Obama's victory speech...

Late Update: John Aravosis has an interesting look at just how surprising tonight's results really are in light of the numbers over the past few months.

The numbers, with 99% reporting:

Obama: 55%

Hillary 27%

Edwards 18%

Massive win for Obama, obviously. Hillary is speaking now. More soon

Obama is giving his victory speech right now. He hits a conciliatory note about his Dem opponents:

We have fine candidates in the field – fierce competitors, worthy of respect and our admiration. And as contentious as this campaign may get, we have to remember that this is a contest for the Democratic nomination, and that all of us share an abiding desire to end the disastrous policies of the current administration.

But then he twists the knife:

But there are real differences between the candidates. We are looking for more than just a change of party in the White House. We’re looking to fundamentally change the status quo in Washington – a status quo that extends beyond any particular party. And right now, that status quo is fighting back with everything it’s got.

The status quo, presumably, being the Hillary candidacy. Full text of Obama's speech after the jump.

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CNN and MSNBC call second place for Hillary.

It's another big blow to John Edwards, who was born in this state and whose campaign was talking up a late surge -- and a possible second-place finish -- that didn't materialize.

Indeed, the Edwards camp sought to draw attention to a Hillary robocall targeting him at the last minute, pointing to it as proof that the "prohibitive frontrunner sees John Edwards as a threat to her becoming the nominee."

CNN and MSNBC both call it for Obama. More in a bit.

Late Update: Apparently the margin was large enough for the nets to call it on the basis of the exits alone...

MSNBC Says Obama got 81% of the black vote. And, according to MSNBC, he got 25% of the white vote, which is higher than polls were indicating.

More in a bit.

Late Late Update: NBC, based on the exits, says Hillary finishes second and Edwards last, another disappointment for Edwards, whose campaign had been talking up a late surge.

Late Late Update: The networks call it: Hillary wins second, and Edwards finishes in third.

The Associated Press has some interesting exit poll data that sheds a bit of light on which candidate is seen by voters as the aggressor in the South Carolina race and which is seen as the victim.

The AP finds that Obama voters are decidedly more aggrieved than Hillary ones are. Not only that, but large percentages of Hillary voters say she attacked him unfairly:

After the contentious Democratic debate Monday night, three in four Obama voters said Clinton had attacked Obama unfairly and slightly fewer than half accused their own candidate of attacking Clinton unfairly. Two-thirds of Clinton voters said Obama attacked her unfairly and nearly as many said she attacked him unfairly.

Meanwhile, the AP gives us this rather inconclusive data about Bill's impact on the race:

Nearly six in 10 of those voting said former President Clinton's campaigning in the state was an important factor for them, including a quarter who called it very important.

Right, Bill's campaigning was important in shaping voter attitudes, but how exactly? Did it help Hillary or hurt her? Hopefully we'll get a bit more data on this later.

Results expected shortly after 7 P.M., which is to say in an hour or so...

The campaigns report high turnout and no major problems at the polls.

We'll be blogging the results and more right here.

John Edwards defends Bill's right to campaign for Hillary in an interview published today:

"I believe that spouses have the right to speak their minds. In his case, he happens to be an ex-president. But my wife Elizabeth speaks her mind. And I think they're entitled to do that. It's a democracy. That's the way it works. People can agree or disagree with what they say, but they're not required to go home and sit around and be quiet. That's just the way I view it."

Edwards, of course, also has a spouse who has been an exceptionally forceful advocate for him on the campaign trail. Indeed, you could argue that Elizabeth has been an even more forceful advocate than Bill has, in the sense that she's greatly amplified her voice without the gigantic megaphone of an ex-president. (Via The Page.)

The Hillary camp moves to frame their expected loss in South Carolina, sending out a new campaign memo from adviser Howard Wolfson that returns to the post-Iowa argument that this race is all about delegate totals:

Regardless of today’s outcome, the race quickly shifts to Florida, where hundreds of thousands of Democrats will turn out to vote on Tuesday...

This remains a delegate fight, with 1,681 delegates at stake on February 5th, and 2,025 needed to secure the nomination -- and we are ahead in that fight.

We'll be blogging today's South Carolina results right here at Election Central. Full memo after the jump.

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In an interview with NBC that was broadcast this morning, Obama said some new and interesting stuff to minimize the political fallout that he and Hillary have been navigating in the wake of their bitter racial dust-ups. For instance, he downplayed his loss of white support in South Carolina:

"Well, I’m not sure that, you know you take one poll, there are other polls that show us getting 19%, 20%, holding pretty steady. But of you also look at this campaign. We’ve won in Iowa. Which is 94% white. We’ve practically tied in New Hampshire. With the same ratios. We’ve won in some of the most diverse states and some least diverse states...

"You’ll recall that early in this campaign everybody was asking am I black enough, right? You know, there's a constant narrative that goes back and forth. What our message has been is consistent. I’m not running as a black or a white candidate."

Obama also denied he'd personally accused the Clintons of racism:

"I didn't have an exchange with Senator Clinton over race. I did not say at any point that I thought they were talking about race. Take a look. There’s not a single quote in which that's been a suggestion I’ve made...I don't view them as having gone after me on the basis of race."

The closest Obama himself came to suggesting this is the following comment about Hillary's Martin Luther King remark: "I think it offended some folks who felt that somehow diminished King's role in bringing about the Civil Rights Act." This doesn't constitute Obama himself making the charge.

However, Obama's interviewer on NBC did say that the Illinois Senator acknowledged that surrogates on both sides had pushed the race story along. Indeed, Obama aide Steve Hildebrand was quoted yesterday as follows:

"The Clintons have always put people in a box — they look at everything through racial lines, gender lines, geographic lines; they tend to segment people...If the Clintons paint him as the black candidate, no one's going to stop them from doing that. They are playing the same old-style games."

Meanwhile, the voting is today in South Carolina, and we'll be blogging the results right here at Election Central.

Separately on the racial dust-up front, New York Times columnist Bob Herbert hit the Clintons hard today -- and even used a single anonymous racist blog posting to bash Bill and Hillary as gleeful about racism.

The Huffington Post reports that Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), the top elected Democrat in the Sunshine State, will endorse Hillary Clinton for president.

Nelson's endorsement probably has something to do with Hillary's newly-announced support for seating the state's delegates, which were taken away by the Democratic National Committee because of the state's rogue primary. Nelson has become champion of the early Florida primary, even unsuccessfully suing the DNC in federal court to have the delegates restored.

Late Update: Nelson put out a press release earlier today, lauding Hillary for her position on seating the Florida delegates. The statement is available after the jump.

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The final SurveyUSA poll in the South Carolina Democratic primary shows Barack Obama on his way to a win, but it's one marked by racial polarization. Obama has 43%, Hillary Clinton 30%, and John Edwards 24%. Only 18% of black respondents said they'd vote for Hillary, and only 21% of whites preferred Obama.

Pollster.com analysts Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin are giving their final takes on the SC polling. Franklin's word of caution to Obama fans is particularly noteworthy: "Obama has appealed to white voters in previous primaries and caucuses. The pre-election polls have found him getting as low as 10% of the white vote in South Carolina. The potential for racial polarization in this Southern state could damage his ability to transcend race as a basis of voting."

Barack Obama's campaign has worked hard to purge itself of any taint from Chicago political patron Tony Rezko giving away $85,000 in contributions that they've identified as being connected to the currently-indicted Illinois Democratic fundraiser.

However, ABC News reports that their review shows yet another $100,000 in contributions that the Obama camp didn't spot. Some of it would seem to be really obvious, too, like checks from Rezko's wife and others from employees of his businesses.

The timing is pretty bad for Obama campaign, in that it highlights the fact that the ties between himself and Rezko are much stronger than anything allegedly revealed this morning, when a photo surfaced of Rezko smiling with Hillary and Bill at some point in the 90s.

Hillary Clinton has now issued a statement about the DNC's action in stripping Michigan and Florida of their delegates due to their rogue primaries. Hillary has called for the delegates from both states to be fully seated.

On a campaign conference call with reporters, one Clinton adviser said that the candidate is really just listening to the voters of those states, and wants them to be heard. "I think that what the senator said is that she's hearing from a lot of people that they'd like to have their voices heard." He then added that he would like to hear from the other candidates where they stand on the issue.

A cynic would note that Hillary was the only major candidate whose name was on the ballot in Michigan, running against "uncommitted," and that she is also favored to win Florida after none of the candidates campaigned in the state.

So what would the actual effect of the Michigan/Florida delegates be? If the nomination is a settled question regardless, then it really doesn't matter, and either Hillary or Obama would ultimately have them seated. But if we were looking at a brokered convention, you'd see the Hillary camp fighting for a floor vote to seat those delegates, and use the issue as a public relations weapon — much like how the brokered conventions of old would have floor fights over the seating of disputed delegations.

The Obama campaign just sent me some audio of an event -- from yesterday, the Obama camp says -- at which Bill Clinton said this:

“The President is not called the Chief Executive Officer of America for nothing. You don’t run the bureaucracy but you are responsible for seeing that your ideas turn into positive changes in other people’s lives.”

Bill's notion that "you don't run the bureaucracy" as President sounds awfully similar to something that Obama said the other day:

"But I'm not an operating officer. Some in this debate around experience seem to think the job of the president is to go in and run some bureaucracy. Well, that's not my job. My job is to set a vision of 'here's where the bureaucracy needs to go.'"

This Obama quote attracted sharp criticism from Hillary, who said that what we really need is a "hands on" president.

This is of course is why the Obama camp is now brandishing this similar remark from Bill himself.

I'm unable as yet to vouch for the context of the Obama quote, but will bring you the fuller context as soon as I'm able. Audio of Bill's quote in a bit.

Late Update: Okay, a transcript containing the full context is after the jump.

It's true that Bill was agreeing with Obama's case that the president doesn't "run the bureaucracy." In addition to this, however, what Bill said here was also partly critical of Obama. Bill was basically saying, "Yes, Obama, you're right, the president doesn't `run the bureaucracy,' but he is the Chief Executive Officer, and he's tasked with not only coming up with a vision, but translating it into reality."

But does Obama really disagree with this? Obama has said that he doesn't view the job as one of CEO. Back in December he said:

"But the president is not the CEO of America, the president is not the COO of America," he said. "The president is someone who sets goals, has a vision for where the country needs to go, is able to gather the absolute best talent around him or her, to evaluate when we're making progress on those goals, to recognize when we're making mistakes and make adjustments, set a new course."

So, while Clinton is saying that they differ on the narrow question of whether the job of president should be characterized as "CEO," and while Obama has certainly certainly stressed the idea that a President's primary task is to set a vision for the country, there's no real evidence that Obama really disagrees in any meaningful way with Bill's idea that the job of president is to set and implement a vision.

Late Late Update: It's also worth noting that whatever distinction Bill did try to draw here, he did agree with Obama's point that a president doesn't "run the bureaucracy."

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The Associated Press reports that Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) will endorse John McCain, just in time for the Florida primary on Tuesday.

The endorsement is definitely a good get for McCain, and might especially help him build up his numbers among the Cuban community.

The Hillary campaign is moving today to engage Obama more directly over the now-notorious comments about the GOP and Reagan. TPM's Eric Kleefeld reports that on a conference call arranged by the Hillary camp, Hillary pollster Mark Penn said:

"President Clinton put this country on a fundamentally different path. He changed the fiscal nature of this country, he changed the international relations of this country…He left the country on a totally different trajectory where people felt they were prepared for the 21st century."

The argument, obviously, is meant to engage not just Obama's "party of ideas" comment, but also his claim that Reagan (and JFK) changed the country in ways that Bill didn't. This, and the radio ad released yesterday in which Bill openly praised his own performance as President, suggest that the Hillary campaign is hoping to turn Obama's comments into a direct argument about the 1990s.

I'm not sure which way the increased emphasis on Bill's presidency cuts -- whether it makes voters nostalgic for the successes of the Clinton presidency, or whether it makes voters more receptive to Obama's "turn the page" argument -- but it seems like this is the tack that the Clinton camp has chosen.

Hillary hits all the morning shows, gets hit with a surprise on NBC: An old photo of her and Bill next to disgraced Obama associate Tony Rezko. NBC's Matt Lauer says that the network "received" the photo and that its date is uncertain; the same pic also popped up on Drudge this morning.

Asked about it, Hillary responds: "I don't know the man. I wouldn’t know him if he walked in the door. I don’t have a 17 year relationship with him. There's a big difference between standing somewhere taking a picture with someone you don't know and haven't seen since, and having a relationship that the newspapers in Chicago have been exploring." Her campaign's official response is here.

To see the Rezko photo, roll the tape...

Liberal champion Russ Feingold is having a tough time choosing between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but he's more than willing to elaborate on his anti-endorsement of John Edwards. In an interview with the Huffington Post, Feingold discussed why he simply doesn't buy the sincerity of Edwards' current positions.

"You have to consider what the audience is, and obviously these are very popular positions to take when you are in a primary where you are trying to get the progressive vote," Feingold said. "But wait a minute — there were opportunities to vote against the bankruptcy bill, there was an opportunity to vote against the China deal. Those are the moments where you sort of find out where somebody is. So I think, people are being taken in a little bit that now he is taking these positions."

Meanwhile (via Ben Smith), here's Edwards' new ad in South Carolina, in which he's depicted as the candidate who is actually serious on the issues, as compared to the sniping between Hillary and Obama:

Obama speaks out again about the Clintons' criticism of him, adding a new layer to his response:

At a morning press conference, though, Obama indicated that the race wasn’t as nasty as some may think, "I don't feel like the candidates are being blooded up," but then added on, "This is good practice for me, so ya know when I take on those Republicans I'll be accustomed to it."

I wonder whether this suggests that Obama is cognizant of the argument from some critics that he'd better realize that the attacks from the Clintons are nothing compared to what he'll face from the GOP should he win the nomination. Clinton supporters, such as James Carville, have taken to saying that Obama's "whining" about the Clintons suggests he's unfit for a general election.

So Obama is signaling that he doesn't think the current acrimony is any big deal and that he knows full what's next.

The new SurveyUSA poll in Florida gives John McCain a very narrow lead over Mitt Romney, who is himself catching up very quickly. Here are the results, compared to the numbers from four days ago:

McCain 30% (+5)
Romney 28% (+9)
Giuliani 18% (-2)
Huckabee 14% (+0)
Paul 6% (-1)

It really does seem like Fred Thompson's exit from the race was a boon for Romney. Fred had 7% support in the previous poll, and it looks like Mitt got the lion's share of it.

Here's some good news for John McCain: The once-moribund candidate was really able to pick up in fundraising this month, taking in more than $7 million — and the month isn't even over yet.

But McCain isn't in the clear yet. In addition to his $3 million in outstanding debts, he'll still have to raise even more money to compete on Super Tuesday and simultaneously campaign in those various states, and all in a very short period of time. And it's not yet known how much of that $7 million he's already had to spend in the primary contests so far.

By comparison, Mitt Romney has had better fundraising overall, and can write himself a big check if he needs more cash.

A new poll of Massachusetts by SurveyUSA shows that the endorsements of Sen. John Kerry and Gov. Deval Patrick haven't helped Barack Obama very much in this Super Tuesday state. Hillary Clinton has a huge lead with 59% support, followed by Barack Obama at 22% and John Edwards with 11%.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney enjoys a healthy lead in his home state: Romney 50%, McCain 29%, Huckabee 7%, Giuliani 6%, and Paul 3%.

The new Zogby poll in South Carolina shows Barack Obama continuing to hold a healthy lead over the rest of the field — and that John Edwards just might be sneaking up on Hillary Clinton for second place. Barack Obama leads with 38% support, followed by Clinton at 25%, and Edwards with 21%.

Some commentary from John Zogby: "The real movement here is by John Edwards, who is the only one who continues to gain ground in our three-day tracking poll ... Can he catch Clinton by Saturday’s vote, perhaps bumping her from a second-place finish? Perhaps that is why she has returned to the state to campaign."

There was a very weird moment during tonight's GOP debate. It started when Tim Russert, inanely, asked Mitt Romney: "How would you run against Hillary and Bill Clinton in November?"

And Romney answered: "I frankly can't wait, because the idea of Bill Clinton back in the White House with nothing to do, is something I just can't imagine. I can't imagine, the American people can't imagine."

Though multiple polls have shown that sizable majorities don't have a problem with this, you'd expect such an answer from a GOP candidate, obviously.

But then, after the debate was over, Chris Matthews just obsessed over Romney's answer. He kept repeating the line about Bill being in the White House with "nothing to do," again and again, with a truly odd grin on his face, as if it had profound significance. Deeply weird.

Mike Huckabee, at the debate a few moments ago:

"The fact is, this country has always been a country where people were able to respect people who had faith, and frankly we ought to be able to respect people who don't have any."

Tolerance alert! Atheists might still be inclined to worry about Huck's desire to bring the Constitution in line with God's will, but perhaps it's a start.

The GOP debate in Florida is underway, and one thing immediately jumped out: Some of the candidates agree that before the war, Saddam -- contrary to President Bush's argument that he had WMDs -- was only trying to acquire them.

Here's what John McCain said:

It was worth getting rid of Saddam Hussein. He had used weapons of mass destruction, and it's clear that he was hell bent on acquiring them.

And here's what Mike Huckabee said:

We owe him our thanks, that he had the courage to recognize there was a potential of weapons of mass destruction, and rather than wait until we had another attack, he went and made sure that it wasn't going to happen from Saddam Hussein.

If memory serves, Bush was definitive on the point -- he said Saddam did have WMDs. Right?

Late Update: Here's video:

Hillary wins the big one, the endorsement of The New York Times:

The sense of possibility, of a generational shift, rouses Mr. Obama’s audiences and not just through rhetorical flourishes. He shows voters that he understands how much they hunger for a break with the Bush years, for leadership and vision and true bipartisanship. We hunger for that, too. But we need more specifics to go with his amorphous promise of a new governing majority, a clearer sense of how he would govern.

The potential upside of a great Obama presidency is enticing, but this country faces huge problems, and will no doubt be facing more that we can’t foresee. The next president needs to start immediately on challenges that will require concrete solutions, resolve, and the ability to make government work. Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.

But how does the paper deal with Hillary's support for the invasion, which The Times opposed?

We opposed President Bush’s decision to invade Iraq and we disagree with Mrs. Clinton’s vote for the resolution on the use of force. That’s not the issue now; it is how the war will be ended. Mrs. Clinton seems not only more aware than Mr. Obama of the consequences of withdrawal, but is already thinking through the diplomatic and military steps that will be required to contain Iraq’s chaos after American troops leave.

The paper's conclusion:

We know that she is capable of both uniting and leading. We saw her going town by town through New York in 2000, including places where Clinton-bashing was a popular sport. She won over skeptical voters and then delivered on her promises and handily won re-election in 2006.

Mrs. Clinton must now do the same job with a broad range of America’s voters. She will have to let Americans see her power to listen and lead, but she won’t be able to do it town by town.

When we endorsed Mrs. Clinton in 2006, we were certain she would continue to be a great senator, but since her higher ambitions were evident, we wondered if she could present herself as a leader to the nation.

Her ideas, her comeback in New Hampshire and strong showing in Nevada, her new openness to explaining herself and not just her programs, and her abiding, powerful intellect show she is fully capable of doing just that. She is the best choice for the Democratic Party as it tries to regain the White House.

Full endorsement here.

The new McClatchy-MSNBC poll in South Carolina finds:

Obama 38%

Hillary 30%

Edwards 19%

According to the pollsters, the race is growing more polarized along racial lines: Only 25% of blacks support Hillary, and only 10% of whites support Obama.

The Hillary campaign just announced that Bill Clinton has gone up on the air for his wife in a new positive South Carolina radio spot -- and it's hard to miss this line:

I want to thank you for twice giving me the chance to serve as president. The 1990s were a time of prosperity. We created more than 22 million new jobs, moved eight million people out of poverty, and turned our economy around.

The line seems designed to be push-back against Obama's claim that the GOP was the "party of ideas" for the last decade and a half. The Hillary camp had an ad up directly attacking Obama for the claim, but that ad came down today.

Now Bill is up on the air personally making the case for his presidential era, only this time in a positive spot. Full script after the jump.

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Rudy Giuliani has two new ads up in Florida, the state where he's making an all-out effort to actually win something.

The first one plays up his links to Reagan, his commitment to lowering taxes, and his proposal for a national catastrophe insurance program:

The second one we actually posted on yesterday. It was originally a Web ad pushing Rudy's call for a national catastrophe fund, but was clearly destined to make it to TV with its catchy music and Southern-accented announcer.

Dennis Kucinich has announced that he is dropping out of the race for the Democratic nomination for president, and will focus on his own re-election bid to the House.

Two factors likely pushed him out of the race: a) The public calendar forced him to choose between continuing his candidacy versus running for re-election, and b) The cable news networks stopped inviting him to debates, due to his very poor showings in the caucuses and primaries so far, thus depriving him of a high-profile venue for promoting his platform.

A truce in the ad wars? For now, anyway. Earlier today CNN reported that the Hillary campaign has yanked their radio ad in South Carolina hitting Obama for saying the GOP is the "party of ideas." The Hillary campaign is claiming that it was scheduled to come down.

Now the Obama campaign has responded in kind with their S.C. ad hitting Hillary for being willing to "say anything" to win. Obama spokesperson Bill Burton tells us: "Once we confirmed that Clinton was taking down her attack ad, we instructed radio stations in South Carolina to take down our response ad."

One of the central struggles between the Obama and Hillary campaigns right now is this: Which of the two can successfully persuade voters that he or she is the fair-fighter being victimized by the other's out-of-control aggression? Which of the two can persuade voters that his or her opponent is using a steady stream of vicious, old-style attack politics to prevent history from being made?

Right now -- if media coverage, pundit opinion, and insider chatter among Dems is any guide -- it's hard not to conclude that Obama is winning this particular spin war handily.

At risk of overgeneralizing, much media coverage and commentary right now appears to be hewing closer to the Obama campaign's chosen narrative, which is roughly that the Clinton machine is using every gutter tactic at its disposal to halt the triumph of new politics and the making of history.

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The vultures are circling around Rudy Giuliani's campaign, waiting for him to drop out after the Florida primary rather than suffer worse humiliation on Super Tuesday — but he says he's staying in even if he loses this Tuesday in the Sunshine State.

"I have no plans to end my campaign," Rudy told reporters today, according to the New York Times. "Of course, I anticipate winning in Florida because I don't go into a campaign anticipating losing. And I have no reason not to anticipate winning. We're very, very competitive."

For those of you keeping score, the latest polls have Rudy in third place in Florida, behind Mitt Romney and John McCain.

The Hillary campaign responds to the Obama camp's memo saying that Hillary is "pulling out all the stops" to win South Carolina by pointing out that a few days ago, Obama hit Hillary for neglecting the state and not taking it seriously.

Here's Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer's retort:

So does the Obama campaign think we are giving up on South Carolina or going all out for it? I guess it depends on the day.

The Hillary campaign sent out the following talking points to surrogates this morning, instructing them on how to talk to the media about Obama's new radio ad attacking her as willing to "say anything" to win. A source forwarded them to us:

Talking Points

SEN. OBAMA’S PERSONAL ATTACK AD

* After months of telling Americans he would run a positive campaign, Senator Obama has launched the most negative, personal attack of this cycle.

* In a new ad airing in South Carolina, Senator Obama outrageously asserts that Senator Clinton will “say anything to get elected.”

* This from a candidate and a campaign who have promised voters a politics of hope and unity, and repeatedly denounced the “slash and burn politics of the past.”

--In August, Senator Obama told the Associated Press that “I’ve been respectful of all the candidates. I would challenge anyone to find a statement I’ve made that has been personal.”

--Earlier this year, Senator Obama’s Chief Strategist David Axelrod told Real Clear Politics, “Do we have a strategy to tear people down? We don't.”

--And just two weeks ago, Senator Obama told Newsweek that he would not “knee cap” his opponents.

* While Senator Obama lashes out at Senator Clinton with personal attacks, Hillary travels to South Carolina today to outline her plan to jumpstart the economy and rebuild the middle class.

* Hillary remains focused on what matters most—providing real solutions to America’s challenges and making a difference in people’s lives.

So if you hear some of this stuff, you'll have an idea of where it might have come from.

Here's another sign of how far downhill one-time frontrunner Rudy Giuliani has fallen: His deputy campaign manager, longtime GOP operative Rick Ahearn, now working as a volunteer.

This piece of information tells us Rudy has not only sunk in the polls — he's probably running out of money, too, if he can't afford to pay his campaign professionals for full-time work.

The Obama campaign rolled out a new argument in a campaign memo today: That Hillary is "pulling out all the stops" to win in South Carolina -- and will "say and do anything" to do it.

The Obama camp has clearly settled on the message that Hillary will "say anything" to win -- the same phrase appeared yesterday in a new Obama radio ad. This memo takes this a step further by fusing that message with an apparent effort to inflate expectations for Hillary by saying that she's "pulling out all the stops" to secure victory in South Carolina.

It should be noted that the other day Obama criticized Hillary for not spending time in the state and hence not taking it seriously.

The memo suggests that the Obama camp might think that they need to deal with the fact that many commentators are presuming a solid South Carolina win for him.

"There’s an old South Carolina saying that goes like this -- some people would rather climb a tree to tell a fib than stand on the ground and tell the truth," the memo says. "The truth is Hillary Clinton’s campaign is pulling out all the stops to win in South Carolina. And it includes saying and doing just about anything to win." Full memo after the jump.

Late Update: The Hillary campaign responds.

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The New York Times reports that Hillary had her Dean Scream moment in New Jersey last night. Sort of, anyway.

Feel the Mittmentum! The new Mason-Dixon poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney grabbing the lead over John McCain:

Romney 30%
McCain 26%
Giuliani 18%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 3%

It's starting to look like McCain tops out somewhere in the mid-high 20s in this key primary — which means that Fred Thompson's withdrawal was the best thing that could have happened to Romney.

Barack Obama has a new radio ad in South Carolina, responding to Hillary Clinton's attack ad against his "party of ideas" comment. The ad's announcer cuts straight to the point: "It's what's wrong with politics today. Hillary Clinton will say anything to get elected."

The ad then goes over Hillary's own praise of Ronald Reagan, and her backing of a particular Republican policy that isn't too popular with the Democratic base — "George Bush's war in Iraq."

The script is available after the jump.

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Mitt Romney's new ad in Florida pitches him as the best candidate to handle the economy and to uphold conservative values, quoting conservative magazines like the Weekly Standard and National Review:

An interesting inclusion is a quote from a June 2007 piece in the Boston Globe — a paper that endorsed John McCain this past December.

In a further sign that Fred Thompson's withdrawal could prove to be a net plus for Mitt Romney in the Florida primary, Romney has now picked up the support of Anita Mitchell, one of Thompson's top fundraisers in the state.

Mitchell told The Hill that Romney's experience as a businessman and CEO of the 2002 Winter Olympics attracted her to Mitt's candidacy, adding that "a lot of the people I brought to the table for Fred will go with Romney."

A very special event happened for the Fred Thompson campaign on Tuesday — besides his official withdrawal from the race, of course. It turns out that after he withdrew via a press release that afternoon, he effectively won something that same night.

National Review reports that the winner of the Louisiana caucuses was an uncommitted slate running under the title of "Pro-Life, Pro-Family," followed by John McCain, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. In fact, the organizers of that "Pro-Life, Pro-Family" slate were almost all Thompson supporters who decided to take that name a few weeks ago, when it became a distinct possibility that he would drop out before the caucuses — which he did that very afternoon.

If Thompson had still been in the race, a Louisiana political source explained to NR, his state delegate strength in Louisiana would have been enough to potentially get him all of the state's 47 national delegates. The one big problem, though, is that he dropped out only hours before he finally won something.

Oh, well. As the late, great Hank Williams would say, Fred's victory came just in time to be too late.

Must-see TV: Bill lays into a reporter big time, suggesting that those covering the racial dust-ups, rather than the issues, are proving that they're "determined to take this election away" from the people of South Carolina...

Also note Bill's strongly worded objection to comments by prominent South Carolina Democrat Dick Harpootlian, an Obama supporter, who charged that some of Bill's recent comments "were reminiscent of Lee Atwater," an extraordinarily over-the-top comparison of the former president to one of the most notoriously dirty political operatives of the last generation.

Barack Obama has a new set of ads out in various February 5 states, yet another sign of how quickly this contest is going national.

This one is running Alabama, Georgia and New Mexico:

More ads after the jump.

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A new poll in Florida by the St. Petersburg Times finds John McCain with only a narrow lead in the Republican primary — a sign that Mitt Romney may be surging thanks to Fred Thompson's withdrawal from the race:

McCain 25%
Romney 23%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 15%

The Obama campaign has officially submitted a complaint to the Nevada Democratic Party, citing over 1,600 complaints of malfeasance by the Clinton operation during this weekend's past caucuses. Alleged offenses include early door closings, obstruction voters, and improper handling of voter preference cards.

It's hard to tell just what impact this complaint could have, if any. If it leads to actual infractions by the Hillary operation being uncovered, it might reflect badly on them nationwide — or alternatively, the complaint itself could give Obama's rivals the opening to call him a "sore loser," regardless of whether or not the complaint is accurate.

Two new polls out today give Mitt Romney the lead in the Florida primary, an apparent sign that he's the biggest winner from Fred Thompson quitting the race.

From InsiderAdvantage: Romney 24%, Giuliani 19%, McCain 18%, Huckabee 12%.

From Public Policy Polling (D): Romney 28%, McCain 25%, Giuliani 19%, Huckabee 15%.

If Mitt Romney were to win Florida, he would not only take over 50 delegates in this winner-take-all contest — he would also throw John McCain right off his game a week before Super Tuesday.

This could stir this whole battle up again, but it's noteworthy. Guess who also called the GOP the "party of ideas," in a fashion similar to the way Obama did?

Daniel Patrick Moynihan, who held Hillary's New York Senate seat until she took it over in 2001 with his blessing. Hillary praised Moynihan after his 2003 death as "one of the greatest minds of our time."

Our source for this is Paul Krugman (a persistent Obama critic), who opened his 1994 book, Peddling Prosperity, as follows:

In 1981 Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan uttered a startling pronouncement: "The Republicans," he declared, "are now the party of ideas." Moynihan was and is a moderate Democrat. He once served in the Nixon administration, and he earned the ire of many 1960s liberals both by his willingness to talk about the disintegration of black families and by his authorship of a leaked memo suggesting that the race issue be treated with "benign neglect." By 1980, however, the rightward shift of American politics had put Moynihan's positions well to the left of center, so this was a self-punishing admission.

Why would Moynihan say such a thing? Because as an unusually bookish politican, a former Harvard professor who prided himself on his intellectual honesty, Moynihan felt compelled to admit the impact of conservative ideas on American social thought, above all in economics. His generosity was refreshing and also ironic; for it came just at the moment when conservatism was simultaneously seizing real power and losing its soul, experiencing a process of intellectual and moral debasement.

A Nexis search confirms that the quote is accurate and that Moynihan expressed various versions of the sentiment.

It's worth pointing out that Moynihan made this statement roughly 27 years ago, which puts it considerably earlier than the period Obama was referring to, though Moynihan was talking about an era of GOP dominance in the "ideas" arena that he appeared to envision as having just gotten underway.

As Krugman notes, Moynihan often liked to flirt with the GOP and the conservative movement and its ideas, and was more conservative than many Dems. And as Krugman also notes, whatever the dominance of conservative "ideas," the reality was that the conservative movement entered into a period of "intellectual and moral debasement," an assessment that to my knowledge is considerably harsher than anything we've heard from Obama.

Nonetheless, this is clearly something that the Obama camp will be able to use in its defense.

Late Update: I am emphatically not endorsing Moynihan's views here.

Late Late Update: A commenter below writes the following about this post:

He's endorsing Krugman's point of view...in essence Greg is saying that Obama fails to offer the correct, Krugmanian truth, as Krugman sees it and writes it.

This is pretty much where I'm at. I think Krugman captures this with all appropriate nuance. I'd argue that Obama's quotes about Reagan and the GOP were overly praiseworthy in tone and perhaps don't accurately reflect Obama's views of the matter in all their nuance. Obama has not (to my knowledge) stepped up and offered Krugman's shading clearly enough.

Despite this, it's also true that the Clintons have misrepresented what Obama said in some ways and made it sound perhaps more controversial than it really was, which I think is driven home by the airing of the Moynihan quote.

Did Edwards tell a roomful of donors that Hillary privately told him after the last debate that there's more to come on the Obama Rezko story that has yet to be made public?

An Edwards contributor tells The New York Observer that Edwards made the claim at a private fundraiser last night. The Observer directly quotes the donor's account of what Edwards said:

He said that Hillary and Obama have true dislike for each other and that after the most recent debate Hillary mentioned to John in passing that there’s more about Obama and that “slum landlord” [Rezko] that has yet to be disclosed to the public.

The Observer notes that "the source said that Edwards gave no indication that Hillary suggested that it was her campaign that had the Rezko-dirt." And indeed it would be unlikely that Hillary would confide such a thing to an opponent even if it were true.

Interestingly, the response from the Edwards campaign to The Observer, which very generally calls the account "bungled," doesn't really deny (or confirm) that the discussion took place:

Edwards has told reporters he's not going to talk about conversations with other candidates, but based on Monday night's debate with Obama using Wal-Mart and Hillary using Rezko, anyone who thinks this is over missed Senator Clinton's statement that they're just getting warmed up.

Late Update: The Clinton campaign is denying this version of events. The Observer adds this:

UPDATE: Clinton campaign spokesman Jay Carson emailed to say Edwards’ remarks about Hillary Clinton's remarks, as conveyed by the attendee at the fund-raiser, are “not an accurate account of their conversation.”

The Obama campaign has just sent out to reporters audio and script of a negative Hillary radio spot hitting him over that now-infamous interview in which Obama called Republicans the "party of ideas." Note that the ad uses Obama's own voice.

VOICE-OVER: “Listen to Barack Obama last week talking about Republicans.

BARACK OBAMA: “The Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time there over the last 10, 15 years.”

VO: “Really? Aren’t those the ideas that got us into the economic mess we’re in today? Ideas like special tax breaks for Wall Street. Running up a $9 trillion debt. Refusing to raise the minimum wage or deal with the housing crisis. Are those the ideas Barack Obama’s talking about?”

BO: “The Republicans were the party of ideas.”

VO: Hillary Clinton thinks this election is about replacing disastrous Republican ideas with new ones, like jump-starting the economy. Putting an immediate freeze on foreclosures and mortgages. Cutting taxes for the middle class. And creating millions of new jobs. With the economy in crisis, we need a president with the ideas, the solutions that get our economy working for all of us. Hillary Clinton. Solutions for America.

The Hillary ad implies -- without quite stating outright -- that Obama said he favored specific GOP ideas, which he didn't really do, though he did say that the GOP's ideas ran counter to "conventional wisdom." Stay tuned for audio.

Late Update: Here's the audio:

As promised below, here's our longer post, with video, about ABC's report yesterday on Obama's allegedly "testy" exchange with a reporter in South Carolina.

In a new ad in Florida, John McCain pitches himself as the best candidate to protect us from both radical Islamists and economic problems:

Rudy Giuliani has been running as the best guy to fight the terrorists, and Mitt Romney's retooled pitched is that he's the businessman who will best manage the economy. McCain's new spot is clearly meant to counter both of them in one single ad: "There's no one who will work harder to protect our shores, and protect your pocketbooks."

Rudy Giuliani has a new ad in Florida, pitching himself as the only Republican candidate in favor of a new government program to provide for disaster insurance, an obvious ploy to extend his 9/11 brand to any kind of catastrophe. It might sound dry to many Americans, but it's a hot local issue for Florida and other hurricane-prone states — and just to prove how local an issue this is, this particular ad's announcer has a Southern accent:

Rudy's campaign is hitting this issue hard. Just yesterday, Rudy's top Florida endorser, Attorney General Bill McCollum, said that John McCain was "out of touch" with Florida for opposing a national insurance fund.

Hillary Clinton has a new pair of ads out, targeting the February 5 states. Here's the first one, in which she promises to take away tax breaks from the oil companies, and put the money to work on developing alternative energy sources instead:

A second ad, hitting President Bush over the housing crisis, is available after the jump.

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John McCain's rapid rise to frontrunner status has apparently come with a serious opportunity cost — he'll have to take time off the campaign trail to raise the money he wasn't able to bring in last year. The Hill reports that McCain has scheduled at least seven big fundraisers this week, while opponents Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani will be free to campaign non-stop in Florida.

McCain is going to need a lot of money — one expert estimated that a week of advertising in California alone, a key February 5 state, will cost $4.5-$5 million. And in contrast to McCain, Mitt Romney could potentially give himself the check he'd need for something like that.

At a campaign event in South Carolina today, Barack Obama got into a bit of a row with a reporter after being asked: "Are you allowing President Clinton to get in your head?"

Here's ABC News' account:

It took Obama three tries to answer the question, in what turned into a testy exchange with the New York Times' Jeff Zeleny following a campaign event in Greenwood, South Carolina.

"I am trying to make sure that his statements by him are answered. Don't you think that's important?" Obama shot back, while walking away.

When Zeleny yelled a follow up question suggesting the Illinois senator had not answered the question, Obama fired back angrily, "Don't try cheap stunts like that."

Obama then returned to the reporter:

"I will answer your question, though off the record. Would you like to talk off the record?" Obama asked, to which Zeleny motioned toward the gaggle of TV cameras gathered around him, demonstrating that it was impossible to answer off the record right then.

After commingling with supporters a bit more and shaking some more hands, Obama then concluded to the reporter: "My suspicion is that the other side must be rattled if they’re continuing saying false things about us."

It's not clear what this account means when it says that it "took Obama three tries" to answer the question, and the query seems like a pretty inane one to begin with. Maybe video will surface of the moment so we can see whether this was really as bad as it was made to sound here.

Late Update: Okay, this is really bad. As I said above, we would need to see video to see if this was really as bad as ABC said it was. The video is here.

Very clearly, ABC badly mischaracterized what happened here. ABC said that this was a "testy exchange," characterized Obama has having "shot back" to the reporter, and even said that he "fired back angrily."

Obviously, the tone of the exchange wasn't anything like this. Our headline was based on ABC's reporting, and as a result, it too mischaracterized what happened.

We'll be bringing you a longer post on this with embedded video shortly.

Late Late Update: Our new post on this, with video, is right here.

Just how panicked is Rudy Giuliani starting to look? After initially trying to play in various other states and then pulling out in order to bet it all on Florida, he's now downplaying the need to win a primary even in Florida.

In an interview on Fox News today, Rudy was asked by Neil Cavuto if he needed to win in the Sunshine State. "I don't think any candidate ever puts himself in a corner and says, must win, have to win, must win," Rudy said.

More tidbits of news from the Florida GOP primary after the jump.

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It's bad enough that Rudy struggling in Florida, the state that represents his last hopes. Making matters worse still, it turns out this is happening despite the fact that he's sinking tons of cash into the state.

Check out this little nugget buried in the New York Daily News:

Giuliani's Florida decline comes as he has flooded the state with money and resources -- including having 50 paid staffers in four state offices and spending more than $1 million on advertising since Christmas.

At this point, sources said, he is spending about $350,000 a day on TV ads, a pace that would leave him essentially broke after Florida's Jan. 29 primary.

Ooof. That's a healthy sum for Florida advertising -- yet despite that, Rudy is showing up in third or fourth place in most polls.

That Rudy might essentially be broke after Florida leaves little doubt what his next move would be should he lose by a sizable margin -- drop out of the race. Worse, the campaign is making no efforts to deny that this might happen. Asked if he'd drop out upon losing, Rudy's top strategist said: "I don't know. I mean, that's going to be Rudy's decision."

Ooof.

In a surprise announcement, first-term Missouri Gov. Matt Blunt (R), son of House Minority Whip Roy Blunt, announced that he will not seek re-election this year.

Polls were consistently showing Blunt losing to the state's longtime Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon, but it is unclear how Nixon might perform against a stronger Republican.

Obama expands a bit on his running argument that he's more electable than HIllary in an interesting interview with CBN News' David Brody:

Brody: Will Hillary be a drag for down-ticket races as a presidential candidate?

Obama: I think there is no doubt that she has higher negatives than any of the remaining democratic candidates. That's just a fact and there are some who will not vote for her. If you look at the results in Nevada, for example, she eked out the popular vote victory over me, but I ended up winning more delegates because she got almost all of her votes from Clark County, Las Vegas and some of the traditional democratic areas. We got votes there, but we also got votes in northern Nevada and rural conservative regions of the state that traditionally don't vote Democratic, but were excited about my campaign.

I have no doubt that once the nomination contest is over, I will get the people who voted for her. Now the question is can she get the people who voted for me? And I think that describes sort of one of the choices that people have, just a practical choice, as they move forward.

Thus the win of the delegate count in Nevada -- despite the loss of the popular contest -- becomes an argument for Obama's electability. I hadn't yet heard Obama make the case in quite these terms. (Via The Page.)

As noted here the other day, Hillary and Obama got into a skirmish over the significance of Magic Johnson's career after the basketball great cut a radio ad for her suggesting that while Obama might be a hyped "rookie," just as Magic was in his first year, what we need in a president is someone more akin to a team captain.

But as many readers informed us, Johnson's captain during his "hyped" rookie year was none other than Obama supporter Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. And now Abdul-Jabbar himself has weighed in on his onetime protege's claims about the presidential race in an interview with The Huffington Post's Nico Pitney.

"I don't think he's a rookie," Abdul-Jabbar said of Obama to HuffPo. "He's served as a senator very capably, and he is very skilled in terms of his ability to organize and lead people. And that's what we need right now."

The rest of Abdul-Jabbar's interview here.

Hilary Clinton has a new ad in South Carolina, in which she promises to look out for the average American, and not the oil companies, drug companies and predatory lenders, as the Bush Administration has done:

The ad is just the sort of spot that one would expect to see from a frontrunner — Hillary contrasts herself with the Bush Administration and the status quo, rather than attempt any comparisons with her intra-party competition.

(Via Ben Smith)

Ending the suspense around a question that preoccupied lots of people in Dem circles today, The State, the largest paper in South Carolina, gives the nod to Obama:

The restoration of the Clintons to the White House would trigger a new wave of all-out political warfare. That is not all Bill and Hillary’s fault -- but it exists, whomever you blame, and cannot be ignored. Hillary Clinton doesn’t pretend that it won’t happen; she simply vows to persevere, in the hope that her side can win. Indeed, the Clintons’ joint career in public life seems oriented toward securing victory and personal vindication.

Sen. Obama’s campaign is an argument for a more unifying style of leadership. In a time of great partisanship, he is careful to talk about winning over independents and even Republicans. He is harsh on the failures of the current administration -- and most of that critique well-deserved. But he doesn’t use his considerable rhetorical gifts to demonize Republicans. He’s not neglecting his core values; he defends his progressive vision with vigorous integrity. But for him, American unity -- transcending party -- is a core value in itself...

Sen. Obama would also have the best chance to repair the damage to America’s global reputation. A leader with his biography -- including his roots in Africa and his years spent growing up overseas -- could transform the world’s view of America. He would seize that opportunity...

Sen. Obama is the only Democrat who plausibly can say that he wants to work with Americans across the political spectrum to address such subjects-- and that he has the integrity and the skills of persuasion that make him the best-qualified among the remaining Democratic hopefuls to address these challenges.

He would be a groundbreaking nominee. More to the point, he makes a solid case that he is ready to lead the whole country. We see Sen. Barack Obama as the best choice in Saturday’s Democratic primary.

Here's the statement, just out from what's left of Fred Thompson's campaign:

"Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."

Guess that manly after-shave and those shoulders that you can land a Space Shuttle on didn't end up working out for him.

Late Update: It appears that I have my pundit man-love poetry scrambled. It was Mitt Romney, not Fred, who was praised by The Politico's Roger Simon for having "shoulders you could land a 737 on." Apologies for the mix-up.

It should also be noted that Fred is a man of many manly scents. Chris Matthews not only praised Fred's "sex appeal" based on his after-shave; he also enthused about the whiff of "cigar smoke" that apparently hovers around the former candidate.

Either way, we stand by our original assertion that the whiff of manliness that Matthews detected around Fred just didn't get him very far as a candidate.

In a speech today in South Carolina, Barack Obama pledged to pursue an economically populist course and to stay realistic and build coalitions — and worked in a jibe against Hillary Clinton, too. Key quote:

In the debate last night, we spent some time talking about the economy. And one of the things I brought up that concerned me was that when Senator Clinton first released her economic stimulus plan, she didn't think that workers or seniors needed immediate tax relief. She thought it could wait until things got worse. Five days later, the economy didn't really change, but the politics apparently did, because she changed her plan to look just like mine.

The full prepared speech is available after the jump.

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John Edwards has a new ad in South Carolina, attacking both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for taking money from drug companies (Obama) and lobbyists (Clinton), then presenting "our John Edwards" as the alternative for South Carolinians:

"What's happened to the Democratic Party?" the announcer asks. "Whatever happened to the party of the people?"

(Via Ben Smith)

On a conference call with reporters, Obama just responded to the Hillary campaign's increasingly frequent claim that he's "frustrated" by his losses in New Hampshire and Nevada.

"It's very clear that Senator Clinton has been spending the last month attacking me in ways that are not accurate," Obama said. He then reiterated his criticism of Hillary for saying recently that the acrimonious phase of campaigns is the "fun part."

"I don't think it's the 'fun part' to fudge the truth," Obama said, adding: "If you get the kind of looseness with the facts that [the Clinton team has] displayed, that erodes people's trust in government...It makes them cynical."

Obama continued: "It's important for our campaign to not only make sure that the record is correct...but also that we are sending a message to voters that we're going to bring about a different kind of politics over the long term."

So, on this particular skirmish, both sides have dug in with their messages. Obama is back to arguing that Hillary's criticism of him and her alleged mendacity signal a need for a pure new brand of politics, of which he is a beacon. Hillary, meanwhile, isn't diverting from her message that Obama's criticism of her is born of "frustration" over his losses.

Relatedly, Camp Hillary's repeated and very conscious use of the word "frustrated" -- rather than more ordinary slurs such as "angry" and "desperate" -- seems suggestive. It seems designed to subtly imply a mental fragility, an inability to remain cool under pressure -- an implication that dovetails with the Hillary campaign's larger message that she's tested and ready for the presidency in a way he isn't.

Here's a first look at a video that the Hillary campaign has just created hitting Obama on health care. It purports to show that Obama -- contrary to what he said at the debate yesterday -- advocated for single payer health care in principle and in practice in a speech he gave to the AFL-CIO on June 30, 2003.

Take a look at the vid, which the Hillary campaign sent our way:

Here's Obama's 2003 quote, as transcribed by the Hillary campaign:

“So the challenge is, how do we get federal government to take care of this business? I happen to be a proponent of a single payer health care program. I see no reason why the United States of America the wealthiest country in the history of the world, spending 14% of its Gross National Product on health care cannot provide basic health insurance to everybody. And that’s what Jim is talking about when he says everybody in, nobody out.

"A single payer health care plan, a universal health care plan. And that’s what I’d like to see. And as all of you know, we may not get their immediately. Because first we have to take back the White House, we have to take back the Senate, we have to take back the House.”

This video -- one of many official campaign videos hitting the opposition that we've seen this cycle -- represents an official statement by the Hillary campaign, and hence is news. We'll be digging into it and will bring you more in a bit.

Late Update: In response, the Obama campaign argues that his position on single payer has been entirely consistent.

Bill Clinton held a press conference this morning -- yet another sign that he isn't heeding the view of many commentators that he risks damaging Hillary's candidacy -- and during the question and answer session, he came up with a novel response to Obama's claim yesterday that he sometimes thinks he's running against both Clintons.

Bill's reply: It's Obama who has been running against me.

Here's the exchange:

QUESTIONER: “Is Obama running against you, or Hillary Clinton or both of you?”

PRESIDENT CLINTON: “Oh, I don’t know, I thought he was running against me for a while there in Nevada when he said that Republicans had most of the new ideas and you had to challenge the conventional wisdom of the ’90s. I thought we challenged the conventional wisdom of the 90s.”

Late Update: I cut the last sentence of this post because it was, well, factually wrong. Apologies.

At a press conference this morning in Washington, Hillary Clinton was asked about last night's contentious debate, and she returned to a theme of her campaign in recent days — that Obama is "frustrated."

