It's worth noting that for all we hear about Obama's superiority as a general election candidate, he's not polling so well in Florida. The Democrats cannot afford to be uncompetitive there, and Obama's failure to move in the polls there doesn't bode well.

Of course he hasn't campaigned their either. This latest Clinton move should earn Obama some more endorsements from party eminences.

The Democrats cannot afford to be uncompetitive there, and Obama's failure to move in the polls there doesn't bode well.

1) Nobody has campaigned there, so of course his numbers have not moved.

2) Whether or not we can afford to be uncompetitive there, we will be. We are not going to win Florida this time around, regardless of whether we nominate Clinton or Obama. If we are building a strategy around winning FL we are setting ourselves up to lose.

Zero chance Hillary wins Florida in a general election. She'll lose FL and the entire south, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, and Colorado. She can hang onto CA and NY, but zero chance she'll win Texas.

In a nutshell, she ain't got the electoral votes. People, wake up!

Gred D writes

We are not going to win Florida this time around, regardless of whether we nominate Clinton or Obama. If we are building a strategy around winning FL we are setting ourselves up to lose

Why not? Because of the delegate issue? Have you seen polls about that? I wonder if it's that big an issue. Though it would help things if Clinton didn't choose to fan the flames.

Hillary has also not campaigned there and Obama now has the same name recognition. Why is she polling much higher than him? Because she is a more electable candidate and simply a better candidate than him.

By the by, bad move by Obama rejecting the seating of Michigan and Florida delegations.

The headlines in the local newspapers will not be kind to him.

"Obama rejects Clinton's olive branch to Michigan, Florida"

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080125/POLITICS01/801250437/1409/METRO

My guess is that the Clintons know of some endorsements going against them after SC.

No other reason for this kind brinksmanship. They are really risking a serious schism in the party and my guess is they know Kennedy, Boxer, and some others are coming out for Obama and want to win Florida to keep that from dominating the news.

Either that or they're just drunk.

Have you Obama people ever voted before? I have never seen so many dumbass comments. FIrst, There has never been any doubt about the Florida and Michigan delegates being seated. Second, Obama is in fact running commercials in Florida in violation of the voluntary pledge. Third, if they were supposed to get off the ballot, why didn't they do it in Florida. Obama also campaigned for his Michigan supporters to vote uncommitted and then promptly took credit for all the uncommitted. Fourth, Obama tried to claim a win in Nevada due to delegates instead of votes, conveniently forgettig that he and Hillary tied in delegates in Iowa, his big conquest. Sheesh!

Another FRAUD FROM FLORIDA

Bill Nelson is the most feeble minded demo in the Senate

Why he is dumb enough to believe that Democrats won't recognize bullshit when they see it

STOP THEIVES

Democrats take back your party from Florida's Hacks

Bill Nelson is as corrupt as they come and dumber than a sack of hammers

Third, if they were supposed to get off the ballot, why didn't they do it in Florida.

MI law allows a candidate to take his/her name off the ballot. Florida law does not. Once you file papers in Florida, you are on the ballot until you drop out of the race altogether.

Fourth, Obama tried to claim a win in Nevada due to delegates instead of votes, conveniently forgettig that he and Hillary tied in delegates in Iowa

Not quite. He got one more delegate than she did from Iowa.

What is up with Clinton? It seems to be getting worse and worse. I've gone from being a tepid Obama supporter to thinking about volunteering for him, not b/c I like Obama more but b/c I like Clinton less and less with every new self-serving ploy.

I originally took Obama's "say anything do anything" comment as political spin (effective spin, but spin nonetheless). But I've started taking it to heart. It's also my impression that there are a lot more anti-Clinton comments at TPM than there used to be. Not just from the Clinton-hating troglodytes, but from the more thoughtful and intelligent commenters as well. Maybe it's just my perception.

I bet Clinton has some internals that show she probably won't have enough delegates, absent Florida and Michigan, to win outright on the first ballot at the convention. I think Clinton anticipates some sort of brokered convention.

