A new look at the election results from Super Tuesday could end up giving Barack Obama a few more delegates from New York — it turns out that hundreds of voting machines in New York City initially reported zero votes for him, the New York Times reports, but those numbers are now finally coming in through a formal review.

The executive director of the city's Board of Elections said that while such counting errors often happen as a result of human error, "they're not usually that big."

Indeed, even a Hillary-supporting state Assemblyman said that a margin of 118-0 in one precinct "has to be a mistake."

In a sign of just how much effort Barack Obama is putting into the Wisconsin primary, he's vastly outspending Hillary Clinton on ads for the Madison and Milwaukee media markets, which make up the two biggest Democratic strongholds in the state. All in all, Obama has spent $831,880 on TV ads for those two media markets, compared to Hillary's $180,990 — a 4-1 margin on the spending.

And speaking of Obama's Wisconsin ads, here's his latest one rebutting the "same old politics" of Hillary Clinton's charge that he's dodging debates:

Ben Smith thinks the fact that we've had four ads in Wisconsin on this subject, two from Hillary and two from Obama, means the issue could be getting some real traction.

The Democratic National Committee has given me what appears to be Howard Dean's most extensive and detailed answer to date on the role of super-delegates amid the ongoing battle between Hillary and Obama for their support.

Dean's verdict: "Their role is to exercise their best judgment in the interests of the nation and of the Democratic Party."

Yesterday, I posed a question to the DNC: Does Dean think that the super-dels should support the candidate who ends up with the most pledged dels, or should the super-dels feel free to support whichever candidate they think is best for the party and the nation?

The DNC sent over this answer from Dean, which I'm quoting in full:

Some commentators have misrepresented who the “superdelegates” are and what their role is supposed to be. While it's premature to speculate what will happen as the process continues to unfold given that there are still over 1,000 pledged delegates yet to be selected, let’s look at who Undpledged delegates or "super delegates" are.

They are a diverse group of individuals who come from all parts of the country and all walks of life. They are local grassroots activists, county Party chairs, and local elected officials. They include all members of the DNC, all Democratic Members of Congress and all Democratic Governors, and a few former party leaders - all of whom have been elected by the people of their states and districts. Virtually all members of the DNC have been elected by their state party committees or Conventions, who in turn have been elected by grassroots Democratic voters. These members of the DNC have earned their positions by doing the difficult, unglamorous work of building the party organization day in and day out, when nobody is paying attention, year after year.

Their role is to exercise their best judgment in the interests of the nation and of the Democratic Party. I am confident that they will carry out that duty responsibly and in accordance with the highest values of our democracy and our Party.

So, unlike other party leaders, such as Nancy Pelosi and John Lewis, Dean is not calling on the super-dels to follow the pledged dels. He doesn't explicitly endorse the position of either Obama or Hillary -- which is perhaps to be expected, given his position -- but he does say that "their role is to exercise their best judgment."

Late Update: Ben Smith argues that Dean's position "seems closer to Hillary's."

On Wednesday we brought you a post totaling up the popular votes cast so far for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, concluding that Obama's lead to date is so strong that it still holds even if you include Michigan and Florida — which is to be expected, considering that Democratic primaries allocate pledged delegates on a roughly proportional basis, and he currently has a big lead with pledged delegates. But this invites another question: How would the two candidates be doing if Dem primaries were winner-take-all, like many Republican contests?

We did the math over here, hypothetically assigning all delegates from a state to whoever won that primary or caucus, and here's what we get:

States With Recognized Delegates

	Delegates
Obama	1,096
Clinton	1,075

Including Florida And Michigan

	Delegates
Obama	1,096
Clinton	1,414

Further analysis after the jump.

Read more »

This seems significant, as it may be the first real dissent by a high-profile neutral party from the emerging notion that the super-dels should feel compelled to base their choice on the popular will:

COLUMBIA, S.C. -- House Majority Leader (sic)Jim Clyburn said Friday some of his fellow Democratic Party superdelegates have been too quick to endorse presidential candidates and said he disagrees with those who base their support on election and caucus results.

"We're supposed to be unpledged delegates," Clyburn said during a discussion with reporters. "We are not supposed to be pledged."...

While Clyburn said he'd prefer superdelegates not announce their support until much later in the nominating process, he said he also doesn't agree with superdelegates shifting support from one candidate to another based on how their constituents vote in a primary or caucus.

Clyburn said superdelegates are not in place simply to mirror the popular vote. "I don't think people are really thinking through what they're saying," he said.

Not in line with what we've been hearing from many other quarters, to be sure -- and this is coming from someone who considered endorsing Obama. Full story here.

Late Update: The most super delegate, Nancy Pelosi, who will chair the Democratic convention, says that the super-dels should follow the people's will:

"It would be a problem for the party if the verdict would be something different than the public has decided."

A spokesperson for MoveOn, which is backing Obama, tells me that their petition calling on super-delegates to follow the will of the people and back the leader in pledged dels has pulled in ...

...over 257,000 signatures and counting...since yesterday.

A milestone? For the first time, Obama passes Hillary in Pollster.com's comprehensive aggregation of national polls, leading her 47.1%-46%...

Special thanks to TPM Reader MF for the catch.

Here's another new Hillary spot in Wisconsin -- unlike two other ads she released in the state today, this one doesn't hit Obama, instead emphasizing the populist tone she's been striking of late...

Since super-delegates appear to be the only topic (aside from the Illinois shooting) that anyone wants to talk about these days, here's a quick roundup of today's super-delegate news...

* A block of New York super-delegates in districts that went for Obama say they nonetheless plan to stick with Hillary.

* Super-delegate Christine Pelosi, Nancy's daughter, tells The Huffington Post that super-dels should follow the will of the voters, and recalls what happened to Al Gore in 2000 as a cautionary tale.

* Obama picks up a couple more supers -- Rep. Brian Baird of Washington state, and State Rep. Pete Jorgensen of Wyoming.

* On another delegate question, Ben Smith flags an eye-opening quote from Hillary supporter Bob Kerrey about Florida and Michigan: “You don’t change the rules in the middle of the game. Period.”

* Obama tells reporters that he hasn't heard from Rep. John Lewis and doesn't know whether Lewis is supporting him. On this score, his spokesperson is still supposed to release a statement today clarifying whether he's definitely switching to Obama at the convention. Stay tuned.

After a relatively low-profile stretch, Bill Clinton re-emerged today with a vengeance as Hillary's Surrogate-in-Chief, hitting Obama on health care by arguing at an event today in Texas that he would "deny us universal health care" for "the first time."

The Dallas Morning News has the story...

"Her opponent excites more Americans ... but would in fact deny us universal health-care coverage for the first time," the former president said. "She represents the solution business."...

"It would be truly tragic if the Democratic Party walked away from universal health care for the first time in 60 years when we finally got the business community and the medical community in line behind us," Clinton said, drawing applause.

As Mark Halperin notes, between this and her new radio ad the Clintons appear to have unveiled a new health care offensive today. It seems perhaps like a bit of an odd play for Bill to make the health care case in these particular terms, given his administration's high-profile failure to get a health care bill passed in the nineties.

Suggesting once again that Camp Hillary thinks they have a winner in Obama's refusal to debate in Wisconsin (or suggesting that this is one of the few avenues left to them), Hillary again goes up on the air in Wisconsin with an Obama-won't-debate-and-Wisconsin-residents-deserve-better ad...

The ad also hits Obama on a number of other fronts -- criticizing him for a past attack ad and repeating the claim that his health plan would leave 15 million uninsured -- making this to our knowledge the harshest criticism of Obama yet in a Hillary TV spot.

With Hillary under tremendous pressure to draw a sharp contrast with Obama in Wisconsin, where he's leading in the polls in the crucial contest, Hillary has hit the radio waves in the state with a new ad emphasizing that only she has a plan for universal health care.

"With John Edwards out of the campaign, Hillary is now the only candidate for president — Democrat or Republican — who supports universal healthcare," says Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, who represents the liberal stronghold of Madison. "With Hillary this isn't just talk. This is about solutions."

Note that the campaign seems to have re-edited their "solutions business" catch-phrase, something the campaign had been pushing earlier this week, and are now simply saying that Hillary is the candidate of "solutions," as opposed to "just talk" from Obama.

An mp3 of the ad is available here.

(Via WisPolitics)

A new Research 2000 poll in Wisconsin gives Barack Obama a small lead going into Tuesday's primary, with 47% to Hillary Clinton's 42%. If Obama wins this primary plus the Hawaii caucuses on Tuesday night, then he'll have had ten big wins in a row, giving him that much more momentum going into Texas and Ohio.

The demographics: Hillary leads 47%-42% among women, but Obama makes it up with a 53%-36% lead among men. The two are in a dead heat for the white vote, with Hillary at 45% and Obama at 44%, while Obama has an 84%-5% lead with black voters, and Hillary wins Latinos 54%-34%.

Jeff Zeleny, the writer of The New York Times's disputed story today reporting that Rep. John Lewis, a Hillary supporter, will vote for Obama at the convention, just went on CNN and stood by his reporting, offering some key clarification.

He said:

When I talked to Congressman Lewis last night, he said, "look, the voters in his district on Super Tuesday in Georgia overwhelmingly supported the candidacy of Senator Barack Obama. And he said he would quote, "never ever do anything to go against the action of them." So he says, if this comes down to be a super-delegate vote — which he hopes and believes it will not — that he will support Senator Obama. But even more than that, he says he's concerned about this campaign going into a long fight to the convention. He said it would be damaging to Senator Obama and to Senator Clinton. And he said unequivocally that he would cast his vote for Senator Obama.

So according to Zeleny, Lewis said that if this comes down to a scenario where super-delegates will be required to decide the outcome, he will definitely vote for Obama. This appears to suggest that he'll vote for Obama whether or not he wins the pledged delegate count, because he wants to honor the wishes of his own constituents. In other words, Zeleny is standing by the story.

There was no direct quote from Lewis on the vote in the Times story. And according to The Washington Post, a Lewis spokesperson earlier said the Times story was inaccurate, though she didn't specify precisely what Lewis did say. She could have meant that it was inaccurate to say that this constituted a switch in endorsements, for instance, a version that wouldn't be at odds with what Zeleny said above.

Lewis' office will be releasing a statement with further clarification today. We'll keep you posted.

A black supporter of Hillary, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, has given an interview in which he sheds light on some pretty interesting efforts by Obama supporter Jesse Jackson, Jr., to privately persuade him to rethink his support of Clinton:

In an interview, Cleaver offered a glimpse of private conversations.

He said Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. of Illinois had recently asked him "if it comes down to the last day and you're the only superdelegate? ... Do you want to go down in history as the one to prevent a black from winning the White House?

"I told him I'd think about it," Cleaver concluded.

Jackson, an Obama supporter, confirmed the conversation, and said the dilemma may pose a career risk for some black politicians. "Many of these guys have offered their support to Mrs. Clinton, but Obama has won their districts. So you wake up without the carpet under your feet. You might find some young primary challenger placing you in a difficult position" in the future, he added.

Some big news came out last night that Congressman John Lewis (D-GA), an elder statesman and hero of the civil rights movement, was switching his super-delegate vote from Hillary Clinton over to Barack Obama — a huge blow to Hillary's super-delegate strategy.

But is Lewis really switching? Two other reports say he hasn't yet made that decision.

The Washington Post reported late last night that a Lewis spokeswoman said he was misquoted — but there was a caveat or two in their report:

But the Clinton campaign reported having no word from Lewis on the subject, and a spokeswoman for Lewis, Brenda Jones, said the Times story and a similar one by the Associated Press, saying he was contemplating such a switch, were inaccurate. Both the Times and AP stories quoted Lewis directly after speaking with him; he was not available for comment later Thursday. The Obama campaign also said that Lewis and Obama had not talked recently about a change of heart.

On MSNBC's Morning Joe today, Andrea Mitchell backed up the Post's version of the story, saying that Lewis hasn't actually switched yet, but also added that it was "only a matter of time" until Lewis came out and endorsed Obama.

For our part, we've contacted Lewis' office and hope to get more information soon, so that we can sort out the conflicting reports.

The influential conservative Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) now has some reason to reconsider his decision this week to retire from the House, Roll Call reports, and it's because of some very intense lobbying by his Republican colleagues. In an extraordinary move, the paper says, over 130 House Republicans signed a letter asking him to stay on.

The most interesting aspect of this is that Shadegg represents a relatively safe Republican district, which voted 58% for President Bush in 2004. So while there isn't too much risk of the GOP losing this seat, they're obviously very concerned about the appearance of so many members dashing to the lifeboats.

A new poll of Texas shows Hillary Clinton with a lead over Barack Obama, but not a huge one in a state that has become part of her new firewall strategy along with Ohio, and where she'd need a big win in order to make the race for pledged delegates truly competitive again.

The Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll gives Hillary 49% to Obama's 41%. As in many other primary states, Hillary leads with women, Latinos and older voters, while Obama wins with men, African-Americans and younger voters. In short, neither candidate has really eaten into the other's base here, and this looks like it's going to be a close race.

Late Update: Two more polls for the Texas primary have come out today, as well. Rasmussen has Hillary up 54%-38%. American Research Group — whose track record this primary season has been less than stunning — puts Obama ahead 48%-42%.

Late Update: The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R), not Texas-based pollster IVR.

This is big news, and may well be the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton's super-delegate strategy. The New York Times reports that Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), a legend of the civil rights movement who had endorsed Hillary last year, is switching his super-delegate vote from her over to Barack Obama.

Lewis stopped short of formally switching his endorsement over to Obama, but said he would make a decision on that matter within a few days. Lewis also said that he and other lawmakers would meet soon to decide just how they should involve themselves in the nomination fight — and he cited the super-delegate battle as a pitfall that could weaken the party's hopes this Fall.

In short, it looks like the Hillary campaign probably can't count on the super-delegates to save them, should they lose out in the elected delegate race. So if it becomes clear that Obama ends up with an insurmountable lead — or Hillary, for that matter — there could be a strong message from super-delegates that the loser has to concede defeat and close up shop.

Here's a video of Mitt Romney's press conference earlier today alongside John McCain, endorsing McCain for president after the often bitter campaign the two fought through up until last week:

Obama picks up the support of the United Food and Commercial Workers Union, a significant get because it boasts a potent presence in coming battleground states like Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas.

Meanwhile, there are more suggestions that things are breaking Obama's way.

First, Ben Smith reports that he's also set to snag the endorsement of the SEIU, whose organization could give Obama a boost in Texas.

And the Associated Press reports that one of Hillary's Congressional black supporters is going to switch to Obama at the convention, and a second key supporter -- Civil Rights icon John Lewis -- has been confiding to colleagues that he's growing increasingly torn about his early support for Hillary. If he were to go public with a switch, it would be a big story.

It's official: Hillary Clinton has been declared the winner of Super Tuesday's New Mexico caucus, after a wait of more than a week while provisional ballots were being counted.

State Democratic Party chairman Brian Colón announced at a press conference today that Hillary received 73,105 votes to Obama's 71,396 votes, a margin of victory of 1,709. Given the close result, the final allocation of the state's 26 pledged delegates is likely to be somewhere around an even 13-13 split.

Late Update: The final delegate count is 14 for Hillary, 12 for Obama.

Here's some interesting context to the behind-the-scenes battle that's underway between Hillary and Obama for the support of super-delegates. It turns out that the super-delegates have received campaign contributions from both sides, though its unclear whether this money has had any impact on any decisions they've made.

The Center for Responsive Politics has a new study out which finds that the two have donated a total of more than $890,000 to those super-delegates who are elected officials in the past three years. Who's donated more? Obama has, by far.

According to the study, Obama's PAC and campaign committe have given out $694,000 to such superdelegates. Some 40% of the supers who support Obama received cash from him, the study finds.

Hillary's PAC and campaign committee, meanwhile, have donated only $195,000 to supers, less than a third of what Obama has, and only 12% of supers supporting her have received her money.

So, Obama's financial apparatus appears to have given out far more cash to the supers than Hillary's has -- though again, it's not possible to assert at all conclusively that there's a direct link between donations and the decisions by the SDs.

Late Update: I should have made it clear that these numbers refer to donations in the 2006 and 2008 cycles, so many of these could have been ordinary contributions to fellow Democrats before either was running for President. I've revised the above accordingly.

Hillary advisers are really, really upset about Chris Matthews, and it turns out that they've repeatedly made their grievances directly known to MSNBC.

Proving, once again, that the controversy over the "pimped out" comment was never really about David Shuster. It was all about Chris.

Barack Obama has a new ad running in Wisconsin, rebutting Hillary Clinton's attack ad that says he's dodging debates. "It's the same old politics of phony charges and false attacks," the announcer declares:

The Wisconsin primary is being held this Tuesday, with 74 delegates up for grabs. Recent polling has put Obama narrowly ahead. Could the lack of a debate held in Wisconsin itself be enough of an issue to change the situation?

(Via Ben Smith)

Late Update: And speaking of phoniness, the Hillary campaign's rebuttal to the ad makes a very interesting point. The Obama ad cites the AP in saying Obama's housing plan "stems foreclosures" — when in fact the AP was quoting the Obama campaign on that score.

In recent weeks, the Obama camp has repeatedly charged that Hillary was pro-NAFTA during her husband's presidency, an allegation the Obama campaign has used to try to weaken her support among a critical constituency, working-class voters. The Hillary camp has responded by saying that Obama's sourcing for the charge was flimsy at best.

Well, a new report says that the Hillary camp is right on this one. The Huffington Post talked to biographers of the First Lady and former advisers to Bill Clinton, and they all said Hillary was against the trade deal the whole time, even if she was constrained from saying so publicly.

The full piece is available here.

A new report from inside the Hillary campaign says that tensions between top advisers Mark Penn and Mandy Grunwald are at full boil:

Maggie Williams, a confidante of Mrs. Clinton from when she was first lady, has moved to assert her control following the departure last weekend of former campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle. Ms. Williams is running a daily conference on what ads to put up and expanding the inner circle with advisers from the old Clinton White House.

But the campaign has something of a shellshocked feel, as staffers privately chew over a blowup last week where internal frictions flared into the open. Clinton campaign operatives say it happened as top Clinton advisers gathered in Arlington, Va., campaign headquarters to preview a TV commercial. "Your ad doesn't work," strategist Mark Penn yelled at ad-maker Mandy Grunwald. "The execution is all wrong," he said, according to the operatives.

"Oh, it's always the ad, never the message," Ms. Grunwald fired back, say the operatives. The clash got so heated that political director Guy Cecil left the room, saying, "I'm out of here."

The frustration with Penn's messaging seems noteworthy. Even more so, perhaps, is the fact that insiders from notoriously well-disciplined Hillaryland are now leaking to the press about what's happening in private meetings.

Mitt Romney is officially joining in the Republican effort to unite behind John McCain. CNN reports that Romney will endorse McCain today at an event scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET in Boston, and will ask his delegates to vote for McCain.

When he dropped out last week, Romney said that a continued primary fight would delay the launch of a national effort against the Democrats. After a brief period of mourning for his campaign, endorsing McCain was the next logical step, and definitely a necessary one if he wants to remain in the good graces of the Republican establishment.

The other day, in an oddly overlooked post, CNN's Political Ticker reported that two sources close to Al Gore had said he'd ruled out endorsing during this Dem primary season.

I've just spoken to a source close to Gore myself, and this person confirmed that the report is correct: Gore will not endose.

Gore spokesperson Kalee Krider declined to comment to Election Central.

CNN reported this as the reason for Gore's decision:

With Sen. John Kerry and Bill Clinton both aligned to a candidate, Gore has a role to serve as the neutral elder statesman in the party.

If an agreement needs to be struck between Clinton and Obama down the road, Gore is in position to be the likely facilitator of that discussion.

My source says the report is correct. Basically, Gore appears to be preserving for himself the option of stepping in and declaring a winner in the event of a war over superdelegates, and thus being seen as a kind of mediating figure, rather than as someone trying to influence the outcome.

Today's Rasmussen tracking poll for the national Democratic race is even worse for Hillary Clinton than yesterday's was: Obama 49% (+3), Clinton 37% (-4). This is the first time ever for this poll to have shown Obama with a double-digit lead.

Rasmussen's general election match-ups show Obama to be clearly the stronger nominee against John McCain for now:

Obama (D) 46% (+0), McCain (R) 42% (+2)
McCain (R) 48 (+2)%, Clinton (D) 41% (-1)

In a sign that the spin wars over the super-delegates are starting to heat up in a big way, MoveOn has just jumped into the fight, sending out a mass email asking supporters to sign a petition urging super-delegates to back whoever wins the popular vote.

"The superdelegates are under lots of pressure right now to come out for one candidate or the other," reads the petition from MoveOn, which has endorsed Obama. "We urgently need to encourage them to let the voters decide between Clinton and Obama -- and then to support the will of the people."

MoveOn says that if they get 200,000 signatures this week, they'll publish the petition as an ad in USA Today.

Late Update: A MoveOn spokesperson says that the criterion the supers should use to determine the will of the people is whoever is ahead in pledged delegates at the end of the day.

The mystery endorsement that the Obama campaign has been touting all morning turns out to be former GOP Senator Lincoln Chafee, the Associated Press reports.

It's been known for some time now that Chafee was mulling an endorsement of Obama.

Rhode Island's primary is on March 4th. While Chafee's endorsement reinforces Obama's unity theme, it bears mentioning that the guy who unseated Chafee -- Senator Sheldon Whitehouse -- endorsed Hillary.

The new Quinnipiac poll shows that Hillary is hanging onto big leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two of the three firewall states that are now key to her hopes of stopping Obama's momentum and turning the race around.

Among likely Dem primary voters in Ohio, Hillary leads Obama 55%-34%. And in Pennsylvania she leads 52%-36%.

Tellingly, Hillary leads among women by more than 20 points in both states. Quinnipiac frames the challenge for Obama ahead this way: "With Sen. Obama closing the gap, the winner in Pennsylvania probably will depend on whether blacks, young people and college graduates in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh can turn out in sufficient strength to overcome Sen. Clinton's strong lead among blue collar voters and women."

Key point: These polls were taken from Feb. 6th-12th -- before Obama's resounding wins in the Potomac Primary. So whatever momentum he gained then is not reflected in these numbers.

Hillary Clinton has a new ad running in Texas, touting her work to secure health benefits on behalf of National Guard veterans:

Given her losses this past weekend and in the Potomac, plus expected defeats in Wisconsin and Hawaii, Hillary has made the March 4 contests in Ohio and Texas, where she currently leads in the polls, into her new firewalls. Whether she can win big enough victories to undo Barack Obama's overall lead remains to be seen.

(Via Ben Smith)

Some comments yesterday from John McCain will do nothing to stop a rumor that's been going around, that he plans to resign from the Senate in order to campaign for president full time, just as Bob Dole did in 1996.

Asked by the Arizona Republic whether this is true, McCain said that he has no plans to resign "right now," but he was clearly leaving the door open:

"Look, if I have the nomination, then we will decide whether I would remain in the Senate until after I'm elected president, if I'm elected president, or not. And the time to begin that process of thinking is after I have the nomination of the party. But right now, I have no inclination to leave the United States Senate early. So that's my position at this time. But ... if and when I win the nomination, I will then make that decision. But, right now, it is my intention to remain in the United States Senate."

If McCain were to resign, state law dictates that Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, a Democrat who supports Barack Obama, would have to appoint a fellow Republican to replace McCain.

An interesting statistic coming out of the Potomac Primary: Not only is Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton in the total popular vote for the primaries and caucuses so far, but he's ahead even if you factor in Florida, which wasn't contested, and Michigan, where his name wasn't even on the ballot.

Here are the numbers from NBC News:

States Awarding Delegates

	Total	Vote %
Obama	9,373,334	50%
Clinton	8,674,779	46%
Others	726,095	4%

With Florida

	Total	Vote %
Obama	9,942,375	49%
Clinton	9,531,987	46%
Others	984,236	4%

With Florida and Michigan

	Total	Vote %
Obama	9,942,375	47%
Clinton	9,860,138	47%
Others	1,249,922	6%

Notice that Obama's lead holds even without counting the "Uncommitted" votes in Michigan into his column — when in fact, the Uncommitted campaign was waged by supporters of his and to a lesser extent John Edwards.

Hillary Clinton could still retake the national popular lead with strong victories in Ohio and Texas, two very large states. But even then, there would be more contests on the calendar where Obama is favored to win, leaving Obama a good chance at the vote lead when all the contests are finally over.

With stats like these, one would almost think he's become the frontrunner...

On that conference call earlier, Hillary spokesman Howard Wolfson signaled what will be the Hillary camp's main argument when the spin wars over super-delegates start in earnest: Neither candidate can win this race without super-delegates.

Wolfson repeated variations of this point multiple times on the call.

Just doing the math quickly on this, NBC calculates that Obama leads Hillary in pledged delegates, 1,078 to 969. To get to the required total of 2,025, Obama would have to win virtually all the remaining 1,000 or so non-super delegates. So, yes, the winner will obviously need super-delegates.

The Obama camp will frame the coming argument, then, by saying that as a whole, the supers should follow the will of the people and back the leader in pledged delegates. The Hillary campaign will counter that super-delegates should be left to make up their own minds as to who they think can better lead the country.

But the argument is going to get messy.

Read more »

In the wake of the news that Hillary will debate on NBC later this month, an MSNBC spokesperson confirms that Shuster won't be fired and will return to the network.

My take: As dumb and crude as Shuster's remark was, in the end this mainly was all about Chris Matthews.

Hillary Clinton's previous aura of inevitability is definitely gone — even James Carville is saying her back is against the wall now.

Speaking today to the International Builders Show, a trade conference held in Florida, Carville gave this blunt assessment of Hillary's campaign: "She's behind. Make no mistake. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done."

Barack Obama is up on TV in Wisconsin, with this standard ad against plant closings that relocate jobs to other countries — a message that could potentially get some votes from the more blue-collar areas of the state, cutting into Hillary Clinton's usual base:

Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, is running her own ad attacking Obama for not debating her in Wisconsin.

On a conference call with reporters just now, Hillary pollster Mark Penn unveiled the campaign's new message: Hillary, he said, is in the "21st Century solutions business," while Obama is in the "problems business."

The new message coincides with a reworked stump speech that Hillary made this morning, in which she used strikingly similar language.

Separately, on the call Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson made it clear that he thinks the campaign has something of a winning message in the demand that Obama agree to more head-to-head debates, something the campaign desperately wants in order to blunt the impact of Obama's superior oratory on the stump.

Wolfson, in what perhaps signals recognition of the more than a dozen debates we've already had, pointed out that the two have only had a single head to head debate. "Is Senator Obama hiding from the direct comparison that voters deserve?" Wolfson asked, adding: "He will have a difficult time explaining that."

One other interesting tidbit: Penn flatly put a hard number on where the delegate count would stand after the big contests on March 4th: He said that she would be within 25 delegates of Obama.

Democrats in the red states where Barack Obama has defeated Hillary Clinton are reacting with scorn to Hillary's dismissal of the importance of those states in general elections, The Huffington Post reports.

Hillary has argued in the week since Super Tuesday that her wins in states like California and New Jersey should be seen as the greater victories in consolidating the Democratic base, and that it would take a "tsunami change in America" for some of Obama's states to ever become competitive for Democrats.

But Matt Connealy, executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party, dismissed her spin on the situation. "I don't think even Clinton should leave these predominantly red states alone," Connealy said. "I think that is a recipe that has not proven to be effective in the past."

Connealy added that a genuine 50-state strategy would benefit the party in multiple ways, in that it would "get the base motivated and force the Republicans to spend resources."

Full piece here.

The Clinton campaign has just confirmed to me that contrary to expectations, she will in fact be taking part in the NBC debate in Ohio on Feb. 26th, after all.

The question of whether she'd participate was still up in the air this morning, but the decision to participate has now been made by the campaign.

The campaign had threatened to boycott all future NBC debates after MSNBC's David Shuster made his now-notorious "pimp" comment about Chelsea.

But the Clinton campaign has been clamoring for more and more debates with Obama, and given their need for head-to-head matchups, particularly in a key state like Ohio, holding out against the coming NBC debate was less and less tenable. So now she'll be participating.

Late Update: Ben Smith gets at the key context here, noting that in the wake of the Wisconsin ad bashing Obama for not agreeing to debate, the campaign has decided that it's "getting more mileage out of the debate theme than out of the war with MSNBC."

In another sign that he might just be the official frontrunner now, Barack Obama has taken the lead in Rasmussen's daily tracking poll — the first time ever since he announced his candidacy, when he got a brief bump. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday's:

Obama 46% (+4)
Clinton 41%(-3)

And for the general election match-ups against John McCain:

Obama (D) 46% (+2), McCain (R) 40% (+0)
McCain (R) 46% (+1), Clinton (D) 42% (-2)

In the wake of last night's losses, the Hillary campaign is already going up on the air in Wisconsin, the site of the next key primary, with a new ad hitting Obama for refusing to agree to debate...

The ad would seem to cement Obama's status as the race's front-runner. Key line from the narrator: "Maybe he'd prefer to give speeches than have to answer questions."

The Hillary camp is hungry for as many debates as possible with Obama, in the belief that it plays to her advantage to have them go head-to-head over the issues, rather than letting him largely frame the race from the stump with his superior oratory. This line seems to reflect that.

On a totally separate note that could signal further travails for Hillary ahead, elite opinion is really turning against Hillary more aggressively than usual -- for instance, six of the last seven Op-ed by Maureen Dowd and Frank Rich have all bashed Hillary.

On a conference call this morning, Obama advisers sounded as confident a note as they ever have, arguing that yesterday's victories have left them with an all but insurmountable lead in delegates.

Obama adviser David Plouffe argued that yesterday's wins netted them an astonishing 50 delegates yesterday, leaving them with a lead in pledged delegates of 136.

He also said that the only way she can prevent them from winning the nomination is by winning remaining contests in "blowout form." He said Hillary needs to win Ohio and Texas "by well over 20 points" to remain in contention, adding that "we see no evidence that that's going to happen."

What about Hillary's big lead in the polls in those states? Plouffe suggested that those wouldn't hold once Obama hit the trail in both of them. "We're looking forward to a relaxed calendar, so Senator Obama can spend a lot of time in these states campaigning," Plouffe said. "Any time Senator Obama spends time with voters, we profit from that."

Here are the latest delegate counts from the major news orgs after yesterday's lopsided Obama victories -- they all put Obama ahead of Hillary in total delegates, which is to say, pledged and super:

CNN: Obama 1,215, Clinton 1,190

AP: Obama 1,223, Clinton 1,198

CBS: Obama 1,242, Clinton 1,175

ABC: Obama 1,232, Clinton 1,205

So the largest spread has Obama up by 67. Nonetheless, as Mark Halperin notes, Clinton spokesperson Howard Wolfson this morning repeated the campaign's contention that the campaign will grind on all the way to the convention, calling the contest "essentially a tie."

Besides the high-profile presidential primaries tonight, Maryland was also home to two highly-contested Congressional primaries, pitting moderate incumbents against intra-party challengers.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Al Wynn was facing a rematch against attorney and social activist Donna Edwards, who only lost to Wynn by three points in an anti-war challenge in 2006. With 39% reporting, Edwards is way ahead of Wynn at 59%-36%.

On the Republican side, Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, who has turned against the Iraq War and now votes with the Democrats, was up against two opponents: State Sen. Andy Harris, who has the backing of former Gov. Bob Ehrlich, and state Sen. E.J. Pipkin, the 2004 nominee for U.S. Senate. With 38% reporting, Gilchrest is also in trouble — Harris has 42%, Gilchrest 33%, and Pipkin 22%.

We'll keep you posted on these races as more results come in.

Late Update: With 51% reporting, the Associated Press has projected Donna Edwards the winner over Al Wynn — and apparently by a landslide. In Gilchrest's district, Harris leads 41%-35% with 74% of precincts in. No projection has yet been made, but it's not looking good for the incumbent here.

Late Late Update: Harris has been projected the winner over Gilchrest.

Barack Obama just gave his victory speech, and he used the occasion to sharpen his argument that his clear contrast with John McCain on the war leaves him well positioned to beat him in November:

When I am the nominee, I will offer a clear choice. John McCain won’t be able to say that I ever supported this war in Iraq, because I opposed it from the beginning. Senator McCain said the other day that we might be mired for a hundred years in Iraq, which is reason enough to not give him four years in the White House.

If we had chosen a different path, the right path, we could have finished the job in Afghanistan, and put more resources into the fight against bin Laden; and instead of spending hundreds of billions of dollars in Baghdad, we could have put that money into our schools and hospitals, our road and bridges – and that’s what the American people need us to do right now.

And I admired Senator McCain when he stood up and said that it offended his “conscience” to support the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy in a time of war; that he couldn’t support a tax cut where “so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate.” But somewhere along the road to the Republican nomination, the Straight Talk Express lost its wheels, because now he’s all for them.

Well I’m not. We can’t keep spending money that we don’t have in a war that we shouldn’t have fought. We can’t keep mortgaging our children’s future on a mountain of debt. We can’t keep driving a wider and wider gap between the few who are rich and the rest who struggle to keep pace. It’s time to turn the page.

Ben Smith has McCain's counter-argument, delivered in the form of his victory speech. Compare and contrast.

With Hillary's losses tonight, two more Hillaryland staffers have left the campaign: Kevin Thurman and Crystal Patterson, two key players from the Hillary campaign's Internet team. Hillary campaign internet guru Peter Daou sends me this:

"As part of the expansion of our Internet department following a tremendously successful month online, we will be adding 4 new staffers, two of whom will replace Kevin Thurman and Crystal Patterson, who moved on to new positions. Kevin and Crystal have been valued members of our team and we are grateful to them for their contribution to the campaign."

While those two staffers are out, Daou is apparently expanding the online department in the wake of their post-Super Tuesday online fundraising successes.

Sorry, Huckmentum hopefuls: NBC and Fox call Virginia for McCain.

More resignations in Hillaryland: The Washington Post reports that Mike Henry, Hillary's deputy campaign manager and a figure who was brought in by outgoing campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, has also resigned.

Exactly one minute after the polls closed, CNN, MSNBC and Fox all call Virginia for Barack Obama.

Late Update: That the race would be called so quickly is obviously a signal of just how big a landslide victory this is. But look at some of these exit poll numbers cited by MSNBC.

* Hillary barely won the white vote, 51%-48%.

* Hillary won almost none of the black vote -- 10% -- while Obama got 90% of it.

* Obama won by a large margin among white men, 55%-43%.

* Hillary did win by a big margin among white women, 58%-42%, which suggests that this firewall constituency remains reliable for her.

More soon.

Late Update: Here's another really interesting exit poll number cited by CNN: Obama had a 10-point lead, 54%-44%, on who is most qualified to be Commander in Chief -- Hillary's core campaign argument.

Late Update: One stat the Obama campaign will be trying to make a point of: Obama won the Latino vote by 10 points in Virginia, 55%-45%. But the exit polls show that the Latino vote in Virginia is all of five percent, so it's unclear how significant this is.

Late Update: Another key figure in the Hillary camp resigns.

Late Update: Two more Hillary staffers out.

Late Update: Here's a key excerpt from Obama's victory speech, in which he seizes on the occasion to train his fire on presumptive GOP nominee John McCain.

A key question for tonight: Will Obama show a capacity to cut into Hillary's core constituency groups?

Well, according to early exit polls cited by Fox News, Obama holds a massive lead in Virginia over Hillary among women, 58%-42%.

Other Virginia exits cited by Fox:

Whites: Hillary 51%, Obama 48%

Seniors (another key Hillary constituency): Obama 53%, Hillary 47%

Late-deciders: Hillary 52%, Obama 48%

Young voters: Obama 80%, Hillary 20%

Independents: Obama 66%, Hillary 33%

Expect the first Potomac Primary results to start trickling in a little after 7 P.M. We'll be blogging them right here at TPM Election Central.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Ohio shows Hillary Clinton with a strong 56%-39% lead in the Ohio primary. The March 4 primaries here and in Texas are quickly turning into Hillary's new firewall, in the face of expected losses this month.

Of course, there's no telling what happens in the next few weeks as the campaign truly hits Ohio in earnest. But Hillary definitely seems to be starting from a good position. Now she just has to maintain or even extend it.

This has the potential to give the Hillary campaign a boost in its quest to get Florida and Michigan's delegations seated:

A prominent civil rights leader has told the Democratic National Committee that refusing to seat delegates from Florida and Michigan would disenfranchise both states' minority communities.

In a Feb. 8 letter to DNC Chairman Howard Dean, NAACP chairman Julian Bond expressed "great concern at the prospect that million of voters in Michigan and Florida could ultimately have their votes completely discounted." Refusing to seat the states' delegations could remind voters of the "sordid history of racially discriminatory primaries," he said.

This suggests that the fight over this, if it happens, could prove a bruising and divisive one, something I'm not sure people have really focused on yet. Everyone's talking about super-delegates instead.

We now interrupt our regularly scheduled programming to bring you up to speed on the whereabouts of former Edwards campaign guru Joe Trippi.

When I reached him moments ago on his cell to ask him about the possibility of an Edwards endorsement, Trippi said he was out of the loop.

"I'm lying on a beach in Key West," he said.

When I asked him if he wanted us to put out word about this, Trippi joked that it might be a good idea, because it would perhaps get people to stop interrupting his beach time to ask him about Edwards' plans.

"It might stop all the calls I'm getting," Trippi said, in his customary wry way.

With Obama and Hillary tied up in a battle with one another that could last all the way to the convention, the task of softening up presumptive GOP nominee John McCain has fallen to the Democratic National Committee.

In a preview of further attacks to come, the DNC has released this web video documenting McCain's multiple flip-flops on Iraq...

It's good stuff. But once McCain secures the nomination, which could come any day now, he will obviously begin consolidating the GOP behind him and will get a big jump on the Dems as a general election candidate.

Which means that while we all wait for the Dems to select a nominee, which could take months, the DNC will have its work cut out for it as the only line of defense against the entire McCain/GOP operation.

Barack Obama has a new Spanish-language radio ad running in Texas, making a pitch to Latino voters — in particular, reaching out to younger Latino voters, with whom Obama has run stronger than Hispanics as a whole.

The ad features a young Latino talking about why he's for Obama, then adding that he's talking to all his friends and family about why they should vote for him, too.

An mp3 of the ad is available here, and the official English script is available after the jump.

Read more »

A new poll of Wisconsin by Public Policy Polling (D) gives Barack Obama a healthy lead for next week's primary. Obama has 50% support among likely Democratic primary voters, compared to Hillary Clinton's 39%.

The two are in a dead heat among core Democrats, with Obama at 46% to Hillary's 44%. However, Obama's lead is greatly extended by the support of independents and Republicans, who give him a better than 2-1 margin in this open-primary state.

This explanation from a prominent Hillary supporter in Pennsylvania, regarding why he thinks Barack Obama could lose his state, seems a bit off message.

According to a columnist for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) made the following argument in a meeting with the paper's editorial board as to why Obama could have some difficulty in his state's April 22 primary:

"You've got conservative whites here, and I think there are some whites who are probably not ready to vote for an African-American candidate."

Late Update: A reader points out that Obama himself has made similar remarks about the unacceptability of his race to some voters:

"Sure there are some people who will not vote for me because I'm black and there are some people who will vote for me because I am black," he said. "But I think most Americans are looking for a candidate who can get them affordable health care and less dependent on foreign oil."

In a sign that the spin war over the significance of super-delegates is underway in earnest, Harold Ickes told assorted Hillary supporters on a private conference call yesterday that the campaign wants them to start referring to super-delegates as "automatic delegates," according to someone on the call.

The person I spoke to paraphrases Ickes, who is spearheading Hillary's super-delegate hunt, this way: "We're no longer using the phrase super delegates. It creates a wrong impression. They're called automatic delegates. Because that's what they are."

The worry appears to be that the phrase "super-delegates" implies that "they have super-powers or super influence when they don't," the source says, describing Ickes' thinking. In other words, the phrase suggests that they have greater than average clout and that they have the power to overrule the democratic process, giving it the taint of back-room power politics.

The new term "automatic delegates" appears to be ostensibly a reference to the fact that these folks are super-delegates automatically, by virtue of their office or position.

I haven't yet seen any evidence that Hillary surrogates are following Ickes' directive, but if we start hearing the new term, we'll now know why.

The news organizations are still allocating the delegates from Super Tuesday and the weekend contests, and it's definitely a tight race. Here are the current tallies, including super-delegates unless otherwise noted:

CNN: Clinton 1,148, Obama 1,121

ABC: Clinton 1,149, Obama 1,127

NBC: Obama 958, Clinton 904 (Not counting super-delegates.)

CBS: Obama 1,139, Clinton 1,132

AP: Clinton 1,147, Obama 1,142

Bear in mind that these tallies differ for a few reasons, the major one being that each org is still working to apportion delegates at the Congressional district level. The bottom-line consensus is that Obama has a decent lead among elected delegates, while Hillary is able to narrowly edge him out thanks to her lead of roughly 90 super-delegates.

A big thing to look out for, though: If Barack Obama gets a strong winning margin for tonight's Potomac Primary, with its 168 delegates at stake, he will overtake Hillary in all delegate counts, including the super-delegates.

As you know, the question of whether Hillary's recent letter to MSNBC was implicitly calling for the firing of David Shuster has been a pretty controversial one here at TPM. So I would be remiss if I didn't flag this nugget from an interview with The Politico, in which she addressed the question herself for the first time:

JOHN HARRIS: Two-week suspension, you said that's inadequate for what was said. What would be adequate? Are you looking for a firing or something more?

SENATOR CLINTON: That's not my job, John. You know, that's the job of the people who run the network. But I think that they need to take a hard look.

This is like the third time they've had to apologize. And there are a lot of things that they haven't had to apologize for that might have merited one. So I wish they would take a look at, you know, some of the pattern of demeaning comments that are made on their networks.

Hillary Clinton is on the air in Wisconsin with this standard spot about health care, promoting her as one candidate who will fight for universal health coverage. Notably, the current version of the ad features a quote from none other than Paul Krugman, who has strongly criticized Barack Obama's approach on the issue:

Check out Hillary's ad, plus Obama's own standard ad running in Wisconsin, after the jump.

Read more »

During his interview tonight with ABC/The Politico, Barack Obama argued that despite his lack of executive experience, you can tell what kind of leader he is from the campaign that he's run so far. Furthermore, he clearly contrasted his team's steadiness and stability with the recent staff shake-ups in the Hillary camp:

"But on the broader issue of executive experience, it is true that most of my experience has been in the legislative role. That is true of all the candidates remaining in the field, except for Gov. Huckabee, who remains.

"But keep in mind – if you look for example – at how I’ve conducted this campaign – I started from scratch, and was up against an operation that had been built over the course of 20 years by a former president, with the bulk of the Democratic establishment on their side. And after setting up a hundred-million-plus dollar operation, with hundreds of employees across the country, it looks like we’ve played them to a draw so far.

"I think that gives you some sense of how we run a campaign, There hasn’t been a lot of drama in my campaign. You haven’t seen a lot of turnover in my campaign. And the culture of my campaign is one in which I think everybody feels a great sense of ownership."

During her interview tonight with ABC/The Politico, Hillary Clinton challenged Barack Obama's conciliatory tone — arguing that sometimes you have to just drop the idea of compromise and reaching out, and get certain things done:

"So when I hear Senator Obama talk about that, I wonder which fights he wouldn't fight. Would he have not fought to get to a balanced budget and a surplus and help create 22 million new jobs? Would he have not fought to get assault weapons off the street and get them out of the hands of, you know, criminals and gang members?

"You never hear the specifics. It's all this kind of abstract, general talk about how we all need to get along.

"I want to get along, and I have gotten along in the Senate. I will work with Republicans to find common cause whenever I can, but I will also stand my ground, because there are fights worth having."

As I suggested below, former Ohio Senator John Glenn will endorse Hillary, according to two Democratic sources familiar with the decision.

It's a decent get in a state that's pivotal to Hillary's hopes of turning the race's narrative around in early March. Glenn, a former astronaut, is a major figure in Ohio politics and is the first American to orbit the Earth.

Of course, it's unclear whether endorsements can change the trajectory of the race this late in the game, so we'll see how much this matters. Still, it's noteworthy.

Today's new USA Today/Gallup poll puts Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton in the national Democratic race, with 47% to Hillary's 44%. Although the result is well within the ±5% margin of error, this is nevertheless the first time he ever led in this particular survey.

For the general election match-ups against John McCain: Obama 50% to McCain 46%, and McCain 49% to Clinton 48%.

In a sign of further discontent among House Republicans, Roll Call is reporting that Congressman John Shadegg (R-AZ) will be announcing his retirement.

Shadegg ran for House Majority Leader in early 2006 and then for Minority Whip later that year, after the Republicans lost control of Congress. The abrupt departure of such a vocal and ambitious conservative, absent any compelling personal reason, won't exactly be a cause for optimism among party activists.

In a column that seems designed to mend fences with Obama backers (yes, that's sarcastic), Paul Krugman comes right out and says that "most of the venom" in this race is coming from Obama supporters, and suggests that a "cult of personality" has formed around the Illinois Senator.

That's really throwing down the gauntlet.

Krugman also says some noteworthy stuff about the "Clinton rules" of punditry. More on that right here at The Horse's Mouth.

A Democratic source tells me that Hillary is on track to landing a big endorsement in Ohio: Former Senator John Glenn, the former astronaut and first American to orbit the earth who's a legendary name in the state.

If it pans out, that's a major get in a state which is critical to her hopes of turning the narrative of the race in her favor come early March. We're trying to verify, but the Hillary campaign isn't confirming it.

More soon.

Today's SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows that John McCain might have some of the same problems in tomorrow's primary as he did in the weekend contests, when he lost Kansas and Louisiana and was awarded a close victory in Washington State, which Mike Huckabee is now disputing.

Here are the numbers, compared to the poll released on Friday:

McCain 48% (-9)
Huckabee 37% (+10)

Huckabee did well this past weekend due in part to the low turnout, caused by the McCain's virtually-certain nomination. In such a situation, only the most dedicated, hard-core conservative voters even bothered to show up.

And the poll's internals show that Huck is ahead among self-described conservatives, 45%-40%. This means that very low turnout could conceivably duplicate in Virginia the same conditions that marked those other races, thus providing the potential for a Huck upset.

For an example of how such amazingly low turnout can throw off conventional polling models, note that SurveyUSA had McCain ahead by nearly 30 points in Washington State.

On a conference call with reporters just now, Hillary pollster Mark Penn sought to make the case for her electability by dredging up bad memories of the GOP and right-wing media's successful efforts to redefine Al Gore and John Kerry, arguing that Hillary wouldn't succumb to such tactics.

The "GOP attack machine," Penn suggested, "skewed the perceptions of such distinguished public servants as Al Gore and John Kerry" in a way that left perceptions of them "out of touch with reality."

Penn said that Hillary has "withstood" this process, while Obama would find that his independent support "would evaporate relatively quickly once he faced the Republicans." Penn added that the GOP "is already playing the national security card against Obama."

In addition to a straightforward electability argument, it's worth noting that Penn's appeal is an emotional one, too -- the obvious tactic being that he's raising fears of Kerry and Gore redux. Penn's implicit goal here seems to be to make Democrats worry -- without saying so outright -- that Obama will prove too weak to fight back effectively against the GOP slime machine, just as Kerry and Gore did.

There's a clear consensus in the polling for tomorrow's Potomac Primary: Obama's got it made. Barring an upset/polling foul-up like the one we saw in New Hampshire, Obama seems set for comfortable victories in both Maryland and Virginia, and is heavily favored to win the majority-African-American District of Columbia. Here are the surveys from the last few days:

Maryland:

ARG: Obama 55%, Clinton 37% (Today)

Mason-Dixon: Obama 53%, Clinton 35% (Feb. 10)

Rasmussen: Obama 57%, Clinton 31% (Feb. 9)

SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, Clinton 33% (Feb. 8)

Virginia:

SurveyUSA: Obama 60%, Clinton 38% (Today)

ARG: Obama 56%, Clinton 38% (Today)

Mason-Dixon: Obama 53%, Clinton 37% (Feb. 10)

Rasmussen: Obama 55%, Clinton 37% (Feb. 9)

Barack Obama is going on the air in Ohio and Texas, two big states whose primaries have become Hillary Clinton's new firewall. The first ad up is the "Mother" spot, in which he talks about his late mother's difficulties with the health-care system when she was dying from cancer:

For some perspective, the primaries in these two states aren't until three weeks from now — a sign that Obama is already looked passed tomorrow's Potomac Primary and next week's contests in Hawaii and Wisconsin, and wants to lay the groundwork for some momentum after those expected victories.

An Edwards aide confirms to me that his meeting with Obama, which was schedule for today and was expected to focus on the possibility of an endorsement, has been canceled.

"The two of them have had a number of conversations in recent weeks and will continue to do so, but there is no meeting today," the aide says.

It's unclear as yet why it was canceled or whether it was rescheduled. Edwards met with Hillary on Thursday.

Barack Obama has a new radio ad running in the Potomac Primary region, stressing both his pitch for change and a focus on economic issues, where Hillary Clinton has often been able to out-finesse him according to many exit polls — and the Hillary camp has been quick to respond.

"Barack Obama understands the strains we're facing," the narrator says, later adding that Obama has, "An economic plan that jump-starts the economy, with tax cuts for middle class families and seniors. A health plan that lowers costs by $2500 for a typical family and provides universal coverage."

The Hillary camp's rebuttal: "Top independent health care experts have concluded that Sen. Obama's plan is not universal and would leave at least 15 million people without coverage. Leaving so many people out will drive up costs for everyone."

Barack Obama gave an interview to CBS News' Steve Kroft, in which he suggested that he wanted to preserve a bit of flexibility for himself on withdrawal from Iraq:

"At a time when American casualties are down, at a time when the violence is down, particularly affecting the Iraqi population, is that the right time to try and set time tables for withdrawing all American troops? I mean you talked about…the end of 2009," Kroft remarked.

"Yeah, absolutely. I think now is precisely the time. I think that it is very important for us to send a clear signal to the Iraqis that we are not gonna be here permanently. We're not gonna set up permanent bases. That they are going to have to resolve their differences and get their country functioning," Obama said.

"And you pull out according to that time table, regardless of the situation? Even if there’s serious sectarian violence?" Kroft asked.

"No, I always reserve as commander in chief, the right to assess the situation," Obama replied.

Now, it's understandable that a candidate would want to give himself flexibility to maneuver as commander in chief, but this is one matter on which proponents of a firm timetable for withdrawal decidedly don't want to see any flexibility preserved.

Congressman Tom Lantos (D-CA), the only Holocaust survivor to ever serve in Congress, has died at age 80. Lantos had announced his retirement in early January, due to a diagnosis of esophageal cancer.

Born in Hungary, Lantos spent his teen years in the anti-Nazi resistance after escaping from a labor camp, then emigrated to the United States in 1947. He was elected to Congress in a close win over a Republican incumbent in 1980, and after the 2006 Democratic victories he became the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. He was originally in favor of the Iraq War, but later turned strongly against it.

Last week I noted that this mailer that Obama dropped blaming Bill Clinton for Dem losses in the 1990s suggested that this was going to become a stock argument for Obama.

Yesterday, at a campaign rally, Obama made this case himself:

“Keep in mind, we had Bill Clinton as president when, in ’94, we lost the House, we lost the Senate, we lost governorships, we lost state houses,” he said. “And so, regardless of what policies they wanted to promote, they didn’t have a working majority to bring change about.”

The argument represents a ratcheting up of one of Obama's main arguments -- that Hillary is too encumbered by her role in the political battles of the 1990s to reach the independents and even Republicans Dems need to build a durable majority. Now Obama is making this case by directly attacking Bill's presidency for Dem losses in that decade, thus raising the specter of a similar failure under a Hillary presidency.

So with Barack Obama's sweep of the weekend contests, where does the Democratic race currently stand? Here are the current calculations from some major news outlets, of just where the delegate count stands, including super-delegates unless otherwise noted:

NBC: Obama 943, Clinton 895 (Not including super-delegates)

ABC: Clinton 1,127, Obama 1,110.

CBS: Obama 1,134, Clinton 1,131.

AP: Clinton 1,136, Obama 1,108.

CNN: Clinton 1,148, Obama 1,121.

Bear in mind that these delegate counts are snapshots of how these networks are calculating the full allocation of delegates based on election results — with some states yet to be fully apportioned — as well as differing counts of how many super-delegates each campaign has. The consensus is that Obama has a considerable lead in pledged delegates, while Hillary is able get a narrow edge after her super-delegate advantage is factored in.

One thing to look out for: If tomorrow's Potomac Primary goes especially well for Obama, he could take a full lead in all calculations, including super-delegates.

CNN and MSNBC have just called Maine for Obama, giving him another sizable victory in a state that was supposed to act as a check on his momentum after yesterday's trio of landslide wins. Instead, tonight's outcome gave him another burst of forward motion in a month that's shaping up as a very dark one indeed for Hillary.

With 70% reporting, Obama had 58% to Hillary's 41%. The surprisingly big victory for Obama came on the same day as the Hillary campaign signaled a recognition of its travails by announcing a shuffling of their inner circle, replacing campaign manager and longtime loyalist Patti Solis Doyle with longtime Hillary confidant Maggie Williams.

Obama's victory effectively left Hillary advisers grappling with the possibility that the worst case scenario that they'd been anticipating for some time could come true: The prospect of no victories for the rest of February. This coming Tuesday, Obama could very well sweep the Potomac Primary -- Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C.

Obama's prospects are also pretty good in Wisconsin a week later, because he can run especially well in two major Dem strongholds, the left-wing college town of Madison and the urban center of Milwaukee, as well as in other locales.

That leaves the Hillary campaign potentially staring across a bleak February landscape all the way to March 4th for a real shot at turning the narrative of the race around -- a grim set of circumstances that Hillary advisers have been anticipating for some time.

Time and again in this race, though, Hillary has had her back to the wall, only to find that the female vote, perhaps driven by the sight of Hillary on the verge of defeat, has rallied around her and changed the story-line of the race. Women helped drive her surprise victory in New Hampshire, and were an instrumental part of her winning coalition of female, Latino, working class and older voters that propelled her to key victories in big states on Feb. 5th.

The question now is how strong Hillary's coalition will prove in March, in the face of whatever momentum Obama builds coming out of what are expected to be repeated victories throughout the rest of the month. Of course, it's perfectly possible that whatever momentum he has, the proportional system will ensure that this race grinds on all the way until the convention. Advisers from both campaigns have predicted this outcome. And super-delegates are another wild card.

Which is to say, as big as Obama's victory was tonight and yesterday, and while he's in a strong position, it's still anyone's guess how this comes out.

Woah. With 44% reporting, Obama has jumped to a big lead.

57%-42%.

Remember, this was the state that was supposed to slow Obama's momentum after the trio of victories yesterday. Not happening yet.

Late Update: This spread is still the same, but with 59% now reporting. Should be calling it soon.

It's Obama 51%, Hillary 48%.

We'll bring you the results here as more returns come in...

I've just obtained an internal Hillary email from campaign manager Patty Solis Doyle to Hillary's staff announcing that in a reshuffling of the campaign's inner circle, she's leaving the post of campaign manager, and is being replaced by longtime trusted aide Maggie Williams:

Over a year ago Hillary launched her campaign for President.

Her announcement began a historic effort that has inspired millions and brought hundreds of thousands to their feet all across this nation.

I have been proud to manage this campaign, and prouder still to call Hillary my friend for more than sixteen years. I know that she will make a great President.

This has already been the longest Presidential campaign in the history of our nation, and one that has required enormous sacrifices from all of us and our families.

During the last month I have been working closely with my longtime friend, Maggie Williams.

This week Maggie will begin to assume the duties of campaign manager. I will serve as a senior adviser to Hillary and the campaign and travel with Hillary from time to time on the road. Maggie is a remarkable person and I am confident that she will do a fabulous job.

Although I will continue to see you all at headquarters, I would be remiss if I didn’t thank each of you for your dedication, excellence, and passion over the last year.

You are the best campaign staff in the history of Presidential politics and I am grateful to each of you for your hard work and friendship.

The replacement of Doyle was first rumored after Hillary's loss in Iowa, but the chatter of her impending departure vanished with her subsequent victories. Now Dolye, who's been with Hillary for many years, is out at a moment where the campaign faces a dark February, during which she may not win a single contest.

An Edwards aide confirms to me that John Edwards met privately with Hillary on Thursday to discuss the possibility of making an endorsement, and will meet with Obama tomorrow, as first reported by Mark Halperin.

The Edwards aide gave me a bunch more detail, including this: "There's a greater than 50% chance he will endorse." He also said that he's been talking to both on and off for some time, including since he dropped out.

The Edwards aide, who played a key campaign role, confirms that in his private discussion with Hillary, the former North Carolina Senator talked to her about similar concerns he raised with both candidates just before leaving the race. The aide says he talked about "who's going to carry on the mantle of fighting for the voiceless," and is trying to gauge which of the two "will sign their name in blood in order to make that commitment." A second source familiar with the meeting confirmed that it took place.

The Edwards aide cautioned against reading too much into the meetings, saying that he'd been talking to both of them before. "He's torn," the aide said "He has reservations about Hillary, which are pretty apparent."

On Obama, the aide says, Edwards worries "whether he's tough enough to be President of the United States. If you look at what Edwards ran on, which is not negotiating with the special interests, taking away their power, that's pretty different than the Obama model."

The Edwards aide added that Obama's lack of a health care plan with a "mandate" is a "tough hurdle for him to get over." He added, however, that Edwards is much more in line with Obama on other issues.

The New York Times has a useful overview of the extent to which the two campaigns are wooing the undecided super-delegates who may end up deciding who wins this thing in the end.

The piece delves a bit into the ways both have enlisted their highest-profile supporters to work behind the scenes to win over the these much-prized potential tie-breakers:

The Clinton campaign has established a system, overseen by one of the party’s most seasoned behind-the-scenes operators, Harold Ickes, to have superdelegates contacted by carefully chosen friends and local supporters, as well as by big-name figures like Madeleine K. Albright, a former secretary of state. For particularly tough sells, the campaign has former President Bill Clinton or Chelsea Clinton make the call.

Mr. Obama has enlisted Tom Daschle, the popular former Senate majority leader, as well as Gov. Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the party’s 2004 presidential nominee.

“You know there is something interesting going on when you pick up your cellphone and see all those out-of-state phone numbers,” said Representative Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona, who reported getting calls from Ms. Napolitano and Mr. Daschle.

The Times also crunched some numbers and found that of the 796 super-delegates, 204 are for Hillary and 99 for Obama. Other calculations favor Obama more, but if The Times is right, our handy Election Central calculator tells us that this means that there are a startling 493 super-delegates that are undecided -- yet another indication of just how up in the air this contest is.

Late Update: The Obama campaign is disputing The Times's account, sending over this:

The NY Times is wrong. There are 182 superdelegates supporting us -- as NBC reports. The AP reports that the number is 156.