The Obama camp has a "memo" out already on tonight's victories, claiming that tonight's wins have given them the edge in delegates, which of course is the metric that really counts.

The memo argues that tonight Obama won 103 delegates to Hillary's 58, putting the current total at 1,012 for Obama and 940 for Hillary.

Full memo after the jump.

Late Update: It should be noted that the question now is whether the lead Obama is amassing in delegates -- and fundraising -- could potentially allow him to win over superdelegates and to build up unstoppable momentum going into the March contests. Obama wants the campaign to be about those metrics, while Hillary will try to keep framing it as a national contest.

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NBC calls Lousiana for Obama, giving him a sweep of all three states tonight -- Lousiana, Nebraska and Washington State.

With 31% reporting, Obama leads Hillary 51%-39%.

Separately, Obama spokesman Bill Burton sends over this response to the news that Hillary has raised $10 million since Super Tuesday:

“

We'’ve raised well more than the Clinton campaign this month but more importantly is how we have raised it, from hundreds of thousands of donors who are also forming the backbone of a potent grassroots movement for change.

More than 350,000 donors have contributed to our campaign just this year.

Late Update: The Obama campaign has a memo out detailing the lead in delegates that has resulted from tonight's wins.

Late Late Update: Here are CNN's current official delegate counts: They find Obama with an edge in pledged delegates, but Hillary leading with super-delegates factored in.

On the night that Obama is rolling up big victories in Nebraska, Washington State, and possibly Lousiana, Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer emails out this:

Breaking...we have now raised $10 million from 100,000 donors since Super Tuesday.

A couple days ago, the Obama camp stopped releasing their daily totals, so no more daily comparisons...

Late Update: Obama spokesman Bill Burton emails over this response:

We'’ve raised well more than the Clinton campaign this month but more importantly is how we have raised it, from hundreds of thousands of donors who are also forming the backbone of a potent grassroots movement for change.

More than 350,000 donors have contributed to our campaign just this year.

CNN and Fox call it for Obama: With 42% of the vote in, it's 67%-32%.

CNN and NBC call Nebraska for Obama.

With 73% reporting, it's 69-31.

If Hillary was counting on a win in Ohio to change the story-line after expected losses in multiple states this month, this isn't good news: The state's biggest paper, the Cleveland Plain Dealer has just endorsed Obama:

Obama's frequent talk of hope strikes some people as naive. It leads others to question his toughness. But Obama understands something his critics do not: Change requires vision and optimism, shared sacrifice and mutual trust. Hope can sustain those elements; a presidency defined by political tactics cannot.

Hillary Clinton is an exceptionally bright and accomplished woman. Only a fool could dispute that. It would be nice if Obama's policy proposals were as meaty as those she has put forward. It's no wonder she wants Democrats to see this race as a choice between resumes.

But in a campaign where history matters, she carries an inordinate amount of baggage. Who wants to relive the soap operas of the 1990s?

Buying Obama's argument, and then some. Full editorial here.

Seeking to frame tonight's results in advance, Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer sends out this statement:

The Obama campaign has dramatically outspent our campaign in these three states, saturating the airwaves with 30 and 60 second ads. The Obama campaign has spent $300,000 more in Louisiana on television ads, $190,000 more in Nebraska and $175,000 more in Washington.

Although the next several states that hold nominating contests this month are more favorable to the Obama campaign, we will continue to compete in them and hope to secure as many delegates as we can before the race turns to Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

Hillary advisers are gritting their teeth for a bloodbath tonight -- and indeed, are bracing for the possibility of winning no contests this month. They've spent days and days trying to lower expectations for what will happen, so it'll be interesting to see how the media plays tonight's results.

This has been elsewhere today already, but here's a quick update on Shuster-gate: Today Hillary turned up the heat on MSNBC over the Chelsea "pimp" comment, sending a letter to NBC News president Steve Capus in which she made it clear that his suspension just won't suffice...

Dear Mr. Capus,

Thank you for your call yesterday. I wanted to send you this note to convey the depth of my feeling about David Shuster’s comments.

I know that I am a public figure and that my daughter is playing a public role in my campaign. I am accustomed to criticism, certainly from MSNBC. I know that it goes with the territory.

However, I became Chelsea’s mother long before I ran for any office and I will always be a mom first and a public official second.

Nothing justifies the kind of debasing language that David Shuster used and no temporary suspension or half-hearted apology is sufficient.

I would urge you to look at the pattern of behavior on your network that seems to repeatedly lead to this sort of degrading language.

There’s a lot at stake for our country in this election. Surely, you can do your jobs as journalists and commentators and still keep the discourse civil and appropriate.

Sincerely,

Hillary Rodham Clinton

Hard to miss the line, "no temporary suspension or half-hearted apology is sufficient." She wants him fired.

In what will likely be taken as a sign of Republican Party disunity, presumptive nominee John McCain has lost this afternoon's Kansas caucuses to Mike Huckabee — and it wasn't even close. With 88% reporting, Huck has 60% to McCain's 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 11%. Huckabee will almost certainly win all 36 of the delegates up for grabs.

In some ways, this state was tailor-made for Huckabee. A top issue for the Kansas GOP is to challenge the teaching of evolution, and McCain's virtually-certain nomination guaranteed a low turnout. But it can't be good for McCain's image if he continues to lose more contests to Huckabee. As such, expect McCain to increase his travel schedule to upcoming primaries and caucuses, in order to make sure this doesn't happen again.

Note to readers: We'll be blogging the results of today's contests right here at TPM Election Central, beginning later today.

On the Dem side: Louisiana (56 delegates), Washington State (78 delegates), Louisiana (56 delegates), Virgin Islands (3 delegates).

On the GOP side: Kansas (36 delegates), Washington State (18 delegates), Louisiana (20 delegates).

Join us.

There's lots to chew on in the new Newsweek poll:

* Obama and Hillary are locked in a national statistical dead heat among national Dem voters, 42%-41%, with a sizeable 17% undecided, but she has a slight edge among registered Dems, 45%-40%. (It's unclear whether the poll surveyed likely Dem voters.)

* Mirroring other surveys, Obama is winning among blacks, college grads and men, while Hillary enjoys more support among whites, women, older voters and those with a high-school education or less.

* Both candidates' messages seem to have taken hold with the electorate: Obama is seen as the more inspiring candidate by a large majority, while she is seen by many more voters as the candidate with the right experience. Obama has only a slight edge as to which is seen as most likely to make change happen, suggesting that Hillary's efforts to blunt his change message by arguing that you need experience to make change could have born some fruit.

* Despite the acrimony around the contest that has taken hold on blogs and elsewhere, this poll suggests, as do other surveys, that the Dem electorate isn't in the same place. While large majorities feel strongly about their pick, a huge majority of 84% of Dem voters also says it would be happy with either as the nominee.

* On the GOP side, McCain leads Huckabee by a large margin, and, in an interesting finding, more than two thirds of conservatives say they would be happy with him as the nominee, suggesting that all the talk of a conservative rebellion against him may be overblown.

More here.

The new SurveyUSA poll of Maryland gives Barack Obama a big lead for this Tuesday's primary, with 52% support to Hillary Clinton's 33%. The demographics: Whites are a dead heat with Hillary at 42% to Obama's 40%, and Obama leads among African-Americans at 71%-18%. Another thing Helping Obama: Hispanics make up only 3% of the expected electorate.

In conjunction with today's SurveyUSA poll of Virginia, which had Obama up 20 points, he definitely looks like he's in good shape for this Tuesday's Potomac Primary, when a total of 168 delegates will on the line between these two states and the District of Columbia.

MSNBC's David Shuster, who's been suspended by MSNBC for his "pimped out" remark about Chelsea, went on the network tonight to offer a second, even-more-contrite apology than the one he ventured this morning...

So where are we on this story? Here's the situation, as best as we can determine.

Right now, the outstanding question is this: Will Hillary Clinton agree to appear at an upcoming debate on NBC later in February? Earlier today her spokesperson, Howard Wolfson, said her campaign couldn't "envision" participating in any debates on the network for the near future. Later today, an MSNBC spokesperson confirmed that talks are ongoing between the network and the Clinton campaign over whether she'll appear. So the question of whether she'll appear is clearly up in the air.

Shuster has been "temporarily" suspended from the network, according to an MSNBC spokesperson, who added that the duration of his suspension had not yet been determined. An MSNBC production source says that it was only after the Hillary campaign threatened to boycott future debates that Shuster was informed of his suspension.

Will Shuster's suspension be enough to get Hillary to recommit to the debate? Her campaign is refusing to answer questions about whether she'll appear, or what they're asking for in the talks. This suggests that they want to leave the network twisting in the wind on the debate question, perhaps to "work the refs," send a signal to MSNBC and other news outlets about what they will and won't tolerate.

When Camp Hillary signals what they intend to do, we'll let you know. For now the whole situation is in limbo.

Super Tuesday is hardly over, but the Democratic campaigns are already geared up for some big races this weekend, with a total of 182 delegates up for grabs. Barack Obama is currently favored in three out of four of the contests, with only one possibly leaning to Hillary Clinton.

Our handy rundown is available after the jump.

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Former Sen. John Breaux (D-LA) stars in a new radio spot for Hillary Clinton in the state he represented, promoting her record on securing health care for children and National Guardsmen. "So when Hillary Clinton says she'll get health care for every American, I know she'll do it," Breaux says. "And boy, do we need it."

There is one wrinkle with Breaux's presence in the ad, and his talk about health care: Breaux became a lobbyist since leaving the Senate three years ago, first with Patton-Boggs and now his new firm with Trent Lott. Among Breaux's clients, according to media reports as recent as December 2007, is none other than Wal-Mart.

Besides the intended effect of motivating voters who remember Breaux favorably, the presence of a lobbyist for Wal-Mart in a Hillary spot is a potentially sensitive situation, since Wal-Mart is seen as a symbol of corporate greed and unfair labor practices by many Democratic activists.

The Hillary camp has pointed out that Hillary has shown sustained and aggressive support for organized labor in general and for the rights of Wal-Mart workers to organize in particular. They also argue she tried to change Wal-Mart's policies when she served on the board of directors.

Here's the statement sent over to us by MSNBC spokesperson Jeremy Gaines, responding to the Hillary campaign's sharp criticism of David Shuster's on-air Chelsea "pimp" remark:

On Thursday's "Tucker" on MSNBC, David Shuster, who was serving as guest-host of the program, made a comment about Chelsea Clinton and the Clinton campaign that was irresponsible and inappropriate. Shuster, who apologized this morning on MSNBC and will again this evening, has been suspended from appearing on all NBC News broadcasts, other than to make his apology. He has also extended an apology to the Clinton family. NBC News takes these matters seriously, and offers our sincere regrets to the Clintons for the remarks.

No word on the length of the suspension. Separately, Ben Smith had a nice catch: He noted that the upcoming Ohio debate would be held on NBC, and asked whether the Hillary camp would really be taking a pass. The rest of MSNBC's statement suggests that this is still up in the air:

Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns accepted invitations from us on Thursday evening to participate in a February 26th debate. Our conversations with the Clinton campaign about their participation continue today, and we are hopeful that the event will take place as planned.

One suspects, however, that given the Hillary camp's desire for more debates and more face-to-face time with Obama, the suspension will be enough and Hillary will attend.

Late Update: We have more on MSNBC's coverage of the race over at The Horse's Mouth.

Late Late Update: MSNBC spokesperson Jeremy Gaines tells me that Shuster's suspension is "temporary," adding that the length of it hasn't been determined.

Barack Obama has picked up the support of a major former backer of John Edwards: Rep. Dave Obey, a major fixture in Wisconsin, where the primary will be held on Feb. 19, with 74 delegates at stake.

The new SurveyUSA poll of Virginia gives Barack Obama a huge lead in this Potomac Primary state, with 59% to Hillary Clinton's 39%. There are 83 delegates at stake in Virginia, plus 70 in Maryland and 15 in the District of Columbia this Tuesday — and at least from this vantage point, Obama seems well-positioned for all three contests.

The demographic breakdown: The two are tied among white voters at 49%-49%, Obama leads among African-Americans 87%-12%, Hillary has Hispanics 60%-39%, and the two are in a dead heat in the "Other" category. This would seem to follow the national trends, albeit with a possible slight up-tick for Obama with both whites and Latinos.

Now that the Dems are all but certain that they'll be facing John McCain in the general, the Dem candidates are under heavy pressure to build a more convincing case that he or she is best positioned to beat him.

The Obama camp has a new "memo" out to reporters just now arguing that his appeal to independents far outpaces hers and that she would unite Republicans and conservatives fractured by McCain's expected victory. But in a twist, the memo seeks to bolster the point by quoting Republicans saying it.

"Against Senator Obama it’s a much more difficult task. It would be a generational campaign, the new versus the older," the memo quotes chief Bush strategist Matthew Dowd as saying. "Somebody that had a distinct stand on Iraq versus his stand on Iraq. I think Senator Obama is a much more difficult race and there is not any vitriol from the conservative and the Republican base against Senator Obama. They don’t sort of dislike him to there core like they do Hillary Clinton."

Full memo after the jump.

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This is really something. The Hillary campaign has just gone to war with MSNBC, dispatching a top Hillary adviser to launch a lacerating attack on the network on a conference call with reporters moments ago.

On the call, top Hillary adviser Howard Wolfson suggested that there's a "pattern" of reprehensible comments by MSNBC personalities, and said outright that the Hillary campaign could no longer "envision a scenario where we would debate on that network given the comments that were made and have been made."

Wolfson made the comments in response to a question about a now-notorious comment by MSNBC's David Shustser, in which he asked if Chelsea's campaigning on her mom's behalf meant she was being "pimped" by the Hillary campaign...

Though Shuster apologized this morning, the Hillary campaign has clearly decided to seize upon the opportunity to launch a major attack on the network. A few weeks ago Chris Matthews publicly apologized to Hillary after suggesting that her whole Senate career and presidential candidacy was made possible only because of Bill's shenanigans in the White House.

Asked about Shuster's "pimp" comment, Wolfson denounced the comment as "disgusting" and "beneath contempt," adding: "It's the kind of thing that should never be said on a national news network."

Then Wolsfon added: "You have to question whether or not there is a pattern here on the part of the network." He added: "Is this part of a pattern? I don't know, but [it's] beneath contempt."

Then, unbidden, he concluded: "I'll say this. We've done a number of debates on that network...I at this point can't envision a scenario where we would debate on that network given the comments that were made and have been made."

That he would effectively rule out future debate appearances for the time being strongly suggests that the Hillary campaign discussed this in some detail beforehand and decided to launch this broadside against the network. It also suggests that the Hillary camp sees the potential for political gain in drawing media attention to negative and sexist comments made on MSNBC about her and her daughter.

More soon.

Late Update: We have lots more coverage of MSNBC and other news orgs' treatment of the race right here at The Horse's Mouth, our blog about political coverage.

Howard Wolfson, on a conference call with reporters just now:

"We have now raised over $8 million on line since the polls closed in California."

In another indication that the Hillary campaign is still trying to wrest the fundraising story away from Obama, who caught Camp Hillary off guard with his massive cash pull right after Super Tuesday, Wolfson added: "We have considerably closed the gap; this is a very important development going forward."

The Obama campaign has stopped releasing daily updates on fundraising numbers. But given that yesterday he stood at roughly $7.5 million in online money since Tuesday, it seems safe to assume he still is outpacing her in post-Super Tuesday funds.

Late Update: Obama spokesperson Bill Burton sends over this statement in response to the news:

With their personal fortune that they are dipping into and their clear fundraising strength, this all just goes to show how Obama is the true underdog in this race.

In another sign that John McCain still has a lot of work ahead if he is to fully repair his breach with hardcore conservatives, James Dobson officially endorsed Mike Huckabee in a statement released this morning, reiterating his opposition to McCain's candidacy. Dobson wrote that until yesterday there were "two pro-family candidates whom I could support, but I was reluctant to choose between them. However, the decision by Gov. Mitt Romney to put his campaign 'on hold' changes the political landscape."

Here's a question worth pondering: If Dobson had endorsed Huckabee or Romney earlier, would that have altered the outcomes of any of the crucial January or Super Tuesday races, such as South Carolina or Florida? To borrow the words of William F. Buckley, as it stands now Dobson is just standing athwart inevitability and yelling, "Stop!"

The full statement is available after the jump.

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With the money race shifting (somewhat) back in Hillary's direction, she goes up on the air in the Potomac Primary states, Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., all of which are holding their votes Tuesday.

The ads, which have run before in other states, are both bread-and-butter economy spots portraying her as a steady hand on the tiller during a time of economic crisis. And there's of course the obligatory reference to her "35 years of experience." View them after the jump.

Late Update: Just to clarify, Obama is still significantly ahead financially, but in the last few days Hillary has managed to regain some fundraising momentum that it appeared she'd lost.

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In an interview with a local news station in Maine, Bill Clinton admitted that he'd erred by over-zealously defending Hillary in the run-up to the South Carolina primary. Asked by a reporter if he regretted his perceived attacks on Obama, he replied...

Bill said:

"The mistake that I made is to think that I was a spouse like any other spouse who could defend his candidate...I think I can promote Hillary but not defend her, because I was president."

He also steadfastly denied having attacked Obama directly:

"A lot of things that were said were factually inaccurate. I did not ever criticize Senator Obama personally in South Carolina, I never criticized him personally...I think whenever I defend her, I (a) risk being misquoted and (b) risk being the story. I don't want to be the story."

It's a bit surprising that he -- or her advisers -- didn't think through this dynamic in advance, but there you have it.

Barack Obama has a new ad in Louisiana, seemingly picking up where John Edwards left off in highlighting the restoration of New Orleans as an issue:

There are 56 delegates at stake in tomorrow's Louisiana primary.

A newly released poll from Time magazine, conducted before Super Tuesday, shows Barack Obama to be the more electable Democrat against John McCain:

Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%

According to the pollster's analysis, "independents tilt toward McCain when he is matched up against Clinton But they tilt toward Obama when he is matched up against the Illinois Senator."

Hillary remained the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, taking 48% nationally against Obama's 42% — but again, this poll was conducted before Super Tuesday, meaning those particular numbers are probably obsolete.

Hillary Clinton is running this ad in Washington state championing the issue of universal health care, and prominently mentioning the support of U.S. Senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell:

Tomorrow's caucuses are the single biggest contest of the weekend, with 78 delegates up for grabs. A SurveyUSA poll released Monday put Barack Obama ahead 53%-40%.

In a sign that John McCain's essentially certain nomination still isn't going over well with some hardcore activists, James Dobson will be endorsing Mike Huckabee tomorrow — the first time ever that Dobson is making an endorsement during the Republican primary campaign.

Dobson is not a fan of McCain, to put it mildly. On Super Tuesday, while voting was going on, he released a statement that he would refuse to cast a ballot for president in the general election if McCain were nominated. Considering that McCain's nomination is now mathematically a foregone conclusion, it'll be interesting to see what Dobson does this Fall, and whether he successfully discourages his followers from going to the polls.

The Obama campaign turns down Hillary's invitation to join her at a Maine town hall meeting this weekend, issuing this statement:

“Senator Clinton and Senator Obama have debated 18 times already, and they will debate again. But that schedule will not be dictated by the Clinton campaign. There are a lot of people looking forward to seeing Senator Obama in Bangor on Saturday, and we’ll be keeping that commitment.”

Which gives the Hillary campaign the sort of headline they want in the local Maine press. As Ben Smith notes, the Hillary campaign is pressing this local-press-friendly strategy in multiple states.

Hillary Clinton has a new ad running in Nebraska, where 24 delegates are stake in this Saturday's caucuses. The spot features a one-time giant of state politics, former Senator Bob Kerrey:

Barack Obama has done exceptionally well in Mountain and Prairie West caucuses, and the campaign is probably hoping for a big win here as well. The question for Hillary is whether Kerrey's endorsement can help trump Senator Ben Nelson and Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, the two current leaders of the state party who are both actively supporting Obama.

On a conference call with members of Hillary's finance team, top Hillary adviser Terry McAuliffe just declared that Camp Hillary has raised $6.4 million in the last 30 hours or so. It raised $7.5 million since Feb. 1.

"It surprised even me, the ultimate optimist," McAuliffe said. He also confirmed that the Hillary campaign is going up on the air in Washington state, Maine and Nebraska.

It's striking how aggressively the Hillary camp has moved to try to take control of the money story today, as if they were caught off guard by the news yesterday of of Obama's surprisingly massive post-Super Tuesday haul. Obama remains ahead, however, with over $7.6 million, though the gap has narrowed considerably.

In an unusual move, Hillary is inviting Barack Obama to appear with her side by side at a town hall meeting in Maine this weekend, when both are scheduled to be campaigning in the state.

In a statement sent to local reporters in Maine that someone forwarded our way, Hillary said: “With both of us in the state – I would like to invite him to join me for a joint town hall Saturday morning in Orono, ME, so that the people of Maine have a clear idea of the differences between us."

"It’s time for the people of this country and the caucus goers of Maine to pick a President," Hillary continues. "I hope Senator Obama will accept my invitation to help them do just that.”

If Obama were to accept, it would obviously create a big media event.

The move comes as the Hillary campaign is pressing Obama to spend more time in face-to-face debates with her. Such moves reflect the Hillary campaign's belief that she does well in forums where she's allowed to debate the issues head-to-head with Obama, as opposed to letting him largely frame the race from the stump with his superior oratorical skills.

If Obama doesn't accept, she could argue that he's reluctant to discuss the issues before Maine voters; of course, he could also seek to dismiss Hillary's invite as a stunt. We'll keep you posted.

Late Update: Obama turns down her invite.

MoveOn gives us advance word on how much they've raised for Obama since midday yesterday: $357,000, with contributions still coming in.

"The Obam-a-mentum fundraiser has been our biggest fundraiser yet this year," MoveOn executive director Eli Pariser will say in a statement soon to go out to reporters. "Our members have not finished giving and none of the contributions through our site have been added yet to the Obama campaign fundraising totals. We are thrilled we'll be able to add to Senator Obama's big day."

It's kind of a sign of the times that hundreds of thousands in a single day probably won't surprise a lot of people, given the current astronomical sums we're seeing. But it is significant that MoveOn will keep chugging as a financial engine for Obama. And keep in mind that the MoveOn money is in addition to, not part of, the more than $7 million that the Obama camp raised since Super Tuesday.

Separately on the fundraising front, this is kind of amusing: Emily's List is now using, of all things, Chris Matthews' on-air buffoonery as a fundraising tool for Hillary. The Tweety Effect lives!

In a rare development for this cycle, a House Democrat from a swing seat is retiring. Six-term Congresswoman Darlene Hooley (OR), aged 68, announced today that she is not running again because of a desire to move on after 32 years of public service.

The district might be a tough fight for the Dems to hold — President Bush carried it by one point in 2004, and her self-financing opponent from 2006 has been eyeing another run. However, Hooley said that the prospects of Dems picking up seats this November actually made her decision easier: "I think it will be easier to elect a Democrat this year, and I don't know about two years."

Here are some highlights from Mitt Romney's speech today at CPAC, in which he quit the presidential race after a very bad Super Tuesday result:

• "As of today, more than 4 million people have given me their vote for President, less than Senator McCain's 4.7 million, but quite a statement nonetheless. Eleven states have given me their nod, compared to his 13. Of course, because size does matter, he's doing quite a bit better with his number of delegates."

• "I have been struck by the enormous differences in the wealth and well-being of people of different nations. I have read a number of scholarly explanations for the disparities. I found the most convincing was that written by David Landes, a professor emeritus from Harvard University. I presume he's a liberal – I guess that's redundant."

• "If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror."

The full prepared text is available after the jump.

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Romney is speaking before CPAC right now, explaining why he's suspending his campaign, and according to advance excerpts given to the Associated Press, Romney will say:

"If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror."

Guess Mitt's determined to exit this thing with his now-cosmic levels of ignominy completely undiminished....

CNN is reporting that three sources tell the network that Romney is hanging up his Mittens. He's suspending his campaign.

CNN also reports that Mitt had tentatively decided to quit last night but made the final decision this morning. Romney is about to address the CPAC conference, where he'll make it official.

Just think, all that money and technology spent on building the perfect GOP Robo-candidate -- all for naught.

