ARG: McCain Way Ahead In NH
The new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire, conducted entirely after the Iowa Caucus, shows John McCain with a big lead over Mitt Romney. Here are the numbers, compared to ARG's final pre-Iowa poll:
McCain 39% (+4)
Romney 25% (+0)
Huckabee 14% (+2)
Giuliani 7% (-1)
Paul 6% (-3)
These numbers are quite different from the Rasmussen poll, which shows a closer race between McCain and Romney, with Paul in third place. New Hampshire polls are ARG's stock-in-trade, but we'll find out in just a few days who's right.
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I'm telling you, this site is wrong on Guiliani - he's far from done. McCain will win here, and if Fred can win S.C. then there will be no clear front-runner heading into Florida, which couldn't be better tailored to his strategy.
Mitt Romney on the other hand is finished.
January 5, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
DRinOH, I respectfully disagree. Mr. 9/11 is toast, as is mitt the flip. It's shaping up as betweeen mccain and huckabee and the republican leadership is going nuts. Huckabee will win in s.c. and florida. He is leading in florida already and both states have alot of evanglical voters. Also, huckabee is a very good politician. Mr. 9/11 only brings fear to the table and based on huckabee's huge win in iowa, I think people are tired of fear and want a new direction, which huckabee offers for the republican party.
January 5, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Strangly enough, I don't think Mitt is done, even with a loss here. I think enough of the GOP hates and distrusts McCain, especially in the south, that he'll really have to work to prove that he's viable outside of a state like NH. Since 9iulian11 is flolding faster than a lawn chair, and Fred only kinda-sorta wants the job, the role of Huckabee slayer is still open.
Personally, the thought of a brokered convention for the GOP is starting to look pretty real to me right now.
January 5, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Giuliani is not only toast, he's been eaten. He's finished. The Big Mo is going McCain's way.
January 5, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The pundits seem to be foaming at the mouth now for the re-emergence of McCain. If McCain does turn out to be the nominee, the #1 issue will be the War in Iraq once again. I don't see where this is good for the GOP, because the country wants out of Iraq and McCain is as stubborn as Bush regardless of the facts. Everyone thinks McCain is this great military mind. Can someone tell me what being a prisoner of war survivor has to do with military expertise and foreign policy exterpise? I respect his service and sacrifice, but don't believe this gives him exceptional credentials.
January 5, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Folks, being a New Hampshire girl, now living in Joisey, I can tell you this: McCain is big in NH because people there recall him fondly from those early years when he rode around in that bus and made fun of Bush (for good reason)! He's a dinosaur now, though. Whether he wins big in NH now or not, the future is Obama, and NH-ites are going for him...mark my words.
January 5, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rudolph is not going to win Florida. He is a joke. People laugh at him there. Ron Paul might do surprisingly well--his yard signs are everywhere--but not Guliani. He's going to magically win Florida after four straight huge losses? That strategy didn't work for Lieberman in 2004 and it's not going to work for Rudolph now.
January 5, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink