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Mark Blumenthal: The Polls Can't Tell Us Who's Winning Iowa

By Eric Kleefeld - December 22, 2007, 2:53PM

So exactly which Democrat is ahead in Iowa? Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com has written up a summary of the latest surveys — and the short answer is that we don't know. The biggest problem is figuring out who exactly qualifies as a "likely voter" in such an unpredictable system as a caucus.

"What makes Iowa different is that the last source of variability. It is bigger and more consequential than for other types of polls," Blumenthal writes. "So if we take into account both the closeness of the Democratic race and all sources of potential poll error, we really have no idea who is truly 'ahead' at this point in the race. The polls are simply too blunt an instrument, especially given all the uncertainty about who will participate."

15 Comments

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True.

Posted by Jeremy
December 22, 2007 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink

Nevertheless, they can give an idea of what is going on and help us feed the hungry monstrer in us that demands new polls (for the latest new, polls and analysis from Iowa, check here).

Posted by Dan
December 22, 2007 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink

Even the campaigns going into that Thursday night won't really know. It's going to be a nail-biter.

Posted by cms
December 22, 2007 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink

I read this in total shock and disbelief . . . dcshungu has not yet posted a fifty paragraph treastise on why this means that Clinton coronation needs to be scheduled today and colonpowpow has posted a flame telling us all that we are all (fill in the blank with something icky) cuz we are not celebrating the obvious Obama victory that this article trully heralds . . .

For the rest of us . . . We will know the outcome on January 5th or so like I typed four or five months ago.

Have Happy Hollerdaze!

Posted by Richard L. Adlof
December 22, 2007 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink

No presidential campaign in US history has witnessed anything like the field organization that Barack Obama has been building throughout 2007

No campaign has ever opened 37 Iowa field offices

Posted by john mccutchen
December 22, 2007 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink

It'd be better to do generic polls measuring support amongst registered voters and forget about who will caucus and who won't. You could follow that up with a likelihood of turn out ratio to project the winners but keep it separate.

Posted by MattA
December 22, 2007 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink

Shouldn't the headline read: "Mark Blumenthal Attacks Polling"? .......just teasing, Eric.....

Posted by DonnaG
December 22, 2007 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink

its definitely a nail biter and neither the obama or edwards camp are denying it. Sad thing is... the Clinton's are obviously lowering the expectations stating that they "knew all along..." about the difficulty of her campaign in Iowa... ummm ... then why did they pour million of dollars into the state instead of simply skipping it? The slimyness continues..
Edwards/Obama '08!

Posted by Jackson Bravo
December 23, 2007 3:19 AM | Reply | Permalink

Jackson Bravo,
The campaign all but said it way back when with Mark Penn. Hillary telling her staff not to concede defeat months in advance doesn't mean they thought it would be easy or "inevitable". I don't know that Hillary's folks "knew it all along". And I actually think she might win, but I know a lot of Obama & Edwards people have more affinity for each other, making it more difficult in the weird caucus type event. (PS - it is strange to make an event that has what, 50,000 people? a bellweather of American politics).

Posted by Desider
December 23, 2007 7:51 AM | Reply | Permalink

Jackson,

The Hillary camp made it obvious long ago that this wasn't their strong state, but Hillary decided not to concede months early, probably to prevent an opponent from getting a foothold/momentum. If that's "sliminess", I must be confused - it sounds like sensible politics to me.

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December 23, 2007 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink

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