The Clinton campaign apparently understands that they need to shore up some African-American support after Bill Clinton's aggressive campaign rhetoric against Barack Obama in South Carolina — Bill is set to go on a tour of black churches in Los Angeles tomorrow, CNN reports.
"They need to go touch the people like they did before. The bickering they got in in South Carolina must be put aside," said an unnamed elected official who will accompany Bill on the trip, and who described it as a "mea culpa tour." "Bill is going to have to come back among those who loved him and he did so much for. He is going to have to do it – I can't do it for him – and face the voters."'
Los Angeles-based La Opinión, the largest Spanish-language newspaper in the country, has endorsed Barack Obama for president — a development that could give him increased credibility among Hispanic voters in the crucial California primary. Key quote:
We need a leader today that can inspire and unite America again around its greatest possibilities. Barack Obama is the right leader for the time. We know that he is not as well known among our community and while he has the support of Maria Elena Durazo, Senator Gil Cedillo and others he comes to the Latino community with less name recognition. Nevertheless, it is Obama who deserves our support.
It's still highly unlikely that Obama would win the Latino vote in California. But if he keeps Hillary Clinton's margin fairly low, he could make up the difference among white and African-American voters.
The paper also endorsed John McCain in the Republican primary, citing his principled support for immigration reform against the base of his own party.
The Hillary campaign gamely keeps working to dilute the power of Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama, releasing ads featuring her own Kennedy -- i.e., Bobby Jr...
And here's another ad starring Bobby Jr. along with Cesar Chavez's grandson, who reminds viewers of Bobby Sr.'s role in helping farmworkers. Ted's support for Obama could have potency among Latinos, a constituency that is key to a Hillary victory.
According to Ben Smith, the ads will run in California, Arizona and the northeast.
It's a coup for both in a state where on the Dem side Obama is closing on Hillary and on the GOP side McCain is ahead and racking up major endorsements, such as that of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
An Obama presidency would present, as a distinctly American face, a man of African descent, born in the nation's youngest state, with a childhood spent partly in Asia, among Muslims. No public relations campaign could do more than Obama's mere presence in the White House to defuse anti-American passion around the world, nor could any political experience surpass Obama's life story in preparing a president to understand the American character. His candidacy offers Democrats the best hope of leading America into the future, and gives Californians the opportunity to cast their most exciting and consequential ballot in a generation.
In the language of metaphor, Clinton is an essay, solid and reasoned; Obama is a poem, lyric and filled with possibility. Clinton would be a valuable and competent executive, but Obama matches her in substance and adds something that the nation has been missing far too long -- a sense of aspiration.
Yesterday we brought you a roundup of Super Tuesday polls for the Democratic primaries. Today, we bring you the same for the Republicans.
The bottom line: John McCain has it made.
He leads in nearly every state, with Romney only having clear advantages in Massachusetts, Colorado and of course Utah. Huckabee runs well in some Southern states, but even then he'll probably lose a bunch to McCain. Compounding the trend for McCain, Rudy's former support will probably go almost entirely to him.
A complication: Republican primaries don't use uniform rules of delegate apportionment, like the Democrats do. Quite a few contests are winner-take-all, but many others are not. They do not use a proportional system, but instead distribute delegates by district (usually the same as House districts) and then accord all the district's delegates to the plurality winner.
What does that mean for the race? The Northeast — where McCain is strongest — is mostly winner-take-all. And where Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee do manage some strength, it's often in states that distribute delegates either by district or even proportionally, meaning that the map alone gives McCain a big advantage.
In short, expect McCain to rack up a lot of delegates on Tuesday. He won't clinch the nomination outright, but he may build up an advantage so large that his nomination becomes a foregone conclusion.
Check out our poll chart and further analysis after the jump.
Josh Green of The Atlantic has gotten folks in political circles talking with this fun piece suggesting that if Al Gore wants any presidential endorsement to have maximum impact, he'll have to do it before Feb. 5th:
Ted Kennedy’s endorsement Monday had the feel of history about it. Even conservatives swooned. Only one endorsement could be bigger -- and if Al Gore is going to pull the trigger, you have to think he’ll do so in the next 72 hours...an announcement would be earthshaking and guaranteed to dominate the airwaves until the February 5 primaries.
I checked in with a source close to Gore for a response to the piece. Asked if there was any shot at a pre-Feb. 5th endorsement, the source said: "He has no plans to endorse in the near term."
Not a flat-out denial, but it's probably not going to happen.
Today's Gallup tracking poll shows that the national race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is tighter than ever before. Here are the numbers for today, compared to yesterday's:
It's worth noting that in recent days Barack Obama has been subtly broadening his case that his opposition to the war and his background are political and foreign policy attributes in various ways.
The other day, for instance, he placed it in the context of an electability argument, saying that his early war opposition enabled him to provide a clearer contrast with John McCain in a general election. Yesterday at the debate he said he wanted to change the "mindset" that led us into war in the first place.
And at a presser today, Obama said that his war opposition, combined with his time growing up in a Muslim country, would give him a unique level of credibility with Muslim leaders. Take a look...
Move On has just announced that its membership voted to endorse Obama -- giving him a good deal of organizational heft on the left and a bit of a bulwark against criticism of his conciliatory, centrist-sounding rhetoric.
What's interesting, though, are the numbers of the vote: Obama trounced Hillary among MoveOn members, 70%-29%.
Even more interesting, a MoveOn spokesperson tells me that roughly 300,000 members voted in the last 24 hours. In 2004, when the group did a similar vote, it took three days to reach that number. And keep in mind that Howard Dean was in the mix that year.
Paul Krugman takes another whack at Obama on health care. He points out that this new mailer dropped by the Obama campaign, which hits Hillary on health care, is subtly playing on "Harry and Louise" imagery, meaning it's reminiscent of the infamous ads attacking Hillarycare. If so, the suggestion is that the mailer is intended as a reminder of her health care debacle.
Click on the images below to enlarge:
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Barack Obama may have raised $32 million in the month of January, but new FEC reports show that Hillary managed to outdo Obama in fundraising during the last quarter of 2007:
Clinton reported raising nearly $27 million in the last three months of 2007. Obama raised $23.5 million during that period.
Hillary also finished out the year with $18 million on hand to Obama's $13 million. The Hillary camp has not released its January totals or said whether they've come close to matching Obama's haul.
Obama's campaign says they filed their FEC report yesterday, but right now, only Hillary's is available on the FEC site.
Late Update: I should have clarified that the figures for cash on hand refer to money available for use in the primaries.
We're taking a step back from our focus on presidential race coverage to bring this piece of news: For the first time ever, Al Franken is ahead of Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) in an opinion poll.
The survey conducted by the University of Minnesota puts Franken at 43% to Coleman's 40%, hardly a good sign for the incumbent. Previous polls all gave Coleman the lead, initially a wide one when Franken declared, but eventually a much narrower one.
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Just how dire was John McCain's financial situation last year, before he vaulted back to frontrunner status? The Washington Post has some details on the $3 million loan that McCain took out in order to finance the campaign, including a rather macabre detail — because McCain pledged his fundraising list as collateral, and he would need to be alive to give the list its full value, he had to take out a special life insurance policy just in case he failed to survive the campaign.
As it turned out, the gamble appears to have paid off. McCain has won the crucial primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, and looks like he's on his way to the nomination. As for the debts — he was $500,000 in the hole even before this loan — he should have no problems raising the money now.
Mitt Romney fourth-quarter fundraising numbers are in, and it's not a pretty picture. The official total raised is a seemingly-impressive $27 million — but $18 million of it came from Mitt himself. Romney ended the year with $9 million cash on hand, meaning that he would have been broke if not for his own contribution.
For this whole cycle, Romney has raised a total of about $53 million from other people, and kicked in $35 million himself. An interesting trend in his campaign has been that as the campaign has gone on longer, the proportion of money raised from others has gone steadily down, while Mitt has come to rely more and more on Tagg's inheritance.
A new Rasmussen poll shows the Democratic race to be tightening somewhat in New Jersey, though Hillary Clinton still has a good-sized lead. Here are the numbers, compared to Rasmussen's own poll from two weeks ago:
Clinton 49% (+4) Obama 37% (+10)
While it is virtually impossible that Hillary Clinton could ever lose this state's primary, being a heavily suburban state right next door to New York, a potentially weak majority would rob her of what was hoped to be a huge delegate advantage.
Hillary is asked the inevitable question about Bill's recent escapades on the campaign trail, and answers:
Both Barack and I have very passionate spouses who promote and defend us at every turn. But the fact is, I'm running for president and this is my campaign...
At the end of the day, it's a lonely job in the White House, and it is the president of the United States who has to make the decisions. And that is what I'm asking to be entrusted to do.
One interesting side-note: Wolf asked Hillary and Obama if they would be open to a joint ticket, and there was a palpable release of tension, both from the candidates and from the audience, which reflects exhaustion with the acrimony in this campaign and a desire for this thing to be over already. Both candidates, mindful of this exhaustion among Dems, murmured positive noises about this possibility. But it would be surprising indeed if it happens.
Obama has been frequently challenged to draw a connection between his early opposition to the war and his current candidacy, and he hasn't always delivered a solid answer. But he certainly boiled it down into one pithy line tonight:
"I don't want to just end the war, but I want to end the mindset that got us into war in the first place."
One thing that the Obama campaign has successfully done in recent days -- with an assist from the Clintons -- is cast his candidacy as the historic one, and Hillary's as the hidebound, reactionary one.
Hillary pushes back on that argument during the debate, telling listeners:
"I think having a woman president would be a huge change for America and the world."
It's an argument that's gotten lost -- again, partly because of the Clintons' missteps in recent days.
Hillary is asked directly by Wolf Blitzer: What exactly is that experience you keep claiming, anyway? It's the question many have been asking. Her full answer, for posterity, is after the jump.
An interesting moment: Hillary seeks to turn her health care loss to the GOP to her advantage -- and simultaneously draw a sharp distinction with Obama -- by saying that if we don't articulate the goal as "universal health care" at the outset, Dems will be ceding crucial turf to the GOP:
I think we as Democrats have to be willing to fight for universal healthcare. And what I concluded, when I was looking at this — because I got the same kind of advice, which was, "It's controversial, you'll run into all of this buzzsaw." And I said, "Been there, done that." But if you don't start by saying you're going to achieve universal healthcare, you will be nibbled to death.
And I think it's imperative that as we move forward in this debate and into the campaign, that we recognize what both John Edwards and I did: That you have to bite this bullet — you have to say, "Yes, we are gonna try to get to universal healthcare."
Obama's response, in keeping with his message, is two-fold: No one will go un-insured under his plan, and, more important, the candidate who can best unite Dems, Republicans and independents behind a common goal is the one who will ultimately resolve the health care crisis.
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It needs to be said that Barack Obama went out of his way to assuage the worries of Edwards supporters -- that is, the fear that his voice will disappear from the conversation now that he's no longer in the race.
"First of all, I want to acknowledge a candidate who left the race this week, John Edwards, who did such an outstanding job elevating the issue of poverty," Obama said, adding that his will be "a voice for this party and for this country for many years to come."
Hillary didn't come anywhere near this level of tribute, saying that she and Edwards had the same ideas about health care.
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The debate in Los Angeles is underway. It's the first head to head showdown between these two just days before Super Tuesday -- meaning the stakes couldn't be higher -- and it opens with both candidates taking steps to rise above the recent political skirmishing with each other, and both praising John Edwards, whose endorsement is now the most coveted in the race.
Obama seeks to cast the recent acrimony as a sign of just how much is at stake: "We are running a competitive race, but it's because we both love this country, and we believe deeply in the issues that are stake. I believe we're in a defining moment in our history. Our nation is at war, our planet is in peril."
Meanwhile, Hillary gave a nod towards Edwards by saying that her health care plan covers everyone, just as, she pointed out, Edwards' plan did.
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The Obama campaign is already thinking ahead to the post-Super Tuesday environment. Chances are that the race for the Democratic nomination won't be over Tuesday, and it will then be followed by races that weekend in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington State and Maine. And before we're even done analyzing those, there will be primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia that Tuesday.
The Obama campaign has bought TV time in all of those states, with ads set to start airing tomorrow. Whether he romps home this Tuesday, loses badly or fights to a standstill with Hillary Clinton, the campaign will go on.
This ad will run in Washington State, Nebraska, Maine, the District of Columbia and Virginia:
The new SurveyUSA poll in Massachusetts gives Hillary Clinton a more than healthy lead in the state, despite Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama. Here are the numbers, compared to their previous poll from last week:
Clinton 57% (-2) Obama 33% (+11)
The two are tied among men at 44% each, but Hillary has a 65%-26% lead among women.
A Rasmussen poll released last night gave Hillary only a six-point lead.
Here it is: A handy guide to what all the most recent polls are saying in nearly all of the 22 states holding Democratic primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5th.
Taken together, all these polls — which we've assembled for you in chart form for your convenience — offer a clear snapshot of the Super Tuesday showdown as it is shaping up right now.
The overall picture these polls provide: The race is tightening up in practically all the key Feb. 5th states — mirroring what the national polls are showing.
