McCain Planning Campaign Swing In Iowa -- Is He Candidate To Watch?
Is John McCain the GOP candidate to be watching right now? His upcoming public schedule just landed in our in-box, and it tells us that McCain is planning a big three-day campaign swing through Iowa right after Christmas. This is interesting, because McCain had all but completely written off Iowa before, touting New Hampshire as the first state where he would make a real stand. But here he is returning to Iowa.
Why? If you look at Pollster.com's chart of Iowa polling for the GOP primary, you can see that with Rudy and Fred Thompson currently dropping in the state, McCain stands at least a shot at coming in third, behind Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. For McCain to come in third in a state he'd almost entirely given up on in advance would be a clear victory for him.
"That would be huge for us, though we really have our work cut out for us," one McCain adviser says, summarizing the (hopeful) thinking in the McCain camp. "Because the perception had been that we and Iowa had written each other off."
McCain has scored two key newspaper endorsements in Iowa, from the Des Moines Register and the Quad-City Times.
Over in New Hampshire, meanwhile, McCain is trending upwards, and with Rudy tanking there, too, McCain is on track to finish in second place. If he can rally in New Hampshire coming off a decent Iowa showing and finish a close second to Romney, or even beat him, that would mean two victories of sorts in a row in both key states.
The McCain adviser signals that the campaign is hoping to be able to spin a strong New Hampshire showing as follows: "A strong second place finish for us would be a victory, because no Massachusetts candidate has ever won in New Hampshire by less than eight points."
If McCain could follow that up with a strong showing in Michigan -- the state of Romney's birth -- he could find himself very well positioned for South Carolina. With the press starting to write the McCain-is-a-big-factor-after-all story, the fundraising bucks -- which are already up 500% on line this week -- could start seriously flowing again.
Anyway, the McCain campaign almost certainly lacks the cash to conduct internal polls, but the fact that he's going back to Iowa seems to indicate that the campaign is banking on the real possibility of a third-place finish. We'll see what happens.
Comments (16)
john mccutchen wrote on December 24, 2007 2:17 PM:I'm betting on McCain to become the "Only Candidate Who Can Stop Huckabee" sometime after Iowa or SC
And thanks Greg for a day off from campaign lit dumps here at TPMEhC! CNN just showed one Iowa family that received TWENTY pieces of political junk mail in one day
Mailings are a colossal waste of money
Walnuts just might pull it off after all. Probably the best of a sorry lot, although he's looking way more tired this time around than last. Some of his speeches and debate performances were Thompsonesque.
Don Smith wrote on December 24, 2007 5:34 PM:I live in IOWA.
I receive an average of EIGHT pieces of political junk mail per day.
I just throw it in the trash.
Richard L. Adlof wrote on December 24, 2007 8:15 PM:Des Moines Register endorsed Senator Wackadoo . . .
Hence the reason Keyes was in at the REP mass debate and Kucinich was excluded for the DEM debate.
W Action wrote on December 25, 2007 12:44 AM:McCain's back in Iowa for the same reason Bush went back to California right before the election--Rove's advising him, and Rove is a tactical idiot. McCain's gonna take 5th and will then tank in NH. Rove then goes over to Romney, whose phoniness is irresistable the Rover.
Kefa wrote on December 25, 2007 7:51 AM:Ron Paul will run 3rd party.
Dan wrote on December 25, 2007 11:47 AM:Campaign Diaries came out with new detailed rankings for the Dem and GOP race, and McCain has snatched the number one spot among the GOP. Is this bad news for Democrats?
Rudys Red Nose wrote on December 25, 2007 3:05 PM:McCains not rising so much as everyone else's feet of clay are dissolving in the heat of the blogs bright lights.
Lets all hope McCain does rise to the top of the septic tank. A psycho like him will self-destruct before the convention, leaving them open to drafting Bloomberg/Hegel.
yesterday gone wrote on December 25, 2007 3:59 PM:is ageism a stronger bias than sexism or racism?
Re wrote on December 25, 2007 5:44 PM:Does anyone have a link to this schedule :]?
Richard L. Adlof wrote on December 26, 2007 12:10 AM:Yesterday Gone,
Senator Wackadoo's insanity does not have dittly-squat to do with his age.
It is his happy hard-on for the Iraq Occupation.
It is his palsy-walsy relationship with the bastards that pooched his pasty white arse the last go around.
It his unnatural love affair with Joementum.
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I am pretty sure that McCain is already in third place in Iowa. He's been in double digits in three of the last five polls there, vs one each for Rude-boy and Fred.
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