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Poll: Two Major GOP Incumbents In Trouble In Alaska
A new round of Research 2000 polling, commissioned by Daily Kos, finds two longtime — and scandal-plagued – incumbents trailing in Alaska. Congressman Don Young (R) trails former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz (D) by a 49%-42% margin, while Senator Ted Stevens (R) is behind Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) 47%-41%.
Berkowitz currently faces a Democratic primary against two opponents, while Begich has yet to announce whether he will run for Senate. If one or even both were to win in November 2008, it would be a huge milestone — the last time a Democrat won a federal election in heavily-GOP Alaska was in 1974.
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AK-Sen is ranked ninth most vulnerable seat in these recent Senate rankings, so this is looking VERY promising. And it looks likely Begich will jump in if we believe reports that came out about 3 weeks ago, though is unlikely to make his decision any time soon.
December 10, 2007 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
The poll Markos commissioned looks good on some levels, but might be quite useless for Alaska on others.
At the beginning of October, when Ethan Berkowitz declared his candidacy, he commissioned a poll from Anchorage pollster Ivan Moore. It came up with similar results to the recent Research 2000 poll. Berkowitz's Moore poll showed him beating the two candidates against whom Ethan is running in the Democratic Party primary by what appeared to be untouchable margins. But that same pollster had showed the 2006 Alaska gubernatorial team of Tony Knowles and Ethan Berkowitz beating current Governor Sarah Palin by about 5 points.
Former Alaska Democratic Party chief Jake Metcalfe is in the AK-AL race too. He hasn't publicly released any polls. But he is getting some strong behind-the-scene support from Alaska AFL/CIO chief Vince Beltrani, who also heads IBEW in Alaska. Jake Metcalfe, though he stepped down from his position as AK Dem Chief the weekend he announced his candidacy back in early August, has retained his paid position as Chief Counsel of the IBEW.
Both candidate Berkowitz and candidate Jake Metcalfe strongly advocate the opening of the coastal strip of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to big oil. Jake Metcalfe strongly supports the opening of Pebble Mine to development of the biggest mega-mine in world history in the earthquake and volcano-saddled headwaters of the Bristol Bay Sockeye salmon runs. Berkowitz hasn't given a position yet on that issue, but has supported the mining industry in the past.
The third candidate for the Democratic primary for AK-AL is Diane Benson, who challenged Don Young in 2006, coming closer to him with over 40% of the vote, than anyone had in a generation.
In 2006, the Knowles-Berkowitz team, who spent $1.1 million to Sarah Palin's $880,000 in the gubernatorial general campaign, garnered just over 97,000 votes. Diane Benson, running against Don Young for Alaska's sole U.S. House seat, received about 94,000 votes statewide, while spending $192,000 to Young's $2 million in the campaign.
Berkowitz is well-liked. So is Diane Benson. Berkowitz has only won office here in the most heavily Democratic Party-leaning district in Alaska. In the 2006 election, Benson carried parts of the state outside of Anchorage that Berkowitz and Knowles failed to carry.
Additionally, Benson has gotten the support of the Alaska Womens Caucus, and has been successful in wooing Native American concerns both inside and outside Alaska. This despite Don Young's heavy-handed threats to Native groups to not support any candidate but Young - or else.
In regard to the AK-AL US House race, I'm not terribly surprised that Markos is more attracted to a candidate like Berkowitz who is vaguely proggressive, compared to one like Benson who is very progressive. On the surface, Berkowitz, with more national monied backing seems a surer cinch for the seat. But Alaskans love mavericks, and Benson is that. Berkowitz is viewed by young progressives as "old school."
Diane Benson also published a poll - by Craciun - that shows her beating Don Young, by a slightly larger margin than Berkowitz would.
Regarding the U.S. Senate seat held by Ted Stevens, there is already a candidate - Ray Metcalfe (no relation to Jake Metcalfe). Ray is the person most responsible for bringing the corruption of Alaska Legislative politics before the public eye. He used to serve in the State Legislature, and has been writing articles and providing information about crooked deals up here for almost a generation. Most attribute his efforts to having led to the FBI/DOJ investigations, indictments, trials and convictions that are ongoing here.
Raty Metcalfe is a thorn in the side of Ted Stevens, and Ted's wayward son, Ben. But he's also a thorn in the side of Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the subject of half of Markos's Research 2000 poll. Begich has been involved in real estate deals with one of Ted Steven's partners, Jon Rubini, and Ray Metcalfe says - I'm doing an article about Ray for Howie Klein - that if the Federal investigation turns toward property leasing and zoning change deals in Anchorage, Begich stands "a 50-50 chance of being indicted."
http://progressivealaska.blogspot.com/
Ethan Berkowitz campaign site:
http://www.ethanberkowitz.com/index.php
Jake Metcalfe campaign site:
http://www.jake2008.com/welcome/index.ht ml
Diane Benson campaign site:
http://bensonforcongress.com/
Ray Metcalfe campaign site:
http://www.metcalfe4senate.com/
December 10, 2007 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it possible that we are witnessing the demise of the gop? Wouldn't if be classic if the king's lasting legacy (other than the Iraq travesty) would be that he single handedly caused the demise of the gop? Too funny.
December 10, 2007 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I once heard that there was election day irregulaities in Alaska during the 2006 election.
Any word on that?
Also I wonder if the Haye's case will ever break out into the open? Hayes is a former GOP mayor of Fairbanks.
He took a federal earmark from Sen. Stevens and spent it on his personal life and building his church. His wife has a plea agreement that doesnt include testimony against her husband. She must be agreeing to testify against somebody?
Wonder who?
Also I wonder why her husband isnt in on the plea agreement?
December 10, 2007 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
A friend of mine in Anchorage is a supporter of Berkowitz and has been helping on his campaign. Here is an excerpt from a note he sent me:
"Yes, Ethan will run against Young and he WILL win. I don't say that lightly esp considering how many races I've lost. Young is vulnerable and I think Alaskans have finally had enough of him. He has been implicated in the Veco scandals and even staunch Repubs are questioning why he has spent $500,000 from his campaign war chest on legal fees for lawyers and why he won't publicly say anything. Diane Benson (a politically unknown native woman) ran as a Dem during the last election and she won 40% of the vote. Ethan will do better.
There is a primary: Ethan, Diane Benson and the past state Dem chairman (Jake Metcalf) - all good candidates but Ethan is by far the best and will win the primary no problem. Ethan was a state House rep for many years and has risen to sainthood now that his floor speech has been aired repeatedly. It was 2 years ago (before all the search warrants were served on sitting legislators) and Ethan complained on the House floor that too many lobbyists and oil company execs were passing notes to legislators on the floor, and taking cell phone calls during the debate on revising oil taxes. Of course, we all know what has happened since then.
I volunteered for Ethan last year when he ran for governor. But then he joined with Knowles and switched to Lt Gov. If the timing of all the indictments was just a bit earlier, we might have won. (btw - the latest legislator to be found guilty was just sentenced to 6 years).
As I said, Ethan WILL beat Young in the general election. My worry is that Young won't run, or he won't win the R primary (but no real competition yet). If Ethan has to run in the general election against some other well known R, he might not win. So, maybe I should convince everyone to vote the R ballot in the primary and vote for Young.
Ethan is good. A transplant from the east coast. A lawyer. He commercial fished when he was younger. He hikes, skis, wilderness rafting trips, kayaks, etc. He's really a good guy - someone I can really support (as opposed to working for a candidate because I can't stand the opponent).
December 10, 2007 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will,
Former Rep. Berkowitz is a transplant from San Francisco, where he comes from a wealthy family. He came to Alaska around 1990, and has, to my knowledge, never fished commercially. He does love the outdoors - last time I saw him he was bike riding in the snow.
But he isn't the only candidate in the Democratic Primary. Nor is he the only viable one. How "good" he is in a 3-way, hard-fought primary campaign around the entire state, is yet to be seen. Look up the speeches he made last year while running in a losing contest for Lt. Governor. His grasp of local issues in Alaska's many and varied communities needs some work.
December 10, 2007 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh, Will, your friend in Anchorage may need to keep his/her ear a bit closer to the political ground. The Dom was not/has not been implicated in the Veco shenanigans.
And don't let your friend mislead you: Berkowitz has not risen to anywhere near "sainthood." This is Alaska, after all. Berkowitz is a Democrat, after all.
Please keep things in perspective.
December 11, 2007 2:12 AM | Reply | Permalink