It's true that of the states where polls are available, Hillary Clinton leads in all but three of them. And even in Colorado and Georgia, where Obama is ahead, his advantage is a narrow one. In short, the polls would seem to show that Hillary Clinton goes into Super Tuesday with a clear advantage.
Nonetheless, the chart shows that in recent weeks, and especially in the last few days, Obama has seriously narrowed the gaps in such key states as California, Massachusetts and Connecticut, with more polls coming in everyday. Furthermore, the withdrawal of John Edwards has thrown the race into yet more chaos — the combined Edwards/undecided number is around 20% across the board. If Obama can keep the momentum going by consolidating the undecideds and taking a majority of former Edwards supporters, this could get very close indeed.
If Hillary posts a strong showing on Super Tuesday, dominating across the board, then she'll likely stop Obama's momentum and seal the nomination soon afterwards. But if Obama cuts it close or even overtakes her in the day's delegate count, this race continues onward.
You might have expected that this would have happened quicker, but here, at any rate, is the inevitable spot from Hillary touting her New York Times endorsement...
The campaign hasn't announced yet where exactly it's running, but one assumes it will be running in many big Feb. 5th states. (Via Ben Smith.)
The Obama campaign confirms that it raised an astonishing $32 million -- in the month of January alone.
Clearly, the Iowa win on January 3 provided a huge burst of fundraising momentum right on through the South Carolina victory.
To put this number in perspective: In one month, Obama raised more than half the $51 million Howard Dean raised during his entire campaign in 2004, and roughly one-fourth the full sum of $125 million George Bush raised to take the presidency in 2000.
Late Update: A commenter below raises a good point: There's no way of proving that this was actually given to Drudge beyond his claim that it was his "exclusive." So I've removed the reference. Apologies for jumping to conclusions, though in fairness all I did was ask whether this had been leaked to him.
Late Late Update: In another sign of how protracted this race may end up being, it looks as if the Obama campaign is already preparing to advertise on states beyond Feb. 5th.
Obama will reportedly go on the air in all the states with primaries on February 9th, 10th, and 12th. Sizable amounts of money have already been plunked down for ads in just about every Feb. 5th state.
The McCain campaign filed their year-end fundraising report with the Federal Election Commission yesterday — and it shows just what dire straits he was in before he proceeded to win New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
McCain took in just under $10 million for the fourth quarter of 2007, but spent slightly more than that in the same quarter. McCain ended the year with only $2.95 million cash on hand, and $4.52 million in debts. In short, it appears that McCain is on the verge of clinching the nomination despite the fact that he was broke just before voting began.
He's probably raised a lot of money since his primary wins, and he'll certainly raise more should he win the nomination, but it just goes to show how important those early victories were. Without them, he simply would not have had the money to go on.
Hillary Clinton's new ad, running in various Super Tuesday states, is definitely memorable. It depicts the economy in "freefall" through the scary metaphor of a skydiver plummeting to the ground — with the implication that Hillary Clinton will help us open the parachute for a safe landing:
Her other ad is a lot more of a feel-good spot, with Hillary talking about how there's no problem Americans can't solve — plus the gentle warning that "the stakes have never been higher":
With five days to go until Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney's spokesperson is confirming that the Romney campaign has bought exactly zero TV ad time in any of the states that vote on Feb. 5.
"We currently haven't purchased any ad time yet," Romney spokesperson Kevin Madden confirmed to Election Central, when asked about Feb. 5th states.
The Associated Press, relying on anonymous officials, reported the lack of any ad buying on the Romney campaign's part. The Politico also confirmed this late yesterday evening.
Even more interesting, Madden also refused to say whether the campaign would be buying any ad time in any Feb. 5th state. Asked if Romney would buy any time, Madden said: "We don't telegraph strategic decisions like ad buying ahead of time."
This suggests the possibility that the campaign won't be buying any time in advance of the multi-state showdown that is likely to decide the race. At the least, this is a big boost for John McCain. At the most, it could amount to a possible admission that the Romney camp thinks the race is pretty much over.
Late Update: A Romney campaign official tells me that the campaign will be purchasing ad time today, though the official declined to specify how much and where.
Late Late Update: The Romney buy is in California, the crucial big state where McCain picked up the endorsement of Arnold Schwarzenegger today.
Another Rasmussen poll shows Barack Obama making up serious ground in a major Super Tuesday state. In California, Hillary Clinton has a bare lead of 43%, followed Obama at 40% and John Edwards with 9%.
If Obama were to pull off a win in the largest state in the country, it would completely change the dynamics of the campaign. And if Hillary were to come out on top, it could give her a large number of delegates to fend off Obama's advantages elsewhere.
A new Rasmussen poll in Massachusetts shows that Hillary Clinton is now barely ahead of Barack Obama, in the wake of the Ted Kennedy endorsement. Hillary leads with 43%, followed by Obama at 37% and the now-departed John Edwards with 11%.
Rasmussen did not have a previous poll of the Massachusetts primary. However, a SurveyUSA poll from last week, before Obama's political adoption by the Kennedy family, had Hillary ahead by a whopping 37 points. It looks like Massachusetts is officially a race now.
As expected, Rudy Giuliani just held a press conference with John McCain at the Reagan Library, in which Rudy dropped out of the race and endorsed McCain.
Rudy said that his decision to back McCain wasn't difficult, after he'd said last year that he would have supported McCain if he hadn't been running himself. "If I'd endorsed anyone else, you would say I was flip-flopping," Rudy joked.
It's looking like John McCain will get another huge endorsement in a major Super Tuesday state. Newsweek reports that Arnold Schwarzenegger will likely endorse McCain soon after tonight's debate at the Reagan Library.
CNN also has the news, reporting that the endorsement will officially come within the next 48 hours.
Late Update: It's confirmed. Arnold will endorse McCain tomorrow.
After a morning dominated by the John Edwards news, the Dem primary jolted back into action today when Obama unleashed a lacerating attack on Hillary at an event in Denver:
"Democrats will win in November and build a majority in Congress not by nominating a candidate who will unite the other party against us, but by choosing one who can unite this country around a movement for change," Obama said...
"It is time for new leadership that understands the way to win a debate with John McCain or any Republican who is nominated is not by nominating someone who agreed with him on voting for the war in Iraq or who agreed with him in voting to give George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran, who agrees with him in embracing the Bush-Cheney policy of not talking to leaders we don't like, who actually differed with him by arguing for exceptions for torture before changing positions when the politics of the moment changed," Obama said.
"We need to offer the American people a clear contrast on national security, and when I am the nominee of the Democratic Party, that is exactly what I will do," he said.
Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer swiftly hit back, emailing over the following response:
Today’s speech was a greatest hits collection of all of the attacks Senator Obama has advanced against Senator Clinton throughout the campaign.
Senator Obama doesn’t sound like he’s ready to practice the new politics he so often talks about. In fact, Senator Obama’s remarks suggest that his talk about bringing the country together is just that -- talk.
Obama's broadside suggests that he was moving quickly to gain the upper-hand as the race abruptly shifts into a genuine two-person contest. A more extensive rebuttal from the Hillary campaign is here.
A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows that Barack Obama might be sneaking up on Hillary Clinton in her home state of New York. Hillary leads with 45% of the vote, followed by Obama at 33% and John Edwards with 10%. In the demographic breakdown, Hillary leads 44%-29% among whites, Obama 44%-32% among African-Americans, and Hillary 64%-31% among Hispanics.
Bear in mind that all Democratic primaries use a form of proportional representation — so Obama could walk away with a decent chunk of delegates if he simply posts a respectable showing for an out-of-state challenger.
On the Republican side, it looks like John McCain will coast to a win in this winner-take-all contest. He leads with 34%, followed by the now-departed Rudy Giuliani at 20%, Mitt Romney with 19%, and Mike Huckabee with 10%.
This one is interesting, because it cuts against the idea that there is some sort of tacit alliance between Rupert Murdoch and the Clintons: Another of Hillary's hometown papers, the Murdoch-owned New York Post, has thrown its endorsement to Barack Obama.
Of course, not a lot of New York Democrats take their cues from the Post, but it's still noteworthy.
Now that John Edwards has dropped out, we've prepared a video retrospective of all the attacks that Elizabeth and John waged against leading right-wing media figures like Ann Coulter, something that was one of the more fun subplots of Campaign 2008.
John Edwards just gave his dropout speech in New Orleans, which is where it all began, and he told his audience that he'd spoken to both Hillary and Obama and squeezed a promise from them.
"They have both pledged to me, and more importantly, through me to the American people, that they will make ending poverty central to their campaigns for the presidency," Edwards said, adding that they'd vowed to make poverty central to their presidencies, too.
"Today I am suspending my campaign for the Democratic nomination of the presidency," Edwards also said. "This son of a millworker is going to be just fine. Our job right now is to make sure that everyone in America is fine."
Edwards also pleaded with his listeners to not forget about his issues: "Do not give up on the causes we have fought for," he said. "It's time for all of us together to make the two Americas one."
As is well documented by now, the Edwards campaign had a salutary effect on the presidential campaign's ongoing conversation in multiple ways. The question now is whether Edwards, as a former candidate, will still be able to exert the same pull on the debate and keep his issues alive in the public consciousness.
It's a question that, judging by Edwards' exhortations, remains an open one, though he did secure a pledge from the two leading Dems that they would help him do just that.
The new Gallup poll shows the national Democratic race might be really tightening — Hillary's lead is down to the single digits. Here are the numbers, compared to their last poll from two days ago:
Top Edwards adviser Joe Trippi just confirmed to me by phone that the Hillary and Obama campaigns are already working overtime to woo Edwards to their sides -- even before his official dropout speech.
"They're banging down the doors," Trippi told me.
"I don't expect him to do anything today," Trippi said. "His will be a very coveted endorsement. He's got a fairly large following in the party, both on line and off, and I can't think of anybody else who would be bigger or more coveted."
Asked if an endorsement was possible before Feb. 5, something that could have a huge impact, Trippi declined to rule out the possibility. "I'll let him speak to that himself," Trippi said.
Trippi declined to specify precisely what pitch each campaign was making for his support.
Asked about the sudden timing of Edwards' decision to leave the race, Trippi declined to elaborate on what precipitated it.
"Look, the guy led on every single issue out there, whether it was poverty, the economy, global warming, or universal health care," Trippi said. "He moved the progressive agenda much further than any other candidate -- so much so that both Clinton and Obama adopted a lot of his language and agenda. Which is a great thing to have done."
"I would rather have won," Trippi conceded. "But I'll let him speak to why now and what it means to him."
On a local news station in Birmingham, Alabama, Hillary just commented on John Edwards' departure from the presidential race. She stressed that she's the candidate to carry on Edwards' war on poverty and made it clear that she will be reaching out aggressively to win over his supporters.
Hillary's campaign tipped us off on her appearance...
Here's a transcript, which was sent our way by her campaign:
HRC: Well Senator Edwards is a friend of mine, he was a colleague in the senate and I have the highest regard for him, and I’m really admiring of what he has done to make sure that poverty was on the agenda here in America. He encouraged all of us in his passion and advocacy and I hope he will continue that work because it is really important that we stay focused on what we’re going to do to help people.
You know, I’m out here talking about making the economy work for everybody. And it needs to work for the middle class, working people, it needs to give a life line to poor people like we did in the 1990s, so in any way that I can be part of this effort to try to target poverty I am going to be.
ANCHOR: Senator, there is no indication right now that he would endorse a candidate, would you hope and expect that his supporters would back you now and your candidacy?
HRC: Well, I’m certainly going to be reaching out to everyone who did support Senator Edwards. I think that our emphasis on what happens in the real lives of Americans, making this about solving our problems, looking at taking on those interests that stand in the way of universal health care, and a tax system that doesn’t favor the wealthy and well-connected and making sure college is affordable.
You know these are the causes that I’ve worked on for 35 years. Senator Edwards shares a lot of those passions with me and I hope that I’ll be able to persuade his supporters in the week ahead as we move toward super Tuesday to come over and endorse and support me because I want to have a united democratic party with a very strong base going into the November 2008 election.
More in a bit.
Late Update: The Hillary campaign's official Web site already has this on its homepage:
Obama is first out of the box with a statement on Edwards' departure from the race:
“John Edwards has spent a lifetime fighting to give voice to the voiceless and hope to the struggling, even when it wasn’t popular to do or covered in the news. At a time when our politics is too focused on who’s up and who’s down, he made a nation focus again on who matters – the New Orleans child without a home, the West Virginia miner without a job, the families who live in that other America that is not seen or heard or talked about by our leaders in Washington.
"John and Elizabeth Edwards have always believed deeply that we can change this – that two Americans can become one, and that our country can rally around this common purpose. So while his campaign may end today, the cause of their lives endures for all of us who still believe that we can achieve that dream of one America.
Regular readers will know that I for one will appreciate Obama's declaration that Edwards' cause "wasn't covered in the news." More on that here.
Separately, it's noteworthy that Obama is signaling that he is the one who would carry on the quest for a "one America," as Edwards' slogan had it. As noted below, an Edwards adviser says an endorsement isn't forthcoming "for the moment," though this adviser didn't rule out an endorsement before Super Tuesday.
