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CNN's Post-Iowa Poll: Obama And Hillary Tied In New Hampshire
The new CNN poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire after the Iowa caucuses, gives the smallest movement for Barack Obama out of any post-Iowa poll so far — it has him tied with Hillary Clinton, with no statistically significant changes at all.
Here are the numbers, compared to their last poll released only three days ago:
Obama 33% (+3)
Clinton 33% (-1)
Edwards 20% (+3)
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January 5, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Car Dealer --
You're in the wrong place. If you're looking for a used car dealer, try the Republican Party.
January 5, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once again Eric is busy narrowing the field.
January 5, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
...and seriously...these polls are all over the frickin' place today...two show Obama up by 10 points; CNN shows a tie. Love to see somebody who's knowledgeable dissect the internals. Actually, could do it myself, but I don't have time.
January 5, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cue dcs and colon -- they've been curiously quiet as of late. Wonder why?
January 5, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ice-Jusice
There are no internals. They basically support the one's who pay them.
January 5, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone know if this CNN-UNH poll is of registered Dems only, or does it include independents as well? Because if it's only D's, Obama's going to KILL!
January 5, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Organizer,
It obviously also includes independents. What kind of NH poll would only include registered Democrats? CNN/WMUR with UNH are the most reputed NH pollsters.
And the Research 2000/Concord Monitor poll also just released has an even smaller Obama bounce, only 1%.
January 5, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
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January 5, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand why all of these NH people would suddenly change their minds because the Iowa Democratic bosses went for Obama. Did they really not care in the first place, or is this a media script?
January 5, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Penn should be fired now by clinton. It would send a message that the campaign that was being run was not really her, but penn. As everyone I am sure knows, I am not a clinton fan, but her campaign strategy was absolutely awful. She demeaned every demographic, including women, with the inevitability garbage and then running as a psuedo-incumbent in a huge change election was just plain stupid. Again, I don't like her, but her campaign strategy, if you want to call it that, just alienated people more than anything else.
On another point, talking heads on msnbc had a really telling observation. Clinton's time was in 04. She is running her campaign now as if its 04. Her time has passed. Now people don't want a little change or to relive the 90's, they want radical shake up the system change. We need to do something and the status quo doesn't cut it. That's why obama fits the electorate now and will be unstoppable, absent a major screw-up, which is doubtful. The time is now for obama and he sees it and is running with it. That's the sign of a great leader with good judgment.
I just hope he picks webb as his running mate.
January 5, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe Obama can sell the bus he ran over the rest of the field with to used car dealer when he's done with it.
January 5, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric
There are more than a few levels on which what has happened in Iowa -- and its carryover -- is the Clintons' worst nightmare. The shining aspect of the Clintons' politics has always been their understanding of the tragedy of race in America. Each has spoken eloquently -- publicly and privately -- of the day when a black candidate for president would capture the imagination of the country, and be elected.
But never did the Clintons anticipate that it might occur on Hillary's watch as a candidate for president herself, in opposition to them.
Carl Bernstein, HillShill (ret)
Eric ...FREE do-over for you
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January 5, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The numbers are all over the place because some polls still include polling data from a day or more before Iowa. Other polls capturing more post-Iowa time are showing the bigger bounce. I can imagine we'll see this data converge by Monday. Combine this with the reports from the ground, and it spells a big Obama victory on Tuesday.
January 5, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are a lot of reasons people might change their minds.
For one thing, Obama has had higher favorable ratings and net favorable/unfavorable ratings in NH than Hillary for months (long considered a "leading" indicator among pollsters), meaning there are a lot of people in NH that would certainly be very happy to see him be the nominee.
But they may have had concerns. Will white people (or "other" white people, as the case may be) vote for him? Is he a good campaigner (we know the Clintons can win, right?). Should I bother coming out for him if he's not gonna win (look at the national polls)?
But he wins Iowa, and erases all those doubts. It gets people excited. People who were on the fence say, 'yeah, I like that guy, I'm gonna vote for him'
On top of that, he gets to give a victory speech, which was electric, and that getting played on national TV on every major news network...that's publicity you can't buy.
And he gets all the glowing media coverage describing how he impressive turned out all the independents and republicans, which certainly appeal to pragmatic-minded Dems who would love to see the party swell its ranks.
