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Rudy Pollster: What, Us Worry?

By Greg Sargent - December 20, 2007, 3:00PM

Rudy Giuliani's pollster, Ed Goeas, held a conference call with reporters that was designed to let them know that the campaign isn't at all worried about his precipitous plunge in the polls. But a couple of things he said inadvertently indicate in stark terms just how bad things have gotten for Rudy.

In response to a WSJ/NBC poll released yesterday that showed that Rudy's national lead has effectively evaporated, Rudy's pollster made two points. The more predictable one was that Rudy's grand strategy turns on winning in Florida, meaning that the national numbers don't matter.

But in that state, which is the centerpiece of Rudy's game plan and represents his last hope, Rudy has seen his lead slip as Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have both surged.

More interesting was this reaction from Rudy's pollster to the WSJ/NBC poll:

Goeas dismissed the poll, saying that he prefers to pay attention to the average of the last several polls, which he said still puts Giuliani ahead by several points.

Now Rudy's pollster is taking solace from the fact that his national lead is "several points." That's pretty revealing, considering that Rudy's national lead over the summer was in double digits.

Quite a fall.

8 Comments

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I heard something about Rudy is dropping out because of his
"illness"

Posted by Is this True ???
December 20, 2007 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink

worth recalling: when he concluded he couldn't win the senate race against hillary in 2000, he dropped out citing his prostate cancer.

Posted by Greg
December 20, 2007 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink

I just heard the same thing on the radio
that it is much more severe then just the flue.

He is giving a press conference at 4:00pm eastern time.

Posted by Lisa
December 20, 2007 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink

When Rudy drops out, he will cite medical reasons (again), but I doubt it'll happen before the NH primary. The next question is who'll benefit. McCain's just as gung-ho for the GWOT, but he's got the stamina Rudy never had.

Posted by eli
December 20, 2007 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink

Hillary on the rebound or has this race remained essentially "static", with voters just "flirting" with other choices before returning "home"? Has the news of Clinton implosion been greatly exaggerated?

Last three IA Polls
ARG 12/19 HRC 29% BHO 25% JRE 18%
CNN 12/18 HRC 30% BHO 28% JRE 26%
RAS 12/17 HRC 31% BHO 27% JRE 22%

National numbers all released today are very consistent, showing Clinton pretty where she was two months ago...

December 20, 2007

POLL: FOX National Primary

A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics national survey (story, results) of 900 registered voters (conducted 12/18 through 12/19) finds:

* Among 379 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (49% to 20%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 10%.

* Among 315 Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani runs at 20%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. John McCain both at 19%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 11%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 10%.

* All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 5% for Democrats and 6% for Republicans.

December 20, 2007

POLL: GWU Battleground National Primary

A new GWU Battleground Poll (results; Republican analysis, Democratic analysis) of 1,000 likely voters nationwide (conducted 12/9 through 12/12 by The Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D) ) finds:

* Among likely Republican primary voters, former Gov. Mike Huckabee (at 24%) and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 22%) leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (16%) in a national primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 15%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 9%, Rep. Ron Paul at 6%.

* Among likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (47% to 23%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 13%.

* All other candidates receive less than five percent each. Samples sizes and margins of sampling error were not released.

December 20, 2007

POLL: NBC/WSJ National Survey

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal national survey (NBC story, results; Journal story, results) of 1,008 adults (conducted 12/14 through 12/17) finds:

* Among Democrats and those who lean Democratic, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (45% to 23%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 13%.

* Among Republicans and those who lean Republican, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani runs even with former Gov. Mitt Romney (both at 20%) in a national primary; former Gov. Mike Huckabee runs at 17%, Sen. John McCain at 14%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 11%.

* All other candidates receive less than five percent each. Sample sizes and margins of error for both subgroups were not released.