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Hillary Ally Drops Mailer In Florida -- Despite Candidates' Pledge Against Campaigning

AFSCME drops a new mailer in Florida urging a vote for Hillary. The mailer was sent our way by a political operative, and while by law this has to be uncoordinated with the Hillary campaign, the union is obviously carrying out activity on her behalf despite the candidates' "pledge" against campaigning there.

The Hillary campaign aggressively made the case today that despite the pledge, the voters of Florida deserve to be heard and that the state's delegation should be seated.

Also note the heavy push-back in the mailer on Obama's "change" message (which is done without mentioning Obama). Click on the images to enlarge:


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Politico's Ben Smith also reports a pro-Hilary robocall.

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Billary is racist to the core.
No reason for it.

We need mature conversation here.

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There is some evidence reported by Florida newspapers that independents were allowed to vote in the GOP primary in some places, which is a huge irregularity that could benefit McCain.

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I realize hypocrisy is a feature, not a bug, in the Clintons' campaing, but itsn't this sleazy even for them?

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Good for her. Doesn't bother me much, because Obama, according to Rasmussen, is even with HRC in Connecticut.

Watch Massachusetts fall in the coming week.

A Florida victory means nothing for HRC, media-wise, though it may help on the bank account.

Listening to "Woodstock," CSNY. Feeling very good right now, even if my HRC nomination prediction is still holding. Swaying, shaken, but holding without significant loss.

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From a reader at AndrewSullivan.com:

Winning New York City would be more than a symbolic victory for Obama. In New York State, twenty-three Congressional Districts have five delegates\ apiece, and six CDs have six delegates. Five of those six are in NYC. Were Obama to carry those districts, he'd score 4 delegates to Hillary's 2, or 3 to her 1 if Edwards tops 15%. In the remaining CDs, if Obama can just top 30%, the delegates will split 3-2 in favor of Hillary, or 2-2-1 if Edwards meets the threshold.

The point is this. Using the numbers in the poll you cite, and the conservative assumptions that Hillary wins every single district out of the city, that Obama everywhere garners at least 30%, and that Edwards doesn't meet the threshold anywhere, the pledged delegate tallies for New York State would be: Hillary 132, Obama 100. You can knock one delegate off of Hillary's total for every upstate CD in which Edwards cracks 15%; if he breaks that statewide, subtract another 6 from Hillary and 4 from Obama.

The point is this. Hillary's strategy is built on the assumption that she can leverage huge leads in NY, NJ, and CA to compensate for her losses in the south and midwest. And in the last week, that strategy has gone up in smoke. She's finished; if our national media wasn't innumerate, it would have noticed by now.

Full post here:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/01/obama-in-nyc.html

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Way to shit all over the DNC again Hillary. I love that not only will you divide your own party by lying about and attacking members of your OWN PARTY, not to mention trying to disenfranchise voters in NV, then deciding that Florida should matter now that you need the votes, and now campaigning there, shameless. And maybe the worst part is just how cynical and transparent all of this is, she didn't give a damn about voters in Florida until her "inevitability" plan didn't work out for her, and her race baiting backfired. Way to exploit when it suits you, way to pretend to care for personal gain. No wonder no one believes a damn thing you say or pretend to feel.

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She's finished; if our national media wasn't innumerate, it would have noticed by now.

You are greatly underestimating this two-headed monster. They will not go easily into their old age. They will go to court, like Bush in 2000, if they thought it could leverage one more delegate. You are talking about a monster political machine that has 8 years of presidential favors to call to roost.

No. Don't count your chicks yet.

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Change takes more than words? What? Does she expect him not to mention it? If that's what he plans on doing, he needs to talk about it. Kind of hard to act on it at the moment.

This ad also creates the impression that she may want to enact the same change as Obama...like yeah, we both want change, but I can do it.

My favorite part of Obama's CHANGE campaign is his ideas on congress. He's the only one interested in working with the republicans. Hillary says she knows how to beat the republicans. I don't think we should be fighting them, they live here too, they represent citizens, just the same as her. Not to mention the fact that fighting the opposition gets us nowhere. We have too many wars, the war in Iraq/the war on terror, the war on drugs, the war on poverty, the war in congress. We really need to work together for the common good, and YES, there is common good. There are things we all want in America. Compromise may not be fun, but it's necessary. Time for politicians to swallow their pride and and learn, or just pretend, to get along.

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Should help push her delegate count in Florida to just about ZERO.

Seriously, why would they expend dollars in a state they were going to win since NO ONE CAMPAIGNED THERE? This is just silly....

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Big News

Rasmussen’s new poll for CT shows Obama and Clinton are tied at 40% each. It’s the first new poll taken since he won SC, but BEFORE Ted Kennedy’s endorsement was announced. Also, prior to this poll, Hillary was leading by 20%.

Hillary was supposed to have a lock on the NY tri-state (NY, NJ, CT), so if CT is in play, she may be in trouble in NJ and NY as well.

The new Kennedy ads are coming out one after another in all the big states.

Obama is making up ground FAST. Looks like Obama could pull an upset on February 5th.

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angry vet: do you have a link for the CT Rasmussen poll? I can't find any sign of it on the Rasmussen site, or at Pollster.com.

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Beyond the ethics of all this, what I am wondering is... if she's like 20 or 30 or whatever points ahead in all the polls and expecting a victory by large margins (even if not that large)...

Why the last minute flurry of flyers and robocalls? (Also the putting off of the last scheduled "Florida should count" call till further notice (unless that has to do with the lawsuit rumors)). Does her campaign know something y'all don't?

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hillary doesnt like to play by the rules. I've long said that how you run your campaign is how you'll govern.

we've had 8 years of a president not playing by the rules. do we really want more of that???

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Do these details even matter at this point? HRC supporters already have ample evidence that she will say anything, do anything, throw anyone under the bus (supporters or no) to win the nomination. And they're FINE with that. No further examples are going to change their mind. Proving their candidate is duplicitious is redundant - proving that this might somehow be wrong in some way, might, but i can't see Obama supporters overcoming a lifetime of cynical conditioning or strenuous repression.

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totally off topic, sorry:

but this "snub" nonsense is totally annoying and pissing me off. i'm pleased TPM has avoided it...but can i hear from hillary / obama folks alike that this is the kind of stupid political noise that debases the system?

we've obviously got our differences and believe the one candidate is more precious than the other, but come on. do people actually think he went out of his way to avoid her? that would be ridiculous.

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If Obama's NAFTA mailer was "negative," why isn't this one? The NAFTA mailer just made factual points, with references to back them up. How is that negative, but "change is more than words" is not?

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I will duck out of politics for a good long while if Clinton wins the nomination because of Michigan and Florida votes. Those who play by the party rules get punished and those who don't lead the party. Guess its politics as usual, which is exactly what I'm tired of.

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benjoya: thanks yeah I just found it too. since you posted I will refrain. Weird they don't have it on their front page or even on the Politics page. I had to search the term Connecticut.

That's a pretty amazing result, although two caveats to remember: one-day polls are really even more snapshot-like than normal multi-day surveys, and weekend polls are considered a bit weak even by experts. But Sundays are considered better than fridays or saturdays.

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So, the robo calls a story but Obama running a barrage of ads state-wide in Florida, is not.

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Jane Fallows:

It was a national ad, not a statewide ad. I'm sure that's a distinction without a difference, but just wanted to get the correct information out there.

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Lets see, an unaffiliated group running robocalls, dropping a mailer, and another, PROMISING THE CANDIDATE WILL APPEAR at a victory event at 7pm today??? Unaffiliated, but they must have coordinated or they wouldn't know the candidate would be there, no? This is campaigning. Why? Because no one will do a G__ damn thing about it.

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I like this bit from the rasmussen write up:

3% say they’d vote for some other candidate

The only other candidate in the race is Mike Gravel.

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The only safe thing to say is that the race is tightening. I wouldn't believe any of these polls--not only because of NH (to Hillary) but because of SC (to Obama by a ridiculous margin) too! Each campaign should be going about it like they're 20 points behind if they have any brains at all.

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Golly none of you are posting about the story of the Obama ally doing the same thing. I'm sure you will get around to it when your busy schedule permits.

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According to this Huffington Post article, this has been on the wires for almost a week:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tag/afscme

Still makes no sense to me. There are NO DELEGATES at stake tonight.

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GORE! Coming....

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Actually Florida is very important come the general election and it's best to keep the party from completely revolting. They will be very unhappy with any candidate that fights to prevent their delegates from being seated. Remember the primary was set by the Republican legislature not the state party.

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I won't totally dismiss any poll out of hand, but in addition to the fact that Rasmussen is not that well respected, I would submit that a poll taken the day the newspapers are filled with stories about a landslide victory is not exactly a reliable snapshot of the electorate. We usually see things settle down after a bump like that.

As for campaigning in Florida, since when is a candidate responsible for what unafilliated groups do? If that's the case, then how can you defend the Obama campaign for running racist ads in Nevada? The were run by an unafilliated group, but what's good for the goose...

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obama racist in Nevada? Please provide details. i haven't gone 30 minutes without news in 6 weeks and that seems to have escaped me.

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Oh boy, Clinton is horrible. Can't she play by the rules. Allies of hers are dropping mailers telling people to vote for her. Obama supporters would never, ever do such a thing.

Oh wait! Allies of Obama are dropping mailers telling people to vote for him. Does that mean Obama is horrible and can't play by the rules. Oh, silly me. This has to be OK because it is Obama.

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They, Obama and Hillary, both make me sick.

But, you have to admit that Hillary is a worse liar than Bill. I mean, she did it so boldy and with such audacity. Atleast Bill fessed up to his big lie. I just don't think good ol' Hillary will. Can you believe she is not even in the White House and she's already started a gate? "FLORIDAGATE"
Hillary, Hillary,Hillary....shame, shame,shame.

As for Obama, I'm still waiting for him to tell me something else besides hope and change.
I guess it's easier not to lie when you really don't say anything concrete and keep your speeches in the feel good abstract.
Come on Obama,
Please tell me not just that your going to bring the troops home but WHEN and HOW?.......you are running for president you know.

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Michael Savage is number 1 in his time slots on both coast's. That menas there is still hope for America :) Go Savage. Find him on your radio tonight :)

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Everyone has to check out the article “White Voters with a Side of Hispanics” on the blogzine Savage Politics. This is an awesome discussion and analysis on the current Democrat and GOP candidates and their eligibility.

www.savagepolitics.com
Here is an excerpt: “Tuesday night’s Florida Primary was a very important episode in the drama in which both the Republican and Democrat Parties are unfolding towards the Presidency of the United States. It also dramatically demonstrated the incredible bias that the Media continues to display towards the Democratic hopeful Barack Obama, in spite of all the evidence pointing to his lack of viability. From MSNBC’s Chris Mathews, who openly stated the day before that any Network that decided to report on the Democratic voting results in Florida was proving a “gross” favoritism for Hillary (ironically enough his Network ended up having to cover it nevertheless), to CNN’s pundits, who continuously utilized the exact same rhetoric that the Obama Campaign was spewing to excuse their defeat (”Beauty Pageant” was their favorite phrase, with all the sexist connotations it implies). All the same, the Florida results in the Democratic side were overwhelmingly favorable to Hillary Clinton, who won a 50% margin, to Obama’s 33%, Edwards’ 14%, and Gravel’s 1%. On the Republican side, it was John McCain who came out victorious with a 36% margin, to Romney’s 31%, Giuliani’s 15%, Huckabee’s 14%, and Paul’s 3%. Let’s discuss each Party’s results and their realistic consequence.
First, we have the very significant victory of John McCain. His candidacy was, from the very start, labeled as a failure due to his unpopularity amongst most “base” Republicans, much of it owed to McCain’s overwhelmingly dubious record on Conservative issues. His notorious tendency to side with multiple (highly despised) Democrats on issues like Immigration, Bush’s Tax Cuts and other measures, have always been enough to marginalize him from even the “moderate wing” within his Party. Still, when the Florida Exit Polls are analyzed, they reflect many unexpected re-alignments in his favor. Evangelical/Born Again Christians voted for John McCain in a 30% margin, in comparison to both Romney’s and Huckabee’s 29%. This may seem like an insignificant difference, but when you also consider that the majority of non-Evangelicals (Catholics, Atheist, etc.) also…” Find the rest of the article at http://savagepolitics.com/?p=64

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Everyone has to check out the article “White Voters with a Side of Hispanics” on the blogzine Savage Politics. This is an awesome discussion and analysis on the current Democrat and GOP candidates and their eligibility.

www.savagepolitics.com
Here is an excerpt: “Tuesday night’s Florida Primary was a very important episode in the drama in which both the Republican and Democrat Parties are unfolding towards the Presidency of the United States. It also dramatically demonstrated the incredible bias that the Media continues to display towards the Democratic hopeful Barack Obama, in spite of all the evidence pointing to his lack of viability. From MSNBC’s Chris Mathews, who openly stated the day before that any Network that decided to report on the Democratic voting results in Florida was proving a “gross” favoritism for Hillary (ironically enough his Network ended up having to cover it nevertheless), to CNN’s pundits, who continuously utilized the exact same rhetoric that the Obama Campaign was spewing to excuse their defeat (”Beauty Pageant” was their favorite phrase, with all the sexist connotations it implies). All the same, the Florida results in the Democratic side were overwhelmingly favorable to Hillary Clinton, who won a 50% margin, to Obama’s 33%, Edwards’ 14%, and Gravel’s 1%. On the Republican side, it was John McCain who came out victorious with a 36% margin, to Romney’s 31%, Giuliani’s 15%, Huckabee’s 14%, and Paul’s 3%. Let’s discuss each Party’s results and their realistic consequence.
First, we have the very significant victory of John McCain. His candidacy was, from the very start, labeled as a failure due to his unpopularity amongst most “base” Republicans, much of it owed to McCain’s overwhelmingly dubious record on Conservative issues. His notorious tendency to side with multiple (highly despised) Democrats on issues like Immigration, Bush’s Tax Cuts and other measures, have always been enough to marginalize him from even the “moderate wing” within his Party. Still, when the Florida Exit Polls are analyzed, they reflect many unexpected re-alignments in his favor. Evangelical/Born Again Christians voted for John McCain in a 30% margin, in comparison to both Romney’s and Huckabee’s 29%. This may seem like an insignificant difference, but when you also consider that the majority of non-Evangelicals (Catholics, Atheist, etc.) also…” Find the rest of the article at http://savagepolitics.com/?p=64

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