Zogby Gives McCain Nine-Point Lead In New Hampshire
Today's Zogby tracking poll in New Hampshire, the last one before the primary, shows John McCain well-positioned to win the Republican primary. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday's:
McCain 36% (+2)
Romney 27% (-2)
Huckabee 10% (+0)
Giuliani (+0)
Paul 9% (+3)
Commentary from John Zogby:
McCain opens up his lead, though Romney had a good day. But the 3-day average favors McCain. He leads big among Independents, though Paul is beginning to draw some of the Indies’ support and is now polling double digits again in the North – taking votes away from McCain. Paul does very well among 18-29 year olds. McCain also leads among Republicans, men and women, Moderates, and Conservatives. Again, a good day for Romney, but will he have enough time?
Comments (3)
Dee Illuminati wrote on January 8, 2008 8:54 AM:Paul does very well among 18-29 year olds.
In four years that is going to be critical as the baby boomers expire and voting demographics change.
The marginalization of these entry voters into the GOP, and keep in mind that these are registered GOP voters, by FAUX and the Luntz crowd will have blowback beyond the primaries.
Branding and advertisement, buzz, and shifting media will prove that FAUX has permanently alienated this group.
It will be interesting to see if the number of 'remember the alamo 911's' the Rudy crowd will surpass the '911 truthers' or the Paul crowd? My bet is that these 10% unless converted by the GOP will be the precise demographic margin of victory for the Democratic candidate this fall.
Zolgby, NH GOP, and others are seeing this new 'media savy' ex-X'rs as a unique marketing niche. I had even commented that TPM had done a poor job of incorporating this crowd in a constructive way until the Luntz thread.
It is one thing to prefer another GOP candidate over Paul, or to be a Democrat, but to treat Paul like Alan Keyes was a mistake that transcended the primary and will be felt in ad dollars as advertisement targets this emerging demographic.
It is this 10% that zolgby broke out of the analysis that will determine the election, and I bet will produce more votes than Rudy when the results are in and the averages nationally are factored.
While I can only speculate, my guess is that if there had to be a second choice vote now, that that vote would accrue to Obama, I would love to see the analysis of that, and then ask the question: Just how bad has the last 7 years been for the future of the GOP?
Anonymous wrote on January 8, 2008 8:57 AM:At Buzzflash
Mob of angry Republicans chase Hannity through streets, chant "FOX News sucks!"
what is koool, Apple electronics and Xbox
what is not, FAUX t-shirts
abg wrote on January 8, 2008 5:24 PM:The initial post gives zero support to Giuliani. Is that correct, or was a number dropped in the retyping?
