Rasmussen Gives McCain One-Point Lead In N.H.
The final Rasmussen tracking poll for the New Hampshire primary gives John McCain a one-point lead against Mitt Romney — a departure from most polls that give him a more substantial edge. Here are the numbers, compared to the ones released yesterday:
McCain 32% (+0)
Romney 31% (+0)
Huckabee 10% (-1)
Giuliani 8% (-2)
Paul 8% (+0)
Comments (9)
Michael A wrote on January 8, 2008 10:22 AM:Thanks for the news from the ground TPM. I am dying to try to find info. Any other postings from the ground will be greatly, greatly appreciated.
demwinger wrote on January 8, 2008 11:01 AM:intrade is showing Obama wins NH and wins it big.
McCain will win NH but might be a bit closer
joseph smith wrote on January 8, 2008 11:08 AM:come on, mittens. you can do it!
RobbyLove wrote on January 8, 2008 11:10 AM:If a great majority of NH independents decide to jump on the bandwagon and vote for Obama in the Dem primary, McCain will be in trouble. The independent vote is crucial to his margin of victory over Romney and without that it's going to be tough for McCain to win.
Based on anecdotal evidence so far it looks like the nightmare scenario for McCain may actually be happening, and so I wouldn't be surprised if Romney wins NH by 4 or 5 percentage points while Obama wins it huge.
Michael A wrote on January 8, 2008 11:13 AM:I hope your right RobbyLove. McCain is one of the republicans who could pull off a win in november. Come on mitt the flip, turn it on now.
Ryan wrote on January 8, 2008 11:28 AM:I'm with Michael A on this - here's hoping Romney pulls the upset in NH and wins. That would just about kill the McMentum and I have zero worries that Romney will win a general election against any of the Democrats, including Obama.
dee illuminati wrote on January 8, 2008 12:25 PM:Giuliani 8% (-2)
Paul 8% (+0)
My bet, Paul tops Giuliani
awrbb wrote on January 8, 2008 12:42 PM:The front page headline on TPM says that Rasmussen has McCain and Romney in a "dead heat." It's true that a 1-point lead is well within the margin of error, but last I heard, "dead heat" implies an actual tie.
RobbyLove wrote on January 8, 2008 3:56 PM:They talk about "dead heats" when it's a statistical tie. I've seen dead heats mentioned when there was a 4 percentage point spread.
And in a state where independents can vote in either the Republican primary or the Democrat primary, it really does drive home how close it is. This is a dead heat if ever there was one.