"I think what we saw last night is that he's very frustrated," Hillary said. "The events of the last ten or so days, particularly the outcomes in New Hampshire and Nevada, have apparently convinced him to adopt a different strategy." She then added that Obama came to the debate "looking for a fight."

The campaign has been using this theme quite a lot in the last few days, calling Obama "frustrated." Having the candidate herself use the terms clearly shows that they think it's a good line to follow.

Late Update: This morning, Bill Clinton responded to Obama's claim that he's running against both Clintons.

Late Late Update: Obama himself replies directly to Hillary's assertion that he's "frustrated" by his losses.

If Bill Clinton is concerned that his conduct threatens to damage Hillary's candidacy, as many commentators are suggesting, he isn't showing it.

The fomer President just told reporters that he plans to stay in South Carolina through the primary.

More on this here.

Mitt Romney has a new ad out in Florida, in which the candidate talks about his experience as a a businessman and his ideas for how to fix the economy:

Taking this approach makes sense for Romney — John McCain has the national security experience, and Mike Huckabee is cornering the market for Christian conservatives. So as he did in Michigan, Romney is finding his niche: Managerial know-how.

The debate is in its free-form section right now, and after a spirited debate between the three Dems about race and who's best equipped to carry on the struggles ahead, Hillary said:

What better way to celebrate the legacy of Dr. King than to look at this stage, right here tonight.

I'm going to say this again: As ugly as this primary has been at times, the bottom line is that Hillary and Obama, and Edwards perhaps to a slightly lesser extent, are formidable and impressive figures who have the potential to be important historical figures, and Dems are lucky to have this array of choices before them.

Separately, there was a kind of poignant moment that drove home just how hard it's been for Edwards to get heard when he's competing with the first African American and first woman with a real shot at the presidency. Obama said:

There's no doubt that in a race where you've got an African-American, and a woman, and — and, John — there's no doubt that that has piqued interest.

As grueling as this is, and whatever the outcome, this contest is likely to be the most riveting and historically significant of our generation, and we'll be sorry when it's over.

Here it is: Video of tensions finally boiling over between Hillary and Obama at tonight's South Carolina debate....

Watching this, you can see that things were forced to a head by the attacks that Bill waged on Obama in the closing days of the Nevada caucuses. There's something weirdly salutary about it, as if both candidates were dying to lay into each other this aggressively but had held back, until now...

The debate is getting very hot right now -- the tensions between Hillary and Obama just boiled over for the first time in a genuine way. We'll bring you more of that in a sec.

For now, check out this great line from Obama on getting double-teamed by Hillary and Bill:

"I can't tell who I'm running against at times."

Since we think the Edwards campaign should still get coverage, even if his candidacy is a long shot, we're gonna highlight this. Just moments before the start of the South Carolina debate, the Edwards campaign sent out a letter from Martin Luther King III, the son of the slain civil rights leader, hailing Edwards' success in focusing the campaign on poverty issues.

"You have almost single-handedly made poverty an issue in this election," King wrote to Edwards.

Look, this is true. When the history of this race is written, it will register that Edwards had a salutary effect on the debate during this campaign on multiple issues, poverty only being one of them. Full letter after the jump.

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...and ominously, CNN's Wolf Blitzer, who's moderating the debate, just said that the second part of the debate will be free form. Blitzer said it will be basically a freewheeling discussion among the candidates.

We'll see how it goes.

We're blogging the debate right here at Election Central. Stay with us.

Jason Horowitz of The New York Observer reports that he overheard top Hillary adviser Howard Wolfson suggesting in a phone call with a Florida elected official that the Florida no-campaign pledge "agreement is off" and that Hillary might reconsider coming to the state.

This was in reaction to the news today that Obama's new national ad is airing in Florida, a possible violation of the pledge agreed upon by the leading Dem candidates not to campaign there to punish the state for moving up its primary in violation of DNC rules. This is the "agreement" that Wolfson was referring to.

The Hillary campaign opened fire on the Obama camp in a conference call with reporters today, accusing Obama of breaking the pledge. That prompted Obama spokesperson Bill Burton to issue a statement saying that “both national cable networks told us it would be impossible for us to run advertising nationally that excluded only Florida."

The DNC has stripped Florida of its delegates, so any win in Florida would be symbolic -- enabling the winner to proclaim a popular mandate. As of now, it's too early to say how this will play out; the Hillary campaign is refusing to say anything about Wolfson's overheard comments. But if the Hillary campaign does seize on this Obama ad as an opening to enter Florida, it could open up yet another front in the war between the two.

The Politicker has the scoop: According to a Clinton campaign source, Hillary will be spending much of the week leading up to the South Carolina primary elsewhere, in Feb. 5th states. She'll be back in S.C. on Friday.

The Hillary campaign, which has been dramatically eclipsed among African American voters by Obama, sees an uphill climb in South Carolina, whose Dem primary electorate is roughly half black. Bill and Chelsea will be campaigning there tomorrow. (Via Ben Smith.)

Late Update: The Hillary campaign tells me that she will be in the state Thursday and Friday, and of course on Saturday, the day of the primary.

The new SurveyUSA poll in Florida, conducted the day after the South Carolina primary, shows John McCain maintaining his lead here — but without any noticeable bounce as of yet. Here are the new numbers, compared to the poll released a week ago:

McCain 25% (+0)
Giuliani 20% (-3)
Romney 19% (+1)
Huckabee 14% (-4)
Thompson 7% (-2)
Paul 7% (+3)

Barack Obama met today with editors of South Carolina's largest newspaper, The State. In the meeting, he hit Bill again for lying about his candidacy -- and broadened his attack to include the national media.

The State has the story:

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama said Monday one of the biggest frustrations of his presidential bid is dealing with national media that he says doesn’t correct inaccuracies about his candidacy and his record...

Obama, speaking Monday morning to State newspaper editors, cited as an example the reporting of his remarks about President Ronald Reagan as an inaccuracy that hasn’t been corrected...

Obama continued criticism of what he says is a strategy by the Clinton campaign to use former President Bill Clinton to attack him.

“There is a concrete strategy by the Clintons,” Obama said, saying the former president has attacked his war record unfairly and with inaccurate information.

Now, without a full transcript or video -- which I'm trying to get -- I don't want to delve too deeply into this. Suffice it to say for now that the Obama camp very clearly has made a decision to shift gears and respond to Bill Clinton much more aggressively than they had in the past.

Perhaps the Nevada loss drove home that the previous responses to Bill were ineffective and that Bill's broadsides are working better than expected. More in a bit.

Late Update: The State account specifies that Obama told the paper he wasn't praising Reagan's policies. "Obama said was making a point that Reagan reached across party lines in order to snare a large majority of American voters that made it easier for him to push his agenda," the paper reports.

This is getting interesting. In an interview with me a couple of minutes ago, senior Hillary adviser Howard Wolfson claimed that Obama's assertion this morning that Bill Clinton is fibbing about his campaign is a "right wing talking point."

Wolfson was responding to my questions about Obama's Good Morning America appearance this morning, in which Obama claimed that Bill has been dissembling badly about Obama campaign tactics. Obama also charged that Bill has been dissembling regularly about the Illinois Senator's consistent opposition to the Iraq war and about Obama's claim that the GOP has been the "party of ideas."

"From time to time the Obama campaign has used right-wing talking points against Bill and Hillary Clinton," Wolfson said at one point in response to questions about Obama's appearance. Asked whether Obama's claim that Bill is fibbing is one of them, Wolfson said: "Yes."

The assertion that calling Bill a liar is a "right wing" attack escalates the battle over today's Obama interview. And it's heavily suggestive, because it seems to imply that Obama's claims are of a piece with charged moments in the past when the right has attacked Bill for his mendacity.

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Mitt Romney has a new Spanish ad running in South Florida, narrated by his Spanish-speaking son Craig:

"Mitt Romney's record speaks for itself: successful as a businessman, saved the Olympics, and as Governor of Massachusetts, lowered taxes and stimulated the economy," Craig Romney says, according to the campaign's official translation. "But above all, Mitt Romney is a family man, a great father, husband and grandfather. I know because Mitt Romney is my Dad."

Rudy Giuliani also has a Spanish ad in South Florida, available after the jump.

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In a sign of just how quickly the Dem primary is becoming a national contest, the Obama campaign is running this new ad nationally on the cable nets.

