Obama Campaign: Despite New Hampshire Loss, We're Well Positioned To Win Presidency
This has already gotten a bit of attention, but it's worth a look. The Obama campaign has a new campaign memo out from campaign manager David Plouffe that contains some new fundraising numbers, offers the campaign's take on yesterday's loss and lays out the game plan for the days ahead.
On the campaign's loss, the memo says that the Obama camp succeeded in "taking the once inevitable frontrunner down to the wire in her firewall state."
On fundraising:
In the 4th Quarter of 2007, our campaign raised $23.5 million – over $22.5 million of which is for the primary election. In that quarter, we added 111,000 new donors for a total of 475,000 donors in 2007.In the first 8 days of 2008, we raised over $8 million and gained 35,000 new donors. Since midnight last night, we have raised another $500,000 online.
Full memo, including staffing detail and the Obama camp's view of the coming primaries, after the jump.
TO: Interested PartiesFROM: David Plouffe
DATE: January 9, 2008
RE: The Next Four Weeks
Coming off an impressive win in Iowa and taking the once inevitable frontrunner down to the wire in her firewall state, it is clear that Obama is well-positioned to become the next President of the United States. As the people of Iowa and New Hampshire demonstrated, the American people desperately want change they can believe in. Barack Obama is the candidate to deliver that change by bringing people together, standing up to the special interests, and telling people what they need to know.
Our campaign now turns its focus squarely to Nevada and South Carolina, and February 5th. Today, we kick off the next phase of our campaign in New Jersey, an important February 5th state.
Fundraising
In the 4th Quarter of 2007, our campaign raised $23.5 million – over $22.5 million of which is for the primary election. In that quarter, we added 111,000 new donors for a total of 475,000 donors in 2007.
In the first 8 days of 2008, we raised over $8 million and gained 35,000 new donors. Since midnight last night, we have raised another $500,000 online. We continue to build a grassroots movement that makes us best-positioned to compete financially in the primaries and caucuses coming up.
Nevada
We have built the same caucus operation in Nevada as we did in Iowa, with focused and effective precinct captains in over 95 percent of the precincts in the state, and multiple captains in many precincts. We have also been reaching deep into the electorate, securing commitments to caucus from habitual Democratic voters, general election voting Democrats and Independents.
In a significant boost to our efforts, we received the endorsement of the SEIU local in Nevada late last night.
This is the first time Nevada has had a precinct caucus so organization is paramount, both in terms of shaping the overall electorate as well as the added challenge of getting voters to locations that are unfamiliar to them.
South Carolina
We have seen dramatic movement in South Carolina since Iowa, resulting in healthy double-digit leads for Senator Obama in recent public polling. We have by far the strongest organization in the state according to neutral observers and believe that, as the gateway to February 5th, South Carolina will provide our campaign enormous momentum heading into those twenty-two states.
Obama also has the support of several key political figures in South Carolina, including former Governor Jim Hodges, Charleston Mayor Joe Riley, and former party chairs Joe Erwin and Dick Harpootlian.
February 5th
We now have staff in nineteen of the twenty-two February 5th states and will be adding to the remaining three – Delaware, Arkansas and Connecticut – by the end of the week.
In the six caucus states – Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, Idaho, Alaska and North Dakota - we have been engaged in heavy organizing and voter contact. In many of these states, our opponents are not engaged in any organizing. We firmly believe you cannot build a caucus operation in a matter of four weeks, so we are at a decided advantage in these states where we have already identified tens of thousands of Obama supporters and where, in the last five days, the number of new volunteers and supporters has exploded. We are in the process of mailing past caucus-goers and our ID-ed supporters in those states. We are also preparing aggressively for vote-by-mail in states like California and Arizona, where we have mail pieces hitting this week and an exhaustive phone program in place to identify supporters and make sure those ballots are returned.
In all of the February 5th states, we have active chapters at most colleges and universities and are pursuing support from independent voters aggressively where they are permitted to participate, which is in most of the states. California and New Jersey, two states the Clintons have pointed to as firewalls, both will have healthy independent turnout in the Democratic primary.
We expect to see a great deal of movement to Obama from superdelegates in the coming days, seriously eroding the Clintons’ existing advantage in this universe.
To fully execute a robust February 5th strategy, it will take tens of millions of dollars. Our financial picture is strong and growing stronger by the day, which will allow us to have a significant paid media presence to go alongside our grassroots operations in our target February 5th states.
We expect, as we begin to see significant national poll movement, that there will also be positive poll movement in the February 5th states. Obama saw substantial gains in the individual February 5th state polls in December opening up a lead in Georgia and seeing a seriously tightening race in California.
We will be releasing later today our final fourth quarter 2007 estimates, as well as some numbers for the first eight days of January for both dollars raised, as well as number of total donors and new donors acquired in these periods.
The coming weeks will be challenging and no doubt filled with more haphazard and relentless attacks, but we believe we could not be better positioned for the next twenty four states. Our goal is simple – to win as many states as we can in the next twenty-eight days.
I think this aimed more at Edwards than anyone else.
January 9, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
So I guess they finally figured out their spin. Not very convincing.
It doesn't matter how much money he has or how good his organization is if people aren't going to vote for him when they get in the safety of the booth.
January 9, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this is aimed at the American public and those who may want to come out and help support Barack's candidacy.
We are
FIRED UP!!
and
READY to GO!!!
January 9, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone know where these polls might be found? I have not seen anything newer than four weeks old from CA and have been looking for such data anxiously.
January 9, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
nice, nice going strong
I still believe he is going to win this, with or without Edwards' 20% handicap.
January 9, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been in touch with the head of Obama's Florida operation and the head of Feb 5th volunteer operation, and FWIW, when I told them that the NH loss only strengthened my resolve, caused me to donate $100 on the spot, and now has me flying cross country to volunteer in Cali in the week before Feb 5th, their response was, basically, "we've been getting a lot of this.
The line in Plouffe's memo that reads:
Since midnight last night, we have raised another $500,000 online seems to bear this out. Obama's national "momentum" may be sapped, but it seems his "movement" is just gearing up.
Like I said, FWIW.
Andrew Sullivan has some more anecdotal evidence here
January 9, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg--I've found that emailing the good folks over at pollster.com has consistently served me well (link is to their contacts page). They've responded and been helpful when I've had questions about finding or interpreting polling data, and even printed a note I wrote them in a blog post!
January 9, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
January 9, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right on! I'm donating another $25. Who's with me?
January 9, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
This baby's going to swing right back. Wallowing in all the post-mortem on NH, what becomes clearest is that Hillary won mostly because she was losing so badly she turned into a victim, and the beatdown got too harsh and provoked a backlash. Barack played well, but women threw a flag at the whole media process. And democrats love an underdog, and didn't want to put this one down just yet.
We'll play tight in Michigan, close out Nevada, seal the deal in SC, and go into super2s having won 3 or 4 out of 5.
bush-clinton-clinton-bush-bush-clinton?
Fired up! Ready to Go!
January 9, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
This baby's going to swing right back. Wallowing in all the post-mortem on NH, what becomes clearest is that Hillary won mostly because she was losing so badly she turned into a victim, and the beatdown got too harsh and provoked a backlash. Barack played well, but women threw a flag at the whole media process. And democrats love an underdog, and didn't want to put this one down just yet.
We'll play tight in Michigan, close out Nevada, seal the deal in SC, and go into super2s having won 3 or 4 out of 5.
bush-clinton-clinton-bush-bush-clinton?
Fired up! Ready to Go!
January 9, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
John:
You are not alone.
January 9, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I donated $100 this morning. And I will do everything else that I can for Obama.
January 9, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
We don't need the Wilder Effect to explain this. I spend a lot of time in New Hampshire; I'm literally looking out my window at New Hampshire right now. People up this way aren't racist, and are relatively sophisticated considering how rural much of the state is. But they're also a bit suspicious of anyone not just like them - regardless of race. Not based on skin color, but on voice and attitude, H. Clinton is more like them. And that carries a lot of weight in Northern New England politics.
Despite all that the media have made of Obama's great oratorical skills, his "preacherly" cadences are foreign to this corner of the country - even among preachers. Clinton's more commonplace manner of speaking counts as more genuine to the natives here, despite being seen as a bit unreal by many elsewhere. While people were impressed with Obama, many didn't know what to make of him, and voted for the comfort of the familiar - again, not racially, but culturally.
However, most of the nation is culturally not much like Northern New England. The real election won't be decided here.
January 9, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cooked!
and
Done!
Anyway why come out with a memo now? Me thinks after obama's lousy 3rd quarter fundraising they protest too much.
January 9, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, wtf? Hillary outraised him by a lousy million Q3 and she wrung her old FOB and "any woman will do" donor base dry (from and FEC standpoint) to do it. He made double that back in mostly small contributions the week following just by sending out some emails.
January 9, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Am I the only one who wants to see a Clinton/Obama ticket just for the fund raising ability?
January 9, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
RE: Voter Fraud in New Hampshire
It looks like voter fraud may have been responsible for the Clinton win in NH. The Obama camp has been approached by a number of parties that are asking him to request a recount of the votes.
There is a statistically significant discrepancy between exit polls, actual votes counted by hand in the various voting districts, and those tabulated by Diebold tabulator machines. The exit polls and hand counted votes indicate Obama should have won NH by at least 2% to 5%, but the votes tabulated by the Diebold machines (the ones fingered in the 2004 election fraud) had the result flipped to favor Clinton. In addition, several pre-election polls were right on the money for the results of ALL the other candidates in BOTH the GOP and democratic race – except the Obama/Clinton match-up and Ron Paul.
Also, NONE of the Ron Paul votes were counted. As of right now, NH is still reporting that Ron Paul got NO votes, which is not true. He was polling at 5% to 10% before votes were cast.
The Centre for Research on Globalization:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7753
Boston Now:
http://www.bostonnow.com/blogs/boston911truthorg/2008/01/09/major-allegations-of-vote-fraud-in-new-hampshire
The Ben Mosely Blog:
http://benmoseley.blogspot.com/2008/01/do-nh-primary-statistics-show-election.html
Product Reviews
http://www.product-reviews.net/2008/01/09/new-hampshire-vote-fraud-confirmed-ron-paul-votes-not-counted/
Malta Star:
http://www.maltastar.com/pages/msFullArt.asp?an=17896
January 9, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
gloated a little bit when BHO took Iowa (a state that HSG loved) and a predicted a big win in NH, so I have to eat a little crow and congratulate Hillary & Co. But while the media pretends that this is the biggest upset since David slew Goliath, I think a few things need to be pointed out:
1. Hillary was ahead in New Hampshire last week, last month and last year.
2. Barack Obama, a freshman African-American senator with a funny name from the South Side of Chicago wiped the floor with Hillary in Iowa, a rural state with exactly 2 black people in it, even though Hillary has been one of the most recognizable and popular figures in Democratic politics for more than 15 years and enjoyed massive institutional and Establishment support.
3. Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama by only three points in New Hampshire, a small New England state with exactly one black person, where the Clinton machine has built a massive political apparatus over more than 17 years. One year ago, probably less than 10 people in New Hampshire even knew who Barack Obama was. The fact that the race was even this close should be a credit to him, not to her. Of course the media will not play it as such.
4. Unlike Hillary, Barack Obama didn't go crying (literally) and whining to the media and didn't go negative. The fact that she did (even playing the disgusting Karl Rove card of trying to scare the electorate by invoking terrorist attacks) and won is to me, quite depressing. Barack's campaign, on the other had, has been a model of class.
5. Barack Obama doesn't have a spouse who was President of the United States for 8 years. Frankly Bill's antics and whining over the past week have been embarrassing, and as a lifelong Democrat and a big Clinton supporter over the years, I found them depressing and revolting. On the other hand, as I said, Barack's campaign (as evidenced by his concession speech last night) has been nothing less than entirely gracious and classy.
6. I'm afraid that if Hillary wins the nomination, we will go down the path of John Kerry. Republicans salivate over the thought of her nomination and she has shown absolutely zero ability to build support outside of the Democratic base.
January 9, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems that the actual delegate count out of New Hampshire for Clinton and Obama is identical: 9 delegates for Clinton, 9 delegates for Obama.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/09/final-the-new-hampshire-delegate-breakdown/
Does anyone know if there is an official delegate count?
January 9, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am in complete agreement with jbently.
Also, while I know that Jacksons comments will be devisive, Im glad that they are calling Hillary on her tactics. She repeatedly said this is not a game, but views any tactics as permissable to get a win, even if that means damaging the public discourse.
I would like to hear from Michelle Obama in the next few days - I think it would be completely right for her to defend her husband from the smears of the last week.
She is an incredible woman and one who could really tackle Hillary in a way that Barrack is not allowed too.
January 9, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
You guys have convinced me--I'm going to kick some money to Obama. Thought about it last night, but hadn't made the jump.
My past rule has been: no money to any Dem in a primary. But considering how strongly I believe that a Clinton nomination would be bad for the party and (much more important) the country, that rule is now inoperative.
No need to be overly demoralized by last night. These guys are pros (in all three camps), and a win now will be both better earned and more satisfying than if it had come as easily as it seemed it might.
And for that matter, the media's endless asshattery regarding Clinton even impels me to take a little satisfaction in her sticking it to them. But that's a one-time deal; as the drama level dips, I think Obama is positioned to win Nevada and SC and retake some momentum heading into Ginormous Tuesday.
January 9, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
RE: New Hampshire Voter Fraud
Obama won the hand counted votes, but lost the machine tabulated votes. Clinton lost the hand counted votes but won the machine tabulated votes. The machine tabulated votes were flipped to favor Clinton.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_ron_corv_080109_new_hampshire_electi.htm
January 9, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I certainly hope you're the only one.
I am finished with Clinton. I was early on very open to her being the nominee. However, seeing her appeal-to-terror-cheney-style, muckraking behind the scenes, desperate crying gambit... I will not vote for her in the general election if she is the candidate.
I will instead vote my conscience and write in Barack Obama.
I think he has a hell of a shot at it... I think he comes out of both Iowa/NH much stronger than her.
What I love most about his candidacy is that he is not merely inspirational, he is aspirational -- substantively appealing to what is best about being a citizen in this country. And if a movement takes off with national sweep, the power of it certainly CAN be translated into legislative progress. Among other things.
January 9, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
@Dlugo re delegate count:
The best site I've found for tracking the ins-and-outs of the bizarre caucus-convention system and how delegates are officially counted is The Green Papers:
www.thegreenpapers.com
@ava:
Please, for the love of all that is holy, knock off this stupid Diebold election bullshite. Every ballot in NH is PAPER!!
January 10, 2008 8:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
There are very few minorities in New England. California, by contrast, is a melting pot. Look for Obama to do well in the golden state.
January 10, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Talk is cheap, Plouffe.
January 10, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why is the frontpage subhead of this story, "We're Doing Good?" The campaign would say, "We're Doing Well" and so should you. Is that some sort of backhanded way to asssociate Obama with ebonics and improper English? What's up?
January 10, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Michael's Mom:
Exactly.
January 10, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink