Marist: Obama Ahead By Eight Points In New Hampshire

Comments (9)

Ben wrote on January 7, 2008 10:21 AM:

What is the total percentage of the vote allocated to independents?

RaymondA wrote on January 7, 2008 10:28 AM:

The really important thing to take away from these polls -- and the Iowa results -- is that if Hillary is our nominee, she will be starting at a huge disadvantage with regard to the part of the electorate this is essential to winning national elections, i.e., independents. Dems, even on the rise, now constitute only something like 38 percent of the electorate, with Repubs around 33, and indies now making up 25-29. Edwards will start to flail among indies if he ever gets traction and attention is drawn to his new angry populist message, which is rooted in Huey Long c. 1932 or George Wallace 1968, minus the racism.

Also -- though I think it's unfair -- Hillary's little flashes of anger like on Saturday or her flashes of arrogance like in the Des Moines Register debate where she laughed and interrupted Obama with "I gotta hear this" for some reason turn off indies far more than Dems or Repubs. THe reason is that indies often pay more attention to style and perceived character traits, and less attention to issues. Still, those who care about issues of course need to win them over to get stuff done.

John McCutchen wrote on January 7, 2008 10:29 AM:

The Dean Scream of 2008 - Big Bubba blubbers:

I'm sorry but I can't make her younger, can't make her taller, can't make her male

Well Bill we all can't have hot young boys now can we ?
(sigh)

http://www.statesmanblogs.com/userphotos/CommunityUpdate/Taylor%20Kitsch.jpg

DRinOH wrote on January 7, 2008 10:51 AM:

For everyone worried about Obama's electability, here's a must read:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/07/republicans-worried-about-obama/

Eric Kleefeld wrote on January 7, 2008 11:00 AM:

"What is the total percentage of the vote allocated to independents?"

It's about 60% Dem, 40% indy. That's in line with other pollsters.

The advantage of being a registered indy in New Hampshire is that you can vote in any primary you want. So a lot of people naturally do it, rather than pigeon-hole themselves. In practice, I'd imagine a lot of them will vote reliably for one party or the other in general elections.

Michael A wrote on January 7, 2008 11:03 AM:

Thanks for the link DRinOH. I will bet you a lunch the republican "insider" was bay buchanan. The quotes sound just like her. Also, the quotes are so true. Look out novmeber, we are finally going to get our country back.

frankly0 wrote on January 7, 2008 11:06 AM:

For everyone worried about Obama's electability, here's a must read:

And we should take the opinions of a Republican strategist at face value why exactly? Because we are, say, naive down to our twinkly toes?

Look, the real issue with Obama is that he has NEVER in his political life suffered through a concerted Republican attack, and certainly not one conducted at the national level.

Whether being the "It" guy could possibly propel him over all this slime no one can pretend to know. What I do know is this: if and when he arrives in the WH, he's going to be far more damaged goods than he is now.

What we don't know yet is just how damaged, and in just what ways.

Personally, I pretty much expect that Obama is going to turn into another Jimmy Carter, who likewise got into the WH on a surge of enthusiasm -- which, however, just barely survived long enough to keep him above Gerald Ford.

And then when he arrived in the WH he quickly turned to perceived shit.

brm wrote on January 7, 2008 11:19 AM:

The DLC princess is going to get trounced
Celebrate the end of the Bush-Clinton era of politics.
The debate performance just killed her in NH. I know all the Clintonites scoffed at Luntz's focus group. But that is exactly what NH voters think of her.
Another reason is her AUMF vote. In the beginning of the campaign, she took a question on that from a NH voter, and dismissed the questioner, by saying if you dont like my vote on the AUMF, vote for someone else.

We heard you Hillary and we are going to do that tomorrow in record numbers

ava wrote on January 7, 2008 11:32 AM:

I don’t know if this is true, but The Drudge Report is saying that, facing a big loss in NH, Hillary may drop out soon. Here’s the report...

TALK OF HILLARY EXIT ENGULFS CAMPAIGNS
Mon Jan 07 2008 09:46:28 ET

Facing a double-digit defeat in New Hampshire, a sudden collapse in national polls and an expected fund-raising drought, Senator Hillary Clinton is preparing for a tough decision: Does she get out of the race? And when?!

"She can't take multiple double-digit losses in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada," laments one top campaign insider to the DRUDGE REPORT. "If she gets too badly embarrassed, it will really harm her. She doesn't want the Clinton brand to be damaged with back-to-back-to-back defeats."

Meanwhile, Democrat hopeful John Edwards has confided to senior staff that he is staying in the race because Hillary "could soon be out."

"Her money is going to dry up," Edwards confided, a top source said Monday morning.

MORE

Key players in Clinton's inner circle are said to be split. James Carville is urging her to fight it out through at least February and Super Tuesday, where she has a shot at thwarting Barack Obama in a big state. But others close to the former first lady now see no possible road to victory, sources claim.

Developing...

[The dramatic reversal of fortunes has left the media establishment stunned and racing to keep up with fast-moving changes.

In its final poll before Iowa, CNN showed Clinton with a two-point lead over Obama. Editorial decisions were being made based on an understanding the Democratic primary race would be close, explained a network executive.]

http://www.drudgereport.com/flashhn.htm

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