A spokesperson for MoveOn, which is backing Obama, just confirmed to me that none of the more than $7 million that the Obama campaign has raised since Super Tuesday came from the group's fundraising efforts.

"The numbers announced by the Obama campaign don't include any fundraising MoveOn has done on their behalf," MoveOn communications director Ilyse Hogue says.

This appears to put a crimp in the Hillary campaign's argument -- in terms of this $7 million, at least -- that their lag in fundraising is partly due to the fact that they're not just up against the Obama camp, but MoveOn as well.

MoveOn is in fact in the midst of a fundraising drive for Obama, and the group tells me that they'll be releasing the totals raised for him this afternoon -- which means still more money flowing Obama's way today. So in the broader sense, Camp Hillary is right -- they are up against Obama and MoveOn, but given that these numbers are broken out separately, it's hard to see how this can be used to explain away her lower numbers.

We'll keep you posted on those MoveOn totals when we get them.

Today's a big day for John McCain — he's giving his speech to the CPAC conference, where he will do his best to assuage the doubts of the many conservative activists in attendance. During the speech, expect him to stress how he got involved in politics as a "foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution," and to attack the right-wing bona-fides of a certain former Massachusetts governor who used to not be so conservative.

In that spirit, here's McCain's new ad running in the Potomac Primary area, attacking Mitt Romney for his past political life as an anti-Reagan liberal:

"If we can't trust trust Mitt Romney on Ronald Reagan," the announcer asks, "how can we trust him to lead America?"

McCain is also running some of his other standard ads, such as the "True Conservative" spot, which name-drops Reagan profusely.

The Obama campaign isn't the only one that had a fundraising coup in the aftermath of Tuesday's results -- the Hillary campaign has raised roughly $4 million since the polls closed, the Clinton campaign tells us.

The Hillary camp is also claiming 35,000 new donors in the past 48 hours.

In a sign of how it hopes to frame Obama's fundraising advantage going forward, the Hillary campaign is pointing to the fact that it's keeping pace not just with Obama, but also with the formidable fundraising clout of Obama backers MoveOn and John Kerry.

As of right now, the Obama campaign has raised over $7 million.

Hillary campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle has sent an open letter to the Obama camp, stepping up their debate challenge. The letter argues that voters should get to see more than a single one-on-one debate between the two, and that the two of them should have one debate a week for the next five weeks starting this weekend.

One particular proposed venue would definitely be a sticking point with a lot of Democratic activists: "Senator Clinton believes voters should have more than one opportunity to see the candidates discuss the issues and has accepted five debates between now and March 4th from CNN, MSNBC, WJLA, ABC and Fox News."

The full text of the letter is available after the jump.

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For anybody worried about the super-delegates overruling the wishes of the democratically elected pledged delegates, Barack Obama's latest Congressional endorsement should be taken as an encouraging sign. Congressman Tim Walz (MN) announced that he's backing Obama now, even though he really likes both candidates. And here's why:

"Last night at the Democratic caucuses, the voters of southern Minnesota overwhelmingly supported Senator Barack Obama and his hopeful vision for positive change. As a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention, I will honor their decision and support Senator Obama."

If Walz is following the decision of the people in his district, could the super-delegates as a whole actually refuse to honor the decision of the country?

This is nutso. The Obama campaign's response to the news that Hillary lent her campaign $5 million last month is to highlight the fact that they raised nearly that sum in the brief period that's passed ... since the polls closed yesterday!

In that time span, the Obama camp has raised: $4, 252, 184.

This highlights, yet again, a key emerging factor in the race: The Hillary camp faces the prospect of a weeks-long contest, perhaps leading all the way to the convention, during which they could find themselves dramatically outspent by their rivals.

So who won the delegate count last night? Where do Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama currently stand in the delegate battle?

The networks are differing on that question, largely depending on how they're doing the counting. Here's a rundown on what all the nets are saying about this:

• NBC News has done projections based on yesterday's returns, and they are projecting that last night, once all the votes are counted and the delegates apportioned across the districts, Obama won with 840-849 delegates, against Hillary's 829-839 delegates.

NBC concludes that Obama is winning in total pledged delegates, too: Obama has 903-912 delegates, and Hillary has 877-885. When super delegates are factored in, however, NBC finds that Hillary edges into a lead, with approximately 1,145 total versus 1,082 for Obama.

• CNN's method is a bit different. They are not projecting delegate outcomes that haven't been fully determined. Rather, their numbers are based on where their current tallying stands now, as we await all the returns. Done this way, CNN says that Hillary and Obama are basically tied in pledged delegates, 625-624

When CNN factors in super-delegates, their current ongoing tally finds Hillary leading 818-730.

• The following news orgs, meanwhile, are electing to present their current tally including super-delegates as they await ongoing returns. Done this way...

• ABC finds that Hillary leads, 1,038-940.

• CBS finds that Hillary leads 1,044 to 966.

• The Washington Post finds Hillary leading 1,000 to 902.

• And the Associated Press finds Hillary leading 845-765.

Keep in mind that those last four include super-delegate counts, and that these numbers reflect only what the news outlets are willing to declare right now as part of a tally that's ongoing — meaning that they are fleeting snapshots, not any sort of final call.

We know that this is confusing. So in the end, NBC's numbers might just be the most reliable guide to the full picture, since they represent not a momentary conclusion during an ongoing tally, but a calculation of where the totals will end up when all the returns are factored in. At this point, NBC is the closest we have to a final projection on the night's results.

The network has taken the lead in promoting Obama's candidacy. Is that helping him or is it actually hurting him?

From the "With Friends Like These" file...

Obama supporter and Virginia first lady Anne Holton, the wife of Governor Timothy Kaine, is putting together a group called "Women for Obama." Why form such a group on behalf of a candidate who's running against the first female with a real shot at becoming president?

Well, as another member of the group, Megan Beyer, wife of former lieutenant governor Donald S. Beyer, put it to The Washington Post...

Beyer said Obama's "warmth" and his early opposition to the war in Iraq are big selling points with female voters. "In many ways, he really will be the first woman president," she said.

Hmmm. At this rate, if Obama wins the Presidency, he'll be the first woman president and the second black one.

This morning, Mark Halperin floated an intriguing question: Are the Clintons financing Hillary's campaign with their own money?

Now the Clinton campaign has finally answered: Yes, they are. Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson sends over the following:

Late last month Senator Clinton loaned her campaign $5 million.The loan illustrates Sen. Clinton’s commitment to this effort and to ensuring that our campaign has the resources it needs to compete and win across this nation. We have had one of our best fundraising efforts ever on the web today and our Super Tuesday victories will only help in bringing more support for her candidacy.

The revelation suggests another emerging dynamic in the race: Now that the campaigns are committed to grinding it out for weeks and weeks, perhaps all the way until the convention. The Hillary camp faces the prospect of being dramatically outspent by the Obama campaign, which has enjoyed huge fundraising success.

In January, for instance, Obama raised $32 million -- well over double the $13.5 million Hillary raised in the same month. This perhaps explains the self-financing loan at the end of last month.

More in a bit.

Late Update: Wolfson confirms to me that the $13.5 million that Hillary raised in January does not include this $5 million.

Late Late Update: Ben Smith has Hillary's own response to this, from her press conference today:

"My opponent was able to raise more money, and we intended to be competitive, and we were, and I think the results last night proved the wisdom of my investment."

One long term consequence of the protracted Dem contest is that it's now clear that Hillary and Obama will simultaneously be battling each other while likely GOP nominee John McCain starts sharpening his attacks on Dems in preparation for a grueling general election.

McCain adviser Charlie Black made a very compelling case today that it's mathematically impossible for him to lose at this point. And McCain himself said at a presser today he was cancelling a trip to Europe to wrap things up and start taking on the Dems.

How disadvantaged will the ultimate Dem nominee be by the ongoing intra-party struggle and by McCain's head start? As Ben Smith notes, Obama didn't appear worried about this when asked about it today, saying: "It would be a problem if Senator Clinton’s voters disliked me or my voters disliked Senator Clinton -- I don’t think that’s the case."

Exit polls do bear out the fact that for all the acrimony surrounding the contest on blogs and the like, large majorities of each candidate's supporters view the other fondly. But with the fight inevitably getting more intense, and McCain uniting the GOP behind him and training fire on the Dems, this dynamic will only get more pressing.

In what may be Obama's most direct and aggressive criticism of Bill Clinton's presidency yet, the Obama campaign dropped a new mailer just before Super Tuesday that blasts "the Clintons" for wreaking massive losses on the Democratic party throughout the 1990s.

"8 years of the Clintons, major losses for Democrats across the nation," reads the mailer, which goes on to list the post-1992 losses suffered by Dems among governors, Senators and members of the House of Representatives. The mailer was forwarded to us by a political operative who told us it was sent to Alaska, though it was probably sent elsewhere, too.

Click on the below image to enlarge:

Obama has already taken direct aim at the Clinton presidency, arguing in a widely-discussed interview that the GOP was the "party of ideas" during the last decade and a half. This mailer represents more direct criticism of Bill, as well as an overt effort to tie Hillary to the Dem losses suffered under his Presidency -- and raise the specter of more Dem losses under a Hillary one.

In the mailer, Obama is pointing to Dem losses in the 1990s to bolster his core message that a Hillary candidacy would polarize the nation and cripple efforts to build a long-term progressive majority. Obama argues that he'll be less alienating than Hillary to independents and Republicans, due to the fact that he's unencumbered by the baggage of the 1990s.

The mailer could signal that Obama plans to press this argument about the Clinton presidency more aggressively in the days ahead. View the full mailer after the jump.

Read more »

Obama, speaking to reporters at a press conference this morning, had a novel response to Hillary's recent insinuation that the GOP would have an easier time swift-boating him in a general election:

"The Clinton research operation is about as good as anybody's out there," Obama said. "I assure you that, having engaged in a contest against them for the last year, that they've pulled out all the stops."

"I think that what we've shown is that, you know, we can take a punch — we're still standing," Obama continued.

With apologies to Hillary research kingpin Judd Legum, the Clinton research operation, while very aggressive, is hardly comparable to the GOP attack machine, is it?

Separately, at the presser, Obama also made some interesting comments about his route to the nomination, saying that he'll amass a higher total of pledged delegates as a way of putting pressure on committed super-delegates to honor the Democratic process, forgo back-room politics, and back the candidate with the most public support.

"If this contest comes down to super-delegates, I think we're going to be able to say that we have more pledged delegates — meaning that the Democratic voters have spoken," Obama said. "And I think that those SD's who are elected officials, party insiders, would have to think long and hard about how they approach the nomination when the people they claim to represent have said, `Obama's our guy.'"

This one is worth keeping an eye on, because we'll be hearing more of it in the days ahead. In the Clinton campaign conference call I mentioned below, Hillary pollster Mark Penn repeatedly said Obama was becoming an "establishment candidate" -- a rather strained effort to use Obama's high-profile endorsements to weaken his insurgent appeal.

Asked about Obama's loss in Massachusetts despite the Teddy Kennedy endorsement, Penn again reiterated the fact that voters making up their minds on the last day had broken for Hillary, suggesting (without quite saying) that this was somehow catalyzed by Obama's new high-profile support.

"The more that Senator Obama has shifted to becoming an establishment campaign based on endorsements, people said, `You know, it's really Senator Clinton who has the ideas for change,'" Penn told reporters.

Again: Keep in mind that in advance of yesterday's contest, Hillary had a massive lead in Massachusetts for weeks. Anyway, we'll be hearing more of this.

The story-line the Hillary campaign needed out of last night's results is that they halted Obama's momentum, and on a conference call with reporters just now, Hillary advisers sought to make the case that they had done just that.

Hillary pollster Mark Penn repeatedly cited last night's exit polls showing that Hillary won among voters who made up their minds on the last day -- proof, he said, that they'd blocked Obama's weekend surge. He downplayed the breakdown among those who decided in the last few days.

Hillary advisers also disputed the Obama camp's claim of a lead among delegates, arguing that they were ahead when you factor in superdelegates.

They also moved to frame the results of the coming week in advance, laying the groundwork for possible losses this week in Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington state by arguing that no matter who wins these contests, the delegate apportioning process all but guarantees that the delegate race will remain super tight for the foreseeable future.

"As we get farther into this, it is less and less likely that either side will be able to amass a large delegate lead," Wolfson said. "For all those who wish for a battle that goes to the convention, in terms of neither side wrapping this up, you could be looking at such a contest here."

Bottom line: Yesterday's results signal that this thing won't be decided by the conventional electoral process, and it will grind on and on for weeks to come.

The Obama campaign released a memo laying out their official delegate tally of Feb. 5th's results this morning, claiming that they won 845 delegates to Hillary's 836, a margin of nine points.

The Obama camp's total of pledged delegates for the race thus far: Obama, 908, Hillary 884.

Obama top adviser David Plouffe's spin on the results:

“By winning a majority of delegates and a majority of the states, Barack Obama won an important Super Tuesday victory over Senator Clinton in the closest thing we have to a national primary. From Colorado and Utah in the west to Georgia and Alabama in the south to Senator Clinton’s backyard in Connecticut, Obama showed that he can win the support of Americans of every race, gender, and political party in every region of the country. That’s why he’s on track to win Democratic nomination, and that’s why he’s the best candidate to defeat John McCain in November.”

More in a bit.

One of the last contests to report tonight is the New Mexico Democratic caucus, which has 26 pledged delegates up for grabs. The first thing to understand is that this really isn't a caucus — it's more like a party-run primary, with voters stopping by polling locations, voting by secret ballot and then taking off. So with the voting all over and done with, let's take a look at ... the exit poll.

The numbers show Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama splitting women at 47% each, with Obama beating Hillary among men 53%-39%. Crunching the numbers, this seems to point to a six-point win by Obama. We'll find out later if this holds out in the actual results. But as it is, Obama might just have another state to put on his list of wins for the night.

Late Update: After lagging in the early returns, Obama has now taken a lead of less than 1%, with 38% reporting.

Late Late Update: It looks like this one will be a lot closer than the exits indicated. With 98% reporting, Hillary leads by 117 votes out of over 131,000 between the two of them.

MSNBC calls California for Hillary and McCain.

The exit polls show that she won big among white women, and took two thirds of the Latino vote, offsetting Obama's massive margin among blacks.

The big question, though, is just how big Hillary's margin in California will end up being. Right now, barring a bigger-than-expected finish in this state for her, it looks as if Obama could finish the night with an edge in the delegate count.

MSNBC, however, says that early vote totals suggest that Hillary could win the state "substantially."

Meanwhile, McCain's victory in California could signal the end of the Mitt Romney campaign. According to MSNBC, the campaign will be undertaking "frank discussions" in the days ahead about what to do next.

Updated below: Obama actually wins the state.

She takes Missouri, a state dominated by rural voters that is a key presidential proving ground.

The overall map between Hillary and Obama is very fluid right now. Obama has won the key toss-up states of Connecticut, Utah, and Delaware. But, as Ben Smith notes, with the Missouri loss, Obama has fumbled three big ones he wanted: Missouri, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.

The delegate breakdown, which is ultimately what really matters, is another matter entirely. Right now, MSNBC is saying that the delegate count is Obama 594, Hillary 546. But California is still outstanding, so it's still anyone's guess who really gets to declare victory tonight.

One other outstanding question: Will tonight prove to be a repudiation of Bill Clinton, as some pundits were already predicting even before the voting had finished?

Late Update: Actually, Hillary hasn't won Missouri yet. The AP and Reuters called it, but the networks haven't called it yet, and CNN's numbers show Obama has crept into a slim lead of several thousand votes. So this state very well may go to Obama. More soon.

Late Late Update: MSNBC just called it Missouri for Obama, calling him the "apparent" winner. Fox News called it for him, too.

A big win for Obama: MSNBC and Fox call Connecticut for the Illinois Senator. He also is projected to win MInnesota, Kansas and Alabama. Here's the tally so far:

Obama:

Connecticut

Minnesota

Delware

Georgia

Alabama

Illinois

North Dakota

Kansas

Utah

Clinton:

Massachusetts

New York

New Jersey

Tennessee

Arkansas

Oklahoma

Late Update: Will tonight shape up to be a big repudiation of Bill Clinton, as WaPo's Eugene Robinson predicted even before the polls closed tonight?

MSNBC and Fox call Jersey for Hillary. Between the victory over Obama supporters Ted Kennedy and John Kerry, and this victory in a state that the Obama camp had hoped to steal out from under her, it needs to be said that it's shaping up as a good night for Hilllary. For now, anyway.

Separately, it's worth noting that the Kennedy endorsement wasn't just about Massachusetts -- it was about winning over liberals and Latinos nationwide.

Also, MSNBC just projected that Obama won Alabama. So things are in flux.

MNSBC and Fox call Massachusetts for Hillary. Early on, she had a huge lead in some polls against Obama in that state, but Teddy Kennedy's endorsement of Obama caused the race to tighten up.

Hillary's team will spin the victory as proof that she won it in spite of the fact that both the state's Senators -- and the Kennedy "machine" -- backed Obama. The Obama camp, which would have loved to win this one as a big upset, will point to her smaller-than-before margin as proof that they made it closer in a key state.

Oh, and the nets are also calling New York for Hillary.

Late Update: MSNBC calls Delaware for Obama.

Late Late Update: As expected, the Hillary camp's statement is focused heavily on Obama's high profile endorsements in the state:

One of the biggest surprises of the night is Massachusetts

Despite the fact that Senators Ted Kennedy and John Kerry were actively supporting and campaigning for Obama, Hillary Clinton won the state.

Despite the fact that the Governor of Massachusetts endorsed Obama, Hillary Clinton won the state.

Despite the fact that Obama visited Massachusetts just last night, Hillary Clinton won the state.

This is a strong victory and shows that Hillary Clinton has strength in places where Barack Obama was expected to win.

But keep in mind that Hillary had a big, big lead in polls in Massachusetts for some time.

Late Update: Hillary wins New Jersey, and Oklahoma and Tennessee.

The networks call both states for Hillary.

Oklahoma exit polls here.

The Hillary camp is spinning these wins as proof that Obama isn't the candidate with the advantage in the red states. From their campaign:

For months, the Obama campaign has been spinning that they have a monopoly on red states; tonight we showed that they don’t.

With these first two victories, Hillary Clinton has demonstrated that she can compete and win in red states.

Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton has two statements out proclaiming that his Georgia win is an early harbinger of the broad coalition he's been able to build.

There's this:

Obama's victory in Georgia was achieved through a broad coalition of voters. He not only increased his support among African American voters since South Carolina (78% in South Carolina to 86% in Georgia), but he dramatically improved his standing among white voters (from 24% in South Carolina to 43% in Georgia.)

And:

The win in Georgia tonight is Barack's strongest showing among female voters of any contest so far. In raw percentages, his highest showing so far has been 54%, in South Carolina. Adjusted for a two-way race, he would have gotten 64%. Tonight in Georgia, Barack got 64% of the vote among women, which made up 63% of the electorate.

CNN calls Georgia for Obama.

Some interesting numbers that lend comfort to Obama: Obama won 86% of the African American vote, and in addition to that, he captured 39% of the white vote, according to MSNBC exit polls.

That's nearly double the 24% of the white vote he got in South Carolina.

Late Update: More key numbers from the Georgia exit polls: Among voters who decided in the last few days, Obama won, 50%-45%. So the undecideds seem to have broken towards Obama by a worthy margin.

Late Late Update: The Obama campaign points to the victory as proof of Obama's broadening coalition.

Still Later Update: Hillary wins Oklahoma and Tennessee, and Obama wins his home state of Illinois.

Even Later Update: Hillary wins Massachusetts. While this is a big repudiation of the Kennedy endorsement of Obama, keep in mind that Hillary was way ahead of Obama in polls in the state for some time.

Much Later Update: Hillary wins New Jersey, a state that the Obama camp had hoped to steal out from under her.

CNN's first round of exit polls has undecideds breaking evenly between Hillary and Obama -- a pattern which, if it holds, would mean that Obama isn't capturing the share of undecideds his supporters are hoping for:

Primary outcomes often turn on those people who made their decisions within the last three days before the vote. According to the exit polls, Obama and Clinton are essentially splitting those voters, with 47 percent going for Obama and 46 percent for Clinton.

CNN's exits also find...

There's no doubt Democrats are torn between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. But the early exit polls show they are not bitterly divided: 72 percent of Democrats said they would be satisfied if Clinton won the party's nomination, while 71 percent say the same about Obama.

...suggesting, once again, that the acrimony that has characterized the contest on this and other blogs doesn't appear to be as pronounced among Dems in general.

Results are expected to start coming in shortly after 7 P.M., and we're blogging them right here.

Late Update: These exit numbers, however, clearly favor Obama

Hint: It's not Hillary. The Huffington Post's Sam Stein has all the details.

It's starting. Jane Hamsher of Firedoglake, Matt Stoller of OpenLeft, and Joe Sudbay of AmericaBlog all blast Hillary for accepting an invitation to debate on Fox. She'll be taking a lot of criticism over this.

Obama won't say whether he'll be accepting the invite. "We'll figure out our schedule, including any debates, soon," Obama spokesperson Bill Burton tells me. What will Obama do? Nixing the debate gives Obama a big opening to outflank Hillary with the netroots, but Obama has already appeared on Fox, and this doesn't seem like the type of battle Obama likes.

It's worth noting that here's an instance where John Edwards' absence from the race will be felt. You can bet he'd be raising his voice against participating. Without a major, top-tier Dem candidate giving voice to the case against Fox, it will be that much easier for Hillary and Obama to both accept the network's invitation.

A pretty interesting finding buried in a new report from the Center for Responsive Politics:

Clinton has outraised Obama with women—$35.1 million to his $28.8 million—but his campaign finance reports list more female donors—29,000 versus her 25,000. Clinton and Obama's percentages from women are about even—45 percent of her total and 43 percent of his.

Keep in mind that the number of donors is the key stat -- and on that front, Obama has raised money from more female contributors than Hillary has. These numbers refer to all of 2007.

Meanwhile, Think Progress points to another noteworthy stat: Obama has raised more cash from members of the military -- $94,000 -- than any other Dem, Hillary included.

Late Update: It should be noted that the report says that only donors who gave $200 or more are itemized. Still, this is an eye-opening comparison.

Mike Huckabee has just won the first contest of the day: The West Virginia state Republican convention. Rather than choose delegates through a caucus or a primary, roughly 1,200 delegates to the convention were empowered to select 18 federal delegates, with the winner taking all.

Mitt Romney made sure to invest himself into this race, and he personally addressed the gathering this morning along with Huckabee and Ron Paul. But here are the results from the first ballot: Romney 41%, Huckabee 33%, McCain 16%, Paul 10%. The final count: Huckabee 52%, Romney 47%.

Thus, all it took for Huck to win was for the majority of McCain and Paul supporters to swing their votes to Huck, and Romney's hope of getting 18 delegates went down the drain. The bottom line: Not only do the other candidates dislike Romney — their supporters all hate him, too.

One side effect that the protracted Dem primary will have is that we'll be watching still more debates in a race that's already seen more than a dozen of them.

The Hillary camp, for instance, sent out word today that she's agreed to two more verbal showdowns with Obama: A February 10 debate on ABC with George Stephanopoulos; and a February 27 debate in CNN in Houston.

And the Hillary campaign wants still more of them. On a conference call today Hillary pollster Mark Penn declared that the Clinton campaign would like to see a debate between Hillary and Obama once a week through the end of the contest.

Camp Hillary must think she outshines him in that sort of forum, and more debates lessen the degree to which Obama can frame the race only with his superior oratory. But this is clearly a gamble, because as many commentators have noted, the new head-to-head format allows Obama to rise to her stature level in a way that wasn't possible when John Edwards was in the race.

Late Update: The Huffington Post reports that Hillary has also accepted a debate invitation -- from Fox News, risking the anger of progressive activists. An Obama spokesperson told HuffPo that no decisions about any of the above debates had yet been made.

Today's Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, their final national polls before Super Tuesday, show Hillary Clinton and John McCain with the leads going into this crucial day — a sign that both of them are the overall favorites for tonight.

Here are the Dem numbers, compared to yesterday's:

Gallup: Clinton 47% (+0), Obama 42% (-1)

Rasmussen: Clinton 47% (+1), Obama 40% (+0)

On the Republican side, John McCain's support may have dipped a bit in Gallup, but he's still doing more than fine:

Gallup: McCain 41% (-4), Romney 24% (-1), Huckabee 21% (+4)

Rasmussen: McCain 34% (+1), Romney 30% (+0), Huckabee 20% (-2)

With John McCain on the verge of winning the Republican nomination, the once-complacent anti-McCain forces on the right are getting louder than ever. This morning, James Dobson released a statement to Laura Ingraham's radio show, declaring that under no circumstances would he support McCain in the general election — a potential blow to the Arizona senator, since it could discourage turnout among some evangelical voters.

Here's a YouTube featuring the audio of Ingraham reading the statement:

Some of the reasons why Dobson won't support McCain:

• McCain opposes a Constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

• McCain supports funding for "embryonic stem cell research to kill nascent human beings."

• McCain was part of the "Gang of 14" compromise, preserving the filibuster

• McCain "often uses foul and obscene language."

Dobson was quite firm on what he'll do if McCain gets the nomination: "I simply will not cast a ballot for president for the first time in my life."

A source forwards me the talking points that the Hillary campaign sent out to surrogates today instructing them on how to talk to the media about Super Tuesday. One jumps out...

Daily Talking Points -- Super Tuesday -- February 5, 2008

CLOSING ARGUMENT:

READY ON DAY 1 TO SOLVE OUR URGENT PROBLEMS

Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama would change history by becoming President.

The real question for voters today is this: Who can actually deliver the solutions our country needs?

The "day one" experience argument, obviously, has been a Hillary talking point since the last Ice Age. But here it's being put in the context of an acknowledgment that both she and Obama would change history by becoming president.

The idea seems to be to neutralize the sense of history that's been built up around Obama's candidacy by pointing out the obvious: The election of the first female president would make history, too.

It's an argument that the Hillary campaign has failed to make as forcefully as it might have. Camp Hillary was caught off guard by the surprising success Obama and his campaign have had in making his supporters sense that they're caught up in a historical movement and even feel like they have a stake in the making of history. One wonders whether it's too late for the Hillary campaign to counter this.

We've got lots of time to kill before we get results today. So why not listen to the robocall that Jack Nicholson recorded for Hillary that's being pumped into thousands of homes today...

The National Organization for Women chapter in Connecticut is joining the Hillary campaign's condemnation of Barack Obama's "present" votes on some abortion bills back in Illinois, sending out an e-mail to its members that quotes the head of Illinois NOW: "We made it clear at the time that we disagreed with the strategy ... Voting present doesn't provide a platform from which to show leadership and say with conviction that we support a woman's right to choose and these bills are unacceptable."

Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), an Obama supporter, sent out an e-mail rebutting the charge, noting that none other than Illinois Planned Parenthood lobbied for a "present" vote, even if NOW disagreed. "The facts are clear — in the Illinois state senate, choice advocates asked strong pro-choice legislators like Senator Obama to vote 'present' on Republican-designed bills like a ban on partial birth abortion to protect a woman's right to choose."

So what do the final polls forecast for today? Well, the predictions for the key states are that Hillary Clinton will win California and Missouri — and that Barack Obama will win California and Missouri:

California

SurveyUSA: Clinton 52%, Obama 42%

Zogby: Obama 49%, Clinton 36%

Missouri

SurveyUSA: Clinton 54%, Obama 43%

Zogby: Obama 45%, Clinton 42%

So there you have it: Two pollsters, each with pretty good track records, giving wildly different poll results for today. Obviously they can't both be right, and there's at least a decent chance that they're both wrong. We'll find out the truth of the matter tonight.

Late Update: Another thing to consider is that a large number of ballots have already been cast by mail. SurveyUSA gives those to Hillary by a wide margin, while the widely respected Field Poll registered a one-point edge to ... Obama. In short, there simply isn't any real way to know right now if any of these polls are accurately predicting the outcome.

Thanks for bearing with us during out technical difficulties today. Here's a roundup of the various state polls that came out today, and what sense of direction they give for the Democratic primaries tomorrow. The bottom line: Your guess is really as good as ours about what's going to happen.

Hillary Clinton appears to be on track for roughly 55% in the New York Primary:

Quinnipiac: Clinton 53%, Obama 39%

SurveyUSA: Clinton 56%, Obama 38%

PPP (D): Clinton 52%, Obama 32%

Barack Obama, meanwhile, looks to be on the verge of an even greater majority in his home state:

SurveyUSA: Obama 66%, Clinton 30%

More polls after the jump.

Read more »

Here's a quick rundown on all the news nuggets that are floating around on the eve of the biggie tomorrow:

* Hillary only raised $13.5 million in January -- a good deal less than the $32 million Obama raised in the same month.

* Hillary pollster Mark Penn predicts that she'll be ahead of Obama in delegates after tomorrow -- but echoes the Obama camp's spin that this is all about the long haul.

* The anti-McCain movement among conservatives continues to rage.

* Bob Dole tells Rush that McCain is as conservative as Jesse Helms.

* In a last-minute spasm of desperation, Mitt Romney uncorks an ad hitting McCain with the ultimate insult: He's just like Hillary.

* And Romney isn't even done -- he also tries to link McCain to John Kerry.

* A last minute poll finds Hillary holding onto an eight point lead in all-important California.

* Joe Klein talks sense about Hillary's emotional moment today.

* A high-profile New York backer of Obama, in a curious moment, tells The Huffington Post that Harlem is not Bill Clinton's "plantation." Did someone suggest that it was?

If we weren't having such severe technical issues -- apologies again, and thanks again for your patience -- I would have posted this many hours ago. Anyway...

Michelle Obama went on Good Morning America today and sent decidedly mixed signals as to whether she'd back Hillary, should she become the nominee. Michelle did say that everyone would work hard for "whoever the nominee is." But when asked directly whether she'd back Hillary, she said: "I'd have to think about that."

Michelle also said that Obama was the "only" candidate who could take the country in a new direction, suggesting that Hillary represents nothing but a continuation of the status quo. This is a pretty harsh assessment, both because Hillary would of course be our first female president, and because, as Paul Krugman says, Hillary and Obama "are far closer to each other on every issue than either is to any Republican." Take a look...

The Obama camp moves to frame tomorrow's results in advance, sending out a new expectations-dampening memo from top Obama adviser David Plouffe arguing basically that anything short of "wrapping up" the nomination tomorrow constitutes something of a defeat for Hillary.

"Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could `wrap up' the nomination on February 5th," Plouffe writes. "As the `inevitable' national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama’s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow."

The memo showcases another argument emerging from Camp Obama right now: That the last few weeks have been all about wiping out the large lead Hillary has held in some states. In other words, the closeness of the contest tomorrow constitutes victory for them.

"Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5," Plouffe writes. "Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests."

So if Hillary wins tomorrow, this is the argument we'll be hearing. Full memo after the jump.

Read more »

A religious reader forwards us an email that the Obama campaign blasted out to what apparently is a mass list of people who do religious outreach and charity work:

Dear Friend,

After college, I worked as an organizer on the streets of the South Side of Chicago with a range of faith communities and neighborhood organizations. I had the opportunity to meet extraordinary people of faith ­ single mothers, students, pastors and parishioners. In that time, which was formative to my own Christian faith, I realized that everyone has a story to tell if others simply take the time to listen.

Through your work ­ in social ministry, education, and advocacy ­ you listen to these stories every day and take action, working for the common good. In the face of many of our greatest moral challenges, from unjust war, to growing economic inequality and the global scourge of disease, you live out that Gospel mandate that calls us to be our brother’s keeper and our sister’s keeper.

It is with an abiding respect for this work that I am writing to invite you and members of your community to join my campaign for a new kind of politics in America.

Obama's appealing directly to religious voters by putting the call for a new politics in a religious context -- which becomes more interesting when you keep in mind that it's partly about pushing back against the false Muslim smear rumors, though this email is a lot more than just that.

In the email, Obama also claims that he is "building the largest grassroots network of people of faith in any campaign in history." You have to wonder, though, whether Obama's faith outreach really exceeds the GOP's Evangelical outreach in recent years. Still, this sort of stuff does give Obama another argument in the primary -- that as a general election candidate he could conceivably do a lot to counter the right-wing smear that the Dems are the "Godless" party.

In a sign that she may be losing ground in a state that should have been in the bag for her, Hillary Clinton is now polling under 50% in four different polls of New Jersey, a state that is right next door to her home base of New York, and shares a media market. The numbers:

Quinnipiac: Clinton 48%, Obama 43%

Strategic Vision (R): Clinton 47%, Obama 41%

Zogby: Clinton 43%, Obama 43%

Mason-Dixon: Clinton 47%, Obama 39%

New Jersey still has to be seen as leaning to Hillary, but Obama would pick up a fair share of delegates here if Hillary only has a narrow majority.

This morning's Zogby polls show John McCain on track for some big victories tomorrow, with California being the only real trouble spot:

California:
Romney 40% (+3)
McCain 32% (-2)
Huckabee 12%

Missouri:
McCain 35% (-1)
Huckabee 27%(+0)
Romney 24% (+2)

New Jersey:
McCain 52% (-2)
Romney 26% (+3)
Huckabee 7% (+0)

New York:
McCain 53% (+4)
Romney 19% (-4)
Huckabee 8% (+0)

This morning's set of Zogby tracking polls shows Barack Obama with clear momentum in the key primary states, with apparent leads in both California and Missouri, plus a big one in Georgia:

California:
Obama 46% (+1)
Clinton 40% (-1)

Georgia:
Obama 48% (+0)
Clinton 31% (+3)

Missouri:
Obama 47% (+4)
Clinton 42% (-2)

New Jersey:
Clinton 43% (+0)
Obama 43% (+1)

Zogby credits Obama's movement to a "big Sunday bounce," but we'll find out soon enough whether that keeps up into Monday and, most importantly, the Tuesday election itself.

This morning's CNN poll gives Barack Obama the national lead over Hillary Clinton — the first time ever that Obama has led in a major national poll, though the result is still technically a statistical dead heat. Here are the numbers, compared to the last poll from just over two weeks ago:

Obama 49% (+16)
Clinton 46% (+4)

This poll would seem to indicate that Obama is picking up most of the former John Edwards supporters, as well as a good number of the undecideds.

Barack Obama has picked up the endorsement of yet another prominent member of the Kennedy family: California First Lady Maria Shriver. At a UCLA rally today starring Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama and Caroline Kennedy, Shriver made a surprise appearance and announced that Obama is her candidate, too.

Here's Kos' take on the significance of the endorsement: "Keep in mind, this is now top-of-the-fold news in every California newspaper tomorrow, it will lead every newscast. And it should push into Tuesday as the governor is forced to answer questions about it."

Here it is, Barack Obama's ad set to run on various local TV stations during the Super Bowl:

Given the fact that the ad is aimed at Super Bowl watchers, it makes some sense to put the visual focus of the ad on the massive crowds that show up at his rallies — with nearly the same overall vibe as a sporting event.

In short, this ad is probably not meant to be a pitch to women voters.

Another national poll -- this one from Pew -- shows Obama closing on Hillary in the run-up to Super Tuesday. Here are the numbers, as compared with this same poll earlier in January:

Clinton 46% (before 46%)

Obama 38% (before 31%)

Hillary's non-movement suggests that much of Edwards' support has gone to Obama and the remainder of it remains undecided, the pollsters suggest. Obama jumped seven points in the last few weeks nationally to close within single digits of Hillary.

What's more, the poll shows that Obama's national support has jumped an astonishing 20 points since December.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, McCain has dramatically expanded his lead: He has 42%, putting him 20 points ahead of Romney, who has 22%. Huckabee has 20%.

Separately, the poll has some very interesting things to say indeed about whether Bill's recent antics have damaged Hillary against Obama. Take a look.

Hillary appeared this morning on ABC's This Week, and in a surprisingly sharp exchange, she charged that Barack Obama's claim that she opposes negotiating with hostile foreign leaders is misleading.

From ABC's official transcript...

CLINTON: Senator Obama consistently misstates what I had said and really tries to gloss over his answer to a question in an early debate.

The question was very specific -- would you, without precondition, meet with five of the worst dictators, including Ahmadinejad from Iran and others, without precondition, personally, as president? He said yes, I said no.

That has nothing to do with whether or not we would have diplomatic efforts with all of the countries. I've been a longtime advocate of having diplomatic processes with Iran and Syria.

QUESTION: So you're open to direct contact with all those countries.

CLINTON: I think it's imperative...with Iran and Syria, most certainly. I have said that. But it would be at low level diplomatic efforts between our ambassadors and between our diplomats, because I don't think a president should put the prestige of the United States on the line to meet with these people unless you have some idea of what is going to happen...

I really hope that Senator Obama will quit deliberately misstating what I said in order to avoid scrutiny for what he says.

Here are the facts of the matter. Obama recently said that Hillary embraces "the Bush-Cheney policy of not talking to leaders we don't like."

Both Hillary and Obama agree on the question of whether the United States as a nation should negotiate with hostile foreign governments. The point they disagree on is whether the President himself (or herself) should commit to a face to face meeting in the first year with hostile foreign leaders. Obama said he would; Hillary said she wouldn't. As she said above, in the case of Iran and Syria, the initial discussions should be "low level" contacts.

Hillary's position isn't the "Bush-Cheney policy," which until recently was opposition to any and all negotiation with those countries.

Whichever of those positions you support, and even if you think this is a meaningless distinction, the plain facts are that this is where each stands on these questions.

Late Update: Here's the Obama campaign's extensive fact check on this.

Late Late Update: A commenter notes that Obama agreed that he would be willing to meet with hostile foreign leaders, not that he would commit to it. Here's the question from the debate that Obama answered affirmatively:

In the spirit of that type of bold leadership, would you be willing to meet separately, without precondition, during the first year of your administration, in Washington or anywhere else, with the leaders of Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea, in order to bridge the gap that divides our countries?

So Obama agreed that he would be "willing" to meet "without precondition during the first year" with the leaders of those countries. I suppose that's not identical to "committing" to such a meeting, but it seems pretty close.

Even so, it's important to be as precise as possible here. So the point of disagreement between Hillary and Obama on this is that Obama would be willing to meet "without precondition" in his first year as President with the leaders of thouse countries. Hillary wouldn't be willing to do this.

In addition to the new Zogby poll showing a slight lead for Obama in California, two other polls are also out this morning. The new MSNBC/McClatchy poll finds Hillary ahead by nine points:

Hillary 45%

Obama 36%

Undecided 16%

That's a stunning number of undecideds with only two days to go until Feb. 5th. Meanwhile, a new Field poll shows that Obama has closed to within a statistical tie of Hillary, 36%-34%.

Guess how many undecideds? Eighteen percent. Bottom line: We have no idea what's going to happen on Tuesday.

A new Zogby poll in California — a state that may well decide the direction of the Democratic race — shows Barack Obama taking a small lead over Hillary Clinton, within the margin of error. Obama has 45% to Clinton's 41%, with Obama's 20-point lead among men making up for Hillary's 11-point lead with women.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney has taken an apparent edge himself of 37% to John McCain's 34%, followed by Mike Huckabee with 12%. Although McCain has the support of the state Republican establishment, led by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Romney leads among those who say immigration and the war on terror are their top issues — probably owing to McCain's support for immigration reform and his opposition to torture.

Some more Zogby state poll numbers are available after the jump.

Read more »

The new ABC/Washington Post national poll shows a tight race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Here are the numbers, compared to the previous poll from three weeks ago:

Clinton 47% (+5)
Obama 43% (+6)

John Edwards was at 11% in the last poll, an indication that his support may be breaking fairly even between two remaining candidates in the country as a whole — though the breakdowns have also seemed to vary from state to state in other polls.

On the Republican side, it's a different story. John McCain is way ahead, and appears to have picked up virtually all of Rudy Giuliani's past support:

McCain 48% (+20)
Romney 24% (+5)
Huckabee 20% (-4)
Paul 7% (+4)

Mitt Romney can now claim to have won the final Republican contest before Super Tuesday: The Maine caucuses, which are being held town by town throughout this weekend. With 68% of the towns reporting, the Associated Press has projected Romney the winner with 52% of the state delegates to John McCain's 21%, followed by Ron Paul at 19% and Mike Huckabee with 6%.

That said, Romney probably won't get much of a bump here. After all, Maine is a small and out of the way state — and his victory in Wyoming didn't help him any in New Hampshire three days later.