The big loser this week may prove to be ARG. Their polls have all been outliers and I predict will trash ARG as a pollling organization.

Agreed, ARG better hope for a Hillary landslide.

Looking at the internals, this poll projects that 83% of turnout will be Democrats and only 17% independents (no Republicans). The data isn't that different from other polls which show Clinton leading among Democrats and Obama leading among independents. It is just their turnout model which is different. I think that it is probably fair to say that if only 17% of caucus goers are independents or Republicans, then Clinton has a really good shot. I'm not sure how likely that is at this point.

LOL. I'm surprised this wasn't posted by Greg Sargent.

The only Chicago-style machine out in Iowa is the one behind the guy from Chicago. Just something to think about...

Anonoymous I agree, if Obama wins the Republicans will have a field day. He lacks the experience and thinks being nice will get a vote. He lacks the experience to run this country.

Q-

As does Clinton. On the experience thing, if that's how you decide, you can only go with Richardson, Dodd, or Biden.

Just what experience do any of the top 3 have?

Meanwhile Kos is just blasting Obama at this point.

The reason Americans don't enjoy true universal health care is that they're too dumb or too scared to demand it of their government. A little education and a reduction of the fear factor would go a long way to getting us from here to there ... but we don't get there without popular support. If it was so easy, why hasn't it happened already?

maybe ARG poll has some connection to the clinton campaign. maybe Kos is secretly trying to help Obama with independents and repubs by raging against him. except, while many dislike the far left, too few pay attention to the netroots for its opinions to have any significant affect.

what upprt left said!

After helping Obama to a big win in the mn causus feb, 5th, I' plan to volunteer for the dem challenging my extremely conservative rep in congress. This could be the year to give him the boot and turn Mn back to solid blue.

Let's get real. Iowa is a swing state. It is great for the Democrats to have a nominee who is proven to draw independent and Republican support in such a state. Iowa was really close in 2000 and 2004, so a relatively small numbers of voters could make the difference in 2008. Obama winning and drawing independents and Republicans to the Democratic caucus would be a great outcome for the party.

Those same Republicans who are will vote for BO for one day will flip and vote for the Republican choice on election day and we as a party will lose in 08. It's the old setup but it will not stop HRC from her goal. The gullible must be saved from themselves.

Kefa, I think you take an overly dim view of your fellow citizens. But, since you call it "the old setup", can you tell me when or where this particular "setup" has ever been used before?

I'm not too proud to resist your saving me from myself, but please provide a little more detail before I submit.

Barack Obama is a total idiot?

Yeah, that's what I heard his Harvard profs were saying about him, too. Called him one of the two or three smartest idiots they'd ever taught.

Luckily, he's run a completely idiotic campaign and that's why he looks set to do so well today.

By the way, as a detached observer, if Obama is a total idiot, what does that make the rest of us? In any case, I suppose your name-calling makes you an absolute genius, don't it?

I am so sick and tired of the clinton people claiming "right-wing" talking points all the freaking time. Give it a rest. I will be glad when the primaries are over.

Look, the plain fact is that a good majority of the statements from Obama that people have been decrying as "right wing talking points" were so recognized well before Obama spoke them.

For example, we all knew, once upon a time, that, in today's context, saying that Social Security was in "crisis" was a right wing talking point. We fought vigorously against the media quite explicitly on that very point.

Suddenly, those very words came out of Obama's mouth -- because, of course, it suddenly seemed politically convenient for his own ambition. And, just as suddenly, we had hordes of Obama supporters now saying that those words were now somehow NOT right wing talking points, because St. Obama uttered them.

For those of us who care about progressive policies -- because we care about what's good for real, live people -- Obama's eagerness to take up right wing talking points has been pretty disgusting. There have been so very many of them in the course of his campaign that it's almost impossible now not to conclude that embracing them has been a very clear strategy (no doubt in part because he would entice genuine right wing voters to favor him in the primaries, as seems to be happening in Iowa).

And I personally can't forgive Obama for the damage he has done to a cause I particularly care about -- and which, I'd think, would occupy the center concern of any progressive -- universal health care. His remarks against mandates are going to create real problems for any Democratic candidate who comes to embrace them, because they will be fuel to the right wing Wurlitzer. But the worst fate of all will be if Obama himself should become President. I simply don't see any way the man will be able to press for mandates when his claim of providing "universal" health care is exposed as a sham in implementation. How will he be able suddenly to turn on a dime when the necessity for mandates arises, given his very own words on the matter? He and we will be stuck with a "universal" health care plan that will be a laughingstock because millions upon millions of Americans will be left out of the loop.

Of course, I know that none of that means a damn thing to Obama or you.

But there are those of us who do care, because, for us, politics involves a little more than "inspiration" and Koolness.

Well he was darn sure right about Iraq like most true progessives and anti-war protestors. But that does count either,R-i-g-h-t

Ok, franklyo, the "right-wing talking points" is allegedly ONE, which is social security "in crisis." Sorry I am not right-wing, but I think there is a problem and I think there should be no cap on the tax. I think private accounts are outrageous and a give away to corporations and a right-wing talking point. I don't think that he is advocating that.

On healthcare, he isn't promoting a tax credit to solve the problem. That's a right-wing talking point and a freaking waste of time and money. I don't think mandates are the way to go, that's corporate welfare and a loser in the general election. The plan is single payer, like europe. Noone is advocating that, but I believe that the only one who could pull it off, with enough of a mandate would be obama.

So, as always, the attack has no substance and is just another fallacy in the clinton talking points distributed to staffers, like these new talking points that we have been hearing for a while to attack obama's centrism, quoting chuck todd:

Here's another post-spin to expect from Clinton if Obama wins on the backs of independent and GOP support:

Look for Clinton surrogates to feed the notion that the voice of rank-and-file Democrats is being drowned out by outside influences. The blogs have picked up on this, and despite not being big Clinton fans, one could envision how the campaign could pivot with "We've been in these fights with Democrats in the trenches; it's important for Democrats to have a greater voice" etc.

Something to watch for . . . .

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22476967/

Gee, where have we been hearing that one, and I thought clinton was the centrist. Now her surrogates are trying to make her out to be a flaming liberal and obama is "right-wing." What a joke. I can't wait until the primaries are over.

I think the expectations game going on now *may* help Hillary. If she wins or pulls off a strong second, it does count as victory of sorts. BO & Edwards have been running incredibly negative campaigns and it's amazing that she's held up as well as she has. If BO wins tonight, he'll be like McCain in NH '00. A pyrrhic victory because it will be based on indepedents and Republicans, and there's no chance NH will vote for BO.

Republicans are voting Democrat like crazy in the Iowa caucus, they have been changing parties at record speed. There has been an influx of registrations from Illinois to Iowa also, they only had to wait 30 days after registering. Thousands of these new voters will probably vote in Illinois and Republican in Nov.'08 presidential election.

Obama supporters are all absolutely correct! He is going to win a huge victory tonight. He is going to blow away Clinton by at leats 10 points tonight! In fact he is going to sweep the lobby of his hotel with her. He is that powerful and good. I expect his victory to be so huge that he is going to clinch the nomination tonight and then he is a shoo-in for President. I agree with all of the Obama supporters that it is just a matter of time. And then he is going to transform the politics in this country so much there will be onle one political party, the Obama party, that will exist. All the lobbyists will cease to exist, everyone will have health care, all our enemies will vanish, and it is going to be a golden age. I totally agree with Obama supporters that he has the ability to all this.

In fact, I wish other candidates both Democrat and Republica, would realize all this and just get out of the way and just accept him as their president. I will save all of us a lot of time and resources.

It all starts tonight! I cannot wait for the resurrection!

"why are you clinton people bagging on moderate republicans and independents? It's comical."

It's not comical, it's the DMR poll which shows BO getting independent's votes -- not a majority of Democrats. Keep counting on your victory. We'll see what happens....

annon, obama doesn't have clinton's negatives and bad judgement either, to add to your list. I disagree on your alienation of the middle. You are assuming that the middle is not progressive and I would submit that it is. I would submit that approximately 70% of the country supports the dem agenda. The problem is people don't freaking vote. If you get people motivated, with the likes of a motivator like obama, you could see a landslide. Am I saying that will happen? Nope. But you can be rest assured that there is no way it could possible happen with clinton? You clinton people want to win by a squeaker and real dems want a landslide.

Bluepuppy, I agree "we'll see what happens." It is exciting and we will all know tonight. Who knows what is going to happen. The suspense is incredible.

Michael A: "obama doesn't have clinton's negatives and bad judgement either, to add to your list."

We don't know anything about his judgment, except on Iraq and that is a pretty specious claim since there was absolutely zero political risk to the stand he took and a huge political positive for the very small political area he represented at the time.

As for his negatives, he hasn't been in the public light a significant fraction of the time that Clinton has and given his performance in the debates he'll have plenty of negatives once the general election comes around - if he makes it that far.

I'm still waiting for you to link to proof that Penn specifically stated that Clinton's nomination was/is inevitable . . .

I'm also still waiting for you or Liam to point to anything Obama has done (obviously he hasn't been successful) to promote compromise or build consensus on Iraq and Iran in the Senate, much less in the country, thus proving your point that he's a uniter who can bridge the partisan divide on the single most important issue to Obama supporters.

"You clinton people want to win by a squeaker and real dems want a landslide."

No, we simply want to win are unwilling to risk losing in a landslide simply for the longshot possibility of winning in a landslide, something even Bill Clinton never could do and he was twice or thrice the candidate Obama currently is and knew how to play the middle which Obama can't without putting off progressives or rendering them hypocrites.

So, yes, "landslide" is a dream, in my opinion, if you are talking victory for the Democrats and the farther Obama goes to prove himself to progressives (such as on terrorism and the war) the farther he will find himself from moderates on election day and the farther he removes himself from the progressive agenda to appeal to moderates the more he will simply look like Hillary-lite and disillusion the ever-fickle and flighty progressive base which can't stand deviation from their agenda any more than neocon loyalists could from their agenda.

Michael A: "You are assuming that the middle is not progressive and I would submit that it is."

Nader supporters claimed the progressive mantle and I saw no one deny them that claim.

Dean supporters claimed the progressive mantle and I saw no one deny them that claim.

We can see how both did at appealing to moderates - they failed miserably.

You have no evidence to back up your claim that the vast majority of Americans, especially moderates, are progressive, much less that "independents" are.

I have Nader and Dean that says otherwise.

And btw, the "Dem agenda" is the agenda being set by Reid, Pelosi, Clinton, and every other Dem you hate so much, so if the country agrees with that agenda, your theory (and Obama) are toast.

There is a reason Clinton (as well known as she is) leads Obama by double nationally among Democrats and that is because she knows their agenda as a whole and she comports her positions with it - Obama is appealing not to moderate independents, but to progressive independents (e.g., Green Party, etc) who left the Democrats because they hate their moderation, not because they embrace that moderation and if you think that independents = moderates you are sorely out-of-touch with the reality of this country where radicals on both the right and the left are leaving their parties for being to much in the middle.

Independent today means a mix of moderates who hate partisanship from the major parties, but also partisan extremists who can't stand their prior party's perceived lack of fidelity to whichever partisan extreme the "independent" favors.

You are really bitter annon. Your candidate could still win tonight. Why all the animosity?

You want a link on inevitability, here you go. It's a good read by the way.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1399

Otherwise, lighten up. I don't hate anybody, but you clinton people sure do try people's patience. Also, talk about spinning. You are spinning like a top, why not wait to see the results?

While it may be true that Obama isn't getting majority support inside his own party, the qualifier is YET. In a head-to-head contest with Clinton, he will smoke her. It's already obvious that Hillary is the second choice of very few Dems, and once Edwards withdraws, his supporters will flock to Obama in droves. They detest Hillary! It's Hillary who will never get a majority of votes in any of these primaries--well, maybe in New York.

It's also obvious that crossover appeal is highly valuable in November. Obama is actually the only Dem with a shot at beating McCain. What's Hillary going to do, after harping on the importance of "experience" for the past year? Vote for the far more experienced McCain, if he's running against her?

once Edwards withdraws, his supporters will flock to Obama in droves.

Gosh, I would love it were that true, but given the snarky and condescending way that so many of my fellow Obama supporters have behaved towards the good people in Edwards' camp, I guess that I would not count on that. I see little to be gained, for precisely this reason, in trashing Edwards as a means of making Obama look good. Our man is better than that, and we should be too.

Barack Obama wasnt right on Iran, HE DIDN'T EVEN VOTE ON IT! ! !HOW RIGHT CAN HE BE?! YOU OBAMA PEOPLE ARE CLUELESS. . .The reason the republicans are more likely to vote for Barack is so that they can have their REPUBLICAN candidate beat him in the general election. . .if you people are this uninformed and uneducated, then you should stay home on election day. . .

HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT IN 08! ! !The Senator that has actually shown up for her votes! ! !

Greg,

Edwards tends to compete more directly with Clinton than Obama in terms of core demographics I think.

Michael A: "Your candidate could still win tonight."

I hope my candidate does win tonight, but that seems unlikely, since it is neither Clinton nor Obama.

But thanks for again proving my point about how Obama supporters will consistently lie about those who disagree with them, emulating the tactics of Bushiites.

Yeah, I really want to see another 8 years of slimy libeling and slandering poltical acolytes.

bvd: "If Obama is attracting more independents and Republicans then he stands a BETTER chance of winning in the general election."

Yeah, Republicans would never cross over in an election or support a progressive candidate like Nader in order to torpedo a potential Democratic nominee, only to vote Republican in the general election.

You are too, too stupid for words.

Tell you what anon, you have alot of time on your hands. Go back and read the posts on this site from clinton people from around 8/1/07 to I'd say mid-october or thereabouts. I think its pretty clear the campaign's strategy. I'm not going to waste anymore time with you on the inevitablity issue. I saw and heard it a thousand times if not more since last year. If that wasn't penn's strategy, why don't you troll around and find a quote from him prior to october where he categorically denied that that was the campaign strategy.

Otherwise, watch the caucuses tonight and lets see who wins. Hope you are not so bitter tomorrow annon, but I am guessing that you probably will be.

Amen, it's about the future. I will continue support Edwards as long as he's in (hopefully till 01/09), and will work tirelessly for whichever Dem emeges in the general if it's not Edwards, but I will have to hold my nose a bit if it's Obama. And I'm from IL, volunteered for his senate run, and thought I'd be torn btwn him and Edwards. Though maybe if I stop reading the commments on my favorite blogs and listening to Michelle, I'll feel better...