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Source: No GOP Candidate Is On The Air In Any Feb. 5th State
A Democratic source who tracks media buys tells me something interesting that reflects how bad the environment is for Repubs this year: He says that no GOP candidate has a single ad up on the air in any of the Feb. 5th states, even though Super Tuesday is a week away.
He also provides a good explanation for the Mittmentum we've been seeing. According to the source, Mitt spent roughly $1.5 million on TV ads during the week ending January 25, while both John McCain and Rudy spent roughly $800,000 apiece.
This suggests that Romney might be succeeding partly because he's doubled the ad spending of McCain.
Anyway, I've got calls into the campaigns to confirm this. We'll keep you posted.
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We'll see about this 'Mittmentum' you speak of. That goofball had better drive a stake through Saint John's heart today, or we are doomed, if Hillary is our nominee. I gotta say, Greg, this 'bad year for the GOP stuff' doesn't set well with me. Yeah, they have some clowns, and troubles, but you KNOW a Hillary-McCain matchup is dire trouble, because at the end of the day, most people hate her and like him. And I have no faith whatsoever that our beloved party will tie that old sack of shit to Bush, as we should, every day in every way. That sweaty hug picture would be in every ad and billboard in the country. But given our track record, some consultant somwehere will think it's too 'mean' or something.
January 29, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
My ignorance is probably showing with this comment but:
Doesn't this show how important FL is in wrapping up the nomination? Why spend in those states when it's pretty much settled in FL? Just a thought. Carry on.
January 29, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Florida's 185 delegates were still in play for the Dems, I bet you'd see a lot fewer of their ads in Super Tuesday states, too.
January 29, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
McQuaid’s Union Leader minces no words in slamming Clinton’s post-pledge campaigning efforts in Florida today:
COURTING VOTERS in Iowa and New Hampshire, last August Sen. Hillary Clinton signed a pledge not to “campaign or participate” in the Michigan or Florida Democratic primaries. She participated in both primaries and is campaigning in Florida. Which proves, again, that Hillary Clinton is a liar…
Clinton coldly and knowingly LIED to New Hampshire and Iowa. Her promise was not a vague statement. It was a signed pledge with a clear and unequivocal meaning…
New Hampshire voters, you were played for suckers.
January 29, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm...I'm in Minnesota - we caucus Feb 5 - and just saw a Huckabee ad last night.
January 29, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saw a Huckabee ad in Mass, of all places, yesterday
go Huck, go
January 29, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huck was here in California as well yesterday.
January 29, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Saw a Ron Paul TV ad last night in Arkansas, and heard a radio ad for him this morning. Heard someone say they saw a Huckster TV ad last night as well.
January 29, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Might one possible explanation be that the Repubs are saving their money for the general election?
"Who cares who wins as long as they can beat Obama/Clinton/Edwards" etc.
January 29, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You may want to have your "democratic source" check out ronpaul2008.com, the official campaign site for republican candidate Ron Paul. A press release yesterday, Jan. 28, by the campaign anounced the running of a new ad in both Tennessee and Arkansas, which, last time I checked were two of the states that are having primaries on Super Tuesday.
January 29, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've hear several Ron Paul radio ads on one of the local all-news stations here in Los Angeles for a couple of weeks. Apparently he wants to stop welfare benefits for illegal immigrants, something I thought was already not allowed.
The TV ad I've seen is a Hillary ad, though I've gotten about 3 Obama mail pieces reminding me to mail in my absentee ballot.
January 29, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ron Paul is also running radio ads here in San Francisco. So change the story to read, "No *viable* GOP candidate has a single ad..."
January 29, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barring a Macaca moment, McCain has this thing in the bag. Now watch the dems commit political suicide by putting Clinton up against McCain. They never cease to disappoint, which is why I changed my party affiliation last November to unaffiliated.
January 29, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your party affiliation matters less than your voting tendencies. I was registered as 'independent or unaffiliated' for most of my nearly 40 year voting life, but I voted reliably Democratic, especially in federal elections. The only difference is that unaffiliated puts you into a 'what will he do' classification.
January 29, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope that changing my affiliation registers, in some minuscule way, my disgust with the impotence of the Democratic Party. For the first time, I am seriously considering voting for a 3rd party or staying home.
Why did you switch from unaffiliated to Dem?
January 29, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have not personally seen it, but I have been told that Huckabee has run ads here in Oklahoma as well. This would seem a very logical state in which to put his resources, so that doesn't surprise me.
January 29, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink