State By State, Huck Rises And Rudy Falls
Just how drastic has Mike Huckabee's rise been? We've put together a sampling of polls from various primary states, and the effect is quite startling, not only in Iowa but across the country. Furthermore, the last two months have turned to be pretty rough for Rudy Giuliani, who was relying on his national popularity to see him through.
The trends, as can be seen in this graph, are very striking:
More analysis after the jump.
• In Iowa, Huckabee has risen up an amazing 21 points, while both Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani have declined. Rudy's campaign has all but given up on a win in Iowa, running their TV ads elsewhere, and he now struggles to get into the double digits.
• New Hampshire has been the exception, with Huckabee rising only four points, and so far being unable to catch on here.
• In Nevada, Huckabee has surged by 15 points, while Rudy has stayed about constant.
• In South Carolina, Huckabee has shot up 20 points, while Rudy has fallen nine. As voters in this Bible Belt state got a closer look at "America's Mayor," a lot of them just fell away to the undecided column and to other candidates — and Huckabee probably got his piece somewhere along the line, along with Mitt Romney.
• Florida seems to be in the same boat as South Carolina. Huckabee has gained an amazing 24 points since late September, while Rudy has plummeted by ten.
• In Michigan, Huckabee has gained 15 points, while Rudy has stayed about constant.
• In California — one of the big February 5 states that Rudy was banking on — Huckabee has 20 points after not even being listed in earlier polls, and Rudy has dropped by 11.
Rudy's problem seems to be that he started off in this race as "America's Mayor," commanding respect even as many voters knew nothing about his positions on the issues or his storied personal life. As such, he had nowhere to go but down. Mike Huckabee, on the other hand, started out as an unknown who had a lot to offer the Republican base voter — so he had nowhere to go but up.
Here are the full numbers:
| Iowa | Huckabee | Giuliani | Romney |
| 10/10-14/2007 Rasmussen | 18 | 13 | 25 |
| 11/12/2007 Rasmussen | 16 | 15 | 29 |
| 11/26-27/2007 Rasmussen | 28 | 12 | 25 |
| 12/10/2007 Rasmussen | 39 | 8 | 23 |
| New Hampshire | |||
| 10/23/2007 Rasmussen | 10 | 19 | 28 |
| 11/5/2007 Rasmussen | 10 | 17 | 32 |
| 11/29/2007 Rasmussen | 14 | 15 | 34 |
| 12/11/2007 Rasmussen | 14 | 15 | 33 |
| Nevada | |||
| 10/9-11/2007 Mason-Dixon | 2 | 28 | 17 |
| 11/9-13/2007 CNN | 4 | 29 | 21 |
| 12/3-5/2007 McClatchy-MSNBC | 17 | 25 | 20 |
| South Carolina | |||
| 9/26-27/2007 Rasmussen | 3 | 20 | 15 |
| 11/20/2007 Rasmussen | 12 | 13 | 21 |
| 12/3-4/2007 Rasmussen | 25 | 12 | 18 |
| 12/16/2007 Rasmussen | 23 | 11 | 23 |
| Florida | |||
| 9/19-20/2007 Rasmussen | 3 | 29 | 11 |
| 11/18/2007 Rasmussen | 9 | 27 | 19 |
| 12/13/2007 Rasmussen | 27 | 19 | 23 |
| Michigan | |||
| 10/2-3/2007 InsiderAdvantage | 6 | 19 | 16 |
| 11/7-13/2007 EPIC/MRA | 9 | 28 | 25 |
| 11/30-12/3/2007 MIRS | 19 | 11 | 20 |
| 12/4/2007 Rasmussen | 21 | ||
| California | |||
| 10/12-14/2007 SurveyUSA | n/a | 39 | 14 |
| 11/2-4/2007 SurveyUSA | 8 | 34 | 15 |
| 11/30-12/2/2007 SurveyUSA | 14 | 32 | 14 |
| 12/14-16/2007 SurveyUSA | 20 | 28 | 16 |
Comments (17)
Jeremy wrote on December 18, 2007 4:38 PM:Hurry. Hurry. Hurry. Get your tickets for Republican Party Meltdown 2008. Watch the furlowing fundamentalist, Mike Huckabee take on imperialists, nativists, corporatists, and "America's mayor" Rudy 9ui11iani(tm).
Preacher man wrote on December 18, 2007 5:42 PM:Give me a Great big sermon - thats it -
harder harder - oh yeah - oh God -oh God
preach to me now - oh my God -Yes Yes Yes- I'm losing my mind - Preachhhh to me
OH YEsssssssss - GOPPPPPP - Jesus Christ
OK now I will vote for you
Richard L. Adlof wrote on December 18, 2007 5:45 PM:The question is how long can the freakfest that is Huckleberry ride high in the polls until people figure out he and the farging wacko they keep hearing about on the news are the same dude . . .
OR . . .
When will it be Tancredo's turn to be #1?
Liam wrote on December 18, 2007 5:52 PM:The Huckster Bee is this campaign's Pat Robertson. He will win in Iowa, and then get obliterated from New Hampshire on.
The Huckster Bee doesn't believe in Evolution, so he better not try and evolve his Christo Looney Tunes, into secular sheet music.
goethean wrote on December 18, 2007 6:02 PM:amazing...talk about being a captive of your base...
Richterscale wrote on December 18, 2007 6:22 PM:Richard L. Adlof wrote on December 18, 2007 5:45 PM:
The question is how long can the freakfest that is Huckleberry ride high in the polls until people figure out he and the farging wacko they keep hearing about on the news are the same dude . . .
Hopefully not until seconds before the Republican convention...
Powkat wrote on December 18, 2007 7:04 PM:Oh, please, God - let Huckabee be the Republican nominee. He can win fewer states than Walter Mondale.
Afferent Input wrote on December 18, 2007 7:15 PM:What's the deal with Rudy's #'s from Michigan for Dec? You say he's basically flat, but there is no number listed in the raw data.
Wuz up wif dat?
Rick B wrote on December 18, 2007 7:20 PM:I'm still trying to understand the underlying pattern in the Republican Party, but here's my latest idea.
The Republicans have been an uneasy alliance between the econo-Repubs (and foreign policy Repubs - mostly left over Cold Warriors) and the Evangelists, with the Evangelists generally getting federal judges and a lot of lip service from the party. This has worked as long as the Republican alliance had a reasonable chance to win the Presidency - that meant both sides got enough from the alliance to be willing to put up with the idiocies of the other side. As long as the followers felt that a Republican win was possible for the Repub alliance, they stuck together.
For 2008 the followers don't think that the Repubs can win the Presidency, so the followers are looking for someone - a purist - who can represent what they believe. Under the old rules Rudy or Romney either could talk Southern religious racism and the Evangelical leaders could convince their follower that since they have no strong candidate of their own in the fight, the econo/cold-warrior candidate offered the evangelicals their best shot at national influence.
But the evangelical followers are becoming aware that neither Rudy nor Romney can deliver a Presidency, and Rudy has become to look worse as time goes by. Romney still isn't viewed as a Christian by a lot of evangelicals. Enter Huckabee, a Southern governor who speaks true evangelical as a native language and who has truly awesome political skills.
With nothing to tie them to the econo/Cold-Warrior candidates who have severe religious baggage, the evangelical followers are leaving the Repub alliance and moving towards Huckabee. I think that's is what we see in these statistics, with Rudy collapsing, Romney dropping and Huckabee doing a rocket imitation going up.
The timing is because of the front-loaded primaries. The evangelical rank-and-file is becoming aware that the primaries are very soon, so they are looking at both the probability of a Republican win of the Presidency for the first time and they are looking at each candidate. Without a possible win in November 2008, the evangelicals are going their own way. Huckabee offers them more than the econo/Cold-Warrior Repubs do.
That's my best current guess. Take it or leave it.
john mccutchen wrote on December 18, 2007 7:20 PM:I'm betting Sgt Kleefeld's job in the WH press office that Huck will finish Rudi and the Mormon and open the door for Hanoi John, GOP PTSD and his running mate JoeMentum (whom HILLARY ENDORSED)
Afferent Input wrote on December 18, 2007 7:59 PM:Also, the figure you put together doesn't really do this "troubling" development justice. I put on together a fig that better illustrates these trends here.
Afferent Input wrote on December 18, 2007 8:06 PM:Hmmm... link doesn't seem to work. Click on the link from my name to see the fig I put together.
Salmon Jack wrote on December 18, 2007 10:52 PM:This is sooo...disapointing...so many of us were hoping for an open or "brokered" convention and then this yahoo from Arkansassssw comes along and screws it all up... I think the guy might run the table...but I hope not.
Please Jesus...give us a smoke filled room (ok, they'd have to stand outside today) with a bunch of pols making the cut...it would be so interesting.
Not fair -
Yours in opposition to democracy -
SJ
I think the most amazing thing is the way that about a month ago, on the Pollster.com graph of Republicans national, the bars for McCain, Thompson, Huckabee and Romeny all slammed head on into each other. Why didn't they all die in the crash?
Anyway, it is one of the most unusual and prettiest random graphical accidents I've ever seen -- and I don't mean that just metaphorically. It's a really interesting looking image.
JimBob wrote on December 18, 2007 11:11 PM:Is it really any surprise? Rudy Giuliani is a pompous, hypocritical nutball. He had his moment in the sun and now it's over. The Refflufican'ts are sorely hurting for a decent candidate.
Bob wrote on December 19, 2007 9:16 AM:Huckabee reminds me too much of Jimmy Carter; too many people pinning there hopes on someone they don't really know. Let's not make THAT mistake again!
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