MSNBC and the Associated Press call it for McCain. CNN called it for McCain a few moments ago, too.

McCain was able to prevail in a tight race with Mike Huckabee because, according to exit polls, McCain basically tied Huck among GOP voters while prevailing handily among independents, 42%-25%.

The victory is a big one for McCain, partly because this is the state where his "insurgent" challenge to George W. Bush in 2000 was stopped dead.

Prediction: McCain's victory tonight -- and his reinvigorated candidacy in general -- will be uniformly described by pundits as having been caused by his heroic support for "the surge."

The Hillary campaign has a new statement out responding to the Obama camp's claim that they won more delegates in Nevada:

Hillary Clinton won the Nevada Caucuses today by winning a majority of the delegates at stake.

The Obama campaign is wrong. Delegates for the national convention will not be determined until April 19.

Meanwhile, the Nevada Dem party releases this statement:

“Today, two out of three Nevadans who caucused chose a Democrat instead of a Republican for president. That is an overwhelming majority vote for a new direction. Just like in Iowa, what was awarded today were delegates to the county convention. No national convention delegates were awarded. The calculations of national convention delegates being circulated are based upon an assumption that delegate preferences will remain the same between now and April 2008. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support.”

Late Update: The Nevada Dem party releases this clarification:

"No national convention delegates were awarded. That said, if the delegate preferences remain unchanged between now and April 2008, the calculations of national convention delegates being circulated by the Associated Press are correct. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support."

Okay, I know none of you care about the GOP South Carolina primary, but just f.y.i., McCain looks like he may be on his way to winning this thing handily. With more than one-fifth reporting, here's where we stand:

McCain 36%

Huckabee 28%

Romney 15%

Thompson 15%

And Thompson is already sending signals that he's about to drop out of the race.

On a conference call with reporters just now, Obama top adviser David Plouffe made a surprising claim: He said Barack Obama actually won more federal nominating delegates out of the caucus, despite their six-point loss to Hillary. The Obama camp's final count: Obama 13 delegates, Hillary 12.

That flips around the totals that were reported, which were Hillary 13, and Obama 12.

The Obama camp's argument: The state Democratic Party set up rules for apportioning the federal delegates across the Congressional districts, and then further sub-divided the Second District into three portions. Hillary's support was concentrated in Clark County (the Las Vegas area), while Obama ran ahead of her in the rest of the state — meaning that he was able to prevail among the delegates given over to the rural areas.

Of course, it's unclear whether any of this matters, absent an official declaration from the Nevada Dem party, which we haven't seen yet. And it's also unclear whether a delegate victory, rather than the electoral outcome, will be seen as a win -- though in fairness, when Hillary was losing, Hillary advisers described this battle as a delegate fight.

On the conference call (which was reported by TPM's Eric Kleefeld), Obama adviser Plouffe was asked whether this means that Obama won the Nevada Caucus. Plouffe's response: "Well, honestly, we'll leave that to you guys."

Late Update: The Associated Press says that Obama officially won the delegate count:

She captured the popular vote, but Obama edged her out for national convention delegates at stake, taking 13 to her 12.

As others have noted, one of the big stories of the night is the disappointing finish of John Edwards, who came in with less than 5%. Here's the statement just out from the Edwards campaign, in full:

“Congratulations to Senator Clinton for her win in Nevada. Our campaign is very grateful to all those who demonstrated the loyalty and dedication to stand up for John Edwards in the face of very difficult circumstances and long odds, including our brothers and sisters in Nevada from the Carpenters, Steelworkers, Transport Workers, and Communications Workers of America.

“John Edwards is the underdog in this campaign, facing two $100 million candidates. But that is nothing compared to the real underdogs in our country – working men and women, middle class families, and all those who have no voice in Washington.

“John Edwards is in this race to fight for the real underdogs and to make sure the voices of the American people are heard in Washington, not the special interests. That’s why he’s the only candidate in this race who has never taken a dime from PACs or Washington lobbyists; the only candidate who will ban corporate lobbyists from his White House; and the only candidate who is honest enough to say we are in a fight for our country and we need to take on the special interests if we are going to have a country that works for hard-working families and the middle class.

“The race to the nomination is a marathon and not a sprint, and we’re committed to making sure the voices of all the voters in the remaining 47 states are heard. The nomination won’t be decided by win-loss records, but by delegates, and we’re ready to fight for every delegate. Saving the middle class is going to be an epic battle, and that’s a fight John Edwards is ready for.”

A little while ago CNN reported that the McCain campaign was seeking a court order to extend voting in eastern South Carolina, after learning that voting machines in that part of the state were malfunctioning today. Such a move could have a dramatic impact on what's expected to be an extremely tight contest.

CNN quoted a top backer of McCain, State Rep Tracey Edge, vowing that the campaign would be heading for court.

But it looks like it might not happen, after all.

I just checked in with McCain's South Carolina spokesperson B.J. Boling. He said: "Representative Edge did not have all the necessary information," he told me. "Whether the McCain will take any action will be known shortly."

Apparently McCain lawyers are holed up examining the situation to see what, if anything, can be done. The success or failure of such an effort could conceivably impact the outcome.

Late Update: It's official: The McCain campaign did not go to a judge to try to extend the voting. The campaign tells me they decided against it.

If you look at the entrance polls of the Nevada Dem caucuses today, it's striking how starkly the vote is breaking down along racial, ethnic and generational lines.

Among Latinos, Hillary is beating Obama, 64%-24%.

But among blacks, Obama dramatically increased his lead over Hillary from earlier in the contest, beating her 79%-16%

Meanwhile, Hillary beat back what appeared to be a stiff challenge from Obama for the female vote, beating him 52%-35%

And the vote broke down sharply along generational lines, too. Hillary beat Obama handily among both the 45-59 and the 60 and older set, while Obama won by sizable margins among voters aged 18-44.

MSNBC calls it for Hillary. With 84% reporting, it's ...

Hillary 50%

Obama 45%

Edwards 4%

An Obama adviser is on MSNBC, explaining the loss by saying that "this will continue to be an insurgent campaign." More in a bit.

Late Update: CBS calls it for Hillary, too. And so does CNN.

Late Update: The entrance polls show some very interesting things about how today's vote is breaking down along racial, ethnic and generational lines.

MSNBC calls it for Hillary. With 84% reporting, it's ...

Hillary 50%

Obama 45%

Edwards 4%

An Obama adviser is on MSNBC, explaining the loss by saying that "this will continue to be an insurgent campaign." More in a bit.

Late Update: CBS calls it for Hillary, too. And so does CNN.

Late Update: The entrance polls show some very interesting things about how today's vote is breaking down along racial, ethnic and generational lines.

A last minute dirty trick in Nevada? The Obama campaign is claiming that a last-minute call, perhaps a robocall, has gone out to numerous Nevadans -- a call that repeatedly refers to Obama as "Barack Hussein Obama."

The Obama camp just released a recording of the call, and says it has received "numerous" reports of it from recipients. We have not been able to independently confirm the call or its origins. Give it a listen:

The call says: "I'm calling with some important information about Barack Hussein Obama. It repeats "Barack Hussein Obama" several times. For instance: "Barack Hussein Obama says he doesn't take money from Washington lobbyists or special interest groups but the record is clear that he does."

And: "You just can't take a chance on Barack Hussein Obama."

It's unclear whether this is a robocall. To our ears it sounds more like someone reading from a call script.

Ben Smith reported today that Bill Clinton alleged in an appearance in Nevada that he personally witnessed voter suppression by the culinary workers. Smith posted a transcript he obtained of the event.

I've now obtained audio of Bill's comments. Give it a listen:

Here's the key quote (it starts a little less than halfway through the audio):

Today when my daughter and I were wandering through the hotel, and all these culinary workers were mobbing us telling us they didn’t care what the union told them to do, they were gonna caucus for Hillary.

There was a representative of the organization following along behind us going up to everybody who said that, saying 'if you’re not gonna vote for our guy were gonna give you a schedule tomorrow so you can’t be there.' So, is this the new politics? I haven’t seen anything like that in America in 35 years. So I will say it again – they think they're better than you.

Since the audio I have is limited, I can't vouch for the full context. But the charges are eye-opening. Smith has more of the story's details -- and the culinary workers' denial of the charge -- right here.

Audio of Bill after the jump.

We could all use a bit of comic relief while we wait for today's results. So here goes: The Obama and Hillary campaigns are now battling over who has the better interpretation of the career of ... basketball great Magic Johnson.

Hillary kicked things off with a radio ad on black radio in South Carolina in which Hillary supporter Johnson suggested that Obama is a hyped rookie, just as he himself was -- and that we need a seasoned player in the White House:

My rookie year, we won our first game on a last-second shot. I was so hyped. But the captain of my team said, “take it easy rookie, it’s a long season, it’s a long road to the championship.” He was right. Winning comes from years of hard work and preparation. Whether it’s winning championships or a president who can lead us back to greatness, I’ll always want the most prepared and experienced person leading my team.

The Obama campaign pushed back on the ad by pointing out that Magic himself was a really terrific rookie indeed who went on to accomplish magical things. The Obama camp actually supplied statistics and video clips to make this case (you can't cede an inch of ground anywhere in modern campaigns, clearly).

Now, let's parse this. Magic, on behalf of Clinton, is saying: "Yeah, a rookie can have a really attention grabbing first year -- but nonetheless, what we really need in a President is someone who's proven him or herself over the long term." Also, there seems to be a suggestion here that Magic sees Hillary as the equivalent of his captain at the time -- the leader of the team (or the country). In other words, Magic as Obama; Hillary as Magic's captain.

The Obama camp's reply is that this particular rookie in fact went on to greatness -- proving that a rookie needn't be dismissed as an overhyped flash in the pan. Rather, we should see a rookie's awesomeness not as something random or arbitrary, but as a harbinger of future greatness.

Kind of dovetails neatly with the campaign's larger argument.

The Obama campaign is really doing its damndest to puncture the false Obama-is-a-Muslim smears before they take hold. In the latest move, the Obama camp released an "open letter to the Jewish community" today from seven Jewish U.S. Senators condemning the smear.

The key is that none of the Senators has yet endorsed a candidate in the Presidential race.

"Over the past several weeks, many in the Jewish community have received hateful emails that use falsehood and innuendo about Senator Barack Obama's religion and attack him personally," reads the letter. "Jews, who have historically been the target of such attacks, should be the first to reject these tactics."

The signers are Senators Carl Levin, Barbara Boxer, Ben Cardin, Russ Feingold, Frank Lautenberg, Bernie Sanders, and Ron Wyden. Full letter after the jump.

Separately, we'll be blogging the returns from the Nevada Dem caucuses and the South Carolina GOP primary throughout the day today right here at Election Central. So check back for frequent updates.

Read more »

The final American Research Group poll for the South Carolina Republican primary shows some very wild swings in the home stretch, with Mike Huckabee taking the lead over John McCain. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday's poll:

Huckabee 33% (+10)
McCain 26% (-7)
Thompson 21% (+8)
Romney 9% (-11)
Giuliani 3% (-1)
Paul 2% (+1)

Is this poll a massive outlier, or could it be an indicator of some genuine, last-minute Huckmentum? We'll all find out Saturday night.

The final SurveyUSA poll before the South Carolina Republican primary gives John McCain a narrow lead over Mike Huckabee. Here are the numbers, as compared to yesterday's poll:

McCain 31% (+2)
Huckabee 27% (+1)
Romney 17% (+0)
Thompson 16% (-1)
Paul 5% (+0)
Giuliani 2% (-1)

The ultimate Hillary surrogate -- Bill himself -- has also teed off on Obama today over his contention in the Reagan interview that the GOP has been the party of ideas:

"Her principal opponent said that since 1992, the Republicans have had all the good ideas," Clinton told a crowd in Pahrump this morning. "It goes along with their plan to ask Republicans to become Democrats for a day and caucus with you tomorrow, and then go back and become Republicans so they can participate in the Republican primary. I'm not making this up, folks."

That latter bit is a reference to that mailer that an Obama precinct captain pushed urging that GOPers and indys switch for a day and caucus for Obama. It wasn't the work of the Obama campaign, and they disavowed it.

Bill also said:

"I can't imagine any Democrat seeking the presidency would say they were the party of new ideas for the last 15 years. But it sounded good in Reno I guess," he said. "So now it turns out you can choose between somebody who thinks our ideas or better or the Republicans had all the good ideas."

Did I mention that the Clinton camp is pressing this one pretty hard today? More on the validity of this Clinton criticism here.

Separately, it's not surprising that Bill would be personally put off by Obama's interview. While the Hillary campaign is reacting primarily to Obama's contention that the GOP was until recently the "party of ideas," Obama also explicitly said in his original interview that Bill's presidency wasn't transformational, the way Reagan's was.

This video -- posted over at MyDD -- is definitely worth a watch: It shows Edwards at an event in Reno demanding that Obama repudiate the controversial radio ad, aired by the Illinois Senator's labor ally, saying Hillary doesn't respect Latinos:

Edwards points out that Obama raised holy heck about the fact that Edwards' third-party labor allies ran positive ads on his behalf, and asks why Obama won't condemn this "divisive" third-party effort. The Obama camp has replied that this is only one ad and is dwarfed by the third-party spending on behalf of his rivals.

Interesting political context: After Iowa, Edwards went after Hillary heavily in the belief that she could be knocked out of the race, leaving only a two-man contest. Now Edwards is hitting Obama for politics as usual, perhaps a belated recognition that Obama is his real competitor, in that he's sopping up much of the "change" vote.

And around and around we go...

The new AP/Ipsos poll has some bad news for Rudy Giuliani: The early losses he's suffered have caused his national numbers to plummet since the last poll from six weeks ago — in fact, his support has fallen by half.

The GOP numbers: McCain 22% (+9), Huckabee 16% (-2), Romney 16% (+4), and Rudy 13% (-13).

The Democratic numbers: Clinton 40% (-5), Obama 33% (+10), Edwards 13% (+1).

Obama spokesman Bill Burton responds to Hillary's Obama-Reagan blast with this:

“It’s hard to take Hillary Clinton’s latest attack seriously when she’s the one who supported George Bush’s war in Iraq, the most damaging Republican idea of our generation. While others were triangulating and poll-testing their positions, Senator Obama has been fighting for progressive ideals for over two decades."

Pulling it away from a discussion about Obama's conciliatory streak and back onto turf where Obama is more comfortable: Hillary's support for the war, and their argument about political caution and triangulation.

The Hillary campaign clearly made a decision to go all out on Obama's Reagan comments today. Hillary herself just lit into Obama over them in Las Vegas, according to a transcript provided by her campaign:

"I have to say, you know, my leading opponent the other day said that he thought the Republicans had better ideas than Democrats the last ten to fifteen years. That's not the way I remember the last ten to fifteen years.

"I don't think it's a better idea to privatize Social Security. I don't think it's a better idea to try to eliminate the minimum wage. I don't think it's a better idea to undercut health benefits and to give drug companies the right to make billions of dollars by providing prescription drugs to Medicare recipients. I don't think it's a better idea to shut down the government, to drive us into debt."

In fairness, Obama didn't really say that Republicans had better ideas than Dems (more on this here). This is what Obama said:

"The Republican approach I think has played itself out. I think it's fair to say the Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time over the last 10 or 15 years, in the sense that they were challenging conventional wisdom. Now, you've heard it all before. You look at the economic policies, when they're being debated among the presidential candidates, it's all tax cuts. Well, we've done that, we've tried it."

Between this and what Hillary's surrogates said today about this, it looks like the Hillary campaign is waging all-out war over the Reagan comments to "win" the last news cycle, as the political pros like to say. We'll see what happens.

Late Update: The Obama camp responds.

Late Late Update: Bill Clinton weighs in, too.

Still Later Update: It's probably worth pointing out that Obama's quote is saying that the GOP "challenged conventional wisdom" and suggests by default that the Dems didn't have any ideas. At the very least this is a poor choice of words on Obama's part.

It's official: Camp Hillary is making a campaign issue out of Obama's comments about Reagan.

In a conference call with reporters that ended moments ago, several Clinton campaign surrogates just excoriated Obama's assertions about Reagan and recent political history, which he made in an interview with the Las Vegas Review Journal a few days ago. Interestingly, the Clinton camp seized on this Obama comment from the interview:

"I think it's fair to say that the Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time there over the last 10-15 years in the sense that they were challenging conventional wisdom."

Hillary supporter and Congressman Barney Frank, who was on the call, said: "I was stupefied by the comments...It's baffling to me that he would speak so highly of him."

Frank also grabbed onto Obama's description of the "excesses" of governance in the 1960s and 1970s, saying: "When I think about the 60s and the 70s, I think about Medicaid, Medicare, the Environmental Protection Agency, Community Development Block Grants...It's astounding to me to have this blanket endorsement of a right wing attack."

Frank added: "When he says government in effect grew too much in the 60s and 70s...Reagan agreed with that. This is not simply a tribute to Ronald Reagan's rhetoric but an endorsement of some of the substance."

In fairness to Obama, later in the interview he did take a step towards denouncing some of the "ideas" he'd referred to in the "party of ideas" comment. And he didn't endorse the substance of any GOP idea in particular. As for the "excesses" comment, Obama was perhaps referring to the perception of governmental excess that Reagan so skillfully exploited, but it seems clear that at the very least there were some poor choices of words by Obama here.

For those of you who care about such stuff, here are Hillary's talking points of the day for Nevada, sent out by the campaign to surrogates and forwarded to us by a source:

Daily Talking Points, January 18, 2008

SOLUTIONS FOR THE AMERICAN ECONOMY

* Hillary continues her focus on the economy today in Las Vegas, holding a discussion with small business employees to hear directly about their struggles.

* She knows it will take a hands-on leader to manage our economy and hold government accountable for delivering results.

* Her aggressive $110 billion stimulus plan would assist the people who have been hardest hit by the economic downturn and who are most likely to spend new resources, which would boost the economy.

* Hillary would immediately stem the tide of foreclosures. Her plan would place a 90-day moratorium on subprime foreclosures and freeze rates on subprime mortgages for at least five years.

* She would also provide tax rebates, energy assistance grants, and extended unemployment insurance to those who need it most.

* Working families who are being left behind in Bush economy will no longer be invisible when Hillary is president.

So if you hear some of this stuff, you'll have an idea where it might have come from.

The new Fox News poll gives John McCain a decent lead in the South Carolina primary, with little overall change from last week's poll:

McCain 27% (+2)
Huckabee 20% (+2)
Romney 15% (-2)
Thompson 11% (+2)
Paul 4% (-1)
Giuliani 3% (-2)

The undecided number is awfully big in this poll, weighing in at 19%, so anything could happen.

John McCain has been endorsed by the Charleston Post and Courier, which also supported him last time around in 2000.

This endorsement gives McCain a clean sweep of the top three newspapers in South Carolina — he has also been endorsed by the single largest paper, The State, as well as the Greenville News.

Rudy Giuliani's new ad, running in the West Palm Beach area, uses actual video footage from 9/11 to promote Rudy's candidacy -- and includes this surprising line about the terror attacks:

"When the world wavered, and history hesitated, he never did."

The suggestion appears to be that Rudy's response to the disaster was better than that of literally the rest of the world -- better than Bush's, better than that of the first responders or the people depicted in the ad running from the disaster, better than America as a whole. Indeed, Rudy's response showed him to be stronger and more unshakable than all of history.

Of course, in reality Rudy had nothing to do with America's response to the disaster. Take a look:

UNITE -- the Obama labor ally that stirred controversy yesterday by airing a radio ad in Nevada attacking Hillary for not respecting Latinos -- has just laid out nearly $14,000 for a new TV ad in the state, according to records filed with the FEC today.

Is it another negative hit?

The filing says that UNITE spent $13,645 on an ad that "supports" Obama, which suggests that it might be a positive spot.

But here's the thing. That radio ad hitting Hillary referenced above was also described in the FEC filings by the group as merely being supportive of Obama, even though it was a pretty hard hit on Hillary. The justification for this is presumably that the ad also praised Obama.

So it's fair to ask whether the new TV spot will do the same -- combine praise of Obama with a negative slam on Hillary. If so, look for it to become an issue today.

We're checking in with UNITE about the ad and will keep you posted.

Late Update: In terms of the size of the buy, it's worth keeping in mind that it's one day and it's on Univision, according to the filing.

Late Late Update: It turns out that the ad is all positive. Here's the full text, emailed over by a union official:

Together we built our Culinary Union and together we are winning the Las Vegas Dream.

