« New Edwards Ad: What Child Doesn't Deserve Health Care? | Home | Stumbo Talking Like A Candidate In Kentucky Senate Race »
Democrats Pour Cash Into Ohio Special Election
It looks like Democrats are sensing an opportunity in Ohio, where voters will choose a replacement for the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R) next week in the state's strongly Republican 5th Congressional District. The race is a longshot in terms of the district's previous voting patterns, but the Democratic Congressional Congressional Committee is still putting some money in.
According to the latest FEC filings, the DCCC has just made a $150,000 media buy against GOP candidate Bob Latta. Latta was bruised by a highly contentious primary with state Sen. Steve Buehrer, and the DCCC believes that populist Democrat Robin Weirauch just might have a shot in the district — even though the district supported Bush by a 22% margin in 2004.
Advertisement
Ted Strickland and the liberal Sherrod Brown both carried this district in 2006, so under the right circumstances even someone pretty liberal can win here. But "right circumstances" is the operative term. Yes the Ohio GOP remains demoralized and in trouble, yes Democrats are in a stronger position than before after having won a bunch of key statewide seats last year, yes the state and national environments remain generally bad for the Rethugs, and yes a special election is capable of having a weird turnout pattern depending on what each side does or doesn't do......but even with all that the natural partisan tilt is very difficult to overcome. Especially when the Rethug is a known name whose dad is a popular former Congressman.
I expect we'll lose this seat next Tuesday, but with an outside chance of an upset. But I'm glad we're contesting it--it shows political savvy for the national committees to realize this is a good place to play in a special.
December 3, 2007 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
There actually was a poll of this race released, with Latta up by a signignicant but not overwhelming margin.
December 3, 2007 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll
http://www.votenic.com
The Only Poll That Matters.
Results Posted Every Tuesday Eve
December 3, 2007 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Daniel, you failed to mention that it was Latta's own publically released poll that shows him ahead. And even the source you linked said his lead was rather weak given the Republican advantage in the district.
Sorry, but I don't trust publically released polls from a campaign showing their candidate ahead, even when a candidate should be ahead.
Looks like the DCCC did some polling and concluded it was worth it.
December 3, 2007 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
could we get a little more info in the main post about why the DCC would put so many bones into this race? sloppy
December 3, 2007 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Robin's campaign last year forced Rep. Gillmor to spend over $700,000 on his re-election compared to her $100,000 which was unheard of! She garnered the most votes for a Democrat in the history of the district, and I bet this was also a major factor for the DCCC to *finally* assist with her campaign!
I've known and respected Robin since she ran for office five years ago and has been the best bet we Dems have had in 70+ years!
Another nail in Latta's coffin is the fact that he and Randy Gardner have swapped state senate and house seats when they were term limited, and planned to do so again in '08 until Gillmor died.
Here's to victory on December 11th!!
December 3, 2007 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink