Your Election Central Guide To What's Ahead In Prez Race
Primaries, caucuses, and more primaries -- now that we know that the Democratic and Republican races are in it for the long haul, what exactly lies ahead?
What primaries are the key races? Who's leading in which states? What are the main issues at play in each local contest? What local players are backing whom?
Our full road map to what's ahead is after the jump.
Michigan Primary — January 15
Democrats: Not only has this rogue primary been stripped of its national delegates, but only one of the top-tier candidates will be on the ballot. The dispute between the state and national parties led Barack Obama and John Edwards — but not Hillary Clinton — to remove their names. So the choices on the ballot will be Hillary, Dodd, Kucinich, Gravel and "uncommitted." As a result, supporters of Obama and Edwards, such as Obama backer John Conyers, are encouraging their people to get out and vote for "uncommitted" as a vote of no confidence in Hillary Clinton. Hillary currently leads "uncommitted" by a strong margin in all the polls, even exceeding the 50% mark against this literally non-existent competition.
Republicans: The big issue here is job losses, with the Republican pitches revolving entirely around who can jump-start the state's economy. After he pulled his ads in Florida and South Carolina, Mitt Romney appears to be making his last stand in his native state, where his father was governor in the 1960s. Meanwhile, 2000 primary winner John McCain is hoping to ride to another win here, with a campaign that is stressing his experience, honesty and electability in an effort to win over independents and some Dems voting in the Republican primary due to a lack of a serious Dem contest, the same constituencies he won over in 2000.
Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee has heavily courted the state's evangelical community while emphasizing his working-class background. Romney currently leads in most polls, but McCain has a narrow edge in a few. A victory for McCain would help seal his new-found frontrunner status; a defeat for Romney would probably put the final nail in his coffin.
Nevada Caucuses — January 19
Democrats: This one is turning into the next big contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Hillary has the support of many establishment Democrats in the state, such as Congresswoman Shelly Berkley, and the head of her state campaign is none other than Harry Reid's son. Obama has the support of the state SEIU and the Culinary Workers Union, which are expected to deliver a lot of members to the caucus. The first poll released this year has Obama up by two points, a statistical dead heat.
Hillary's approach to the state has been to build an organization from many of the state party regulars, such as Berkley and Reid, in an effort to build up overwhelming support and re-establish her frontrunner status. Meanwhile, Obama's approach to the state has been to do court those unions who oppose Hillary in an effort to get their members out to the caucus and put him over the top. The fact that these unions went for Obama is also a hint that John Edwards will have serious trouble locking down new labor support, as anti-Hillary forces seek a united front with Obama.
Republicans: This one seems to be slipping under the radar, because it's on the same day as the South Carolina GOP contest. Assuming he's still in the race after Michigan, Mitt Romney might have a built-in base here — the state's population is over 10% Mormon, and they could well make up an even higher percentage of Republican voters. The latest poll gives McCain a narrow lead, but anything could change.
Romney's approach to the state has been a lot like the other states — he's thrown a lot of money at the place. Meanwhile, look out for McCain to get new support from state party leaders as he becomes the new establishment candidate.
South Carolina Primary — January 19 for the GOP, January 26 for the Dems
Democrats: This state has to be considered a must-win for Obama, because African-Americans are expected to make up roughly half of the Dem electorate. Obama currently has a lead in the polls, with Hillary in second and John Edwards in a very distant third. Hillary has sought to make inroads with black voters, while Obama has been making progress on solidifying their support. Edwards, meanwhile, is making a stand here based on his working-class upbringing — and it might just be his last stand, judging by his apparent pull-out from Nevada.
Republicans: This state will be make or break for Mike Huckabee, who has to prove that he can solidify evangelical support for additional wins after Iowa, and build a victory around his social conservatism. Some new polls have found John McCain taking a narrow lead, with high undecideds, but it remains to be seen if he can sustain the post-New Hampshire bump in the face of what will likely be increased scrutiny of his proposals on immigration. McCain also has the support of many in the party establishment, including Senator Lindsey Graham.
Romney spent much of the last year courting evangelicals in the state, even winning the endorsement of Bob Jones III despite his own Mormonism. But despite all the evangelical leaders backing him, many of the followers are going for Huckabee — and Romney has now pulled his ads from the state and is risking it all on Michigan.
Louisiana — January 22 caucus for the Republicans, February 9 primary for the Democrats.
Democrats: If the Democratic nomination is not already decided on February 5, then this state will be important for Barack Obama to win due to the high proportion of black voters among the state's Dems.
Republicans: If Mike Huckabee is still in the race after South Carolina, then this state will be a must-win for him, with its population of evangelical voters and immediate proximity to Arkansas. John McCain will probably be building support as the new establishment candidate, as well.
Florida Primary — January 29
Democrats: This rogue primary has been stripped of its delegates, but the candidates nevertheless remain on the ballot. Retirees in South Florida will probably go for Hillary by a wide margin, while the state's minority voters are a natural base for Obama. Hillary currently leads in the polls, but Obama isn't too far behind.
Hillary has built up a strong base of support with the state's Democratic establishment, while Obama has gone for the support minority voters as well as some white liberals, such as Congressman Robert Wexler.
Republicans: This state is one of Rudy Giuliani's last hopes, where he's spending heavily as part of his dubious big-state strategy. Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee is picking up evangelical support in northern Florida. Also, expect John McCain to pick up establishment GOP support. The polling here is divergent, giving leads to either Huckabee or Giuliani, while we have yet to see what the impact of McCain's post-New Hampshire boost will be.
While Giuliani has blanketed the state with TV ads, and Huckabee is courting evangelicals, Romney spent much of 2007 building support with the state party establishment, including many in the Cuban community as well as party officials close to Jeb Bush.
Maine Caucus - February 1 for the Republicans, February 10 for the Democrats.
Republicans: This one should go easily to John McCain. The campaigns haven't focused heavily here, and he has the support of both U.S. Senators.
Democrats: In all likelihood, the Democratic nomination will have been decided on Super Tuesday, five days earlier.
Super Tuesday — February 5
This is it, the day when both parties will likely pick their nominees if they haven't already.
Democrats: The primaries will be in Alabama, Alaska (caucus), American Samoa, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucus), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (caucus), Illinois, Kansas (caucus), Massachusetts, Minnesota (caucus), Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (caucus), New York, North Dakota (caucus), Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah. A total of 1,698 pledged delegates will be picked on this day. It's unlikely that one candidate will reach the goal on this day, but they could probably come so close that a victory is a foregone conclusion anyway, thus forcing the competition out.
Republicans: The primaries will be in Alabama, Alaska (caucus), Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucus), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota (caucus), Missouri, Montana (caucus), New Jersey, New York, North Dakota (caucus), Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia (state party convention).
For the Republicans, many of these primaries are winner-take-all, instead of awarding delegates by proportional representation or at the district level. As such, if one candidate does especially well this day, he'll take a huge portion of the delegates and possibly even the nomination itself.
I know, I know, we're in an all-fired hurry to narrow it down to 2 candidates on the Democratic side.
Still, if you're going to report Obama and Hillary in a statistical tie in Nevada, isn't it also worth a mention that EDWARDS is also in a statistical tie with Hillary as of today's poll. It's the same poll:
Obama 32%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 27% ...
January 14, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I actually can't foresee a scenario where Obama or Clinton gets close enough to victory on the 5th for the other to stop competing. I think the Democratic race is going to be hard-fought all the way to the end, with an incredibly slim margin of victory for whichever one of them comes out on top.
January 14, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who edits these posts?
;-p
January 14, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg and Eric- Sorry guys, this is junk analysis. The only poll you site on Nevada completely contradicts your line about Edwards pulling out of Nevada, where he's campaigning for three days.
Then your line about the Democratic nomination being decided by the time Maine caucuses on 2/10. That's less likely by the day, I doubt either Hillary or Obama get a majority of delegates on Super Tuesday. All three candidates are pledged to go on, and are preparing to do so.
January 14, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there a website that allows us to calculate delegate totals on the Dem side based on our expectations for Feb 5? I know, it's not an exact science due to threshold issues, party rules, etc but I'd love to be able to plug in my guess for who wins each state, with a percentage, and see how that plays in terms of delegates won by Feb 5.
I just don't think this will be a done deal until March.
January 14, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Incidentally, can anyone explain what Kucinich is doing campaigning in Michigan? I thought he'd tried to get his name off the ballot but filed the wrong form. Now I see he's been there for several days.
January 14, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Following this same logic, isn't every state a "must win" for Hillary Clinton, because women are expected to make up roughly half of the Dem electorate anywhere you go?
January 14, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with the porn spammer on this one.
January 14, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This morning I got a push poll call. I'm a Dem in a liberal ZIP Code. Apparently, it was from ""Common Sense Issues," the parent group of Trust Huckabee." The text of my call matches that reported by The Politico. I was surprised that the call did not have a closing notice of responsibility as I would think is required. That's two push polls for Huckabee and one from Mitt. I wonder if I'll hear from McCain before the polls open tomorrow.
January 14, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with a previous commenter - this post is somewhat lacking in the substance department.
January 14, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has built the most extensive nationwide grassroots organization ever.
In CD8 (SF), we will have all 474 precincts covered by captains using VoteBuilder
Hillary Clinton will not be able to claim 50%+1 of the delegates through 2/5 and from that point on, she will either collapse or be left with a brokered convention in which she attempts to seat the Florida/Michigan delegations that she's pocketed as insurance.
This is part of the 2/5 primary scam her Machine worked up to silence any opposition
January 14, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please add Washington State:
Caucus - Feb. 9
Primary - Feb. 19
Republicans choose half their delegates from caucus, half from primary.
Democrats choose all their delegates from caucus.
January 14, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
To me it looks like Obama is going to have to do really well in the South, Midwest, and western states on Super Duper Tuesday or Hillary will win fairly easily. She will likely win New York and New Jersey and they have a lot of delegates between them. If she takes California with all of its delegates that will make it very hard for Obama to come out on top. So he needs to really focus on California after South Carolina.
January 14, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's the source for South Carolina being 10% Mormon? Having been a Mormon, and living next door in North Carolina, that doesn't sound right. Did someone move the decimal point to the right?
January 14, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that you misread. The claim was that NV, not SC, is 10% Mormon. I do not know the source for that claim, but given that NV borders UT, I do not find the claim at all improbable.
January 14, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wildguess
If she takes California with all of its delegates that will make it very hard for Obama to come out on top. So he needs to really focus on California after South Carolina.
Delegates are awarded by congressional district. Those districts which have historically given the largest votes to Democrats are given preference in the number of delegates they send
Delegates are awarded proportionately by Congressional district to candidates winning more than 15% of the vote
For example: CD8, my district, goes Democratic by a higher percentage than any other in the state (I think) We get 5 delegates. If Obama gets 55% of the vote, Hillary (35%), Edwards Biden et al (10%), then Obama will get 3 votes, Hillary 1 or 2.
The formula itself is impossible to explain in any greater detail but the fact is that Hillary Clinton will not "take California"
January 14, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
A look at whats to come: the Clintons lash out at Obama like wounded animal, with increasingly ferocity with each loss. Expect Clintons (and surrogates) to do and say anything to get ahead.
January 14, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's bad enough that the Traditional Media ignores Edwards. Must you, too? He is in a dead heat in Nevada.
I expect better from you guys!
January 14, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
The secularists would decimate a Huckabee GOP candidate (the "Christian homophobic Leader") in the general election. Huck is the DNC’s favorite candidate, they have not issued a negative press release on him in 9 months. Mitt is the DNC’s nightmare; the DNC has issued 99 press releases on Mitt. McCain’s the favorite of the Trial Lawyers’ lobby.
Mitt Romney has the right qualifications (the only one with non-governmental (Bain, Olympics) leadership experience, a deep-seated faith, a vision for this country's future, and an exemplary personal and family life.
Mitt has the organizational skills to run a campaign in the general election and run the country. Huck, McCain, Hillary or Obama have never even run a lemonade stand. Mitt would appeal to the Independents and some Democrats for his unique qualifications to lead our country.
January 14, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
IF ANYONE IS RACIST IT IS OBAMA. GO TO
TUCC.ORG THAT IS OBAMA CHURCH WEB SITE.
READ THEIR BLACK VALUE SYSTEM. IF SHE HAD
THAT ON HER CHURCH WEB SITE THEY WOULD
DIE. OH AND BY THE WAY HE IS AGIST.
January 14, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Puh-lease Denise. That is simply uncalled for. Who gives a crap about churches anyway? We're talking about state and national politics. Please attempt, per the US Constitution, to separate church and state. thankyoucomeagain.
January 14, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
my ears hurt
January 14, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mitt Romney is such a shmuck he makes W. look like a straight talker. How many pairs of flip-flops does Mitt own? And I don't care about his whacky religious beliefs (see: South Park - All About Mormons). If by qualifications you mean $$$, then maybe Mike Bloomberg will be your man. Nail #3 for Mitt's coffin comes in Michigan tomorrow. Hell, even his dad's own Lt. Gov. has called him out. See ya.
January 14, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those who just must look ahead...run your roadmaps to March
Specifically to Texas where I suspect Mrs Clinton will do well among democrats even though she is wildly unpopular in the state as a whole
January 14, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
FYI, Minnesota is by caucus too.
January 14, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
This sounds very much like the junk media analyses that were so very dead wrong about New Hampshire. What's your point here?
January 14, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which of the 2/5 primaries are fully or partially open?
In California, "decline to states" can request a Democratic ballot but not a republican one. The GOP primary is CLOSED to all but Republicans
This is a very important item of info missing from Sgt Kleefeld's otherwise mediocre "analysis"
January 14, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kansas is a caucus, not a primary.
January 14, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
In this Dem Mich. home, got prerecorded McCain call last week, the dreaded mysterious Huckabee pushpoll Saturday, and just a couple hours ago, a pushpoll from who knows who (no caller ID info) that said Democrats can only vote Republican Tuesday. It asked me to press 1 for McCain, 2 for Romney, 3 for... and it hung up on me when I just pressed higher numbers repeatedly.
Me, I'll vote "uncommitted."
January 14, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I get this sick feeling as the crystal ball gets clearer and clearer.
McCain-Clinton is not the race the democrats want. An energized base for the GOP and a candidate that has huge appeal to independents. And McCain is well vetted so no surprises. There is little in voting record to separate them. Add that a large part of HRCs base doesn't like her, all of the sudden we have a horse race in a cycle that was supposed to be a walkover.
January 14, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I too have grown frustrated by the wholesale disregard by the media of the Edwards campaign. I'm voting for him. I'll write him in if I have to. Even though he did well in NH, all the emphasis was on HC and BO. This is still an open race. We needn't follow the lead of the Murdoch empire to choose Democratic candidates.
January 14, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
January 14, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Politico wrote on January 14, 2008 1:58 PM:
currently you can find graphic representations (charts) at the wikipedia entry for opinion polling for the dem primary that track according to distribution of delegates HERE but i don't know how accurate or current it is.
i find it baffling that that sort of thing is so hard to find since it is the only way that the primary race ought to be reported. the way everyone reports the primaries would be like only tracking the popular vote in the general election and paying almost no attention at all to who wins what state or how many electoral votes. the result is you have folks who imagine that each state's primary/caucus is winner-take-all.
January 14, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
January 14, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Six New Obama Offices Open in Colorado
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/sarahramey/CVQY
SFCA office opens this week...17 in CA and counting
January 14, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
What the Porn Spammer said!!!!
No, really, leaving Edwards out of your Nevada calculation seems intentional.
And I'd like to see TPM get ahead of this Super Tuesday game by looking forward to Ohio, Texas, and yes, even Pennsylvania. I'm starting to think that these three states (especially OH and PA) are where the Democratic primary will be most bitterly fought.
This election is really starting to suck. To think, January 3rd was so uplifting, with Obama and Edwards, and it's just been a huge plate of suck ever since. :-(
January 14, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
JenJen, I completely empathize. In 2004, as a Clark supporter, I watched as he lost primary after primary and then finally won Oklahoma and eventually dropped out.
However, that disappointment pales now in comparison to the disappointment earlier this year when he chose not to run and turned his securingamerica site into an auxilliary Hillary Clinton website.
I guess what I'm trying to say is there will be another hideous disappointment around the corner if we don't find a way to come together soon.
January 14, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Make peace, not war!
January 14, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I, too object to your zeal to make this a two-person race and ignore Edwards.
I want to know Edwards' numbers, too. I add Edwards' percentage to Obama's percentage to come up with the Anti-Hillary vote. Then I wonder if the Dems are dumb enough to nominate her if she can't get half of the Dem vote -- she's shure not going to get much from Repugs and Independants. I'm also getting kind of sick of her proxies attacking Obama. Manipulative girlfriends cry, presidents don't.
January 14, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feinstein Protege Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) Endorses Obama
January 14, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGdm
January 14, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
None of the DEM caucuses and primaries are winner take-all. Every race Edwards is in results in him collecting delegates.
Considering that after three contests there is only a eight delegate spread between him and the front runner . . . Edwards is likely to pull 25% of the delegates at the convention just by hanging in there.
Life will suck big-time for the idiot who shits on Edwards in the long run. It is sad that Edwards' roll in the Primary Season may end up being to pick the Republican-Light that runs as the Democratic Nominee.
January 14, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Politico (1:58 PM),
It's not interactive, but I have a list of the primaries/caucuses by date, state, party and possible delegates all the way to the end in June at Wghisky Tango foxtrot - over.
It shouldn't be too difficult to take that data and put it on a spreadsheet with the candidates for the nomination for each party and each state to get what you were looking for.
Sorry, my web programming doesn't go as far as making this into an interactive system - yet. I think that's in intermediate web programming, and I haven't gotten that far yet.
January 14, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anybody else think the "Iron my shirt" man was a Clinton plant? The only way it makes sense to me is if Hillary was looking for a way to mobilize the feminist vote and staged it. Certainly it had no chance of embarrasing her or anything else. It only makes sense as a bit of play acting to get press and dupe feminists in to supporting Hillary out of anger.
January 15, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've seen little here about this big Romney gaffe.
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/mitt_romney_defends_himself?utm_source=videomrss
January 15, 2008 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
On Feb 5 you mention the Dem primaries and caucuses without mentioing the Global Primary that will take place in 34 countries around thw world for Democrats Abroad. Between 5 qans 12 February voters can vote by internet, fax, snail mail or at 80+ voting centers around the world. Democrats Abroad will elect 22 delegates to the Denver convention. If American Somoa is listed, why not Democrats Abroad?
January 15, 2008 5:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
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