Rasmussen: Obama Up By 12 In New Hampshire

Comments (14)

Jenna L wrote on January 6, 2008 3:49 PM:

Go, go, go Obama!!

FlyOnTheWall wrote on January 6, 2008 4:03 PM:

I don't see any evidence here that Obama is "managing to sustain his post-Iowa bounce through this weekend." Rather, you're seeing evidence of the dangers of Friday night polling.

The first Rasmussen post-Iowa poll used only data from Friday night, and found just a ten point bounce for Obama. Friday night is a notoriously terrible time to reach voters - particularly voters under the age of 45 where Obama finds his biggest margin of support. Most pollsters won't consider releasing data based on a single night of calls, preferring instead to call back over several nights, preserving the integrity of the initial sample. Even Rasmussen generally uses a four-day average, but eschewed that in this instance in its rush to publish post-Iowa numbers.

So today, to their initial Friday night sample of 510 voters, they added 710 who were reached on Saturday. And it averaged up to a 12 point lead - that is to say, if you want to stack the two polls side-by-side for comparison, Obama registered a 10 point lead on Friday, and a 14 point lead on Saturday.

But it's the latter result that's likely closer to the mark, because there was a broader window and a larger sample on Saturday. And we're going to see most of the reputable, mainstream polls start to churn out similar results over the next two days. Watch for the batch of numbers, in particular, that get released tomorrow - numbers based on calls through Sunday night, when younger voters (and of all other ages) are much easier to reach. The polling in Iowa suffered from dramatic undersampling of younger voters, which is why every poll understated Obama's margin (most polls included 2-8% under the age of 30 - but that group accounted for 20% on caucus night).

But don't call it a continuing surge, or a late surge. That implies that voters are continuing to change their minds about Obama . For the most part, we're seeing something different - a dramatic watershed moment after the Iowa caucus that's taking the pollsters several days to document.

John McCutchen wrote on January 6, 2008 4:11 PM:

We'll all find out soon enough whether it can last until Tuesday.

That's about the weakest whistle-past-the-graveyard I have heard

John McCutchen wrote on January 6, 2008 4:17 PM:

You'd think that the Inevitable, Electable, Vetted, and Annointed One would win not lose.

Wouldn't you?

Maybe that's why WaPo declared a new frontrunner

America's Voting Different
The conversation continues

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6h3G-lMZxjo

brm wrote on January 6, 2008 4:34 PM:

CELEBRATE
The end of the Busg-Clinton era

Cant wait for the Goldwater Girl's concession speech

jdmcc in NH wrote on January 6, 2008 4:47 PM:

Is it be possible that we could frame and run this presidential campaign in some way other than the unrepresentative, ego-driven, combative, winner-take-all primary mess we seem saddled with?

I appreciate the consistent and strongly articulated positions which John Edwards has taken. I've also liked Obama's recent call for a national Coalition for Change. I'd suggest that Obama and Edwards join forces to present the strongest imaginable national leadership team. Their styles are complimentary and the policies quite similar and, hopefully, still work in progress.

Obama and Edwards in '08 - that sounds like an amazing ticket to me. Two of the strongest leaders we could ever hope for joining forces to undo the Bush damage of the past eight years and facilitating the many changes we have been hoping for.

And, by the way, what is going on with the Federal Elections Commission and our need for adequate fund-matching for current campaigns and our concerns about election fraud, faulty voting machines, paper trails, voter lists, etc? We should all be deeply troubled by the lack of attention and progress on these matters in the White House and Congress. ???

Bupalos wrote on January 6, 2008 4:48 PM:

I think what we'll see, Eric, is whether Clinton can stay within 12 by Tuesday. The movement is all away from her.

In retrospect what we are seeing is the danger Clinton was courting by running as a pseudo incumbent and leaning so hard on machine politics. Running that way, she simply cannot survive the message of Iowa. The surface looked smooth, but the ice beneath her was thin and now that it cracked, this is going to be a mess.

John McCutchen wrote on January 6, 2008 4:50 PM:

Panic in Camp Billary Spreads!

Clinton Advisers Fear NH Loss - South Carolina to Follow

The Politico.com
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7759.html
“It’s still possible to win or take a close second in New Hampshire, but if the turnout even begins to mirror what happened in Iowa, all bets are off,” said a Clinton adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The adviser added that the campaign has come to accept another reality of the early process, which is that African-American voters are convinced that Obama is viable and shifting rapidly in his direction.

“We’re going to lose South Carolina,” he said.

Oh That Smell!

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6498711445908927300&q=that+smell+skynyrd&total=72&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=2

Michael wrote on January 6, 2008 5:00 PM:

He's certainly right, they are going to lose South Carolina. The only question is whether it's on the heels of a NH loss as well. All the trends point to "yes, it will be"

Interesting that throughout all this, Nevada has been pretty much ignored

Chris G. wrote on January 6, 2008 6:06 PM:

New WMUR/CNN poll has Obama with a 10 point lead today (yesterday it was a 33% tie with Clinton).

Huge bounce!

http://www.wmur.com/politics/14989366/detail.html?rss=man&psp=news

Desider wrote on January 6, 2008 6:07 PM:

My God, Bupalos, Obama threw out the "running as an incumbent" tag, not Hillary. She's spent more than a year carefully building her case and credentials, bringing down her negatives, working on her crossover appeal, such as to GOP mothers on family values, damping the "Democrats are anti-religious" vibe, etc. It was Ben Smith that pinned "Inevitable" around her neck, not her. But buy it all. Obama won 38% of a caucus vote, so he must be "unbeatable" (tm). But no, that can't be arrogant to be "unbeatable" based on 22,000 votes in a peculiar electoral contest. Only Hillary is arrogant and power-hungry, all others are open and honest and embracing change.

TPS wrote on January 6, 2008 6:11 PM:

I am Hillary supporter! But, I also think these poll results are essentially correct. History says that post-Iowa bounce lasts about 5 days. And polls that are released tomorrow will accurately capture the bounce. And there is not enought time for Hillary to come back!

But, I also don't think the nomination battle will end Tuesday or after South Carolina. It will go all the way to Feb 3 and will be a dragged out marathon fight! Barack will have a lot of momentum after Tuesday! But until Feb 3 neither the Democratic or the Republican primary will be settled.

New Hampshire goes to Barack!

Greg DeLassus wrote on January 6, 2008 7:11 PM:

Interesting that throughout all this, Nevada has been pretty much ignored

My thought exactly. Mind you, I am perfectly content to see NV ignored. It is almost certainly going to go to Clinton, so the less attention it is paid, the less likely that Clinton's victory there is to break the metanarrative of Obama-the-winner! which will help our man going in to Super Tues. That said, I am somewhat surprised that the Clinton folks are not calling more attention to NV.

Unless, of course, the Clinton people see evidence in their internals to suggest that their position in NV is not as strong as I see it. Wouldn't that be a kicker?

DTM wrote on January 6, 2008 9:48 PM:

Part of the problem with discussing Nevada is that there hasn't been enough polling to get any real sense of what has been going on there.

That said--at one point Clinton was up around 20 in the RCP average for NH. If she does end up losing NH by double-digits (and that remains to be seen), then I am not sure any lead anywhere could be considered safe.

Post a comment

Name:
Email Address:
URL:
	Remember personal info?
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)