And its not like he was flat in NH either...look at the graphs on the right: he's been rising pretty steadily in NH for a while now anyway. All this did was accelerate his rise
January 5, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen's *national* polls for today show Edwards breaking into the 20s for the first time ever.
Clinton 38
Obama 25
Edwards 20
Not sure how to explain that.
January 5, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
All three polled undeclareds as well as registered Dems.
The allegedly "most reputed" CNN pollster's sample size among likely Democratic voters is 359 with a margin of error of 5%. Confidence interval unstated, but I'd presume it's 95%. Obama now tied with Hillary and up 3 since 12/27. Large increases in electability and favorability ratings.
ARG, n=600 (likely Democratic voters) and a margin of error of 4% at 95% confidence interval. Obama +12 over Hillary and +7 since 1/3.
Rasmussen polled 510 LDV's, 4.5% MOI and 95% CI. Obama +10 over Hillary and up 9 since 12/19.
Within the margins of error, these three are not really inconsistent. The smaller sample size of the CNN poll alone makes it's number the most suspect. It's also not beyond the realm of possibility that whatever caused the house effect in ARG polling that used to favor Hillary simply favors front runners in general and that that is inflating the ARG number.
Or, alternately, some or all of everything I said in the preceding paragraph could be total crap. That's the glorious about MOI's and confidence intervals.
January 5, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
...should've mentioned that it's 4-day rolling poll with 3 of the 4 days pre-Iowa.
January 5, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Michael A,
The "pseudo-incumbent" bit was Obama's attack, not Hillary's line, and the "inevitable" tag was from Ben Smith at Politico. And then the "her time was 2004" bit - just as much crap as Obama needs to wait. A candidate's ready when they get the votes.
But anyway, glad you've stopped calling Hillary "inevitable" and started calling Obama "unstoppable". We'll see how well he holds up with higher expectations and a 90,000 vote victory behind him.
January 5, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
NTurn out the lights, Hillaryland, and don't let the door kick you on the way out.
January 5, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
The one silver lining for HIllary after losing NH will be Marc Penn's very visible firing. What an ignorant, lying and nasty piece of shit. He knowingly spun the DMR poll as flawed when he knew all along that it was right,
My bet is that Carville and Begala will be brought in for one last shot. But alas, too little too late. You can't put lipstick on a pig. America wants change and leadership and Hillary offers neither.
January 5, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where's Greg Sargent on this thread?
January 5, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry desider. We have been sparring for a while and I have been sparring with clinton people on this site since august. I know what I saw and read. Inevitable was the clinton campaign strategy, from penn. Go back and read the exchanges if you want. Not once was it a policy discussion or experience or anything other than here are the poll numbers, accept it. Otherwise you are a left-wing, wacko, lunatic, naderite.
Now, its coming back to bite them in the butt. Again, I am not a fan, but I am kind of pissed about the garbage for so long. I actually have some sympathy for your candidate. I think she got horrible advice. I think that she has been asked to do things that she really doesn't want to do. For what its worth, the kindergarten garbage really sticks out in my mind and radically changed my opinion of her. I saw her try to do it and she wasn't into it and she thought it was petty, which it was, but she did it because penn, or some other moron, told her this was the way to go. She should have stuck with who she is and said no, but she didn't.
Anyway, nothing is a given and we shall see. However, in my lifetime I have never seen what is going on and I think it is incredible. Regardless of who wins, I just want people to be active and get involved in politics. It's so gd important for everyone. I was astounded and estatic about the number of people who turned out in iowa, especially kids. What a great day for america and democracy, regardless of the result for whatever candidate. Kids actively involved in electing the president in iowa. Astounding.
January 5, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anybody know what the first choice totals were in Iowa? Before the pressure was applied and the second and third choices happened.
January 5, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
kucinich for prez wrote on January 5, 2008 7:45 PM:
Does anybody know what the first choice totals were in Iowa? Before the pressure was applied and the second and third choices happened.
--- I'm not saying this with any pride but had there were no such stupid 2nd choice option, obama would still ahve finished first, Hillary would have finished ahead of Edwards, given Edwards were the preferred 2nd choice. since Obama was preferred by more people as 2nd choice than clinton, the margin between Obamer and Hillary would be smaller as well. That's fact, folks!
January 5, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary keeps repeating that she is the one that can bring about change because she has worked hard at it for more than thirty years. Here is my question: If you have not been able to bring about change in over thirty years on the job, doesn't that mean that you are not able to get it done?
You had eight years in the White House with Bill, and you did not get it done then, and your screw up set back Health Care reform by about twenty years.
Sorry Hillary,
You are not entitled to take a thirty year mulligan.
Time to step aside, and let someone else take over.
January 5, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
The reason there was not as large a bounce in this poll is that some indies are moving to vote in the republican primary. Obama has gotten a bounce among dems but has lost some on the indie movement to mccain. In the interals the indies that are going to vote in the dem primary went from 63% on the last poll taken 12/27-12/30 to 56% on this current poll taken 1/4-1/5. The NH papers have run many pieces on the need for NH to stop rommney right there in NH. The independant voting in on question 2 in the internals. http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/01/05/top10.pdf
January 5, 2008 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
The significance of the CNN/WMUR poll is the internal question re electability.
In the last poll -- which concluded on 30 December -- Clinton had a solid 2-to-1 electability edge on Obama. Asked which candidate was the most electable, 45% said Clinton and 22% said Obama.
In this poll -- post-Iowa -- Clinton has dropped 9 points to 36% and Obama has gained 13 points to 35%.
So Obama has completely closed the electability gap.
I'd call that a bounce -- wouldn't you?
January 5, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Liam wrote on January 5, 2008 8:21 PM:
Hillary keeps repeating that she is the one that can bring about change because she has worked hard at it for more than thirty years. Here is my question: If you have not been able to bring about change in over thirty years on the job, doesn't that mean that you are not able to get it done?
--- Are you serious? Do you expect them to accomplish everything in eight short years?
Rudy is making a good point -- change can be for good or for bad. Just be careful for getting what you wish for.
January 5, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think first-choice totals even make it out of the precincts. It's only the second-choice totals and their resultant delegate totals that get reported to the state party, and the party in turn only makes public the delegate totals.
January 5, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
As long as Hillary is not the dem nominee, I will be happy!
January 5, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
In 2012, we've got to try changing the order. Iowa's Democratic machine is too entrenched. And this goofy caucus system? 'Viable' candidates only? There's no major cities, no suburbs, no minorities, no mass transit. Some else please, since our idiotic media assigns the first state so much importance.
January 5, 2008 10:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think a lot of the apparent disagreement within the first round of post-Iowa polls is that they are all quickie polls taken over one or two days (by necessity, of course). I gather most pollsters prefer three or four day polls, and we should be getting a lot of those Monday or so.
January 6, 2008 12:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama won tonight, and I believe the indies in NH will swing for him in the primary, but McCain shouldn't sweat it--after his humorous and angst riddled exchange with Romney, with the help of the other republican rivals, Romney is no longer a serious contender, even with the WY caucus win under his belt.
Although Penn is part of Clinton's demise, I don't blame him for his plans. The Clinton's and her advisor's were reacting to what they saw happen to Kerry in 04'. They underestimated how fractured the republican base would be, and negated the power of the post-baby boom voters. Even the media doubted that young voters would go out to the polls for a caucus. You can't poll for these expectations by simply calling people with analogue phones. Even when the DMR presented their projections they were rejected, they were chastised by the major media pundits and other campaigns. (It was great seeing the pundits respond with detached surprise with the turnout.)
Edwards helped himself and Obama immensely. If Edwards hadn't defended Obama when Clinton started her 9:34 attack, Obama would have been in a shouting match with Clinton, only damaging his apparent resolve.
I know you HRC supporters believe the resentment towards Clinton is unfounded (I agree), but presently, liberal voters are afraid of her being "re-vetted" by the RNC and the media than her. Obama will be vetted, but the public reaction will be more cynical when it comes from the media and the RNC.
Prediction in NH primary:
1 Obama
2 Edwards
3 Clinton
4 Richardson
January 6, 2008 12:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
White people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate haven't voted with the Dems since the 80's.
Courting white evangelicals hasn't helped the RNC, either. After all of that BS religious war rhetoric from Hannity and O'Reilly, now they've created a monster: Huckabee. And it's hilarious to see Faux News dismiss the importance of faith and the evangelical vote.
You made your deathbed repubs.
January 6, 2008 12:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
People in this country are weary, disgusted and desperate to hear someone say in a confident voice that we can be a united country capable of greatness. That's why Obama bounced and Clinton hit the pavement. He articulated that possibility for people and it felt good for them to even consider believing again. Hillary has dreamed that dream; nobody can spend the years she has in the service of her country without believing that in her heart. The difference is that she has been through so much, she's forgotten how to articulate it. She just seems to be hitting bulleted talking points. She should have come into NH saying about Obama -- "Nice job, kid. Thanks for the reminder about the big picture, how good things can be." And then she should have launched into her vision for the future, while reminding everyone that she can, as she insists, weather any kind of hateful crap the hatemongers dish out. Not that I mind her slipping out of this thing leaving room for Edwards and Obama. Oh, and NCSteve, thanks for breaking down those poll numbers.
January 6, 2008 1:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
That 'bring us all together' crap that Obama keeps singing is meaningless and tired. Bush said it. SR, and Jr. They all say it. I want to hear some specifics.
January 6, 2008 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, all three polls largely agree for the kind of information you can get from a tracking poll ... all show Obama getting a plus bounce, Edwards getting a bounce, Clinton sliding. The magnitudes all vary.
Don't focus on the "leads", and whether those agree, and for goodness sake do not try to track the changes in the "leads". For tracking polls, they'll be all over the place, because leads have margins of error on both sides, so the change in the lead will involve four margins of error. And between different polls, LV screens will be different.
Instead, focus on the difference from the prior poll to the current ... since that is the same poll, it is the same LV screen.
We know that post-IA, Obama is either up modestly or strongly, Edwards is up moderately or strongly, and Clinton is from static to down strongly. Whether Clinton is in striking distance for Edwards ... hell, that's why they go ahead and have the primary.
January 6, 2008 3:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
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January 6, 2008 3:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Democratic primary voters are just stupid people. Iowa goes first every year and they have picked losers every time (except Carter in '76, though he cam in 8-10 points behind someone named "uncommitted." Then, voters in the next round decide that because someone they were on the fence about did well in IA, maybe they should throw him their vote. Before you know it, the Dems have picked another GE loser and we are saddled with a republican once again. The biggest success story for the Dems in modern history was Clinton's huge loss in IA (where he got 3%), which was followed by a modest second place victory in NH and then a major rout in SC.
Hopefully, the people of the great state of NH will not buckle to the media hype from know-nothing pundits this time. Or perhaps this is classic MSM. MSM is, as we know, overwhelmingly owned by Repugs. So what a surprise that every four years, they hype the loser picked by the idiot Iowans—sorry, but you clearly are idiots with your 100% loser track record. Then, that loser goes on to be trounced in the GE. Afterwards, all is good in the executive suites for at least another four. I think this particularly since Carter got his almost-win in IA back in '76. Because of what happened to interest rates back then, he will absolutely be the last true progressive we ever see in the white house. So, NH voters, please take a deep breath. Do want your ideal candidate in the fall (though I am at a loss to understand why anyone would actually like Obama) or someone who can actually win?
Don't be deluded by the early polls showing Obama beating all the repubs? He is going to be swiftboated in a way that will make what they did to Kerry look like those folks were his supporters. Its already started, with the innuendos about drugs and being a radical muslim. I would have thought that the muslim issue had been put to bed, but I was out the other night and this 54 year-old guy I see on a regular basis—usually a reasonable moderate indie/republican—told me about an email he had received. He said in all earnestness that Barack Osama (that's what he called Obama) was raised by his father to be a radical muslim. Sure, 47% of the country won't vote for Hillary, but she only needs 51%. The question is when push comes to shove will Obama be able to mollify the braindead and easily scared US populace. History says no.
January 6, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
HRC has not yet begun to fight.
January 6, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone catch the "Matthews Meter" poll this morning on the Chris Matthews Show? All 12 of Matthews regulars said Obama will get the Dem nomination (12-0!).
More interestingly, Pat Healy said there is some thinking in Hillaryland that she better not go too far in attacking Obama so as to make her too toxic and ruin her eventual shot at Senate Majority leader. Amazing what a difference a week makes.
Prediction: Marc Penn is visibly canned on Tuesday and Carville and Begala are brought back in (not that it will make a difference). The train has left the station.
January 6, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Matthews Meter?
Listen to him once. He may as well be on the Obama payroll. When he's not bashing HRC as a triangulator and calculating cynic, he's licking Obama's boots and making sure no one on his show asks a fair question of Obama's record.
January 6, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
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January 6, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
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