I agree with CalD--that is an odd headline.

In any event, it appears that compared to the last ARG poll, what has happened is that a lot of the undecideds basically just reallocated more or less evenly (undecided went from 9% to 3%).

I will admit to my headline bias.

I love, love, love This Is Spinal Tap.

Besides, a lead of 12 and a lead of 11 are statistically indistinguishable from one another. Obama is sustaining his bounce through this weekend.

I actually wondered if that could be a reference to Spinal Tap. I can well understand the temptation. :)

Eric Kleefeld wrote on January 6, 2008 11:06 PM:

"Obama is sustaining his bounce through this weekend."

--- Don't be so sure! No Sunday samples are included in any of the polls. With clinton's performance last night, undecided may start breaking clinton soon!

No Sunday samples are included in any of the polls. With clinton's performance last night, undecided may start breaking clinton soon!

ARG, CNN/WMUR, and Suffolk all included Sunday samples.

Ni Daye,

I don't actually know when today the data was collected (the poll reports typically just specify dates, not times, and that is what places like RCP and pollster report). But for what it is worth, from what Blumenthal at pollster wrote, apparently Sunday afternoon is a good time for polling (people tend to be at home).

Ni Daye,

The UNH poll said it included surveys taken "between January 5 and 3 p.m. January 6, 2008," which struck me as odd, but nobody asked me. It sounds like it was basically a 24-hour poll, but it would have included at least some people who saw the debate. It would not have included many though because the debate occurred during prime calling hours last night.

It's still to early for people to have consumed and digested much news coverage of the debate though, and the morning after coverage can often matter as much or more than the debate itself since not many people watch the actual debates. Seems like full effects of a debate on public opinion usually take at least a day or two to mature. Also CNN re-aired the debate this evening -- it wrapped up a just few minutes ago -- and it would not surprise me if at least as many people caught it tonight as last night.

It's still to early for people to have consumed and digested much news coverage of the debate though, and the morning after coverage can often matter as much or more than the debate itself since not many people watch the actual debates... [I]t would not surprise me if at least as many people caught it [re-aired on CNN] tonight as last night.

That is a good point. Polls from Monday will be more interesting than polls today (although that would be true even if there had not been a debate, given that the election is Tues). That said, I noticed that the pundits were mostly commenting on the debate as a "victory" for Obama, so one would have to imagine a very discerning and independant minded crowd if one is pegging one's hopes on the idea that the post debate milieu will deflate the post-Iowa bounce. Not impossible, that, but not excessively likely in my humble opinion. I guess we will see tomorrow (and more importantly on Tues).

Angry Vet (formerly known as "M") wrote: "...For arguments sick, "if" Obama won the nomination, would you vote for him in the GE? Would you be tempted by a Bloomberg candidacy? Ni Daye, same question.

You bet your ass I would. I'd probably vote for Mike Gravel before I'd vote for a Republican, but I actually think Barack Obama is a pretty fine man, as politicians go. I may not think he'd make as good a president as Hillary Clinton -- I just don't believe he's quite seasoned enough yet -- and I wouldn't give him quite as long odds of winning the GE as I would her, but I'd consider it an honor and a pleasure to vote for the man if that's how things shake out.

CalD-

That's awesome. i'll stop annoying and pestering you with questions then.

I'll cease and desist with questioning your point of view, because, simply put, we both disagree on a mere value judgment, probably due mainly to our different lives and what we have both been through. Best of luck to your candidate.

I think all of the vitriol out there (including people on the Obama/Edwards side calling Sen. Clinton "Goldwater Girl") are just completely lacking in taste, and may have a tendency in heightening the vitriol and rhetoric of the race, instead of promoting a civil discourse.

Anyway, again, best of luck to you. I note that Clinton gained two points (total) in this poll and leave it be.

All the best to you too, Angry Vet. Catch up with you on the other side.