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Poll: Hillary Has Wide Lead In Nevada, GOP Race Close

A new American Research Group poll of Nevada finds Hillary Clinton with a wide lead over the Democratic competition here. Meanwhile, the Republican race could be turning into a dogfight between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee — so if Huckabee were to win Iowa, he might get a decent momentum bump here, too:

Democrats:
Clinton 45%
Obama 18%
Edwards 14%

Republicans:
Romney 29%
Huckabee 23%
Giuliani 17%
McCain 7%
Thompson 5%

Meanwhile, Bill Richardson is at a mere 2% support. Obviously, his hopes of winning Latino votes aren't panning out.


11 Comments

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Did all the Nevada LDS voters that switched from Republican to Democratic affiliation in order to vote for Jim Gibson (D-LDS) for Governor in the 2006 primary switch back yet?

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It is sad that you don't put any trend lines in there with the poll. I went on Real Claar Politics and it shows tha that Hillary has gone down to 45 from 51 when ARG last polled her in Nevada.

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Richardson has gotten somewhat better numbers in other Nevada polls (RCP has him averaging a little over 5), and of course he has plenty of time to turn that around.

For example if he has a surprise finish in Iowa (finishing a strong fourth or perhaps even third), I think he is well-positioned to build on that momentum in NH (again perhaps finishing third or even better). He would then have 11 days from NH to Nevada to make his case.

In fact, even if Richardson does not have a surprise finish in Iowa, I think he could still mount a surprise comeback in NH, and use that to make his case in Nevada.

Of course that is a lot of ifs, but they are based on the fact that it appears Richardson has established himself as the clear #4 in NH (averaging in the high single digits). And the polling I have seen suggests that NH voters are becoming increasingly aware of his depth of experience. So, if a good number of experience-oriented voters in NH are looking for a new home after Iowa (which is entirely possible), many of them may well end up gravitating to Richardson.

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Oh, and of course Clinton being down six and Obama being up 7 since ARG's October poll is broadly consistent with the overall trends we have been seeing both nationally and in the other early states.

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In fact Hillary has gone down from a 37 pt advantage over Obama to a 27 advantage over Obama. If that isn't a big change what is????

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rssrai,

Clinton actually had a 40 point lead over Obama in the October ARG poll (Edwards was in second in that poll, and she had a 37 point lead over him). So, roughly speaking her lead over Obama has been cut back by a third according to ARG.

Unfortunately, though, there really is not enough polling data from Nevada available to get a good idea of what is happening.

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Local Obama folks called last night looking for people to work my area. Anxious to people walking houses but I really don't think anyone is going to pay any attention here until after the New Year.

No real advertising on the ground but when Obama came through last month 5,000 people showed up.

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Stop her everywhere
IA, NH, SC, NV
End the Bush-Clinton dynasty party.
No to the planting panderer

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Hillary has a wide lead anywhere voters have not focused on the campaign. When they do, as in Iowa, New Hamphire and South Carolina, they see that Mrs. Bill isn't qualified to be president, has trouble giving straight answers, has a mean campaign, and as a Senator has shown terrible judgment.

Hillary's big lead in Nevada means they know her name. When they learn about who she is as a candiate, many and most will support someone else. It's a pattern state by state, and showing up nationally now. Poor Hillary, Bill was mean to her, the vast right wing conspiracy was mean to her, so were Edwards, Obama, Dodd, the media and now the pollsters. Should we elect Hillary the perpetual victim to lead the nation and the world? When it comes down to a vote, most people say NO!

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Obama is the one who needs to be stopped. He has deceived you all. Read the truth at:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/taylor-marsh/barack-obamas-progressiv_b_75933.html

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2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll

http://www.votenic.com

The Only Poll That Matters.
Results Posted Every Tuesday Evening.

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