Final Rasmussen Poll Gives Obama Seven-Point Lead In N.H.

Comments (26)

Helter wrote on January 8, 2008 9:33 AM:

Looks right. Hillary probably has a floor of 29-30% percent in a bunch of primaries.

zonk wrote on January 8, 2008 9:44 AM:

So if we accept the CW that Obama will technically win NH -- what's a "real" or buzz "win"?

8 points?

10 points?

15?

I think I'd put the over/under at 9.

9 points keeps the tsunami a constant. 10 probably gives it a small boost. 15 - I think it becomes unbeatable except by the worst of gaffes.

audit the polls wrote on January 8, 2008 9:45 AM:

If polls were right, we wouldn't need elections. Ignore them.

audit the polls wrote on January 8, 2008 9:46 AM:

How does Rasmussen make money?

grover_rover wrote on January 8, 2008 9:48 AM:

I think given that Clinton painted herself and inevitable for the entire campaign any significant loss (by more than say 2 points or so) is worthy of attention. I'm sure if she gets anything better than Iowa though she will say she is the comeback kid, which won't play so well after she loses SC by a landslide.

Anonymous wrote on January 8, 2008 9:52 AM:

"How does Rasmussen make money?"

Lots and lots of polls and detail that you don't see.

Michael S wrote on January 8, 2008 9:53 AM:

"How does Rasmussen make money?"

Lots of polls and details from polls you don't get to see.

John McCutchen wrote on January 8, 2008 10:11 AM:

Ding dong the witch is dead

If it weren't for polls, Hillary would have been toast long ago

brm wrote on January 8, 2008 10:21 AM:

The NH voters
Will nominate Hillary for Best Actress for her appearance at the Cafe Espresso in Portsmouth
Not many votes for President though
Send her and her bags(with carpet) back to NY
The Bush-Clinton era ends today
CELEBRATE

PHB wrote on January 8, 2008 10:28 AM:

If the result follows this poll it is going to be pushed as a major victory for Hillary, having recovered from being '14 points' behind.

Much more significant than Obama's lead over Clinton is how big Clinton's lead is over Edwards. Edwards has much less cash that the other candidates and he has taken matching funds so he is restricted in his choice of where he spends it. So Edwards needs a strong second in NH to collect the money to be competitive on super Tuesday.

It is somewhat interesting that Richardson is on 8%. I don't think that its enough to stay in the race but it may be enough to make his departure actually mean something. The departure of Hunter, Gravel or Kucinich would have no impact on the race whatsoever. But the departure of a ten percenter like Thompson or Giuliani could be the start of a domino effect in the Republican camp. For the time being the six pack will stick together as all the establishment candidates hope to pick up votes from the others if they leave the race.

steve wrote on January 8, 2008 10:34 AM:

That's it? Seven points? All this talk about landslides and tsunamis and waves and movements ... seven points does not a crushing wave make, folks. If that's what Obama has -- after all the Iowa bounce, the unprecedented media push toward him and against her, the fact that actual DEMOCRATS are nearly outnumbered by others in our own primary thanks to NH's "quirky" system -- well, then this thing is far from over.

Helter wrote on January 8, 2008 10:52 AM:

"All this talk about landslides and tsunamis and waves and movements ... seven points does not a crushing wave make, folks."

Nope, she's not going to be out of it after today. But it still indicates that Hillary can't break 30%, even in a state in which she was leading by a wide margin until recently.

Take it down to S.C., where the african-american community will hand Obama another win. She'll have to depend on spinning Michigan and NV into big wins and providing momentum. Then it's going to be time to see just how solid her lead is in places like Florida and CA.

eric wrote on January 8, 2008 11:07 AM:

John McCutchen wrote on January 8, 2008 10:11 AM:
Ding dong the witch is dead

If it weren't for polls, Hillary would have been toast long ago

Witch? Really classy.

brm wrote on January 8, 2008 11:09 AM:

Will be likely double the 7% from Rasmussen
Independents are breaking for Obama
Everywhere in NH
I live here
You can not imagine how much Hillary is disliked here

And those polls dont show the results of her "tears and fears" campaign of yesterday.

CELEBRATE
The end of the Bush-Clinton era begins today.

audit the polls wrote on January 8, 2008 11:16 AM:

"Lots of polls and details from polls you don't get to see." -MichaelS

How does that become money?

Jaz wrote on January 8, 2008 11:41 AM:

Thank you, Eric.

What is it, exactly, that makes Hillary a "witch"? That comment says more about its author than it does about Hillary. There are people who say-vehemently and emphatically-that they would "never" vote for Hillary, yet they voted for George W. Bush. Twice.

Dems need to stop berating our candidates--and thus providing fodder for the Republicans in the general election. Clinton, Obama, Edwards, or Richardson would be better than any of the Republican candidates. Let's celebrate that in our populist blogs.

Pepp wrote on January 8, 2008 11:43 AM:

And where will those young Independents be come Nov 2008 in Ohio and Fla, let me help you ding dong no where...it is really really sad that Dems appear incapable of getting their heads out of their arse and able to support a strong candidate with a strong personality and do the math thinking who can win States ya know they are still the key not likeability.......how long once Hillary is gone and no longer the whipping girl do you believe Obama or Edwards last or even have anything to discuss, and just wait until the footage of all those debates and Obama Bush like performance are played for the young passionate professional types and they again disappear in those places if they are even there to vote? My guess day 2 after she books or the first Swifty attacks that cant be refuted and in the process the Party again has alienated a large portion of the electorate for an activist agenda the attacks from the fringe on Clinton extreme and ugly she can not bring us to Obama.

Richard L. Adlof wrote on January 8, 2008 11:47 AM:

It becomes $ when corporations and vanity driven wads pay cash to be told what they wants to hear.

brm wrote on January 8, 2008 11:49 AM:

YES
SHE is a witch

OK

Richard L. Adlof wrote on January 8, 2008 11:55 AM:

By inertia alone, CLINTON IS IN through Super Tuesday. By then she'll have enough delegates to pooch the party for not coronating her pasty white arse.

Kefa wrote on January 8, 2008 12:19 PM:

Eric...they have no class. If they (the classless BO people) lead us down this path, I as a lifelong Dem will (if after Feb 5) back the Dem leader. I think it is a setup. I will work hard in my state for him. I , in my heart think we will lose the White House. No vetting, smoke and mirrors.
I hope they...are right and I am wrong.

But until the fight is over it ain't over. HRC will fight until Feb.5.

audit the polls wrote on January 8, 2008 12:22 PM:

"It becomes $ when corporations and vanity driven wads pay cash to be told what they wants to hear." -Richard L. Adlof

Excellent answer! We should believe these polls because...?

S Brennan wrote on January 8, 2008 12:25 PM:

Folks both NH & Iowa have open primaries, that means a lot of Republicans can cross over and vote for Democratic candidates.

For those that remember this has hurt the Dem party in the past, top Republicans are singling to vote for Obama, so I expect to see Obama beat the polls in NH due to an influx of pachyderms.

heretic wrote on January 8, 2008 12:33 PM:

Something I was unaware of is that all democratic primaries distribute their delgates proportionally. Its not a winner take system. Obama's victories in small states do not mean a lot in delegate counts. For example, Hillary will get almost as many delgates in IA as Obama (last I heard it was predicted 16 to 15). She already has most of the superdelegates, so even after Obama wins NH and SC, she will probably still be in the lead. I believe she is still running in FL and MI, even though the others have officially taken themselves off the ballot in MI. (Florida law does not allow candidates to remove themselves from the ballot unless they drop out of the race). So, she still stands to "win" those races and they may end up counting in the end. But anyway you slice it, come super Tuesday, the worst it will be for Hillary in delegate count is a dead heat. So, while it looks like Obama has momentum now, there is a big enough gap between SC and super Tuesday for things to shift again. Early this morning, suffering from insomnia, I said it looks like its over. But, I think that might be premature still. Nevertheless, it is time to resign ourselves to vote for the nominee, and instates where there is no real competition, consider voting in the republican primaries to make sure they have either the least viable or least objectionable candidate. That is probably what I would do if I lived in SC. Since Hillary seems likely to lose big there and I won't vote for Obama, my vote won't matter there. But I could help put that loser Huck over the top.

heretic wrote on January 8, 2008 12:36 PM:

To clarify a point, I actually live in GA. What I was saying above should have been phrased in terms of what I might do if the same percentages hold down here when the time comes. Obviously, I can't have any effect at all in SC.

Greg DeLassus wrote on January 8, 2008 12:43 PM:

Seeing as Heretic just mentioned the superdelegates, allow me to list off the polls that I would like to see:

1) What is going on in NV? Nobody has polled there since the beginning of Dec and they vote before SC, which everyone is polling right now.

2) What is going on among the superdelegates? As of a month and something ago the majority of them were undecided. Have any of them made up their minds? Have any of the Dodd or Biden folks shifted? Have any of the Clinton or Obama folks shifted?

3) What is going on in FL? I gather that the word is that their delegates will be seated, so this race is presumably important but there is no new info from there for several weeks now.

4) What is going on in MO? It is my home, and I would like to know.

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