CNN National Poll: Huckabee Surges Into Statistical Tie With Rudy
Woah -- a major, reputable poll has found for the first time that Mike Huckabee has surged into a statistical tie with Rudy Giuliani. The CNN Survey finds that Rudy has 24% to Huckabee's 22%, a statistical tie that's well within the poll's margin of error. And this is nothing short of startling:
Huckabee doubled his support in October and doubled it again in November, going from 5 percent in October to double digits last month to over 20 percent this month, in the CNN poll.
Meanwhile, Romney is in third place with 16%, while John McCain is in fourth with 12%.
There's no longer any doubt that the Huckabee surge is very, very real, and is dramatically upending the GOP race.
In key findings, the poll says that Huckabee is the leader among GOP voters when they're asked which of the candidates shares their values. But, in a potential vulnerability, he's ranked fourth when respondents are asked who leads in "experience."
Comments (13)
Mormon Smormon lecture wrote on December 10, 2007 5:55 PM:Ask Romney if his fathers beliefes were racist.
Imagine where that would leave us If no one ever turned away from their fathers beliefs but always embraced them.
DTM wrote on December 10, 2007 6:02 PM:
By the way, Clinton is down four and Obama is up five since CNN's November poll, which cuts her lead from 19 to 10 now 40-30, Edwards at 14, the rest under 5). Clinton's peak lead in the CNN national polls was 30 back in October (51-21, so she is down 11 and Obama is up 9 in that time).
Also interesting to me: CNN asked Republicans which Democrat they thought would make the best President, and vice-versa.
Among Republicans it was: Obama 23, Edwards 19, Richardson 14, Clinton 13, Biden 9, Dodd 15, Gravel 4, Kucinich 3.
Among Democrats it was: Giuliani 24, McCain 24, Romney 12, Huckabee 11, Paul 10, Thompson 8, Hunter 2, Tancredo 2.
Sorry for the typos. That should be "Dodd 5" in the second to last paragraph.
Texas Ranger wrote on December 10, 2007 6:24 PM:Shows what an endorsement from Chuck Norris can do for your campaign.
JTL wrote on December 10, 2007 6:36 PM:I can't help thinking that Huckabee's surge is less about his suitability and more about the fact people don't really "know" him yet. Hasn't his surge come as people are finding out more about Rudy and Romney, and deciding they don't like what they see? And, right now, "none of the above" happens to be Huckabee.
Could he become nominee by default?
Orwell's Intuition wrote on December 10, 2007 6:37 PM:Drowning Republicans grasping at huck straws.
Uncle_Meat wrote on December 10, 2007 7:44 PM:Vote Ron Paul '08
John Crandell wrote on December 10, 2007 9:44 PM:Imagine if Edwards and Obama both were to agree to support one another in an end run around Clinton. They'd both commit themself to be the other's v.p. candidate if the other wins the nomination. As well, they would both swear off, disavow any interest in being the v.p. candidate with Clinton. This could have a fascinating effect on the campaign in the next eight weeks.
Atma wrote on December 10, 2007 11:54 PM:What a great idea, which means of course that they won't do it.
I think the thing with Huckabee is that he simply comes across much more human and simply likable than the other republicans. Less rough edges, and actually he seems to me to be the hardest candidate for democrats to beat. And I think the democrats will be too weak at attacking his weak points and taking full advantage of his skeletons. They will most likely shoot themselves in the foot on the Dummond rapist thing.
"The CNN Survey finds that Rudy has 24% to Huckabee's 22%, a statistical tie that's well within the poll's margin of error."
No, no no!
As Kevin Drum's handy chart shows a 2% lead with a 5% margin of error means there is a 66% chance that Rudy is actually ahead.
DTM wrote on December 11, 2007 3:21 AM:So places like RCP and pollster simultaneously published the Republican and Democratic results from the CNN poll.
Why did TPMEC only publish the Republican results?
Frog Leg wrote on December 11, 2007 8:20 AM:Jacob, the numbers on that chart are only valid for a representative survey sample. The numbers are not so good as they appear.
Richard L. Adlof wrote on December 11, 2007 8:53 AM:Cage Match!!! Ex-Pugsly v. the Wife-Exer!
Watch Rood-ee go all Kerik on Diet Boy who will tag off on Norris then Nugent then the idiot rah-sa-ler . . . Then the corporations will bring real money to to the contest.