Greg DeLassus wrote on January 25, 2008 6:38 PM: MI law allows a candidate to take his/her name off the ballot. Florida law does not. Once you file papers in Florida, you are on the ballot until you drop out of the race altogether.

Thats not true greg, in both states they took there names off the ballot, but in florida the republicans, who hold majority in both chambers and the govenors office voted to put them back on by law. The clinton supporters along with the republicans tried to do the same thing in michigan, they won the vote, but failed to get 2/3 majority for immediate effect. I say seat the delegates w/o voting rights for the two states, because i may be one of them lol. The joke here is that the michigan delegations reservations will be at the local KOA campground.

I have some optimism that Clinton could take Arkansas.

I pass through Arkansas several times a year when my wife and I drive down to Memphis from St Louis. My impression from talking to folks at gas stations, reading bumper stickers, observing the vandalism of the "Birthplace of Pres Clinton" signs, etc is that if Hillary Clinton can win Arkansas then she will need only one more miracle to qualify for canonization as a saint.

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/01/25/mark-penn-argues-for-a-third-bill-clinton-term.aspx

Sheesh - why don't you lefty blogs just come out and endorse Obama in big headlines? What IS it that you so adore about the man? Not to get on a Hillary soap box, but she demonstrates time and time again how superior she is to him in matters of domestic and foreign policy. She makes him look like an adolescent just starting his career. If Hillary is the nominee, are you going to continue your campaign against her? It's going to be interesting to watch you, Arianna, Avarosis, Kos and the rest come off (or not) your petulant and irritating ivory towers to deal with the general election.

Florida ballots are approved by the legislature. Once you are on, you can't get off. Once they are approved, you can't get on, either. Long-shot Gary Hart wasn't on the ballot in 1984, but former governor Reuben Askew was. By the time of the Florida primary, Hart was was momentum-filled superstar and Askew had dropped out. If you wanted to vote for Hart, you had to actually vote for Askew, whose delegate slate went to Hart. It was a confusing mess.

does anyone SERIOUSLY believe that Hillary's push to include Florida's delegates against the wishes of the DNC and the endorsement later that day by the Democratic Senator from Florida are totally unrelated?

... really?

You really think a Democrat can't win Florida with it's big hispanic vote after all the anti-immigration stuff coming out of the Republicans for the last year? There aren't that many Cubans in Florida to save that vote.

Genghis- I'm no Hillary supporter and it could not be more obvious that this site endorses Obama. An endorsement does not mean you can never say anything positive about the other candidate. This site avoids all the negative Obama press out there nearly 100% of the time. These little ones here and there try to make them appear honest, very Fox news.

Josh Marshall's right

The Democratic Party doesn't have enough lipstick for this pig

After Mark Penn's conference call today, the Nation slammed the Clinton's for Their Reagan problem

The Clintons' Reagan Problem

Now they have a Bush2000 Florida problem

nelson is a panty waist:Now Josh if you have BALLS let 's go the the mat son.How do you want to play with dolls or men things.

That's the stupidest thing I've read on the internet today. I hope you're being a provocateur, or trolling or something.

I wonder how Obama will attempt to parse that 4.1M registered Democrats don't get a vote in choosing the nominee?

The Clintons parse. It is time to tell Floridians and the nation what they need to hear not what the Clintons think they want to hear.

Bluntly I should think he'd call a spade a spade.

KISS
Perhaps like this?

"Whether it is Barack Obama's record, her position on Social Security, or even the meaning of the Florida primary, it seems like Hillary Clinton will do or say anything to win an election," David Plouffe

The feckless Hacks of the Democratic party are fighting for their Beltway turf

Get out of the way

bobbysam wrote on January 25, 2008 7:17 PM:

What IS it that you so adore about the man?

What his last name is.

Or rather, is not.

I didn't expect the sleazebags to move so quickly though. Most unseemly.

I rather expected that the Clintons would make a move to overturn the DNC's decision with their superdelegates sometime after the primaries were done

But for some reason, they decided to move the plan ahead a few months.

I guess I've become so used to being bamboozled into supporting these two that my eye is not as keen as it would be, say with the Bushes.

Here’s the story from last September when Obama campaigned in Florida and “hinted” that he would seat the delegates:

http://www.tboblogs.com/index.php/news/story/obama-hints-hed-seat-florida-delegation/

Obama Hints He’d Seat Florida Delegation

Posted Sep 30, 2007 by William March
Updated Sep 30, 2007 at 11:28 PM

Barack Obama hinted during a Tampa fundraiser Sunday that if he’s the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, he’ll seat a Florida delegation at the party’s national convention, despite national party sanctions prohibiting it.

He didn’t say it outright, but came close, according to local Obama campaign leaders Frank Sanchez and Tom Scarritt, both involved in organizing the fundraiser.

Obama was asked during the event about making sure Floridians have a role in the nomination, despite the DNC sanctions and the pledge. He responded “do what’s right by Florida voters,” Scarritt said.

to: It's the Surname, Stupid!

What BS. What's in a name? HRC mops the floor with the guy every time they're seen together. He's like Bobby Kennedy without the portfolio and without a plan. The NYT has it right about Obama. He's not ready for prime time. And pls spare me any return notes.

Who-wars o' da feather . . . Do WHAT?!? together . . .

i think the DNC and the whole party is way off base .......caucus and proportioned delegates instead of winner take all states prolong the primary season and cause a lot of tension in the party....in 1980 the candidates beat on each other so much they were wounded and reagan won the election.....in this election with one winning the pop vote and only getting a portion of the delagtes will keep these 3 pounding each other possibly til may or june and in a year when a potted plant can beat the GOP..we could possibly end up losing because of this stupid DNC decision to strip delegates.....its not helping the party or the candidates or for that matter the voters ....obama wins iowa and is only 1 delegate up......hillary wins NH and the D's are tied ....she wins nevada obama get one more D....this is stupid....he wins SC and wont gain anything ......that means they have to get meaner and meaner to try to separate themselves abd all we do is give the GOP ammo to beat either one of them

Genghis- I'm no Hillary supporter and it could not be more obvious that this site endorses Obama. An endorsement does not mean you can never say anything positive about the other candidate. This site avoids all the negative Obama press out there nearly 100% of the time. These little ones here and there try to make them appear honest, very Fox news.

I've been a reader for some time now, and I would estimate that the readers break into roughly equal camps with about half calling the site biased towards Clinton and half calling the site biased towards Obama. Shockingly, the Obama supporters think that the bias is towards Clinton, and the Clinton supporters think that that bias is towards Obama. Go figure. The only ones who seem to speak with any justice are the Edwards supporters, but then again, no one takes Edwards seriously as a candidate.

The interesting thing about attributing bias is how easy it is to point out articles critical of your candidate as the rule and to dismiss articles against your candidate as the exception. There is no contentious issue that I know of on which both sides aren't going bonkers accusing the press of bias for the other side. Israel - Palestine. Iraq hawk - Irak dove. Democrat - Republican. Clinton Obama. You name it. The only constant is that the supporters of each side see media bias towards the other side.

Frankly, I just wish everybody who cares about such things would think to themselves, "Hey, maybe I'm the biased one. Perhaps it's because I have strong feelings that I think others are biased against my candidate when they don't share my enthusiasm."

Whatever. No one's going to get this unless they already feel the same way.

PS If any candidate has a legitimate beef with TPM, it's Giuliani, who gets lampooned almost daily. How humiliating it must be for the greatest American hero of 9/11 to be tossed aside in favor of a mere Olympics organizer, the only candidate who Josh has truly embraced.

Michigan-Florida delegates don't matter

Obama and Edwards should register their objection to the delegates coming out of the Michigan and Florida primaries, and that should be that. The only way they'd be seated is if Hillary gets a majority of the 4045 remaining delegates (excluding those two).

If Obama has a majority of the 4045, he would logically be generous and allow the Clintonites of the two states (the notable ones like Ben Nelson, Debbie Stabenow) a fair share of the actual seats in the final delegation, just making sure that doing so will not upset the majority he would bring to Denver.

Nelson has been a Bush democrat for a long time. The Republican Legislature of Florida knew very well that moving the primary would be a problem for the Democrats of Florida. The result is ONLY republicans are appearing and speaking in Florida!

What a great thing for ... the republicans.

BTW - Karen Thurman - head of the Florida Democratic Party works, (part) Time for the head of the Florida Republican Party.

So Florida dems are reassured that despite lawsuits, and dem candidates, are forbidden to even campaign in Florida... but we've been assured, that we still have GOOD RELATIONS with the National Party, despite lawsuits and pissing matches and candidates who are banned.

They also assure us that the candidates will insist on seating our delegates... It's been a canned result prepared by the party hacks... to back the candidate of CORPORATE DEMS - Ms Hilary supporter of WAR, WAR and MORE WAR.

Edwards got my vote - yesterday so I can do Get-Out-the-VOTE activity Mon & Tues

GO Sen Edwards - who noticed before last week the economic devastation visited upon these great people... the working poor of America

I hope all you Hillary supporters die in a fire.

Hillary's campaign has been shockingly depressing. Not herself, so much, but Bill and some of the others carrying water (I was a Bill Clinton supporter during his presidency and post-presidency, but I think he's been too "partisan" in the primaries, for an ex-President. Seemliness does count for something).

Really, it's the narcissim of Hillary's campaign.

We've had 7 years of failed right wing leadership. Not just failed, but catastrophically failed, Titanic into thte ice berg failed leadership.

In my view the general election should be a lock for us, with huge gains in the Congress.

But here comes Hillary, to fuck that up. To run the EXACT campaign that plays right into the hands of the demonzing Republicans. To use name recognition among less hyper-aware voters (after all, working Americans don't have time to follow most of this crap) to gather votes, to distort her enemies (for she's playing an enemies game atm, make no mistake) comments and positions to smear them.

I don't mind her doing this in the general. The Republicans deserve it in spades. But bringing this game to the primaries, to an honrable Obama campaign (and she'd do it against Edwards if he was in it) is like school in the summer:

No Class.

I'll support and vote for her if she wins the nomination.

But I'm hoping for our country's sake, and morever for the world's sake, she'll fail. The past month has made the prospect of Hillary effectively governing this nation a pipe dream.

Typical timing for HRC. She'll probably schedule a victory party for Florida.

Greg D. wrote:

"I pass through Arkansas several times a year when my wife and I drive down to Memphis from St Louis. My impression from talking to folks at gas stations, reading bumper stickers, observing the vandalism of the "Birthplace of Pres Clinton" signs, etc is that if Hillary Clinton can win Arkansas then she will need only one more miracle to qualify for canonization as a saint."

ROTFL!!!! God bless you Greg, I needed a good belly laugh and you sure delivered!

I agree too, btw.

Not content with their privileged position giving their non-representative citizens more influence in selecting the President of the United States, Iowa and New Hampshire – with the connivance of Edwards and Obama -- pushed for and obtained the disenfranchisement of the voters of Michigan and Florida. That wrong needs to be righted.

For the record, the attempt to change the Iowa and New Hampshire lock on the primaries was ongoing back when Kerry and Gephardt were competing.
The pledge signed by all the candidates called for them not to 'campaign or participate.' Participate means to take part in. Once that pledge was signed Senator Clinton did nothing in Michigan. Edwards and Obama took part by removing their names -- in order to do so they had to participate in the bureaucratic procedures of Michigan. It required that they make a personally signed written request. That is participating.

In Florida, it appears that the names remain on the ballot regardless of the candidates's desire. Obama is showing ads that run in Florida. That is participating by campaigning. He thinks that because South Carolina says its okay he can break his pledge.

Basically, the voters of Michigan and Florida were disenfranchised by the DNC and that’s perfectly okay with Obama after he realized he couldn’t win the primaries in those states.

For the record, the attempt to change the Iowa and New Hampshire lock on the primaries was ongoing back when Kerry and Gephardt were competing. That the citizens of larger states deserve a voice in the selection of the President is a principled position that Senator Levin has held for a long time.

I have run a caucus site for the Democratic Party in Michigan. Turn out was minimal. In contrast, even without all the names on the ballot hundreds of thousands turned out to vote both for Clinton and for uncommitted the sole proxy that Edwards and Obama left for their supporters.
Despise the Michigan Democratic party for fighting this injustice if you will but the people who are disenfranchised are the ordinary voters of both Michigan and Florida.

Well I'll grant you one thing MarkF.
Sore LOSER Obama will undoubtedly be first to introduce a censure motion.
Just to prove his "progressive" bona fides...

I would be so angry if I lived in MI, I was denied a campaign, I was denied the name of my candidate on the ballot - and then someone is going to sweep in and save me and give me a voice?! What BS! MI and Fl voters were already disenfranchised and that cannot be changed.

HRC is inwardly focused - it is who she is. It's about her. Obama is outwardly focused - it's about the party, the voter and the country.

hi rg... I must say I admire your powers of divination.
You are undoubtedly wealthy from using your gift in the market, yes?
But really, do you BELIEVE the Obama hagiography?
Let me put it another way:
you know his story of how, in the State Senate, he mistakenly voted "yes" when he meant "no", over and over?
Do you believe him so stupid that after the first time he was unable to learn from and correct his carelessness?
Or do you believe it was a political ploy, allowing him, by later changing his vote, to pander to both sides of an issue?
So is he stupid or too clever a pol by half, hmmm?

And by the way, how come Obama is the only Dem to break his pledge to the DNC and advertise (heavily) in Florida?

Has the Yoo Hoo gone to your brain?

Don't think of disenfranchising our brothers and sisters in Florida. They have been disenfranchised before, and it has been painful to the whole country. And Florida and Ohio are the two most important states for the Democrats. We want Democrats in Florida to be motivated to fight for the Democrat candidate.

rg: The fans of Hillary Clinton are not going to be swayed. They've been waiting anxiously for this for a long, long time. She's got her base, and Edwards and Obama are fighting it out for the rest.

She could call Obama the "N" word and most of her supporters would find a way to excuse it.

Obama is the best and brightest politician America has seen in generations. And he has only slightly less experience that Bill Clinton had when he was elected president. None of that matters to Hillary's supporters. To them, Hillary will be their sweet revenge against the Republicans. It's not about her, and it never has been. It's about Bill.

Hi MarkF...
Well I'll take your political acumen as gold plated.
Please remind me, which national campaign do you manage?
I don't know of any HRC supporter telling you to vote for her just because they vote for Clinton but that mythical person would be as deranged as you obviously are. My sympathies to you both.
I do hope that your poor heart and head survive what I fully expect will be HRC's eight year presidency. I at least hope no one is near you if and when you actually explode.
Best to you for a full recovery.

"I do hope that your poor heart and head survive what I fully expect will be HRC's eight year presidency."

The Republicans will impeach her in three.

Hi again rg... so to be clear, you believe Obama's story about mistakenly voting yes when he meant no, and did this over and over and over.
If I grant your point, accept his excuse, then I have to conclude him to be, simply put, too stupid to be president. It is a tiny bit scary that you don't see that.
But I applaud your principled commitment; it is what we need much more of. I just don't see the principled part in Obama and the over the top worship of much of his support is a lot scary.
Best to you. Happily you will be able to celebrate a double digit victory in SC today I think. Forgive me for hoping it is the last.

MarkF... thank you for your solicitous concern for my welfare.
Sadly the insanity of your Hillary deranged posts means that I simply would not, could not trust your judgement.
I read huff post and the koskids. Like most sites they offer a range of passioned and impassioned opinions.
But as with TPM, I'm simply not convinced by the insane ravings of hatred for HRC. Seems so, what?, well Rethugican.
Sorry, but that's just me.

NoBoy:

"so to be clear, you believe Obama's story about mistakenly voting yes when he meant no, and did this over and over and over."

Where are you coming up with this idiotic garbage?

NoBoy, I'll give you some passion. Obama won by a wide margin in Iowa. He lost by very small margins in Nevada and New Hampshire. Up until a month or so ago, Hillary was the "clear" front-runner. The passion is NOT on her side. Even within the Democratic Party, she's been forced to fight like an animal for every single vote. If Bill wasn't out there helping her to double-team Obama, she wouldn't have a chance. And let's not hear any of this phony crap about how everyone's spouse is advocating for their partner. Neither Elizabeth Edwards nor Michelle Obama is a former president. Bill is a former president first and Hillary's spouse second.

Hillary?!? LIBERAL?!? JeeeeeZUS! You've got to be kidding. She's slightly to the left of her pal, Joe Lieberman. Give me a break!

Lest we forget:

"I've known Joe Lieberman for more than thirty years. I have been pleased to support him in his campaign for re-election, and hope that he is our party's nominee," the former first lady said in a statement issued by aides.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1150885919227

WATERBURY, Conn., July 24 -- Former president Bill Clinton joined a stage full of Connecticut officials Monday night in testifying to the Democratic credentials of Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, whose 18-year tenure is threatened by the primary challenge of antiwar insurgent Ned Lamont.

Clinton headed a rescue effort disguised as a rally in the refurbished Palace Theater in downtown Waterbury -- a city famous in Democratic lore as the site of a tumultuous 2 a.m. outdoor rally on the final night of the 1960 presidential campaign.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/24/AR2006072401064.html

HARTFORD, Conn. --Former President Bill Clinton is sticking up for U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman and his support of the Iraq war.

Clinton, who spoke at an Aspen Institute conference last week, questioned why Democrats in Connecticut are focusing on ousting a fellow Democrat, Lieberman.

Lieberman faces a stronger-than-expected Aug. 8 primary challenge by Greenwich millionaire businessman Ned Lamont, who has criticized Lieberman for his support of the war and his perceived closeness with Republicans and President Bush.

"If we allow our differences over what to do now in Iraq to divide us instead of focusing on replacing Republicans in Congress; that's the nuttiest strategy I ever heard in my life," Clinton told the nonprofit cultural organization.

http://boston.com/news/local/connecticut/articles/2006/07/14/bill_clinton_defends_liebermans_iraq_stance_1152922213/

"Here's a challenge:
Offer me a rational explanation for why Obama should be given a pass on advertising in Florida after promising not to. His challengers haven't felt that need nor been given that pass."

He made a national ad buy. According to Bill Burton, they asked both MSNBC and CNN to pull the ad from the Florida market and were told it wasn't possible. He may be lying--I can't possibly know. What I DO know is that Hillary was the ONLY Democrat to leave her name on the ticket in Michigan, and she COULD have controlled that.

"Obama's ads run on local stations here, not cnn and msnbc (well, that I've noticed)."

The Obama campaign has made no local ad buys in Florida.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/26/opinion/26herbert.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/26/opinion/26wills.html

The paper that endorsed Hillary (and the Iraq invasion) doesn't seem to be so sure after all...

It is easy to see how the thinking of other people has been corrupted to believe that winning whatever way you can is ok with them.

But it is much more difficult to recognize how you have violated your own principles unless someone points it out to you in such a way as to make you aware..without feeling attacked.

Such is the case with Hillary's campaign. We got used to it sometime around Don't Ask, Don't Tell..that double-standard theme for the weak-minded who refused to have the courage and follow through because of Bill's lack of principle. They (the neocon element of the Republican party) have always had blackmailing power over Bill.

Said here before, Florida's disenfranchisement of the Democratic electorate is a result of a Republican Legislature doing the president's brother's bidding, and making this schedule explicitly to prevent Florida's Democrats from participating in the choice of Democratic candidate.
Why the DNC fell for this, Dean fan that I am, is beyond me.
But from all the Dems I know down in Collier County, every time Hillary says the delegates should count, she gets more votes for next Tuesday.