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Zogby: Today's Michigan GOP Race Down To The Wire

This morning's Zogby tracking poll in Michigan puts today's primary at a dead heat. Here are the numbers, compared to the ones released yesterday:

McCain 27% (+0)
Romney 26% (+2)
Huckabee 15% (+0)
Paul 8% (+0)
Thompson 5% (+0)
Giuliani 3% (-3)

Some commentary from John Zogby: "Okay, so who needs interesting? Our final track, to be exact, in Michigan is McCain 27.1% to Romney’s 25.6% and Huckabee at 14.9%. Our call center made 553 calls just on Monday to get as close a read on this as late as we could. Monday alone stood at Romney 26.7% to McCain’s 26.3%. I looked at the calls that were made before 5:30 PM and two candidates were also tied – pretty much as they were after 5:30 PM. There just isn’t any momentum here."


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If McCain wins this he is going to seal the deal and eventually go on to be the Republican nominee. If this happens we better not come out of our primaries with Hillary, unless we are BIG fans of losing (the presidency and Congress).

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Amen. The lack of consensus in left blogistan on Hillary being general election poison continues to astound me.

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I agree. It is really amazing how little it is being considered, especially with a likely McCain win for the Republicans. I mean even IF Hillary was a slightly better candidate than Barack (which she definitely isn't in my opinion), it would seem to be common sense to still go for Obama in order to win, if it were fairly certain (which it is) that Hillary would lose to McCain. This is even more important given that the Republicans will use anti-Hillary sentiment to mobilize their voters and achieve record turnout, not only taking down Hillary, but taking down every Democrat trying to get elected (or reelected) to Congress in Red/Purple areas. Having her on the ticket will destroy our chances of taking back the presidency and our chances of increasing (or not losing Congress altogether) our control over Congress in 2008 (or 2010 at the latest, if we want to see a repeat of the 1994 Republican Revolution that crippled Bill's presidency.)

I think this definitely needs to be a concern, and the fact that people aren't really thinking ahead is quite scary. I guarantee the Republicans and just waiting for us to nominate Hillary and seal our own fate.

Not to mention, Obama is the better candidate in all respects, so he should win on that count too :P

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I'd still have to give the momentum to McCain. Mitt Romney is banking on Michigan because it's where he was born and where his dad was governor, but he's already shown that he's a weak vote-getter.

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I'd have to agree that Hillary supporters are being irresponsible by pretending all of this is taking place in a vacuum. They are viciously attacking our party's best candidate in decades, and the person who is our best chance at both winning and bringing this country together, all so the Clintons can continue their futile quest back to the White House. All of this will be for nothing though, because if the Clintons are successful in snaking through this primary in the end, it will just end with us losing to McCain, and losing our position in Congress. We'll be back where we were 2001-2006 and all of the attack ads and lies and veiled racism will have had absolutely no effect other than to divide our party, take down the person who would be the country's first black president, and to seal our party's place in history as the biggest bunch of losers. Seriously, if we can't win after 8 years of Bush and the Republicans ruining the country and the planet, when ARE we going to be able to win?

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Though current state polls show Obama does better than Hillary against McCain, the guys are pretty much in a dead heat in the swing states. In fact, they are in a dead heat in states that typically go reliably Dem like OR. So, don't be so sure that Obama has a chance of beating McCain. McCain is a well-known quantity. It is unlikely that anything the Dems can sling at him will affect people's opinions of him. He may not be popular with evangelicals, but you can be sure they will come out to vote for him if he is the nominee. His record on pro-life is solid and the war is the new religious cause of the day for the wingnut crowd. He is also moderate enough on environment, international law, multilateralism, and campaign finance to sway a lot of indies his way. All he has to do to clinch his victory is to promise to end the war (ala Nixon in '72). Obama, OTOH, has not endured the rigors of national politics yet. He will be mercilessly swiftboated, and if the Supreme court upholds voter ID laws (as appears likely), we can expect major voter suppression of minorities in the GE. Dems who want a Dem in '08 really have to make a hard choice now. Fight for the Dem of your choice or do everything you can to stop McCain (including switching parties to vote against him in the primaries).