Now that Edwards has dropped, one of the first thing the Hillary and Obama campaigns will be doing is trying to win over Edwards' delegates. According to one tally, Edwards has a total of 62 -- 26 pledged delegates, and 36 superdelegates.
Meanwhile, other Edwards supporters that will be coveted by the other campaigns: Unions such as the steelworkers and the carpenters' union, and surrogates such as liberal Rep. David Obey.
As for voters themselves, commentators are split between thinking that Edwards' working-class supporters will gravitate towards Hillary and thinking that Edwards' backers are basically un-Hillary "change" voters who will naturally drift towards Obama.
The most recent national number on this that I can find on this question is this Los Angeles Times poll from late January:
"Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina drew the support of 11% of Democratic respondents. When asked for whom they would vote if their first choice dropped out, slightly more Edwards voters leaned toward Clinton than toward Obama, the poll found."
An Edwards adviser confirms to me that John Edwards won't be making any endorsement "for the moment."
However, this source refused to rule out the possibility of an endorsement before Feb. 5th, which is six days away. If Edwards were to throw his support to either Hillary or Obama before that date, the impact could obviously be huge.
Democrat John Edwards is exiting the presidential race Wednesday, ending a scrappy underdog bid in which he steered his rivals toward progressive ideals while grappling with family hardship that roused voter's sympathies but never diverted his campaign, The Associated Press has learned.
The two-time White House candidate notified a close circle of senior advisers that he planned to make the announcement at a 1 p.m. EST event in New Orleans that had been billed as a speech on poverty, according to two of his advisers. The decision came after Edwards lost the four states to hold nominating contests so far to rivals who stole the spotlight from the beginning — Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.
Immediate significance: This is now a two-person race, meaning tomorrow's Dem debate will be just Hillary and Obama. And the scramble to win over Edwards supporters, surrogates and donors -- not to say the support of Edwards himself -- will now begin in earnest between the two top Dems.
More in a bit.
Late Update: Edwards will speak about this at 1 P.M. today, I've confirmed.
Late Update: Edwards will be joined by Elizabeth and their children today for his dropout speech, and after that they will go to Musicians Village and do some work on NOLA Habitat for Humanity houses, I'm told.
In other words, the anti-poverty work that launched his campaign will continue.
Late Update: Edwards won't be endorsing "for the moment," according to an adviser.
A poll of Connecticut released yesterday evening by Rasmussen shows that there may well be some bounce for Barack Obama from his victory in South Carolina and the Ted Kennedy endorsement. Obama and Hillary Clinton are now tied at 40% each, with John Edwards way behind at 9%.
Rasmussen did not have a previous poll of the Connecticut primary, but a look at other polls shows that Obama used to have trouble breaking even 30%. Can he leverage the Kennedy endorsement into wins in some New England states where he'd been way behind?
Rudy's efforts to ride his 9/11 magic carpet all the way into the White House appear to have foundered for good. The Associated Press reports that Rudy will drop out and endorse John McCain tomorrow in California.
In honor of this moment, we thought it would be worthwhile to rerun the Rudy ad that amounted to the single most ridiculous and self-parodic effort on his part to exploit 9/11.
In this ad, Rudy's campaign said that his response to the terror attacks was literally stronger than that of anyone else in the world -- stronger than that of Bush, stronger than that of the rest of America, stronger even that that of the first responders who perished saving the lives of others in the aftermath of the disaster...
John McCain appears to have just barely edged out Mitt Romney in the all-important Florida GOP primary, according to projections from CNN and the Associated Press.
Right now, with just over half reporting, McCain has 36%, Romney has 31% and Rudy is bringing up third with 15%.
The scuttlebutt in GOP circles is that the McCain and Romney camps are both aggressively lobbying Rudy for his endorsement, in the expectation that Rudy will drop out soon, perhaps even tonight.
More soon.
Late Update: Rudy is speaking now. It sounds very much like a drop-out speech. Rudy is telling America what it needs to do in order to not succumb to the terrorists without him at the helm.
Late Update: Tomorrow the GOP is set to debate in California. Will Rudy show? ABC News reports that the Rudy and McCain camps are negotiating over ways to give Rudy a graceful exit.
Late Update: Romney just gave his concession speech. His message, in a nutshell: Unions and Hillary are bad, and we should thank George W. Bush for keeping us safe for the past six years.
Late Update: One thing worth noting: This is the first GOP primary that wasn't open to independents, and McCain won it. If you look at the exit polls, you can see that McCain won the broad middle of GOPers, winning over Romney among somewhat liberal, moderate, and somewhat conservative Repubicans, and only losing to Romney among very conservative voters.
Barack Obama is giving to charity more than $70,000 in contributions linked to an indicted Chicago businessman whose past connections to the Democratic presidential candidate have created a distraction and raised questions about his judgment.
The campaign announced the decision to shed the money Tuesday evening, saying it was the result of a further review of contributions related to Antoin Rezko, a real estate developer and fast-food magnate who has been a long time political figure in Chicago, Obama's hometown...
The campaign's timing for its announcement seemed designed to avoid major news coverage.
The Obama camp is having a bit of fun with tonight's delegate-free results in Florida. Obama spokesperson Bill Burton just sent out an email with some big "breaking" news...
Obama and Clinton tie for delegates in Florida.
0 for Obama,
0 for Clinton.
But Bill, where's Edwards? How many delegates did Edwards get?
Seriously, the delegate question aside, lots of folks are voting in Florida right now, and with a third reporting, Hillary has 49%, Obama has 29%, and Edwards has 15%.
A political operative forwards us this mailer that Obama backer UNITE dropped in Florida urging a vote for him.
The Obama campaign has mocked the Hillary campaign's insistence that the Florida voting should be seen as significant and that the state's delegates should be seated.
By law the Obama campaign can't coordinate with UNITE, and this isn't the work of the Obama campaign. But this Obama ally seems to see that the breakdown of the Florida vote will carry weight in the coverage, if not in terms of delegates. The mailer urges, in English and Spanish, that Floridians "Vote! in the Florida Primary..."
Here's some more activity in Florida that arguably skirts the candidates' "pledge" not to campaign in Florida.
Last night, Rep. Corrine Brown (D-FL), an avid Hillary Clinton supporter, put out a round of robo calls in opposition to Amendment 1, a GOP-pushed state amendment to cap property taxes. At the end of the call, Brown said that she was supporting Clinton to be the Democratic nominee, Brown's chief of staff Ronnie Simmons confirmed to us tonight. He said that the calls were funded by Brown's campaign committee.
Ben Smith over at the Politico, who also got wind of the calls, reports that Brown ended with "For Corrine's quick pick, I'm supporting Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for president." Simmons also told him that the calls were not coordinated or vetted by the Clinton campaign.
AFSCME drops a new mailer in Florida urging a vote for Hillary. The mailer was sent our way by a political operative, and while by law this has to be uncoordinated with the Hillary campaign, the union is obviously carrying out activity on her behalf despite the candidates' "pledge" against campaigning there.
The Hillary campaign aggressively made the case today that despite the pledge, the voters of Florida deserve to be heard and that the state's delegation should be seated.
Also note the heavy push-back in the mailer on Obama's "change" message (which is done without mentioning Obama). Click on the images to enlarge:
Obama's already up with a spot starring a Kennedy -- Caroline -- and in addition to her spoken testimonial, it features shots of JFK and of one of the more potent images of that generation's grasp for greatness, i.e., the grainy footage of the first walk on the Moon.
In addition to running in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and on national cable, it's also running in Boston. Obama trails Hillary by large margins in Massachusetts, so the Boston placement suggests that perhaps the Obama camp thinks the Kennedys could put the state in play, if it isn't merely an Obama head-fake in the direction of the state.
Separately, the image of Teddy Kennedy is set to appear in a Spanish-language ad in Florida, capitalizing on the Kennedy clan's popularity with Latinos.
Late Update: Obama has that other ad out featuring Kennedy imagery, a Spanish-language spot starring Chicago Congressman Luis Gutierrez. The spot opens conspicuously with a shot of the candidate alongside Ted:
Obama goes negative on Hillary in a new mailer in North Dakota, charging that Hillary once supported NAFTA and flip-flopped to oppose such trade deals as a presidential candidate. It also claims she puts "Washington thinking and Washington interests first."
Click on the images below to enlarge:
In an extended rebuttal, the Hillary campaign rightly points out that the source cited for the NAFTA claim doesn't prove that Hillary was a "strong supporter" of the trade deal, though she was obviously a member of the Clinton administration when it passed. Full response here.
Late Update: The Obama campaign's fact-check on Hillary and NAFTA is here.
This is interesting. Hillary supporter Bob Kerrey had a letter to the editor in The Times today responding to Bob Herbert's weekend column, which pointed to Kerrey's apparently accidental claim that Obama had gone to a "secular madrassa" as a sign of the Clinton campaign's race-bating.
Kerrey wrote:
This letter is written to restate my compliment of Senator Obama.
If he becomes president of the United States, his experience will give him the capacity to undo much of the damage we have done to our standing in Muslim communities without weakening our resolve to keep ourselves safe from terrorist Islamic groups.
For a Hillary supporter to go out of his way to restate such praise of Obama seems suggestive in light of recent events. More on Herbert's column and on the weaker side of Kerrey's response right here.
The nationalization of the Democratic primary race continues. Hillary Clinton has a new ad running in various February 5 states, depicting a soft-voice Hillary speaking directly to the viewer — in emotional tones somewhat reminiscent of "The Tears" — about how hard she will work to help people:
Meanwhile, Barack Obama has a new ad in the Super Tuesday state of North Dakota, a heavily Republican state that also happens to have an all-Democratic delegation to Congress. The ad features senior Sen. Kent Conrad, who endorsed Obama back in December:
On a conference call arranged by the Hillary campaign just moments ago, her advisers rolled out some novel arguments to reporters as to why we should see the Florida primary as important despite the fact that no delegates are at stake.
The first: Because Floridians have been following the campaign through the national media -- and because Floridians are voting in huge numbers -- it's clear that they made an informed decision to be heard as part of the electoral process.
"Much to everyone's surprise, Floridians said, `You know what? We want to have a primary,'" Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson said on the call. He also said: "It's quite heartening and exciting to see record numbers of people saying that their choices matter."
Hillary's advisers also pushed the point even further, predicting that the votes of Floridians will in fact matter, in that Florida will eventually seat its delegation. Wolfson, for instance, suggested that the question of whether Florida seats delegates will be ultimately settled democratically.
"There will likely be a vote at the convention on whether or not to seat these delegations," Wolfson said of Florida and Michigan.
Of course, in addition to any long term strategy of actually getting any delegations seated, Camp Hillary is pushing the media to confer significance on the Florida results in the short term, probably to beat back the Obama-on-a-roll narrative.
A Democratic source who tracks media buys tells me something interesting that reflects how bad the environment is for Repubs this year: He says that no GOP candidate has a single ad up on the air in any of the Feb. 5th states, even though Super Tuesday is a week away.
He also provides a good explanation for the Mittmentum we've been seeing. According to the source, Mitt spent roughly $1.5 million on TV ads during the week ending January 25, while both John McCain and Rudy spent roughly $800,000 apiece.
This suggests that Romney might be succeeding partly because he's doubled the ad spending of McCain.
Anyway, I've got calls into the campaigns to confirm this. We'll keep you posted.
Barack Obama officially has another governor supporting his candidacy. Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who gave the Democratic response to the State of the Union last night, has confirmed to the Associated Press that she is endorsing Obama.
Sebelius' endorsement, which has been expected for the last couple days, coincides with a campaign stop Obama is making today in her Super Tuesday state, in which he will be visiting the home town of his maternal grandparents.
This brings Obama's support from governors to six, compared to Hillary Clinton's ten.
Considering the mounting improbability of John Edwards being the Democratic nominee, is there a point to him staying in the race? The New York Times lays out the answer to that very question: The more delegates he racks up, the greater the chance of forcing a brokered nomination, giving him a whole lot of clout as the king/queen-maker.
"We're still hoping that John is the nominee," said David Bonior, Edwards' national campaign manager and former House Democratic whip. "But with a chunk of delegates, you can leverage what you've been fighting for and standing for. You can raise these issues to where they should be on the Democratic agenda. We're running for those two reasons: to get the nomination and to have his voice heard on his issues."
Bill Richardson's own presidential campaign might have failed to catch on, but he's become a key coveted endorsement for the remaining candidates. The Washington Post reports that in the last couple days alone he's been called by Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, his former boss Bill Clinton, Hillary supporter Ed Rendell, and Obama supporter — and his old political mentor — Ted Kennedy.
Richardson is undecided on whether to endorse, but if he does he will do so by the end of the week. "If I do endorse, it's going to be a gut feeling. It's not going to be about statistics, about past ties," Richardson said. "I've been on the campaign trail with both of them. I feel that I know them."
The final Zogby poll of the Florida primary gives John McCain an apparent lead in the Republican race, though like practically all other polls the race is still too close to call. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday's release:
The final SurveyUSA poll in the Florida primary shows that the Republican race is simply too close to call between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Here are the numbers, compared to the poll released earlier today:
Analysis from SurveyUSA: "We can reveal that in the final totals it is McCain 31.6%, Romney 31.2%, but we will caution that those numbers are not materially different than the Romney 31.9%, McCain 31.3% numbers that SurveyUSA reported this morning. The movement is too small to be judged significant, and the best interpretation of the data and the trendlines is that the contest could go either way."
The LA Times's political blog catches an odd moment in which Rudy seems to be laying the groundwork to exit the race if and when he loses tomorrow:
In a meeting in the back of his chartered plane en route to St. Petersburg, Fla., a short while ago, the onetime, longtime GOP front-runner told a small group of reporters, including The Times' Louise Roug: "The winner of Florida will win the nomination."
Rudy's spokesperson quickly noted that Rudy was expressing confidence about winning tomorrow. Still, Rudy's in third or fourth in Florida in most polls -- and Rudy himself thinks that whoever wins tomorrow will "win the nomination."
So, given his own remarks, if he loses tomorrow there will be no point in continuing, and he'll drop out, right?
A new survey from Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling gives Mitt Romney a big lead over John McCain, and clear momentum. Here are the numbers, compared to their last poll from five days ago:
With the Democratic race fast shifting to a national contest, the campaigns are ramping up their buying in the Feb. 5th states. The Edwards camp, for instance, announced on a conference call an "aggressive" new ad buy in 10 states over the next 48 hours.
Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is rolling out a series of state ads, including one in Missouri starring Obama backer Claire McCaskill...
...and another in Arizona starring Janet Napolitano:
The new SurveyUSA poll in Florida shows a dead heat in the Republican primary. In a possible sign of momentum, Mitt Romney leads by one point, whereas he was down in their previous poll released Friday:
As promised, here are the highlights of the speeches from Teddy Kennedy and Barack Obama today...
I'd missed this the first time, but note Obama's claim that the "torch" JFK referred to was passed to his "youngest brother." Which in turn makes Teddy's endorsement of Obama that much more pregnant with symbolism...
Late Update: One other thing about the video: You can see that Kennedy's shots at the Clintons -- his insistence that "no one" should distort Obama's record of opposition to the war, and his claim that Obama will be ready on "day one" -- are very pronounced, and clearly intended.
The ad wars in Florida sure have gotten rough. John McCain has a new radio ad ridiculing Romney's technocrat image, bringing up some "numbers" that Mitt might not like:
• Romney's health plan in Massachusetts has gone $400 million over budget.
• Romney raised taxes in Massachusetts by $700 million.
• Romney loses to Hillary Clinton by 16 points in a national poll.
"Republicans lose," the announcer says. "We can't afford Mitt Romney."
Late Update: A response from Romney spokesman Kevin Madden, via-email, is available after the jump.
Another noteworthy line from Iraq War opponent Teddy Kennedy's speech today:
We know the true record of Barack Obama. There is the courage he showed when so many others were silent or simply went along. From the beginning, he opposed the war in Iraq.
Barack Obama spoke right after Teddy Kennedy endorsed him today, and in his speech, the Illinois Senator skillfully drew a connection between JFK and himself with this anecdote about his Kenyan father:
I barely knew him, but when, after his death, I finally took my first trip to his tiny village in Kenya and asked my grandmother if there was anything left from him, she opened a trunk and took out a stack of letters, which she handed to me.
There were more than thirty of them, all handwritten by my father, all addressed to colleges and universities across America, all filled with the hope of a young man who dreamed of more for his life. And his prayer was answered when he was brought over to study in this country.
But what I learned much later is that part of what made it possible for him to come here was an effort by the young Senator from Massachusetts at the time, John F. Kennedy, and by a grant from the Kennedy Foundation to help Kenyan students pay for travel. So it is partly because of their generosity that my father came to this country, and because he did, I stand before you today – inspired by America’s past, filled with hope for America’s future, and determined to do my part in writing our next great chapter.
Between Caroline Kennedy's New York Times Op ed yesterday entitled "A President Like My Father," to Teddy Kennedy's JFK-like declaration that it is time for "a new generation" of leadership, to the staging of the event at American University, where JFK gave a famous speech on world peace, to Obama's own repeated use of the word "torch" and his biographical link to a young JFK, you could hardly imagine a better couple of days for the Obama campaign than these have been.
Obama's full speech after the jump.
Late Update: Expanding on the idea that this was the best couple of days you can imagine for Obama, also consider that the news broke today that Obama associate Tony Rezko was arrested.
If this news had broken on any other day, it would obviously have commanded more attention.
Teddy Kennedy opens his speech endorsing Obama by turning to Caroline Kennedy, who also endorsed Obama, and saying:
"Your mother and father would be so proud of you today."
After offering heartfelt praise of both Hillary and John Edwards, Kennedy distills down his message about Obama:
I believe there is one candidate who has extraordinary gifts of leadership and character, matched to the extraordinary demands of this moment in history...
He will be a President who refuses to be trapped in the patterns of the past.
Kennedy also hits high notes on the power of the young to affect change, Obama's early opposition to the war, and "his grit and his grace."
Kennedy, in a reference to Hillary's campaign message that seems tailor made for a future political ad, also said that Obama will be ready to be president "on day one."
And Kennedy, in what's of course a reference to JFK, closes on the key quote: "It is time again for a new generation of leadership."
The choice of American University is a good touch. It's of course the place where JFK delivered his famous speech looking forward to world peace and nuclear disarmament.
Here are the Hillary campaign's talking points, sent to surrogates to signal to them how they should respond to media questions about the racial dust-ups and Kennedy endorsement. They were forwarded our way by a source.
Here are the Hillary talkers on Bill's Jackson comment:
DAILY Q&A:
JACKSON, FLORIDA, KENNEDY AND MOMENTUM
Wasn’t former President Bill Clinton playing the race card when he sought to downplay Barack Obama’s victory in South Carolina by comparing him to Jesse Jackson?
* No.
* Look, President Bill Clinton has spent his entire public and private life repairing the breach in this country.
* Both his Presidency and his post-presidency career have focused on unity, not division.
* So I reject the premise of the question.
* We need to focus on the challenges facing this country – the state of our economy, the continuing war in Iraq, the need for universal health care.
* And those challenges require a President who can come to the office ready to lead on day one, Hillary Clinton
And on the Kennedy endorsement:
Liberal Icon Senator Ted Kennedy is announcing today that he’s endorsing Barack Obama. News reports say that Bill Clinton personally lobbied Senator Kennedy to stay neutral but was ultimately rejected.
* We have enormous respect for the Kennedy family.
* We appreciate that Bobby Kennedy Jr., Kerry Kennedy, Anthony Kennedy Shriver and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend all made different choices and are supporting Hillary Clinton.
* Regardless of which Kennedy supports which candidate, we are aware that ultimately this election will be decided not by one family but by the voters themselves.
* And when it comes to a direct comparison on the issues, leadership skills and experience, Hillary Clinton is the best candidate in the race to lead this nation moving forward.
So if you hear some of this stuff, you'll have an idea where it came from. More after the jump.
“I don’t read anything negative into Clinton’s observation," the paper quotes Jackson, an Obama supporter, as saying.
“Bill has done so much for race relations and inclusion, I would tend not to read a negative scenario into his comments," Jackson is also quoted as saying. Jackson tells the paper he sees Bill's remarks as a recognition of his own success in the state.
But the paper also reports that Jackson privately appealed to both Bill and Obama to take the campaign “to a higher ground.”
And the Times also answers a key question that many have been asking by reporting that all available evidence suggests that Bill was the first person in the entire exchange with reporters to mention Jesse.
Jane Hamsher has the scoop: Both Hillary and Obama will be in Washington today to vote No on cloture for the FISA bill.
The vote is already being praised as courageous by liberal bloggers, but there is a potential danger over the long run. Whereas support for the bill in its current form would anger a whole chunk of the Democratic base in the short run, expect this vote to be used as more political ammunition by the Republicans against either Hillary or Obama in the general election.
This morning's Washington Post sheds a bit more light on Ted Kennedy's decision to endorse Obama:
Kennedy's decision came after weeks of his rising frustration with the Clintons over campaign tactics, particularly comments by the couple and their surrogates in South Carolina that seemed to carry racial overtones. Kennedy expressed his frustrations directly to the former president, but to no avail. He came to his endorsement decision over the past week, after speaking to numerous family members, especially younger ones, and gave Obama the word on Thursday, people familiar with the endorsement said.
So, if Kennedy told Obama of the pending endorsement on Thursday, it couldn't have been spurred by Bill's comparison of Obama to Jesse Jackson, which happened on Saturday. But the racial overtones obviously played a big role.
The Obama campaign makes the Ted Kennedy endorsement official, emailing out word to reporters that Obama will be accompanied by Teddy, Rep. Patrick Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy at a "stand for change" rally in Washington, D.C., today.
It's a visual the Obama campaign will obviously be making the most of. We'll bring you more when we have it.
Barack Obama is picking up the endorsement of author Toni Morrison, who won the Nobel Prize in literature for her writings on African-American life.
The endorsement is special due to some famous words that Morrison wrote about Bill Clinton in 1998: "White skin notwithstanding, this is our first black president. Blacker than any actual person who could ever be elected in our children's lifetime."
This morning's Quinnipiac poll shows the Republican primary in Florida to be a statistical dead heat. Here are the numbers, compared to the last poll from two weeks ago:
Two new polls show John McCain getting an increase in Florida in the wake of Gov. Charlie Crist's endorsement, taking the lead or tying Mitt Romney after one new day of polling.
Commentary from John Zogby: “It is important to note that popular Florida Gov. Charlie Crist endorsed McCain Saturday and campaigned with him Sunday. Sunday alone, McCain had another big day, winning 38% support to Romney’s 31%."
And from Rasmussen, which also credited Crist's endorsement as one of several factors:
At a campaign even in Florida today, John McCain made a pronouncement that might not go over too well with the general public, should he be the Republican nominee: "There will be other wars."
"And I gotta give you some straight talk, my friends. It's a tough war we're in. It's not gonna be over right away," McCain said. "There's gonna be other wars. I'm sorry to tell you, there's gonna be other wars. We will never surrender, but there will be other wars."
A new Mason-Dixon poll of Colorado shows Mitt Romney with a huge lead over John McCain — probably due in no small part to the illegal immigration issue — and Barack Obama edging Hillary Clinton in a statistical dead heat:
Barack Obama responds to Bill Clinton's reference to the fact that Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in 1984 and 1988...
Stephanopoulos said: "The implication is pretty clear: You’re the Jesse Jackson of 2008.”
To which Obama replied: “Jesse Jackson ran historic races in 1984 and 1988...that was 20 years ago, George."
And then it got interesting. Stephanopoulos asked explicitly: "You think President Clinton was engaging in racial politics there?"
Obama answered: "I think that, that's his frame of reference was the Jesse Jackson races. That's when he was active and involved and watching what was gonna take place in South Carolina. I think that a lot of South Carolinians looked at it through a different lens."
Ben Smith says that Obama appeared to be trying to defuse the idea that Bill was drawing a racially-charged comparison. It seems to me that when Obama said that voters looked at this through a "different lens," he basically meant that voters weren't putting Obama in the same "black candidate" box that Bill was slotting Obama into. Not sure if Obama is completely letting Bill off the hook here, though he was being awfully subtle about it.
The Boston Globe is reporting that Ted Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama, in a formal announcement scheduled for tomorrow.
The endorsement could go a long way in helping Obama with older voters and liberal activists. Another question is whether it could help Obama in Massachusetts, where Hillary Clinton has enjoyed a huge lead in the polls despite Obama already gaining the endorsements of John Kerry and Gov. Deval Patrick.
Today's Zogby tracking poll in Florida shows John McCain and Mitt Romney in a tie — a slight gain for Romney from yesterday. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday's release:
Romney wins among self-identified conservatives, while McCain wins among moderates. Interestingly, Romney wins voters over the age of 65 and under the age of 30, with McCain winning those in the middle range.
A few weeks ago, right after John Kerry endorsed Barack Obama, we reported here that the Hillary campaign was working intensely to win over Kerry's fellow Senator from Massachusetts. The idea was that a Teddy Kennedy endorsement of Hillary would take the steam out of comparisons between Obama and J.F.K.
Now it looks as if the opposite may happen. After some indications that he might remain neutral, Kennedy may be on the verge of endorsing Obama. From Obama's interview on ABC this morning:
Mark Halperin reports, on Time Magazine’s Web site this morning – and our reporting seems to confirm it — that Ted Kennedy is also on the verge of endorsing you. Is that true?
OBAMA: Well, you know, I’ll let Ted Kennedy speak for himself. Andnobody does it better. But obviously, any of the Democratic candidates would love to have Ted Kennedy’s support. And we have certainly actively sought it.
And you know, I will let him make his announcement and his decision when he decides it’s appropriate.
No denial from Obama on this. Separately, another Kennedy endorsed Obama on the Times Op ed page this morning. The title of the endorsement:
A President Like My Father
You have to assume that Camp Obama was happy about this.
