I've never seen that picture before. I'm not aware that anyone else here has. I'm not aware that anyone here has circulated this e-mail."

Wolfson did say, however, that the campaign agreed with part of the message in the email -- that if the same photo had appeared of Hillary, it would have been a big story: "It is a common view among this campaign and our supporters that there is a difference in how the media covers our campaign and how it covers Senator Obama."

Wolfson also grew exasperated with a reporter who pressed the issue, saying: "If you have any original reporting to suggest that this campaign was circulating this e-mail, please let me know."

"We've been very clear that we're not aware of it," he added. "Obviously the campaign didn't sanction it, and don't know anything about it."

A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows the Ohio primary to be at its narrowest margin yet from any pollster. Hillary Clinton still has the lead, but it's a bare 50%-46% edge over Barack Obama.

"Hillary Clinton is in big trouble," said Dean Debnam, president of PPP, in the polling memo. "As recently as a week ago many polls in the state were showing her with around a 20 point lead. The race is trending heavily toward Obama and time is on his side with another eight day before the voting."

From the internals: Hillary leads 55%-42% among women, while Obama leads 51%-45% with men. Hillary leads 56%-40% among core Democrats, while Obama is ahead 64%-33% with independents and 80%-13% among crossover Republicans.

Hillary spokesperson Mo Elleithee, traveling with the campaign, offers some more push-back against the Obama camp's criticism over the Drudge story saying Clinton staffers "circulated" a photo of Obama in Somali garb:

“We have over 700 people on staff. I don’t know if someone on our staff sent it out or not," Elleithee said. “If someone on our staff makes the point that we are treated differently by the press than Sen. Obama, we agree with that sentiment. We don’t think there’s anything wrong with this photo. Sen. Clinton has herself, while traveling abroad, dressed in traditional, local dress. And there’s nothing divisive about that."

He also tried to push back at Obama: "We think it is wrong for the Obama campaign to say that this is divisive photo. It’s not a divisive photo."

The Hillary camp's earlier push-back didn't address the question of whether the Clinton camp had "circulated" the email; now this Clinton spokesperson is saying he doesn't know if any Clinton staffer had any role in it, and is saying that moving the photo shouldn't be seen as controversial in any case.

It's worth pointing out that the sole source thus far for the existence of this email is Drudge, and he didn't say what level of Clinton "staffer" circulated it and to whom it was circulated. Yet this is still commanding a huge amount of attention.

Curious to know what the GOP attack machine has in store for Obama, should he become the nominee?

We have a handy preview for you right here.

Here's the statement just out from Clinton campaign manager Maggie Williams, responding to the Obama campaign's criticism of Hillary over a Drudge story saying that Clinton staffers had "circulated" a photo of Obama in Somali garb and a turban:

Enough.

If Barack Obama's campaign wants to suggest that a photo of him wearing traditional Somali clothing is divisive, they should be ashamed. Hillary Clinton has worn the traditional clothing of countries she has visited and had those photos published widely.

This is nothing more than an obvious and transparent attempt to distract from the serious issues confronting our country today and to attempt to create the very divisions they claim to decry.

We will not be distracted.

More in a bit.

A new poll from the University of Cincinnati corroborates other polls that have shown Hillary Clinton with a medium-sized lead over Barack Obama. Hillary has 47% to Obama's 39%, with a very noticeable gender gap — Obama leads among men 45%-42%, while Hillary wins big with women at 52%-34%.

Matt Drudge is leading with a story saying that Clinton staffers "circulated" a photo of Obama in a turban and Somali village elder garb over the weekend.

Drudge's story doesn't report who the photo was "circulated" to, who provided it to him, what level of Clinton "staffer" circulated it, or how widely it was circulated.

We've contacted the Hillary campaign and they've not said anything about it yet.

The Obama campaign is already out with a statement from campaign manager David Plouffe condemning the Hillary campaign and saying it's part of a "disturbing pattern" from Camp Hillary:

“On the very day that Senator Clinton is giving a speech about restoring respect for America in the world, her campaign has engaged in the most shameful, offensive fear-mongering we’ve seen from either party in this election. This is part of a disturbing pattern that led her county chairs to resign in Iowa, her campaign chairman to resign in New Hampshire, and it’s exactly the kind of divisive politics that turns away Americans of all parties and diminishes respect for America in the world."

It's unclear whether the Obama camp has any evidence or info as to what happened beyond what appeared on Drudge.

More in a bit.

Late Update: The Hillary campaign responds.

The new Quinnipiac Poll is out (no link available yet), and it finds that Hillary is maintaining a comfortable lead over Obama in the must-win state of Ohio, 51%-40%.

However, that margin is down significantly from the last Q-poll, in mid-February, which had Hillary leading 55%-34%.

Quinnipiac also says that Obama is making inroads among key Hillary constituencies, concluding: “If she is to stop his momentum in Ohio, she must retain her margins among her core backers – women, older voters and those lower on the social-economic and education scale.”

One bright spot for Hillary: She is viewed more favorably than he by likely Dem primary voters.

We'll bring you the full poll when it's available.

Late Update: The full poll is available here.

The New York Times reports this morning that John McCain's involvement in the 2005 Gang of 14 compromise, which stopped a Republican move to end Democratic filibusters on judicial appointments, is still the cause of some resentment among conservative activists. "He needs to do some formulation of 'No more Souters,'" in order to undo the damage, said Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention.

For his part, McCain said a lot of conservatives would now appreciate the idea of a super-majority needed to confirm a controversial judge, given the increased likelihood of a Democratic president and Senate: "Find me a Republican senator who now supports 51 votes for the confirmation of a judge."

The Republican Party has gotten around to confronting a new challenge this cycle will present — how to deal effectively with either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton without appearing racist or sexist. The party has commissioned polling and focus groups designed to test how far they can go with an attack, and where the line is between an effective attack versus one that alienates voters.

"You can't run against Barack Obama the way you could run against Bill Clinton, Al Gore or John Kerry,” said 1996 vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp, who added a simple message: "You have to be careful."

At a rally today in Providence, Rhode Island, Hillary Clinton didn't withhold her contempt for Barack Obama's message, working the crowd into laughter through mockery of Obama as hopelessly naive: "Now, I could stand up here and say, let's just get everybody together, let's get unified — the sky will open the light will come down, Celestial choirs will be singing, and everyone will know we should do the right thing and the world will be perfect!"

"Maybe I’m just lived a little long but I have no illusions about how hard this is going to be," she said. "You are not going to wave a magic wand and have the special interests disappear!"

The Huffington Post has video here.

Barack Obama rebutted today the charge that it is unfair for him to attack Hillary Clinton over her husband's NAFTA policy in the 1990s. At a press conference in Ohio, Obama said that since Hillary has used "35 years of experience, including eight years in the White House" as a premise for her candidacy, she can't claim just the good parts of Bill's administration as her own, and declare other issues off limits.

"The notion that you can selectively pick what you take credit for and then run away from what isn't politically convenient, that doesn't make sense," Obama said. "If she suggested she had nothing to do with economic policy in the Clinton White House, then it would not be fair for me to bring it up but as you know, that's not the claim that she is making."

In a widely anticipated move, Ralph Nader announced this morning on Meet The Press that he is running for president again as an independent. Nader acknowledged that he has no chance of winning, but felt his candidacy can do good for the country:

One feels an obligation, Tim, to try to open the doorways, to try to get better ballot access, to respect dissent in America in the terms of third parties and, and independent candidates; to recognize historically that great issues have come in our history against slavery and women rights to vote and worker and farmer progressives, through little parties that never ran--won any national election. Dissent is the mother of ascent. And in that context, I have decided to run for president.

Nader does have a point. For example, nobody can reasonably deny that Nader's 2000 campaign changed the course of history.

A new article in the New York Times about the Clinton campaign isn't going to help the narrative they'd want to be setting about a campaign gearing up for a comeback. Quite the opposite, the campaign is depicted as a sorry bunch preparing for their final defeat:

Morale is low. After 13 months of dawn-to-dark seven-day weeks, the staff is exhausted. Some have taken to going home early — 9 p.m. — turning off their BlackBerrys, and polishing off bottles of wine, several senior staff members said.

Some advisers have been heard yelling at close friends and colleagues. In a much-reported incident, Mr. Penn and the campaign advertising chief, Mandy Grunwald, had a screaming match over strategy recently that prompted another senior aide, Guy Cecil, to leave the room. “I have work to do — you're acting like kids,” Mr. Cecil said, according to three people in the room.

Others have taken several days off, despite it being crunch time. Some have grown depressed, be it over Mr. Obama's momentum, the attacks on the campaign's management from outside critics or their view that the news media has been much rougher on Mrs. Clinton than on Mr. Obama.