The companies can't divide us by race or by casino or by the job we do.

Senator Barack Obama believes that the way to change America is by bringing all people together.

Together we can elect a President who will unite people.

Barack Obama for President.

Together we win. Como Siempre.

I've revised the hed to reflect this.

The New Republic's Jason Zengerle takes issue with our earlier posts, arguing that the media didn't screw Edwards.

My response is here.

Hillary gets the Las Vegas Sun, while Obama picks up the Reno Gazette-Journal.

Separately, the Sun has an amusing lament about the state of the Nevada contest:

The contest in Nevada has featured disingenuous advertising, attacks based on flimsy evidence, faux-outraged surrogates and the pitching of insubstantial stories to reporters.

And the Sun is surprised by this? As Eric Kleefeld points out, this shows that this really is the first time Nevada has had a serious contest.

This morning's Zogby poll of South Carolina shows John McCain still in the lead, but underneath the tracking numbers there might be some movement in the wrong direction for him:

McCain 29%
Huckabee 22%
Romney 15%
Thompson 13%
Paul 4%
Giuliani 2%

Some commentary from John Zogby: "There is movement afoot in the Palmetto State. The precise three-day rolling average is McCain 28.6%, Huckabee 22.3%, Romney 15.4%, and Thompson 13.2%. The very first day of polling McCain led by double digits. In the single day of polling on Thursday alone, Romney hit 19%, while McCain’s lead over Huckabee stood at only 3.2%. If Romney continues to gain after Michigan it will hurt McCain."

This morning's Zogby poll shows Hillary Clinton with a small lead over Barack obama in Nevada:

Clinton 42%
Obama 37%
Edwards 12%

Commentary from John Zogby: "Clinton holds a slight lead in Nevada but it will all depend on organization. Nevada Democrats have no real history for us to go on, so we will have to see how powerful the unions, civil rights, and other organizations are in bringing out their constituencies."

A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney leading their respective caucuses in Nevada:

Democrats:
Clinton 41%
Obama 32%
Edwards 14%

Republicans:
Romney 34%
McCain 19%
Huckabee 13%
Thompson 8%
Paul 7%
Giuliani 6%

There are two important caveats here. First, there has never before been an important, high-turnout Nevada caucus, so nobody can really be sure how to model turnout. Second, with John Edwards seemingly below 15% statewide and thus likely to fail to meet viability in many precincts, the second choices of his supporters could be truly decisive, along with the remaining undecided voters.

The pro-Obama UNITE-HERE union — the parent organization of the Culinary Workers Union — is running a Spanish radio ad in Nevada that lambastes Hillary Clinton, calling her "shameless." The subject of the ad is the failed lawsuit filed by Clinton supporters, against the special caucus sites created on the Las Vegas Strip in order to help Culinary members participate. Hillary declined to condemn the suit, and Bill Clinton publicly defended it.

"Senator Obama is defending our right to vote. Senator Obama wants our votes," the ad says, according to Ben Smith. "He respects our votes, our community, and our people. Senator Obama's campaign slogan is 'Si Se Puede.' Vote for a president who respects us, and who respects our right to vote."

A pro-Confederate Flag third-party group is running new radio ads in South Carolina praising Mike Huckabee's pro-state's-rights stance on the flag issue -- and slamming John McCain over his repeated criticism of the controversial symbol.

"Mike Huckabee's stand is a breath of fresh air," say the ads, which are paid for by the Americans for the Preservation of American Culture. "Gov. Huckabee understands that all the average guy with a Confederate Flag on his pickup truck is saying is: He's proud to be a Southerner."

McCain has been dogged by the flag issue in South Carolina since his 2000 Presidential run; he's repeatedly denounced it, calling it a "racist symbol." There are two versions of the ad, one attacking McCain, the other attacking Romney, who's also condemned the flag. Listen to them both (the second starts roughly at the one-minute mark):

Huckabee has not distanced himself from the ads. Huckabee's position on the issue is that the Federal government should stay out of states' disputes over the flag.

Ron Wilson, an official with the group airing the ads, declined to say how big the buy was. But he confirmed that it was running on all South Carolina radio stations that carry Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Bill O'Reilly.

Barack Obama's view that Ronald Reagan changed the country in a way Bill Clinton didn't — and his aspiration to be more like Reagan in this respect — has endeared the Illinois Senator to some former Reagan aides, who do admit they see something of the Gipper in him.

The Huffington Post talked to several former Reagan staffers, and got some interesting perspectives. "Ronald Reagan was an inspirational leader who also was a uniter. There was never any vindictive stuff to the other side," said Lawrence Korb, a former Reagan aide and current Obama supporter who now serves as a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. Korb added: "I think Obama is trying to get us back to that pleasantness."

Others weren't so convinced — they say Obama isn't anywhere near as great as Reagan.

The rest is available here.

Hillary goes up on the air in a Feb. 5 state for the first time, with this California spot about the economy:

New Obama radio ad in Nevada appeals to Repubs and indys to caucus for Obama (both the short and long versions can be heard here):

No mention anywhere of Democrats. And a lot of promise of unity.

(H/T Jed Report)

The Las Vegas Review Journal has just posted advance notice of the Nevada poll it's releasing on Friday:

On the GOP side former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads his closest opponent by 15 points.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton outdistances Barack Obama by 9 points.

The actual numbers in the poll -- which was conducted Monday through Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research -- won't be available until tomorrow.

Key caveat: No one really has a good idea how to poll a contest like this, since there's never been a crucial high-turnout Nevada caucus before and no one can predict who will turn out.

The new Mason-Dixon poll in South Carolina shows this Saturday's Republican race to be a dead between John McCain and Mike Huckabee, while Barack Obama currently has a decent lead for next Saturday's Democratic primary:

Democrats:
Obama 40%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 13%

Republicans:
McCain 27%
Huckabee 25%
Romney 15%
Thompson 13%
Paul 6%
Giuliani 5%

In the GOP race, a potentially good sign for Mike Huckabee: Evangelical voters are somewhat more likely to be undecided — and he's running ahead of McCain among them as it is.

On the campaign trail today, John Edwards offered an interesting take on Barack Obama's comment yesterday that Ronald Reagan changed America in a way Bill Clinton didn't. It's worth quoting Edwards extensively:

“I would never use Ronald Reagan as an example of change...

"He was openly -- openly -- intolerant of unions and the right to organize. He openly fought against the union and the organized labor movement in this country. He openly did extraordinary damage to the middle class and working people, created a tax structure that favored the very wealthiest Americans and caused the middle class and working people to struggle every single day. The destruction of the environment, you know, eliminating regulation of companies that were polluting and doing extraordinary damage to the environment...

"I can promise you this: This president will never use Ronald Reagan as an example for change."

As Ben Smith notes, Obama wasn't praising Reagan in terms of policy specifics. At the same time, though, Obama did talk in neutral terms about Reagan's reversals of the "excesses" of the 1960s and 1970s, whereas the changes wrought by Reagan are more customarily understood by Dems as the depredations that Edwards starkly described here.

The Edwards campaign releases a new video spoofing the media's lack of coverage of itself.

It's fun stuff. View it here.

A ruling has come down in the Nevada caucus lawsuit, which was filed by the state teachers union against the special caucus locations set up for Las Vegas Strip workers. U.S. District Court Judge James Mahan ruled in favor of the state and national Democratic Party's plan for the caucuses. "State Democrats have a First Amendment right to association, to assemble and to set their own rules," Mahan said in his ruling.

The ruling should definitely be seen as a win for Barack Obama. Leading figures behind the suit have links to the Clinton campaign, and none other than Bill Clinton has publicly defended the lawsuit — which was itself filed only days after the Culinary Workers Union, whose members will make up the vast majority of participants at the caucus locations, voted to endorse Obama. As it is, the net effect of this suit might only be to rile up union members against Hillary.

Late Update: Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton responded to the ruling in this statement:

We're glad that the Nevada court upheld the Nevada Democratic Party's caucus plan which encourages voter participation. While the Clinton camp clearly believed the voices of workers should be silenced in service of their perceived political interest, they enjoyed a twenty five-point lead two months ago and have much of the party establishment in their camp. So, despite their inherent advantages we are pleased this should be a close and competitive contest Saturday.

With the Nevada caucuses only days away, it's only natural that the Hillary and Obama campaigns would square off today over Yucca Mountain.

The