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Dem Pollster: Romney Up By Seven In Florida
A new survey from Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling gives Mitt Romney a big lead over John McCain, and clear momentum. Here are the numbers, compared to their last poll from five days ago:
Romney 35% (+7)
McCain 28% (+3)
Huckabee 13% (-2)
Giuliani 12% (-7)
Paul 5% (+0)
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Uh huh? This poll and $2.50 together will buy you a cup of coffee. It will be interesting to see who wins tomorrow. Here's hoping for a big Romney blow-out.
January 28, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg D-
Most polls show Romney gaining or accelerating past McCain. that, combined with the radio wingnut attacks against McCain, I feel, will propel Romney to win.
Romney by 5, is the outta my ass estimate. I'm also seeing Kevin Drum's point of view on McCain, as well. I think I want McCain to get the Repub nomination....
January 28, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hooray, MITT! Way to spend down your bank account! Go Mitt, go Mitt, go Mitt! Mittens by ten!
January 28, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dear Angry Vet,
Call me crazy, but I still think that McCain would be harder to beat than Romney. One way or another, however, the best thing for us is that whomever should end up winning the GOP nod should first receive a prolonged drubbing before getting it. McCain-NH, Romney-MI, McCain-SC, Romney-FL, etc would keep the two of them at blows so that the eventual nominee will arrive as damaged goods. McCain-FL, however, would leave McCain so well positioned that it might take the fight out of Romney.
January 28, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I wonder about Mitt. He might actually be more electable then "10,000 years in Iraq" and "more wars" McCain.
January 28, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Most polls show Romney gaining or accelerating past McCain. that, combined with the radio wingnut attacks against McCain, I feel, will propel Romney to win.
Romney by 5, is the outta my ass estimate. I'm also seeing Kevin Drum's point of view on McCain, as well. I think I want McCain to get the Repub nomination...."
You're actually incorrect on the momentum. Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, and Zogby have all shown McCain getting momentum.
January 28, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Call me crazy, but I still think that McCain would be harder to beat than Romney. One way or another, however, the best thing for us is that whomever should end up winning the GOP nod should first receive a prolonged drubbing before getting it. McCain-NH, Romney-MI, McCain-SC, Romney-FL, etc would keep the two of them at blows so that the eventual nominee will arrive as damaged goods. McCain-FL, however, would leave McCain so well positioned that it might take the fight out of Romney."
Interesting what your hoping for is exactly what's been happening on the Democratic side. There's a good chance that Hillary and Obama are making themselves increasingly unelectable in this grubby campaign.
January 28, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dear Steve in SC,
Indeed, I had noticed that. It is regrettable, but I am not sure what can be done to stop either side from self-destruction.
January 28, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
You folk realize that you are arguing whether the guy who lies with greater ease than he breaths and the guy who sold his integrity and soul to play kissy-face with asshole who raped him four years ago would be more the electable candidate, right?
January 28, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg D-
Yeah, definitely. We need this to go on as long as possible.
As for the Dems self-destructing, i don't think anything that has been said, at this point, cannot be taken back and rebuilt. Remember, we have a huge amount of Bush-hating out there in the US that the Dem field (and any Dem candidate) can take advantage of.
And HRC, as nominee, can heal wounds inflicted by SC tactics.
As for BO, I don't see any serious damage yet. Everything that has come out there about him (not present votes, Rezko, anything else that can be smeared on him) was out there on the Internets anyway.
Hell, i had the oppo on him via google search as early as 10 months ago.
As for the Repugs-
Mitt Romney has flipped his ideas so many times in the course of this campaign, I have no idea what he actually stands for. And his support amongst the Repug faithful (like Limbaugh) is tepid at best.
McCain- "More wars. (see HuffPo)" "Bomb bomb bomb Iran." "In Iraq for 100 years." This guy is a walking, talking Dem attack ad.
January 28, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
RLA-
My point exactly.
I think I could act as Comm Director for Nader, and beat the crap outta those guys. Or maybe Carter....
This is no time to lose the faith. I am sure our African-American, Latino, Feminist, Homosexual, and Liberal (all colors) friends would have no problem voting Democratic, no matter who the nominee.
And you'll be sure to see the loser(s) of this dem race out on the stump for the victor. I guarantee it. The big battle is still in everyone's minds.
Which is why I take the media narrative that HRC/WJC is "hurting the dems" as completely full of shit. Prove it.
January 28, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROMNIFICENT! In November's battle of sure losers, one must win -- and even Hillary will beat this jackass. McCain must be stopped and who better than Willard!
January 28, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gosh, I am not so sure about that. I would not surprised in the least if she has not left a sour-enough taste in the mouths of a lot of black voters that they might just stay home in November. I hope you are right, but I feel somewhat uneasy endorsing that claim.
January 28, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Time heals all wounds, my friends. After the nomination, the traditional democratic base will coalesce.
Of course, I also believe that HRC's coalition is fundamentally weaker than Obama's. I guess the difference in my mind is:
HRC as Dem-nominee- 52-48 victory, little coattail effect in "red states." She'll get everyone who traditionally votes democratic and little more.
vs.
BHO as Dem-nominee- Landslide victory, 55-45 (or better) victory, huge coattail effect. Also, BHO would contest all states along the lines of Dean's "50 State" strategy.
Yeah, BHO would have haters too. But, so what? Kids will come out for him in DROVES! He's the only one who's been able to mobilize the youngin's in DECADES.
January 28, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an Obama supporter I would be absolutely thrilled to bits if it were Mitt "No, I'm A Conservative, Really I Am" Romney versus Barack this fall.
He's looking more like the Republican John Kerry everyday. I think Obama would make mincemeat of him. Hillary however might have to actually work for it.
January 28, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please explain why anyone would vote democrat? I still don't get it. Do you want to pay more taxes? If so just pay more now. The IRS will be happy to take your extra money. I, however, do not wish to pay MORE money to the government. So the only choice is a republican and Romeny specifically. The rest of you must like havng less money.
January 28, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
hey Dave, I pay more in taxes since republicans took over than i did under Clinton
in my state of FL i pay 100% more in property taxes thanks to the republicans screwing up this states tax system
you are DEAD WRONG about taxes.. but i dont blame you for falling for that same crap over and over again.
dems want LOWER taxes for middle and working class. the only people whose taxes will go up are the ones in the top 1% which are mostly CEO's who screw shareholders and consumers
January 28, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's tricky about Romney is that the vast majority of the electorate are Low or No information voters. And so after the Convention, if Romney is the Nominee, he will then craft a whole new persona and slate of positions to fit the general election, and in particular what's happening in the economy at the time. Romney has taken the the wisdom of P.T. Barnum to heart. And it's something Democrats and Independents who intend to vote DEM this year should keep in mind.
January 28, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just picking up on Greg's remarks here and in another thread.
Call me crazy, but I still think that McCain would be harder to beat than Romney.
I think that view is the correct default position to hold, until something changes. But it's close. The data trail behind McCain shows he is winning in many of the same counties that Obama did well, in addition to the independent factor. That said, if McCain increases his energy level I think he remains harder to beat. But if his verbal presentation continues to be shaky, then, I think Mitt becomes a greater threat to the DEM.
Meanwhile, if you look at DEM polling nationally, I think we will see the coming update to the below chart show a strong advance in the Obama upsurge.
http://www.pollster.com/US2TopzDems.png
January 28, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
PPP was the only polling firm even close in SC Dem primary. I'm inclined to go with their numbers on the Florida primary.
January 29, 2008 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink