Poll: Hillary And Obama Tied In NH, McCain Sneaking Up On Romney

Comments (37)

AlwaysTipTheWaitress wrote on December 21, 2007 8:47 AM:

Wow. What a way to freeze the race before the Holidays. Anyway, it should be interesting...... I won't be around to discuss Iowa and the run up to NH on this Blog. I'll be out of the country and away from Internet access and television except for international CNN right up to the NH primary. Thanks to everyone on this blog who has helped me clarify my thinking about the candidates over the past few months. And remember, let all Democrats love one another.
Happy Holidays.

Richard L. Adlof wrote on December 21, 2007 8:57 AM:

Clinton = 32%.
Obama = 32%
Romneyn = 34%.
McCain = 27%.

That's a crap load of Republicans . . .

Michael wrote on December 21, 2007 9:18 AM:

I'm in the same boat as AlwaysTipTheWaitress...I probably won't be commenting on here post-mid-afternoon today. I'm not leaving till Sunday but have a lot of errands to run tonight and Saturday night, and then a X-mas exchange Sat. night in advance of the trip.

With that in mind, best wishes and happy holidays to all who frequent this blog, and best of luck to Edwards supporters (sorry Clintonistas :D)

I have to say, for all I've enjoyed following this election, I'm glad I'm gonna be freezed out. I don't know if I can take it anymore!

Leye wrote on December 21, 2007 10:26 AM:

These polls are now becoming confusing. Three different polls and 2 are showing HRC in the lead. Which are we to believe?

Anonymous wrote on December 21, 2007 10:39 AM:

Edwards at 18%? That is a big increase from before, no?

taratrue wrote on December 21, 2007 10:50 AM:

I just love this. Yesterday Hillary had 2 polls released showing her big lead in New hampshire. I looked all over the political sites and so no headline saying "Hillary regains lead in NH!". Yet, the next day we get an even poll and once again, we get a deceptive headline "Obama and Hillary TIED". No mention that she is ahead by RCP average of over 6 points. No mention of yesterdays poll results by respected pollers.
This is what we Hillary supporters are talking about folks.

Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Biden Spread
RCP Average 12/10 - 12/19 - 34.0 27.8 16.3 7.2 2.7 Clinton +6.2
USA Today/Gallup 12/17 - 12/19 510 LV 32 32 18 8 4 Tie
American Res. Group 12/16 - 12/19 600 LV 38 24 15 5 4 Clinton +14.0
Rasmussen 12/18 - 12/18 791 LV 31 28 18 8 2 Clinton +3.0
CNN/WMUR 12/13 - 12/17 469 LV 38 26 14 8 2 Clinton +12.0
FOX News 12/11 - 12/13 500 LV 34 25 15 6 2 Clinton +9.0

Jon wrote on December 21, 2007 10:54 AM:

I agree. I was looking for that headline too. Not a mention.

Bernice Madden wrote on December 21, 2007 10:58 AM:

Amazing. Obama was down by 14 in their last poll. Hillary is losing momentum as people realize they will have to live with her for 4 years.

AS for TPM's headline, what do you expect when Greg Sargent is on team clinton's payroll. They deliberately will not give Obama any props. Unlike Hillary, he has to earn it all on his own.

yesterday is gone wrote on December 21, 2007 11:00 AM:

click on the bar graph polls on your right, for iowa and new hampshire. they show hillary in a downward trend.

yesterday is gone wrote on December 21, 2007 11:04 AM:

Amazing. Obama was down by 14 in their last poll. Hillary is losing momentum as people realize they will have to live with her for 4 years

somebody noted on another board, that bill clinton didn't show this level of contempt and vitriol against george w. bush that he reserved for barack obama.

when gore got up on a forum and told everybody bush was leading us down the wrong path, where was hillary? where was bill?

Tara wrote on December 21, 2007 11:08 AM:

No she is not. She is on an upward trend. Nationally she is beating Obama by a mile. 29 points.
The last 6 polls from NH have her beating Obama and shows a tie with this one recent poll. Just watch, the next few that come out will be showing Hillary's lead in NH is back. You just won't see any headlines about it because the media wants it to appear she is sliding. She is strong across the country and will win.

Jon wrote on December 21, 2007 11:14 AM:

Tara you are right. Here is the poll from yesterday.

New Hampshire

Presidential Primary Preference:

New Hampshire
Likely Democratic Primary Voters Nov 26-29 Dec 16-19

Biden 4%
Clinton 38%
Dodd 2%
Edwards 15%
Gravel 1%
Kucinich 2%
Obama 24%
Richardson 5%
Undecided 9%

American Research Group

Stacie Schooler wrote on December 21, 2007 11:27 AM:

National polls are BS. She has been leading in all polls for the last 6 months (up until a month ago). People are finally realizing what a witch she is. If her campaign actions and the people around her are any indication of how she will govern, we are in deep trouble and most folks are finally beginning to realize this. She is no leader and will polarize worse than Bush. Moreover, her purported "experience" is a fallacy. It is time for a chance and she ain't it.

David wrote on December 21, 2007 11:30 AM:

Look at the Intrade graphic on the right. Hillary is still a favorite among the bettors in London but folks are becoming hip to the fact that Barrack is the one with the momentum heading into the primaries.

Tara wrote on December 21, 2007 11:31 AM:

She is a great leader and will be a wonderful President. Obama does not have a chance. I will vote for him in 8 years.
He is not ready for Prime Time.

Simone Burzek wrote on December 21, 2007 11:54 AM:

She is not a leader. She is a divisive political animal. this country needs someone who can lead and bring it together. She is not that person. She belongs in the Senate. She is a calculating partisan hack. At least we finally got to see Hillary when the going got rough and she got desperate. The queen has no clothes.

Lucia Southworth wrote on December 21, 2007 11:57 AM:

Didn't the nasty Clinton campaign also say he didn't have a chance back when she was leading in Iowa and NH handily? You know, before they resorted to baseless comments about his kindergarten aspirations, drug use and religion?

I find it amazing that she somehow believes that she is entitled to be President. What a bitch! There I said it. I feel better. Pack it up Hillary. The momentum (and 50% of the electorate) is not with you.

Mr. T wrote on December 21, 2007 11:58 AM:

Now who voted for Iraq and Iran? Not Barack Obama. Methinks judgement is more valuable than experience.

Tara wrote on December 21, 2007 12:00 PM:

Oh...National Polls are BS??

Because your candidate is sinking in them.

Speaking of desperate...

Though Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has pledged to keep criticisms of his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, focused on the issues, ABC News has learned that his campaign secretly registered an internet domain name called desperatehillaryattacks.com, a Web site that may seem to insult the former First Lady personally.

The domain name -- and another one, Desperationwatch.com -- connects to a known Web site where the Obama campaign catalogues Clinton's attacks on the Illinoisan, hillaryattacks.barackobama.com But DesperateHillaryAttacks.com has not been known until now.

Related Stories
Obama: Negative Campaigns Will Backfire
"Apparently nothing says 'hope' like an attack Web site," quipped Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson.

But Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton denies that his campaign is calling Clinton "desperate." Rather, he insists, they are calling her attacks "desperate."

jeanba wrote on December 21, 2007 12:02 PM:

Tara,

You must be crazy if you think Hillary is going to win in NH, look at the number of indies, most of them polls have shown that they will vote for Barack, moderates repub and a high number of democrats. Barack wins IA, NH, SC and all the way to Nevada. Hillary is not a leader, she is manipulative, calculating, if nominated she will bring down dems majority in Congress. I can't vote for her, as a dem either primary or general if she wins (good thing she won't)the general. You people need to realize that a vote for Hillary will mean more 8 years of repubs. It's time she do something honorable in her life, PUT PARTY INTERESTS ABOVE HERS, then she will be remembered as a greater leader. Until now, Tara, she is no leader!

Dennis O wrote on December 21, 2007 12:04 PM:

Sinking in national polls? Is that all you got. Hillar is about to lose to both Edwards and Obama in Iowa and then lose NH. The only desperation is the desperation to have Bill wave a finger on Charlie Rose, Kerrey to say Obama is a Muslim, and that fat POS Marc Penn have Tourettes's about cocaine on Hardball. She is useless, her campaign is useless, she ain't no Bill, and she aim't no leader. She has the highest negatives of any Presidential candidate ever including W. And everyone is beginning to realize this.

Dennis OLeary wrote on December 21, 2007 12:05 PM:

Sinking in national polls? Is that all you got. Hillar is about to lose to both Edwards and Obama in Iowa and then lose NH. The only desperation is the desperation to have Bill wave a finger on Charlie Rose, Kerrey to say Obama is a Muslim, and that fat POS Marc Penn have Tourettes's about cocaine on Hardball.

She is useless, her campaign is useless, she ain't no Bill, and she aim't no leader. She has the highest negatives of any Presidential candidate ever including W. And everyone is beginning to realize this. National polls are BS since all of the candidates have been spending time in the primary states. Just wait to see the Obama bounce out of Iowa.

Barbara Goldman wrote on December 21, 2007 12:08 PM:

Jeanba - Me too.

If Hillary gets the nomination, I'm going to support Bloomberg (assuming he runs). It will be the first time in my 56 year old life that I have never voted for a Democrat and I hope others will as well. She does not have the demeanor or the communications gift to be President. She also does not have the experience she is seeming to run on. All she has is Bill. And that is obvious now that he is out there trying to win it for her.

BOB wrote on December 21, 2007 12:31 PM:

YES Obama has very little support nationaly.You Obama supporters will not listen to reason.Mrs. Clintons numbers are overall going up. You people do not know how to read these polls. You BO supporters just are not too bright or politically savy. What is your average age? 18? Furst election anyone? Well I have beed through 10 presidential elections and I can tell you Obama is done.

yesterday is gone wrote on December 21, 2007 12:41 PM:

kerry had very little support nationally before iowa.

Greg DeLassus wrote on December 21, 2007 12:48 PM:

yesterday is gone:

click on the bar graph polls on your right, for iowa and new hampshire. they show hillary in a downward trend.

Tara:

No she is not. She is on an upward trend. Nationally she is beating Obama by a mile. 29 points.

Dear Tara,

Were you attempting to rebutt Yesterday is Gone's point? If so, I guess that I am somewhat confused. YiG said that Sen Clinton is trending down in NH and you claimed that she is not, but if you look at the data to which YiG referred, she quite definitely is. Even in the nationwide (which scarcely matters, but you brought it up) her trendline is headed downward. She is of course, still far ahead nationwide, but as regards YiG's point, her trend is down. I am not sure how you arrive at the conclusion to the contrary; where are you looking that you see an upward trend line?

David wrote on December 21, 2007 12:50 PM:

Is it me or aren't the Obama attacks on Hillary all directed at policy and none personal, while the Hillary attacks - from cocaine, to kindergarten, to rolling the dice, to Muslimism - are all nasty personal attacks on Obama?

Full disclosure: I am an Obama supporter and can completely see why he decided to attack back after getting hit by her all summer. But his attacks do not seem to be as vicious and Rove-like as those from team Hillary.

Moreover, I don't think being good at this style of politics means that you are necessarily tough enough to face the GOP. Obama has now brought team Hillary down from a feeling of invincibility to desperation. Certainly enough to risk throwing Bill out there to save the day and confuse voters as to who is really running here and on what record. That is no easy task and team Obama did based on shrewd strategy and good decision-making...not nasty brute force.

I find it also interesting that when you read any of the accounts of inside Team Hillary, you get this composite portrait of winning at all costs, discrediting anyone who disagrees with you, and hitting their kneecaps if they connect. Is it me, or does anyone else get the sense that this is who they all are? That it is really just a game for many of them.

If she governs at all like she campaigns or surrounds herself with the same type of people we are in for yet another 4 years of polarization, nastiness, and partisanship. I think the country is ready (and in desperate need) of something different: intellect, judgement, conviction, and leadership.

PDiddy wrote on December 21, 2007 12:51 PM:

What ever happened to the often borne-out theory that pre-election polls overestimate the vote for a Black candidate? A certain percentage of people (5% I think) give the socially-acceptable answer and say they'll vote for the African American, but then vote for the opponent, creating a 10% swing.

It would be nice to think that times have changed, or that Democratic primary voters are better than the electorate as a whole, or that Obama is immune to this.

But I'm not so sure.

DM wrote on December 21, 2007 1:26 PM:

PDiddy,

I guess we'll find out what will happen soon enough. But personally I am optimistic. I believe Americans want to move beyond racism, and this is an opportunity to start doing that. We are tired of the politics of fear and division.

I do think the Clinton campaign's comments/slurs about race and ethnicity reveal their true character. They are desperate and they are wiling to do anything to win. The problem for them is that we the people are tired of these schemes. It's the kind of thing we've come to expect of George Bush and Karl Rove. And we want a change.

Greg DeLassus wrote on December 21, 2007 1:31 PM:

What ever happened to the often borne-out theory that pre-election polls overestimate the vote for a Black candidate?

A worthy concern, no doubt. The good news is that, with Iowa right around the corner, we will soon find out how big an issue that is.

Heretic wrote on December 21, 2007 1:44 PM:

It never ceases to amaze me that some of you netsroots simpletons think your interpretation of momentary changes in polling numbers is any way insightful or meaningful. It really is not. If you really have anything of substance to say about why anyone would want to vote for a do-nothing panderer like Obama, let's here it now. Convince us to vote for him. All I have see so far is a lot of pomp and not much substance (from Obama and the netsroots). One thing we know for sure is that people don't make up their minds in NH and IA until three days before voting, so the polls are very fluid in all directions and not at all meaningful. We shall see what's up in a few weeks. One thing I am positive about is that only 6% of eligible IA voters vote in the caucuses, so who really gives a flying crap what they think, anyway.

Greg DeLassus wrote on December 21, 2007 1:51 PM:

One thing we know for sure is that people don't make up their minds in NH and IA until three days before voting, so the polls are very fluid in all directions and not at all meaningful.

A worthy consideration, that. Thankfully, the elections are coming soon, so we will shortly have real results and not just these preliminary data.

Liam wrote on December 21, 2007 2:23 PM:

snark alert:

Yes, but wait until that second coming of The Gipper; Fred Basset Hound Thompson gets energized. He is resting up for the fray. Shhh. He needs his nap. Do not disturb. Zzzzzzzzzzz.

green heron wrote on December 21, 2007 2:37 PM:

Three truths:

National polls don't matter.

New Hampshire numbers don't matter until after Iowa.

Hillary is the devil.

Desider wrote on December 22, 2007 1:27 AM:

Taratrue,

Hillary's had the lead in every single NH poll in recent memory except for one. Though her margin certainly decreased.

But 2 weeks ago we were promised by all Obama fans that her campaign was tanking - I'm surprised we don't see double digit Obama leads by now. Only 17 more shopping days till New Hampshire Christmas.

yesterday gone wrote on December 22, 2007 8:48 AM:

DM: We are tired of the politics of fear and division.

amen.

we are also tired of divisive fear-mongering coming from the leading bloggers on the left who oppose obama.

DemAC wrote on December 22, 2007 10:19 AM:

Perhaps Gallup’s is a bad or a good poll (we’ll never know) but it’s rather special
likely voter model makes it incomparable per se to other polls showing Hillary Clinton leading. The Gallup model is based on the firm’s somewhat odd likely voter model, which requires respondents to answer questions, which are then scored along an eight point probability scale.

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