The ad is a pretty straightforward bio spot, recapping for a national audience his decision to eschew a lucrative law career in favor of community organizing and public service. It also returns to where the campaign began, unabashedly hitting his "uniter, not divider" theme again and again...

A new Rasmussen poll in Florida shows that Mitt Romney's intense campaigning (and TV advertising) here might be paying off. Here are the numbers, compared to last week's poll:

Romney 25% (+7)
McCain 20% (+1)
Giuliani 19% (+1)
Huckabee 13% (-4)
Thompson 12% (+1)
Paul 5% (+0)

Can Mitt keep it up, or will John McCain be able to ride the momentum from his South Carolina victory? A win here would be big for the delegate count — the Florida primary is winner-take-all.

In a move that looks as if it's designed to push back on the false Obama Muslim smears in South Carolina -- where the Muslim smear email has been circulating fast and furious of late -- the Obama camp has dropped some new lit proclaiming his committed Christianity.

Click on the image below to enlarge:

Late Update: Glenn Greenwald makes a persuasive case that the brochure "seems designed with a far broader purpose: namely, to signify to South Carolina's many Christian voters that Obama is one of them and therefore should have their vote for President, much the way that Huckabee sought to court the evangelical vote that was so critical to the GOP Iowa caucus."

Will John Edwards manage to win a single contest in all of Campaign 2008? Even his aides don't think so, according to the New York Times:

But his aides have said privately that they do not expect Mr. Edwards to win a single primary state. And the results of the Nevada caucuses threw the campaign’s top advisers into hours of strategy meetings Saturday night, debating how the shellshocked campaign could feasibly continue.

In the end, the campaign held onto its longstanding position of simply hanging on. "There’s just no reason not to go to South Carolina, pick up delegates and watch the dynamics of the race play out for a while," one adviser said.

It's looking like Edwards' goal now is to pick up enough delegates to force a brokered convention, where Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would have to make some kind of deal with him. Will he have enough money, and get enough votes, to actually pull it off?

South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn, who has questioned Hillary and Bill's racial comments, says in a new interview that he thinks the attacks could help Barack Obama by toughening him up, should he face more of the same -- or worse -- in a general election:

"Campaigns for primaries are a part of the preliminaries," he says. "And you've got to get toughened up in the preliminaries in order to do well in the finals. So it seems to me that if we know this kind of thing's out there, you would do well to experience this during the preliminaries so that you will know how to adjust to it or react to it when you get into the finals. And so I would say, as unfair as some of this may be, get used to it. Because if you're around for the general election, you're going to have to come face to face with it."

So in a way, the Clintons and their surrogates are doing Obama a favor?

"Could well be," Clyburn says. "Whoever's doing this could very well be doing this guy a great favor. Because if he survives it, he'll be a much better candidate. If he doesn't survive it, he wouldn't survive it."

Worth pondering.

John McCain is set to go up on the air in Florida, where his rivals Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani have already been been heavily advertising. Jonathan Martin reports that the McCain camp will run this ad, which was previously aired in New Hampshire:

Here it is: Video of Obama hitting back hard against Bill Clinton on Good Morning America today.

In the interview, Obama sharply questioned Bill's recent attacks on him, repeatedly saying that they were false. Indeed, Obama went further and directly said that when Bill criticized Obama's Reagan comments, he was "making it up."

The remarks are far and away the most aggressive push-back against Bill we've seen from Obama since the former President emerged as Hillary's chief surrogate. Indeed, Obama explicitly drew attention to the extent to which Bill is playing his new self-designated role, saying:

"We've got a formidable opponent -- actually, two formidable opponents, at this point, between Senator Clinton and President Clinton."

Asked if he felt that he was taking on "two candidates," Obama replied:

"There's no doubt that having President Clinton on trail spending most of his time attacking me, it can be a distraction." He added, however, that his wife's advocacy on his behalf "balances" things.

More on this soon.

Looks like Rudy's 9/11 Tourette's -- his constant mentions of his own Churchillian heroism that day -- isn't doing much to help him in the state that was the victim of the attacks. A new Siena College poll finds that Rudy is trailing John McCain by double digits in, of all places, New York:

McCain 36%
Rudy 24%
Romney 10%
Huckabee 7%
Thompson 6%

Key number: For the first time in Siena polling, Rudy's unfavorability rating tops his favorability number, 48%-44%. It seems likely to me that this shift is directly related to the big revelations about Bernie Kerik and Rudy's City Hall accounting shenanigans, which probably remind New Yorkers of the pre-9/11 Rudy that they all know so well. Perhaps it's also a backlash against Rudy's constant invocations of 9/11 on the campaign trail, too.

So much for Rudy's big state strategy. If Rudy is still around to lose the New York primary on Feb. 5, it would be hard to imagine a more humiliating turn of events for a campaign that seems determined to make it as dignity-free for its principal as possible.

Separately, it should be noted that The Huffington Post had advance word on this poll on Saturday.

Late Update: A second poll, from Marist College, shows McCain leading Rudy 34%-19% in New York. Perhaps even worse for Rudy, he's actually tied for second with Mitt Romney.

John McCain won the endorsements of three major Florida newspapers over the weekend: The Orlando Sentinel, the Palm Beach Post, and the Gainesville Sun.

Going into Florida after his win in South Carolina, the papers' endorsements certainly couldn't hurt.

Barack Obama spoke today at Atlanta's famous Ebenezer Baptist Church, the home church of Martin Luther King, Jr. In his speech, he discussed the need for unified action in solving the social problems of our time. "We have walls - barriers to justice and equality - that must come down," Obama said. "And to do this, we know that unity is the great need of this hour."

Obama also singled out the black community itself in his call for moral change: "We have scorned our gay brothers and sisters instead of embracing them. The scourge of anti-Semitism has, at times, revealed itself in our community. For too long, some of us have seen immigrants as competitors for jobs instead of companions in the fight for opportunity."

The full text of the speech is available here.

A new poll from the University of Connecticut gives Hillary Clinton and John McCain the leads in their respective primaries for this Super Tuesday state:

Democrats:
Clinton 41%
Obama 27%
Edwards 9%

Republicans:
McCain 39%
Giuliani 16%
Romney 11%
Huckabee 8%
Thompson 6%

Some more bad news for Rudy, with his February 5 strategy: The Connecticut Republican primary is a winner-take-all contest — so if he lost here by even one point, he wouldn't get a single delegate.

This happened in a blur late yesterday, so it seems worth a quick revisit to clarify what happened. Yesterday the Hillary and Obama campaigns were battling over who actually won the most delegates, with the Obama campaign and the Associated Press saying the real tally was 13 for the Illinois Senator, and 12 for Hillary.

The Hillary campaign countered that no delegates get officially awarded until April. As noted here yesterday, the Nevada State Democratic Party released this statement to clarify things:

"No national convention delegates were awarded. That said, if the delegate preferences remain unchanged between now and April 2008, the calculations of national convention delegates being circulated by the Associated Press are correct. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support."

So it appears likely that the AP's count will stand, and that Obama will end up having won one more delegate last night. The Obama camp is trying to invest this with significance by pointing out that the Hillary camp was describing the race as a battle for delegates after their Iowa loss.

On the other hand, though final tallies aren't yet available, all indications are that the Hillary campaign enjoyed a clear electoral win last night, which the political opinion-making class, and perhaps also the voters, will likely see as having a good deal more significance than Obama's one-delegate advantage.

So where are we in terms of delegates counts? Here's the current breakdown among Dems, according to CNN:

Hillary 210

Obama 123

Edwards 52

And among Repubicans:

Romney 72

McCain 38

Huckabee 29

Thompson 8

Paul 6

Rudy 2

These are a breakdown of "pledged delegates and superdelegates," according to CNN, with the magic number being 2,025. Meanwhile, via The Page, there are different counts at ABC and CBS.

The candidates schedules: Hillary is in Harlem today, where she's expected to receive the endorsement of the Rev. Calvin Butts, while Obama hits a black church in Atlanta, and Edwards does two Sunday shows, Face the Nation and Late Edition.

On the GOP side Rudy and McCain are headed for Florida, where the next showdown is expected to be brutal, while Huck heads for Texas.

Late Update: A commenter notes that CNN also has a count of just pledged delegates:

Obama 38

Hillary 36

Edwards 18