Bill Clinton
is zipped up for now

Vote McCain

But make no mistake
Bill Clinton is going to take his racist show
on the road to California

Why not Bill
you can triangulate your racism
whites, latinos, blacks,
and if it works you'll be back
to seducing interns in the white house
and wagging your finger in Americans faces

We don't need, nor do we care for your "clever" racist maneuvering
Keep Bill zipped up please

By the way, do you think John Edwards really wants to be in the Billary White House -
chasing after nasty Bill with a can of Lysol day in and day out?

I didn't think so.

Vote McCain
He voted for the war just like Hillary
so we need you Hillary supporters to switch over

Please vote McCain

That's interesting, very interesting on the dem side. Now, on the republican side, comeon mitt the flip open that checkbook. Mccain would be bad for the party, he's not republican enough. Any other polls?

I have it on good authority that Barack Obama's shit doesn't stink. The man is practically an angel.

Go Obama!

Hell, even if this were the final result I would be happy, and Obama will most likely only gain ground in the next few days.

You guys talk like the man is ahead.

He's got six days and he's way behind everywhere...

Obama is toast, but the TPM Obama annex spin is funny.

Keep singing to the choir.

A close look at this poll shows that Obama might be in even better shape.

Only 25% of folks they polled were under 45 years old.

Too be honest I stuck it out with the Clintons for what seems a long time now.

But after the florida "victory fiasco" I'm just am really really tired of the spin.

I don't know who I will vote for,
but it will not be Clinton.

The Truth
you wrote

"By the way, do you think John Edwards really wants to be in the Billary White House -
chasing after nasty Bill with a can of Lysol day in and day out"?

A little snide but I have to admit there is some truth to that.

I don't think Edwards would want to compete with Bill in a Hillary administration.
You just know Bill won't let him have a voice.

Very suspect numbers. I seriously doubt the gap is this narrow

A worthy point, that. Marist had it down to a mere 16 point gap a week ago, but that turned to be an outlier. The average gap has been coming in fairly consistantly in the mid-20 point range. On the other hand, this could represent the new, post-SC/Kennedy trend.

What about the under-40/over-40 demos?

Weren't the Clintonites suspect of the South Carolina numbers when they showed Obama with a 9 point lead as well?

evie wrote on January 30, 2008 5:21 PM:
"What about the under-40/over-40 demos?"

The usual pattern, although the margins are tighter than usual in the lower and higher extremes of the age brackets. But, see my comment above about a possible Hillary vote in the undecided numbers.

It really seems like there is a lot of excitement here in California for Obama.

Just driving around I'd guess the Obama yard signs are 3 to 1 for Obama.

And I'm talking a large area in my conservative Orange county neighborhood.

I think Obama is getting a lot of republican crossover.

And just down the block at the large Mexican resturaunt (Las Olas) they are having a large Obama event tommorrow night during the debate and Saturday. (half price margaritas)

Their is definitely something moving his way out here in California.

Be Happy

Kyle- While I think TPM Obama Annex Spin is a fitting name, toast is a bit presumptuous, Obama is very much in this race even if TPM overtly fawns over him keeping it's pages streaming with every bit of positive press they can find on Obama while scouring to find every negative remark on Hillary Clinton. So, first recognize this is not a news site, it is a blog and it is has an opinion. So Obama's chances may look rosier from a TPM only perspective that makes his candidacy no less formidable and him no less likely to win.

Denis wrote on January 30, 2008 5:26 PM:

"I used to have pretty neutral feelings towards Hillary, but since the press has been so utterly and totally RUTHLESS with her, I am starting to feel sorry for her."

Yes, and I think this emerging sentiment is underreported. But, she's a tough old bird who I believe will have the last laugh on all of those who thought they would dance on her grave.

I live in upstate New York. There is no way that Obama is going to win here. Clinton is extremely well-liked. This wasn't so when she first ran in 2000 but all her hard work for her constituents turned people around. Also work in New York City once a week. Haven't met anyone who doesn't support her. Lets see what happens on Feb. 5.

You know, to chalk up your candidate's weaknesses to media conspiracies while chalking up their successes to their/your own brilliance is really disingenious and egotistical.
Maybe a candidate is struggling for honest reasons and no one is out to get you.
It's like the Ron Paul supporters. Maybe your man actually has been heard and people ain't biting.

Obamasexuals HEART Eric and we HEART NYC

Denis wrote on January 30, 2008 5:26 PM:

"I used to have pretty neutral feelings towards Hillary, but since the press has been so utterly and totally RUTHLESS with her, I am starting to feel sorry for her."

I'm with you on being neutral about Hillary in the beginning, but after seeing her in action this month, I'm really starting to dislike her.

For whatever little my opinion is worth, I agree with CT voter's endorsement of Lombard's point about reaction against a media pile-on. I would not be the least surprised if this turns out to have an effect on Tues.

mm wrote on January 30, 2008 5:36 PM:

"You know, to chalk up your candidate's weaknesses to media conspiracies while chalking up their successes to their/your own brilliance is really disingenious and egotistical."

You can hardly watch MSNBC without coming to the conclusion that they are pro-Obama. They include hardly anyone on their panels who doesn't cater to the pro-Obama, anti-Hillary spin. The closest one to an exception is Pat Buchanan and even his compliments to Clinton are backhanded to say the least. But, Buchanan is the only one who maitains skepticism about Obama.

Last night MSNBC wouldn't even show the Democratic primary results for quite awhile. I had to turn on CNN and Fox news who had both primary results posted continuously. MSNBC has put Fox news to shame for flagrant display of political preferences. Bill O'Reilly said a few weeks ago that NBC was too invested to remain objective and he was absolutely right.

CNN = Clinton News Network

"what my friend says" means nothing. Everyone I know is voting for Obama. Those that like Hillary ignore me!

lombard:

MSNBC is one of the worst, along with CNN as well. Fox, strangely enough, doesn't bother me, because it's such a whackjob network in the first place, I don't expect any different.

The problem with Maureen Dowd is that every once in awhile, she mails in a column that's not bad (the red dress mention is pretty good)...but those ok columns are counterbalanced by the body of her work which has the intellectual depth and reasoning ability of a 13 year old writing in her diary about the cool kid who snubbed her in junior high..Ms. Dowd doesn't like people who are probably demonstrably smarter and more self-confident than her. Therefore, Clinton and Obama are going to be targets for her crap.

And maybe it's just slipping my mind, but has Dowd ever taken on a male who is significantly older than her?

Enough with the psychoanalyzing. Dowd and Matthews keep up the treatment of Hillary, and that may just cement her lead.

Th point is delegates in NY. If he only pulls 40% Obama will take out a pile of delegates from the senator's home state. Clinton has been a pedestrian senator and sometimes thuggish politician (She did everyting to keep her opponent in the senate primary from having a voice at the state convention. There is a reason why NYers re taking a look at Obama.

Greg DeLassus

I stand corrected.

Clinton will easily win NY. Home state, and all that. "Duh." But since it isn't winner-take-all, Obama gets a few also.

It's the reverse in IL, for the same reasons.

As far as CA, Obama may be steadily narrowing the gap--that is, if you believe polls, which I try not to:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html

http://www.pollster.com/08-CA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Anecdotally, I think Obama will be very strong in some districts and will get a very good number of delegates. If he is really surging, it's even possible that he'll win equal or more, but I don't expect it.

Greg D, the number of Obama signs you see and the number of people you know who prefer Obama do not constitute a representative sample. Voting preferences may easily be clustered--by neighborhood, city & town, and especially by your circle of friends and repations. Furthermore, unless you actually count every sign you see, you can't discount your own bias in the signs that you remember seeing. A statistician could explain this much better than me.

The point is that polling is a science. It's often unreliable but far, far more reliable than anecdotal evidence. So by all means, take the polls with a grain of salt, but take your own personal experiences with a whole quarry full.

Thanks for the polls, Guy, but there's nothing recent enough there that would reflect the Kennedy endorsement or recent ads (or the FL vote for that matter). I'm sure that new ones will come in soon. I really hope that Obama does well;, he's got a lot of ground to cover in CA to come within striking distance of Clinton.

Sorry Greg D. Being familiar with your thoughtful posts, I was a little surprised by that one. I wondered if you were being sarcastic, but it seemed so earnest. Maybe you should have put in a disclaimer for slow people like myself.

You ran this headline last week, is the story that different?

Don't kid yourselves. Edwards' votes will go for Hilary. Yes, we were disillusioned by the war vote after Bush turned the country into the Weimar Republic (would have been nice to have seen what Mr. O would have done had he--wait for it--actually BEEN in the U.S. Senate). But I for one left the Obama vol corps after its corporate nature disgusted me. It's like the Daley administration--oh wait--that's where Michelle once worked. Look at what's waiting down the road if we don't force him to answer it and see how it shakes out--hopefully before Feb. 5th if he cares more about the party than his yuppie bank account:
http://www.suntimes.com/news/marin/766215,CST-EDT-carol30.article
No, if Al gore doesn't enter the race, and Obama doesn't QUICKLY sit down with Carol Marin, we'll have to vote Hilary. I think John Edwards had a good effect on her too. Both she and Barack stole John's platform and found it made them popular. The media is so misogynist. Wait til it's Obama and McCain--then all the Rezko stuff will fly up yet again and we'll see the video of Obama diving head first into an SUV dodging a--wait for it--rolling video camera with tires squeeling.
Bush league stuff. Too bad he didn't become John's Veep and let the vetting occur over 8 years, gradually.