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Heretic, the numbers may say that now, but you just can't overestimate the power of charisma, which cuts both ways here: Obama is incredibly charismatic, Hillary just the opposite. The press loathes Hillary. Drag this out over an election season and watch the mushy middle collapse away from Hillary just as it did for Kerry, issues be damned.

Obama might not win, but with Hillary we don't have a chance in hell.

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Mittmentum, baby! Check it and cheer:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/15/74339/3525.

Anything to stop Saint John the Good might preserve our chances in the fall. Hillary v. McCain? Hello Bush Part III. And thanks again, NH women!

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Many of us here are going to cross over and vote for Romney. It's the way we do it here. He is the only one who is running ads against the other Republicans. If he wins, then the Republican field will continue to be a mess. We do not want McCain. He would be harder to beat.


Consider this ticket: Clinton/Obama

It would be a real winner.

Hillary is not your enemy.

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These comments are right on the money ... clear as day that HRC will simnply get creamed by the Saint. The O-Man has personality, charisma, press love ... everything she lacks. And the prospect of the welcome end of the Clinton Era in our party is small comfort. As someone said, if after these last eight years, we can't win -- then when?

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Clinton/Obama in '08!!!!!

Hillary is not your enemy. Many women want to vote for a woman in their lifetime. More women vote than men. Don't be so negative about Hillary. She is darn smart and a Clinton/Obama ticket would be very hard to beat!

Think about it.

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Hilary would beat McCain. Obama might crush McCain, or he might lose a nailbiter. I think the commenters above are a bit overconfident on the chances of a relatively untested candidate who has never really been in a contested election before and has had approximately zero dollars in negative GOP advertising sent his way.

He might be the best candidate, but I'm just tired of the Obamahubris and blanket rejections of Hilary. The reason the left blogistan hasn't come to a consensus (to answer westoframe's question) is that there is no obvious answer here.

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Like the Clintons would want to go anywhere near the person who has jeopardized their "divine right" to be the democratic nominee and retake the White House. Give me a break, there is no way in hell, do you know anything about the Clintons at all?

And do you think Obama would want to team up with Hillary after this disgustingly dirty campaign she has run against him? Could you be the right hand of someone who had spread lies about you for months and done everything they could do destroy your credibility and your image? Hell no. I'm not even the target of the Clinton machine and I'm so disgusted with their slimy "win at all costs" character that I wouldn't vote for her in a hundred years. I know many people feel the same way. They are NOT GOOD PEOPLE, and some of us have principles.

So no, there will never be a Clinton/Obama ticket, or an Obama/Clinton ticket. It will never happen. And Clinton is the enemy for any Democrat who wants to actually have a shot at winning the presidential election and who wants to win more seats in Congress instead of losing big. She is the Democratic party's greatest liability, and the fact that so many people can't see it does not bode well for our chances of survival.

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Every undecided and non-Clinton DEM voting today should vote Kucinich to offset all the REPs crossing the line to vote for Clinton.

Imagine a world where having green stains on ones knees does not mean you win by DEFAULT.

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I can't disagree with your concerns about Obama, Joe, but I also can't agree that Hillary has much chance of beating McCain. Based on all I've seen over the past few national elections, and what decides them, she's about the worst possible candidate you could find if you tried.

Having basic likability, charisma, and the ability to laugh off stupid attacks and make the attackers look stupid, which Obama has shown himself capable of, is so much of the game. He may not win, but he has a pretty good shot.

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This post was about the Republican primary but it took the Obama-cult once again use this as a "Hillary Will Doom Us" thread.

Give it a rest, people. You are not going to convince anyone to change their minds here, and what is more likely is that you will continue to repulse people away from Obama.

Anyway, back on-point - I think that the Dems can tip this thing to Mitt. This poll does not appear to take into account the push to get Dems to vote for Romney to keep him in the race.

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I just wish the rest of the left blogosphere were as savvy as those on this list. Of COURSE HRC would be creamed by McCain; it is the only repub-dem contest that consistently goes repub. Say what you will about polls, there is at least always consistency on this one. If it were McCain-Obama, then McCain's age becomes an issue; the youth vote comes out as it did for Iowa; and McCain no longer has a corner on the "maverick" market, as he certainly would against HRC. It really seems our only chance.

My great fear is that McCain chooses Lieberman. Yesterday's WSJ editorial is just a taste of the inevitable campaign to come: the surge was a great success, an eternal presence in Iraq, etc.

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Heretic -

All he has to do to clinch his victory is to promise to end the war (ala Nixon in '72).

And how the hell can he credibly do this, when he just called for the US to stay in Iraq for a hundred years?

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I wonder why people think Romney's on the ropes. He's had two second place finishes (IA and NH) and one first place finish (WY). If he wins MI he'll have two first place finishes and two second place finishes. McCain barely won third in IA, Huckabee was a distant third in NH. I think a win for Romney in MI will slow the nationwide McMentum. I think the Republican race is very fluid. Romney is dipping nationally because his finishes have been spun against him. But once he gets a more publicized win (i.e., not ignored, like WY), his numbers will go up.

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Ok Obama people let' look at the numbers. If you really value electability over McCain, I would hope that you all switch your support over to Edwards. In the recent polls, McCain creams Clinton AND Obama, but not Edwards. Only one poll shows Edward behind McCain. Also notice that Edwards does the best against everyone else.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Sorry this is off-topic, but I couldn't resist.

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OK, but Eric, some realpolitik: Edwards is not going to take any state before or on super Tuesday. Or course one can hope and will things to be different but we seem to be in the realm of the improbable here.

I know this is heresy -- and I have to note that ideologically I am certainly closer to Edwards but for that matter I am even closer to DK -- but I do wonder what would happen if Edwards would bow out after Nevada and SC. I am even starting to think that ethically it is encumbent upon him to do so.

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Down to The Wire, eh? I vote Lester Freamon in that case. Go Lester!

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As crazy as this sounds, it is looking more and more like Iraq will be something of a second-tier issue in this year's campaign. I know, I know...but hear me out.

When's the last time you heard the top Dem candidates rail on that issue? All we hear is "Change Change Change". What's more, the economy is going in to the absolute toilet and will probably be THE paramount issue by this fall when we will officially be 2 quarters in to a recession.

The media is reporting a warm fuzzy from Iraq ("The surge is working") and the weekend talking heads are so wrapped up in the election nuances that Iraq is fading somewhat from the thoughts of our A.D.D society.

In that case the election will be about issues and not necessarily about McCain's strong defense background or Obama's theme of togetherness. I believe that Hillary and her surrogates are sensing this so they are using words like "fairy tale" to contrast their position.

I could be wrong but that's where I see this election headed.

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What i dont seem to understand is how we try to say some candidates are better than others.But when it all comes down to it. They are different people of different social classes that care very little for us unless its around election time.All of them are corrupt, scheming, backstabbing liars in their own ways.We cant and shouldnt trust any of them. They talk to much of change without telling us how.The Democrats feed off of our fear of another republican president and the Republicans feed off our fear of 9/11.
HA!
Im sure im not telling anyone anything they didnt know. Im actually asking a question and that question is why do we get so angry at the slander thrown back and forth between canditates about sex,stances,family issues, drugs(oh god not those awful things)and for christs sake race! are we supposed to feel comfortable voting for people like this.
i digress.
why do we get so angry at one candidate slandering another? when all we do(and i mean us) is start slandering that candidate right back and claim justification on it?

but what do i know. im a naive teenager right?just asking.

and by the way. i cant stand the word slander.

and i apologize for any pain youve felt while reading this. im not a very organized person

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