Zogby: Big Iowa Bounce For Obama, None For McCain
So with a few days of post-Iowa polling behind us, just how much of an effect have we seen in New Hampshire? A comparison between Zogby's pre-Iowa benchmarks and this morning's polls — which are composed of a pure post-Iowa sample over three days — gives the answer.
Obviously, Barack Obama has enjoyed a huge jump in the polls, but it turns out that Mitt Romney's Iowa defeat hasn't created any real benefit for John McCain:
Democrats:
Obama 39% (+13)
Clinton 29% (-3)
Edwards 19% (-1)
Richardson 6% (-1)Republicans:
McCain 34% (+0)
Romney 29% (-1)
Huckabee 10% (+0)
Giuliani 9% (+0)
Paul 6% (-1)
John McCain may well win New Hampshire, but it wouldn't be because of any bounce in his favor — rather, it would be because of the absence of a bounce for Mitt Romney, who had been counting on one from an Iowa victory that never came.
Comments (3)
JH wrote on January 7, 2008 10:04 AM:Looks like Huckabee may be the real Mitt-slayer ultimately, but not in New England.
NCSteve wrote on January 7, 2008 10:28 AM:Oh well, can't have everything.
Regardless of who gets the Republican nomination, its clear the party establishment is going to be deeply ambivalent about him. That's one of the things that sunk Poppy in '92.
brm wrote on January 7, 2008 11:17 AM:The DLC princess is going to get trounced
Celebrate the end of the Bush-Clinton era of politics.
The debate performance just killed her in NH. I know all the Clintonites scoffed at Luntz's focus group. But that is exactly what NH voters think of her.
Another reason is her AUMF vote. In the beginning of the campaign, she took a question on that from a NH voter, and dismissed the questioner, by saying if you dont like my vote on the AUMF, vote for someone else.
We heard you Hillary and we are going to do that tomorrow in record numbers
