« Poll: Huckabee Holding Solid Lead In Iowa; Religion Driving Voters | Home | Bob Kerrey Apologizes To Obama »
Poll: Iowa A Three-Way Dead Heat For Dems
The new CNN poll in Iowa shows a three-way statistical dead heat on the Democratic side: Hillary Clinton 30%, Barack Obama 28%, and John Edwards 26%.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads with 33%, followed by Mitt Romney at 25%, Rudy Giuliani with 11%, and Fred Thompson and John McCain tied at 9% each.
Advertisement















Edwards is moving up fast. The momentum is real. People I talk with on the ground in Iowa are real happy.
Edwards is the candidate with the monentum, best policy proposls, and most electability.
December 20, 2007 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anybody but Hillary. Go Obama!
December 20, 2007 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Edwards seems to have the best ground game, and doesn't have to spend nearly as much time re-introducing himself. And he's just *hammering* his pretty finely tuned message - one that sounds pretty sincere because it hasn't changed in substance in four years.
He's apologized for his Iraq vote, and the bankruptcy bill vote, but otherwise, his record is pretty good. And better than not apologizing.
He also has that handy 80 pg booklet that people can flip through to find out his position on over two dozen issues.
Those elements, his mid-20s floor, his significant lead in 2nd choice, and his knowledge of canvassing and the caucus system I think will put him over the top, barring some (credible) scandal.
December 20, 2007 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
The media still don't like Edwards.
He's not one of the villagers and talks against corporations so he'll never be loved by the Broderites. Tweety may actually hate Edwards more than he hates Hillary.
December 20, 2007 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
An Edwards win in Iowa helps Hillary, the least electable candidate we can put forward in the general. So, although I like him, I don't see this as good news for democrats.
December 20, 2007 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now that Fineman has finally broken out of the Beltway echo chamber by admitting that both parties may not have an irreversible nominee on February 6, it's time for me to once again spring my favorite long shot perfect fantasy. Here goes:
Edwards wins Iowa, Obama a close second. Obama wins NH, with Clinton a close second. Either Obama or Edwards wins SC, with Clinton third. Edwards wins Nevada.
Tsunami Tuesday is a 3 way clusterfuck. No one emerges as the inevitable nominee. Obama and Clinton go back and forth as the delegate leaders, both with too much money, ego and organization to quit, and Edwards keeps pushing ahead, with enough union support to remain credible. Superdelegates peel away from Clinton, waiting for some sign. And it goes like that until Denver.
No one wins on the first ballot. Halfway through the second ballot delegates start murmuring about a white knight to save the day. At the end of the second ballot a draft Gore movement starts on the floor.
In the end the delegates turn to the one candidate who embodies BOTH change and experience, the only one running who has actually been elected president, the only candidate in American history with a Nobel Prize and Oscar.
Gore is nominated by acclimation. He picks Obama as VP, cuts a deal with Hillary for her to be majority leader in the Senate, and sweeps to the White House.
I know it's far fetched and a one in a million shot. But tell me you don't love it!
December 20, 2007 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to see an Edwards/Obama ticket. Obama needs more experience and would make a great VP to represent us around the world. I'd rather see Hillary Clinton in the Supreme Court than in the Executive branch.
December 20, 2007 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Donal, other than my Gore fantasy (which, come on - it is sweet, yes?), my dream ticket has always been Edwards-Obama. And Hillary as a Supreme? I like it!
December 20, 2007 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
most electability.
I know you mean that positively, but it's a real downer for supporters of the wealthy, straight, white male candidate to rub other people's noses in it.
December 20, 2007 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Question - is anyone giving credence to the Edwards Love Child scandal?
December 20, 2007 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Donal
Hillary put into the Supreme COurt? It never occurred to me. Can you imagine Scalia & Thomas? Maybe they'd just quit!
dc
December 20, 2007 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Organizer
In various comments at DailyKos, I've been predicting a brokered convention with a Gore nomination on the second or third ballot, for a couple months now.
I'd love to see someone with expertise run the numbers--esp. excluding Michigan's delegates--to see if a brokered convention seems likely.
The conventions have been week-long scripted infomercials for the last several cycles. Scripting "unexpected drama" into a convention, a la reality shows, doesn't sound so far fetched anymore.
December 20, 2007 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I do a lot of prediction research and have found some interesting facts.
Just to set the record straight, I don't really like Hillary Clinton but after I finished my research, she has my vote.
I found enough information that points to extreme problems with this country in the next 8 years and large numbers of population decline from everything from murder to economic deaths to financial collapse caused by a failing government and the figures go down to 2 years if we elect another republican president in the next election.
All the information points to the fact that this country needs an enema! And after examining the views and goals of the presidential candidates, I found that the only one that can help get this country back no the right path is Hillary Clinton.
Don't get me wrong, she will cost this country a great deal, but with the other possibilities that loom in our near future, it would be a small price to pay for reviving a great country like the united states.
December 20, 2007 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know I'm one of the ten percenters, but I still believe that Richardson is the best person for the job. But being a realist, I have hope for him as VP or Secretary of State.
Hillary as a Supreme? I don't think she has enough legal & court experience. I also don't think she would want it.
But if we do indeed have a brokered convention, my money is on Santos...
December 20, 2007 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that Edwards will win comfortably in Iowa. Hillary has really fallen apart in the home stretch just like Howard Dean did in '04. I see it Edwards, Obama, Hillary...in that order.
The polls in Iowa don't mean much because it is based on caucuses. That means it isn't one person, one vote. My understanding of the way it works is that within your caucus everyone has to throw their support behind the same person. So you can end up with a huge margin of victory for a single candidate and another candidate fading badly, again just like Dean in '04.
Edwards is the man with solid experience and truly solid ideas. Hillary has ideas, but it seems like she wants to give some special entitlement to everybody (funding, Hillary?) and she tosses them around like she's handing out candy before a Student Council election. I don't think that resonates with Iowans and the country at large, and people don't like how she's crumbled under the pressure during the last month. Obama is the Democratic version of Fred Thompson...lots of initial excitement but a very bland campaign. Obama has to get an issue to run on. We can get "change" by voting for anyone in the party.
So I think that Edwards is the guy. His populist message has kept him from the peaks and valleys that other candidates have experienced. It'll be Edwards with 35% of the vote.
December 20, 2007 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
One problem with a brokered convention - most delegates these days are pledged to one candidate (they're meant, after all, to represent a slice of the electorate that voted for that candidate in the primary).
At the 2004 convention, I was required to vote for Kerry: if I had voted for anyone else, my vote would have been discounted, I would have lost my floor credentials, and an alternate would have voted in my place. I'd imagine something similar would happen to "faithless" delegates from other states.
So say we have a three-way tie. That means that at least one of the candidates - and maybe two - would have to release their delegates before Gore would have a chance. It's much more likely that one candidate would support another one who already had delegates than to risk supporting someone who hadn't yet even declared.
I'm sure you knew the "draft Gore" dream was a longshot anyway, but I'd say it's next to impossible.
December 20, 2007 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The farmers in Iowa will never vote for Goldy Locks
They can see he is a phoney with off shore hedge funds
A populist?
He don't walk the walk,
December 20, 2007 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do believe TPM has been infiltrated by wing-nut trolls.
"JHo wrote on December 20, 2007 11:58 AM:
Question - is anyone giving credence to the Edwards Love Child scandal?"
This was on Drudge the other day, it originates at the National Enquirer. It goes like this: Drudge, Wing-Nut Blogs, Fox News, MSM. The Ho, is just a little ahead of the wing-nut curve.
December 20, 2007 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has the most realistic chance of stopping Hillary. Edwards is hemmed in by lack of finances and the fact he has spent his entire effort in Iowa. These two are likely to cancel each other out giving Hillary a free shot. With either Obama or Edwards out of the race Hillary would be toast. The best chance to stop Hillary IMO is for Obama to take Iowa and carry that momentum into N.H. and S.C.
December 20, 2007 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! A bold admission by CNN that there are THREE candidates for the Democratic nomination. Is this because, after months of seemingly unending chatter away about Hill and Barack, they realize that Edwards is likely to win this thing?
December 20, 2007 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I could never vote for Edwards
That whole hedge fund investment sub prime loan thing just rubs me the wrong way.
December 20, 2007 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
To Edwards supports:
I like the guy (I'm an Obama person), and I'm willing to do more than vote for him if he's the nominee. By that I mean I'm willing to canvass and volunteer, which I won't do for Hillary. But here's my concern - make the case to me that he can compete in the general with federal money. I just don't see it.
December 20, 2007 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Organizer, I LOVE your fantasy! Pretty much have had it myself. Still, though I think there's a good chance of Edwards and Obama in some combo of 1-2 in Iowa, Edwards would need to play too much catch-up in both financing and organization. From what I'm hearing, Obama not only has as much cash as Clinton, but his national organization outstrips hers.
As for Edwards/Obama, dream on... First of all, much as I love Edwards - and voted for him in 2004 - Obama's credentials are deeper. Remember, he only served one Senate term. Obama's been a legislator for more years; his organizer/constitutional-law-professor gigs aren't shabby either. Moreover, if either candidate were the nominee, they'd need their own Cheney, in a Glinda-the-Good-Witch way.
Oh, the dream of Gore/Obama... It's not going to happen but how it would change the world...
December 20, 2007 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
JHo, are you talking about the National Enquirer story? You know, that tabloid which is partly owned by New York investment banker Roger Altman, who is one of Hillary Clinton's key backers, as well as having been an official in Bill's administration? Altman who is often mentioned as a possible Clinton Treasury Secretary? Good try, Hillary. Interesting timing.
December 20, 2007 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
The country is ready for a woman as President. Just not this woman. The monumental change required to salvage this democracy requires new blood. The Clinton/Bush era is over. Republicans have shown they are interested more in obstruction rather than progress. The democrats have shown us nothing other than the the ability to cave in to the worst president in our history.With Hillary in office the republican party will spare nothing to accomplish her personal destruction they are so good at. She is the absolute worst candidate if our intent is to change. She represents the past. Bill Clinton did disgrace the office of the President among his many other failings as president. As a presidential team, they have had their chance. Eight years was enough. I cannot imagine two people who do not deserve to occupy the White House ever again. My support, time and energy is going to John Edwards. Of the candidates from both parties, of the flip floppers, liars, opportunists, religious fruitcakes, historical revisionists and outright fakes, John Edwards, with his own faults, represents the America we are all longing for and deserve. If this group of people are the best that this country can produce, John Edwards stands shoulders above the rest. He is easily the best hope to return this country to the people and away from the corporate, fascist and religious zealotry that is ruining this young democratic experiment called the United States of America.
December 20, 2007 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I HOPE Iowa Democrats and Democrats in general do not make the same mistake the other Party did when they fell for the charming family man Bush and his slogan of being a CC, replace the casting as a CC with the man of Hope and no verifiable record and imagine, have the last years taught nothing.
Its easy to transcend divisive politics when as Senator Obama has done, you just vote Present instead of Yeah or Ney on the hard stuff. The only thing new about that political strategy is the audacity to attack your opponent when it is your own inability to have the courage and competence to take and defend an unpopular position...instead of hoping in hind site that you had voted at all let alone differently.
December 20, 2007 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink