Can Huckabee's Religious Fervor Overcome Organizational Disadvantage In Iowa?
That's the key question in Iowa among Republicans right now. Time magazine goes on the ground in the state and explains the scope of Huckabee's challenge:
He boasts a paid Iowa staff of just 14, up from eight at the start of November. By contrast, Republican Mitt Romney, who comes in second in most polls, has 17 full-time Iowa staffers, and another 60 part-time organizers who have been in place for months. At the end of each Romney event in Iowa, the candidate implores supporters to fill out cards so they can be put in the campaign's data-base.At the end of Huckabee's events late last week, the candidate told his supporters instead to lure out their friends on caucus night by promising a free dinner. "Pull up to the house, honk the horn," he advised one crowd. "As soon as they get into the back seat, toss them a bologna sandwich and say, 'Eat quick. The caucus starts in 30 minutes.'"
Huckabee is trying to make up for this disadvantage by whipping up enthusiasm among the GOP's religious base. On that score, Time magazine notes, he has been going before small crowds and "comparing abortion to slavery," which is something I hadn't heard from Huck before. Can religious fervor of this sort overcome Romney's formidable organization? That's the question.
Comments (4)
Richard wrote on December 26, 2007 11:52 AM:When you have almost every Fundamental, and Southern, Baptist church organizing for you the disadvantage becomes the hidden advantage.
If the message boards the Sunday before caucus proclaim: False Faiths don't be deceived, or Christian Leaders Are You One?, Mitts a sure loser.
Greg wrote on December 26, 2007 12:04 PM:I have to say, it looks like you may be right. Mitt has a problem.
CalD wrote on December 26, 2007 12:43 PM:Good question! Romney's certainly got the infrastructural advantage, if nothing else.
If the Republicans played by the same rules as the Democrats I would be inclined to think that organization -- particularly having precinct captains on hand to sweep up the supporters of non-viable candidates -- might very well win the day. But lacking that extra twist, it seems like a more conventional GOTV contest and they say a really effective GOTV operation tends to be worth maybe an extra percentage point or two at best.
On the other hand, ol' Huck does seem to have kind of peaked somewhere around the middle of the month and at his current rate of decline, another week and an extra point or two might make the difference for Romney. I also see no evidence of Huckabee growing legs in NH so given all the hype about him in Iowa, even a narrow win by Romney in Iowa might go a long way toward helping him get his groove back in NH and beyond.
Jane wrote on December 27, 2007 9:40 AM:Huckabee shares the religious fallacy -- the tendency to confuse the symbolic with the real. In the debate over the use of "act of God" to describe a disaster in an bill to give greater relief to people he was willing to risk the relief to the people because he objected to the symbolism of holding God responsible for disasters. Putting more emphasis on God as a source of good rather than as a welder of power is reassuring but in pursuit of this symbolic goal he put real people at risk.
In the abortion debate the problem is similar -- conception is the symbolic beginning of life but everyone know knows -- as Aquinas didn't -- that a fertilized egg is a single cell not a minature human being. To think of it as a tiny human and not realizing that 50% of all eggs never make it to birth because of natural factors leads caring politicians to take steps which damage real people.
