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Rasmussen: Post-Kennedy Endorsement, Obama Only Down By Six In Massachusetts
A new Rasmussen poll in Massachusetts shows that Hillary Clinton is now barely ahead of Barack Obama, in the wake of the Ted Kennedy endorsement. Hillary leads with 43%, followed by Obama at 37% and the now-departed John Edwards with 11%.
Rasmussen did not have a previous poll of the Massachusetts primary. However, a SurveyUSA poll from last week, before Obama's political adoption by the Kennedy family, had Hillary ahead by a whopping 37 points. It looks like Massachusetts is officially a race now.
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Most of the samples were taken on or just after the T.K. endorsement.
This is highly misleading - The true poll results will be those coming on sat/sun.
January 30, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Things are too volatile at the moment for meaningful polls. With Edwards out, Obama's win in SC, Clinton's in Florida, and now the rush of endorsements to both remaining candidates, this poll is already outdated.
January 30, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that's what I call a bump.
January 30, 2008 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Still, pretty awesome movement no matter how you look at it. If Edwards backs Obama she is in big trouble. It is all the boost he needs, pre 2/5.
January 30, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are 2 things I want to address...
1) Why is McCain polling ahead of both Obama and Hillary now by about 6% when the same polling company was showing him less than a week ago polling behind both by 3-5%?
2) Was it me, or did McCain look smug, arrogant, condescending and immature in tonight's debate? I actually tended to like McCain in comparison to his rivals, but I was seriously disappointed by his cranky old man routine in the debate. I guess he won't be as hard to beat as I thought he would be.
January 30, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama still needs a couple of more good days to close the gap. His website doesn't have any events listed for tomorrow or Friday, but it does list something for Saturday. He's keeping his calendar clear. Is that because he knows he's got Richardson's endorsement and wants it to be a surprise, or is he keeping the date clear in case of a sudden need to fly to NM?
January 30, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Any way you slice it, Obama seems to be moving on Hillary nationwide. It's going to be close on 2/5.
January 30, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Brandon, I agree, McCain looked old and cranky. Huckabee looked most calm, like he could talk you into anything and sound very reasonable about it. I like Paul taking both McCain and Romney to task following their squabble. McCain really came across bad tonight.
January 30, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
The more you see Hillary, the more you want to back Obama.
Does anyone know why Hillary is appearing on FOX News trying to play the "coy" female?
January 30, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was going to be close on 2/5 before the Kennedy endorsement. The Clintons are trying to run out the clock as fast as they can before tuesday.
The most telling part of the poll is not how much Obama gained but how much Hillary lost. Her support was and remains very SOFT.
Many of Edwards' superdelagates are jumping on the Obama bandwagon quickly, perhaps to send a message to John...
January 30, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you assume that the SurveyUSA poll (Clinton +37) was a good indicator of where the race stood at that time and that the Rasmussen results (if they'd taken a poll during the same period) would have been similar, then Obama has made up A LOT of ground in a short timeframe.
A lot has occurred since then, but Obama is SURGING big time. He's erased a 20 to 30 point deficit in a matter of DAYS.
January 30, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
How can you compare two completely different polls and use the comparison to make a point about trends -- and do it all with a straight face?
I like Arianna's approach to polling: put them on the same page as horoscopes and weather forecasts.
January 30, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see it as misleading. Perhaps that 37 point spread was just way out there.
January 30, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
WHOAH.
Ok, he was behing by THIRTY SEVEN POINTS!! For MONTHS! That is a pretty incredible bump, and as someone in Mass who's been feeling pretty glum about those polls, that is amaaaazing news...He is going to be holding a rally here on Feb 4th, and honestly, I think people are still mulling over the Teddy endorsement, so that he may get even more support from it. So yes, I would say he has a really good chance to lose by only a few points OR even squeak out a WIN! Mass is supposed to be Hillary country so that would be devastating. Anyway, I am absolutely thrilled.
Isn't the race also getting tighter in New York, Hillary's other must-win state?
Meanwhile...in Illinois, Obama is ahead by 30 points.
January 30, 2008 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, what was with Hillary playing up "the snub"? on Fox. And Clinton supporters have the gall to whine about how the media is against her, when she plays into this completely media-driven crap. No integrity at all.
Oh, oh I put my hand out for Barack and he turned his back on meee!! Never mind that you were putting your hand out for TK. Good news with this poll.
January 30, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
not entirely sure i buy the results of this poll, but the greater point it indicates is important to note: nearly every poll in every state, as well as nationwide, shows significant upward momentum for Obama.
hopefully it'll keep climbing with the help of a few big endorsements over the weekend and he takes as many, or even slightly more, delegates on the 5th. that'd be just fine with me, i'm with him all the way and aren't even close to that donation limit.
at this point Obama's campaign is like the friendliest bookie ever, in that they receive a chunk of my monthly paycheck promptly. i, and the vast majority of the other 500,000 Obama donors, can keep giving. can Clinton's people? it doesn't seem like it.
January 30, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Hillary disgusts me with that playing the media "snub" game, seriously, how petty and low. Not to mention it is all a flat out lie. You never put out your hand for him, you were going to Ted Kennedy, not Obama, shut up, this is why people hate you.
January 30, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news for Clinton though, is that her support is stronger:
"Clinton’s support is more solid at this time than Obama’s. Among those who say they’d vote for the former First Lady, 74% are “certain” they won’t change their mind. Just 62% of Obama supporters are that certain."
You have to wonder how much of this is just hype that typically comes with endorsements. How much will fall off?
January 30, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did I hear correctly that Edwards said he would not be endorsing anyone before Tuesday?
January 30, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is definitely moving and has been moving for the past month. The question is whether he's moving fast enough for Feb 5th.
Voter exposure has been generally been good for Obama, who has been fighting Clinton's name recognition and familiarity to voters from the getgo. In every primary (except FL, where he didn't campaign), he's been able to close the gap rapidly in the weeks preceding the vote.
Super tuesday, however, is a much bigger challenge because the number of voters is several times the number of voters in all the previous primaries combined. That's a lot of people to reach in a very short amount of time.
Let's hope that he does well in the debate tomorrow b/c there will be many more watchers choosing who to vote for than in previous debates.
January 30, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
What everyone else said:
-This was a one-night survey, and they aren't accurate. That's why most polls take place over several days.
--This was right after a big event (Ted's endorsement). That skews the poll results. The true measure of public opinion is a few days later.
--This is a different company from the previous poll using different methodology and sample size.
Of course, one would expect tightening from a 37 point in Mass. after a Kennedy endorsement. The movement in his direction has to be encouraging for Obama. But it has to be encouraging to Hillary that, even post endorsement and SC, she still has a comfortable lead.
January 30, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
jose writes
jose, I think that this is an excellent metaphor. Obama's popularity growth has been such that with enough time, he would easily surpass her. But there's not much time left. At least he's got the ball and is moving down the field.
January 30, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think the Clintons are going to get too much mileage out of "the snub".
The real issues are:
(1)How will voters process the FL results?
(2)Will JE endorse Obama and when? (I can't believe for a moment that he'd endorse Hillary).
(3)Richardson is going to endorse someone by the end of the week. Who will he choose?
January 30, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I can't believe for a moment that he'd endorse Hillary"
Of course he would. He knows that, even if he endorses Obama this week, she's very likely going to be the overall winner next Tuesday. The numbers are just there for her in too many states--especially the big ones. Unless she just falls on her face on Thursday, she's going to come out of that debate with enough momentum to hold back Obama and win the day. From there, it's only a matter of time. Edwards is smart enough to see this fact, and he's ambitious enough to want to ride the winning horse.
So, do you endorse Obama and watch him lose narrowly next week--and lose your own political clout in the process? Or do you endorse Hillary and when she wins, claim some of the credit--increasing your own capital and clout? The answer is to endorse Hillary. I predict he waits until after Thursday (to make sure she does OK in the debate) and then pulls the trigger on Friday with an endorsement.
January 30, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tuesday is a lifetime away. A trillion things could happen between now and then. If Clinton's plan is to run out the clock, she's making a big mistake. You have to seize it.
January 30, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joyce, you are a disgrace to women. If HRC is on Fox why do you assume it is to be coy. Just vote for Obama and go away
January 30, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to be a hater, but...
Ralph Nader, what the hell do you think you are doing?! Haven't the last 8 years been a sobering testimony to the dangers of giving in to your egoism? Did it feel good knowing the harm you caused our country in 2000? And don't anyone try to lay it all on the Supreme 9 because it would not have been up to them if Ralphie had just stayed out of it.
Start a PAC, take out ads, get the message out there and try to frame the debate, but get over yourself. In 2000 we got a president who was hell-bent on invading Iraq because of you, and in 2008 we could get a president hell-bent on invading Iran because of you. Enough!!
OK, it's out of my system... for now.
January 30, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
HRC is not trying to play the snub incident the media is, what's wrong with you people. You can be for Obama without embarrasing yourselves.
January 30, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is by far the best candidate. Based on his background, leadership abilities, and policy positions he has my vote. He is also the cleanest candidate in my opinion. I just found this website that shows Hillary has way too many skeletons that will come up again if she is the nominee. Obama is relatively clean and honest when he makes a mistake.
www.realchange.org
This is not a site that supports Obama. I, however, do!
January 30, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama had another month he'd roll Hillary up and smoke her. Or snort her.
January 30, 2008 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man all these "she will crush him on 2/5" people are all of a sudden saying that you cant trust the polls. Still, I admit I won't get my hopes up yet, there's still ground to make. But it's looking closer, and I have a feeling that Obama still has an "ace up his sleeve." (Gore? Edwards? Richardson?)
January 30, 2008 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course he would. He knows that, even if he endorses Obama this week, she's very likely going to be the overall winner next Tuesday.
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i think the commenter is assuming Edwards has even a sizable percentage of the substance and conviction to his causes he's based his campaign around for 11 months.
if he does, the natural pick is Obama, and soon. if he doesn't, and just wants to be on the winning team to finagle a shot at an office, the natural pick is Clinton.
January 30, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the psot-Edwards departure polls will show a deadheat, pretty much everywhere but the SouthWest.
Hillary is following the same trajectory as her GOP colleague from New York whi just departed the campaign today. Basically she was riding the wave of national name recognition, and popularity among a core group of voters, that once the people began to focus on the campaign, was set aside as the voters looked to see who they really wanted as their party's standard bearer in November. The velocity of Rudy's collapse was greater, but the end points will be the same. Hillary has steadily been losing support among almost every demographic group except older white women, and Hispanics. I think she will be able to hold those groups well enough (short of a Richardson endorsement of Obama) through 2/5, but everyone has known since Iowa that this election is about CHANGE, and any change voters currently supporting Edwards are not going to end up supporting Hillary - if they thought Hillary was the change candidate, they would have been supporting her already.
Look for Obama to win ID, the Midwest, and South on 2/5, and Hillary to win NY, and the Southwest. CO, CT and MA I see as pretty much deadheats. With the size of NY and CA Hillary will likely lead in delegates on 2/6, but for the next two weeks the map favors Barack so I see him having the momentum going into closing stages of the campaign. And with most of Hillary's donors maxed out, she is not going to be able to make it past March 4th when OH and TX vote - both of which I see going to Obama.
January 30, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the snub is the best thing Hillary has going for her the night before the biggest debate of her 35 years of service, then they are in more trouble than I thought. Or they think this is going to be the Crying Game part 2.
In all seriousness, I am working as a volunteer for Obama in upstate NY (read: Hillary Country). I have noticed a definite trend toward Obama in the past week in my calls. Granted, this is upstate NY so it is foolish to think Obama will beat her here, but he has a great chance to chip away at her in the delegate count up here.
Unless he shits himself on the stage tomorrow, February 5th is going to be a very long night. By that, I mean a ton of races are going to be very close.
January 30, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keith, I know politics is a rough game but I'd still like to think Edwards has a modicum of integrity. With that in mind, why would he endorse a woman who the previous decided to kick him while he was down? http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Clinton_robocalls_hit_Edwards.html
Just last Saturday, when Joe Trippi called out Clinton's rep on the robocalls, she smugly said: "Politics is tough." Despicable...
January 30, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, we need more numbers on other 2/5 states. I'm very interested to see how its going here in MN
January 30, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keith writes
Keith, you're probably right, but I submit three caveats. First, the longer he waits, the less negotiating clout he has. If Clinton has it wrapped after 2/5, she won't give him sh-t. Second, I think that he really doesn't like Clinton, and his animosity could lead him to take a bigger risk. Third, Obama might offer him more than Clinton does (VP?), which could balance the risk.
January 30, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
What the use of the snub reveals is Hillary's character--or lack thereof. She ALWAYS goes for the cheap shot. Cocaine, Madrassa, drug dealer, where's the hope?, jessie jackson, the snub, false union intimidation accusations, the teacher's union lawsuit...
She plays hardball, but it just feels so tawdry.
January 30, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Ambinder of The Atlantic breaks down the numbers thusly:
Based on polling and analysis and interviews with campaign officials.....
Hillary Clinton has an edge in New York, New Jersey, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Obama has an edge in Idaho, Minnesota, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and Illinois.
The following states lean to Clinton right now: California, Connecticut
The following entities lean Obama right now: Colorado, Democrats Abroad
True tossups: Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico, Utah, American Samoa, Alaska, Massachusetts
January 30, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really doubt Edwards would endorse Clinton. Maybe he would cut a deal with her to sit it out. But if he endorses someone, I bet it would be Obama.
January 30, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Edwards does endorse Hillary, people will look at it as a huge sell-out... he has obviously taken Obamas side more than hers. Politicaly, they may be a bit more alligned than he and Obama, but on everything else... I just can't see him doing it, especially after watching his speech today.
January 30, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
nycvoter,
You're wrong. Here's what Hillary had to say about "The Snub". What a phony.
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/01/29/hillary-on-the-snub.aspx
January 30, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
A very interesting development:
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=393
January 30, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
American Samoa is a tossup? Obama should just play up the Hawaii & Indonesia thing. Maybe go surfing or something.
January 30, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone know why Hillary is appearing on FOX News trying to play the "coy" female?
That's her base: old, uninformed Fox viewers.
January 30, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow--I'm starting to feel a tad less pessimistic about next Tuesday!
January 30, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually Obama just announced two events in New Mexico for Friday, one early afternoon economic summit, one evening rally.
I'm not saying that means he has Richardson's endorsement, but IF it's happening (huge if that I still consider unlikely), it'll probably happen on Friday.
January 30, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keith - Given the way that Edwards has been going after Hillary for at least 9 months, and the fact that at the NH debate he told the audience that he and Obama are the "change agents" and Hillary "the status quo", if Edwards endorsed her now, he'd be the biggest hypocrit on earth. It would be ridiculous.
January 30, 2008 10:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama supporters are overlooking a couple of things. Obama is coming off the best week of his life, so naturally the polls are going to be skewed. The win in SC by such big numbders made him suddenly look like a frontrunner, a theme the media gladly played up. And some of the real demographic issues that led to that win are not possible to discuss, because the Obama camp has successfully labeled as racist any discussion of the vote that centers on race.
He also got the Kennedy endorsement, which was a big boost for him. And the media played along once again, covering it like Princess Di's wedding. But the glow of endorsements fades, and the frontrunner image will be a little hard to maintain if Hillary beats him by a decent margin on Super Tuesday.
I don't pretend to know what will happen, but I do know that many Obama supporters seem hopelssly naive when it comes to electoral politics. When Obama wins, they're almost orgasmic in their tiumphalism, certain that he's on his way to victory. When he loses, all they can tak about is the other side cheating.
If Obama wins the nomination, I will support him wholeheartedly. But that's a long way off, and I think Obama supporters are kidding themsleves if they think this surge in the polls means game over. When Hillary racks up some big wins on Tuesday the press is just as likely to start peddling a "comeback kid" theme.
January 30, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hello, This is the Hillary Clinton for President Campaign.
Before you vote on Saturday, you should know that John Edwards voted for permanent trade relations with China. That’s right, John Edwards voted for the bill that cost thousands of jobs. Like the ones in the textile mills he talks about so much down here.
You should also know that John Edwards made nearly a half a million dollars working for a Wall Street investment fund. A fund that’s been profiting on foreclosing on the homes of families; including 100 homes right here in South Carolina. That’s according to The State newspaper. Here in South Carolina, Edwards says he’s one of us, but up on Wall Street he was just another one of them.
Can you trust John Edwards?
Ouch!
January 30, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I admit, I am reposting from another thread in the TPM universe, but figured it was germane, so:
I will say it again (for the first time here). Last Monday Obama set the trap by calling out Bill on Good Morning America in advance of the debate. To me, the message was, "If you can't control Bill, then I will." They took the bait, the debate became all about BOTH Bill & Hillary and the week was spent discussing "Billary." Obama and his team drove the narrative all week and they got the idea of a co-presidency into the public's bloodstream.
Say what you want about Obama, but he clearly has learned a few lessons on how to play the game. The entire Clinton campaign was on the defensive before South Carolina and Monday's stunt in Florida was a weak attempt to get the news cycle.
Edwards dropping out dominated the news cycle today with the Obama Denver speech also breaking through because he drew sharp distinctions with his only opponent left in the race.
That said, the Clintons are very very smart so they will have a few tricks up their sleeve, but they have got some serious catching up to do tomorrow night in LA. 8PM, CNN. Be there.
January 30, 2008 11:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just noticed that Obama (pretty discretely) announced that he would be in BOTH Albuquerque and Santa Fe this Friday after the debate. Now, he's not too competitive there and he's been spending each day this week in only one city in each Feb 5 state before moving on. So, this has got to say something. Is Richardson endorsing Obama on Friday??
January 30, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS FOR HILLARY. !!!HILLMENTUM!!!
January 30, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
She could do without these types of articles:
An Ex-President, a Mining Deal and a Big Donor
January 30, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillmentum? Please. Obama's got the Hulkster:
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/hulk_hogans_view.php
Ain't no stopping that train.
January 30, 2008 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps the good Massachusetts voters are a little short on information regarding the true nature of Obama/Rezko ‘08? I’m however sure that could be remedied.
January 30, 2008 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
More good news for Obama:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/01/30/BAVUUO9E4.DTL
(scroll down)
I admit this isnt the most official poll ever, but here's what it came up with:
Over three nights, last Wed, Thur, and Sun, its
Hillary 36
Obama 31
On just Sunday however, the numbers are this:
Hillary 32
Obama 35
w/ Monday looking basically
Like the MA poll, it doesn't prove anything, but things are definetly looking better for Obama then a week ago.
January 30, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
My comment above should have said "w/ Monday looking basically the same."
and, I guess "better for Obama THAN a week ago."
January 30, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://a.abcnews.com/images/Politics/ht_ClintonRezko_080125_ms.jpg
January 30, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
but I do know that many Obama supporters seem hopelssly naive when it comes to electoral politics.
We're also hopelessly blurry when you take your glasses off.
January 30, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXWsMZLRsT8
Obama's toast
January 30, 2008 11:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think an Edwards' endorsement of Obama is quite possible given the cards before us. If Edwards just dropped out and endorsed Obama, Obama would get just one news cycle before Super Tuesday. But looked what happened. Edwards drops out on Wednesday and kills news of Hillary "win" in Florida. Obama praises Edwards in a speech in Denver big time and leaves a tribute on Edwards up all day. (Clinton's web tribute went down fairly quickly). Edwards' team builds the idea he is undecided between the two and there is a real battle for his endorsement. Then even though he is out of the race he is coming to LA to walk the picket line with writers on Thursday. What is up with that? He talks to all the media outlets pre-debate since he is in LA anyway. Then immediately after the debate (which will be the most watched of all the debates), there is breaking news that Edwards will endorse Obama Friday morning. If Obamaa did so-so in the debate, this will drown out the comments. If Obama did great, it will build his mo even more.
Remember Teddy told Obama on Thursday he would endorse. It was staged for Monday.
And Mudcat Saunders (a top JRE advisor) is all against a Clinton endorsement.
January 30, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Grant, you are an inbred smear-merchant..
January 30, 2008 11:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark wrote on January 30, 2008 11:31 PM:
Hey Grant, you are an inbred smear-merchant.
http://a.abcnews.com/images/Politics/ht_ClintonRezko_080125_ms.jpg
January 30, 2008 11:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the interest of neutrality, and to counterbalance those who argue Hillary is Satan, I want to point out three key differences:
Satan provides free heat
Satan has better music
Satan is an open Republican
January 30, 2008 11:34 PM | Reply |