The Concord Monitor has yet to endorse a candidate for either the Republican or Democratic primaries, but their editors have reached an agreement on one thing: Mitt Romney must be stopped.

In a new editorial, the liberal paper attacks Romney's candidacy and his shifting views, and even goes so far as to say the state's reputation is at stake in defeating him:

When New Hampshire partisans are asked to defend the state's first-in-the-nation primary, we talk about our ability to see the candidates up close, ask tough questions and see through the baloney. If a candidate is a phony, we assure ourselves and the rest of the world, we'll know it.

Mitt Romney is such a candidate. New Hampshire Republicans and independents must vote no.

Barack Obama is now going after John Edwards on campaign finance, specifically regarding the involvement of a former Edwards aide, 2004 campaign manager Nick Baldick, in the independent 527 ads on the candidate's behalf in Iowa.

Edwards has publicly distanced himself from the third-party ads but says that he cannot directly order them to stop because it would be illegal for him to coordinate directly. An example is this New Hampshire appearance from Wednesday:

More after the jump.

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So exactly which Democrat is ahead in Iowa? Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com has written up a summary of the latest surveys — and the short answer is that we don't know. The biggest problem is figuring out who exactly qualifies as a "likely voter" in such an unpredictable system as a caucus.

"What makes Iowa different is that the last source of variability. It is bigger and more consequential than for other types of polls," Blumenthal writes. "So if we take into account both the closeness of the Democratic race and all sources of potential poll error, we really have no idea who is truly 'ahead' at this point in the race. The polls are simply too blunt an instrument, especially given all the uncertainty about who will participate."

According to today's Washington Post, the Hillary campaign is planning to close out the Iowa and New Hampshire races with a "tight embrace" of her husband's legacy, an argument that only she is equipped to handle future foreign policy crises, and even an evocation of 9/11:

Clinton is preparing to make a closing argument to Iowa and New Hampshire voters that would center on the challenges of the presidency, arguing that only she can be trusted to handle the surprises and rigors of the job, according to her senior advisers. That emphasis, on her experience and her track record, makes the previous Clinton administration a vital part of her case.

Right after Christmas, these advisers said, Clinton plans to make the case on national security grounds, citing the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, as evidence that unexpected crises can arise. The argument is in some ways similar to the one President Bush made in 2004, when he campaigned on what he described as his proven leadership in the aftermath of the 2001 attacks and said the terrorist threat called for keeping him in the job. But Clinton is playing on more than just national security concerns, discussing economic security, as well.

"Time to pick a president" is the new theme, which will be unveiled in Iowa next week.

Obama's counterargument has been that whatever the successes of the 1990s, it has also saddled Hillary with a kind of political baggage that will make her less effective as a President than his "new politics" will. His response that it's "time to turn the page" is an implicit argument for a generational shift in leadership as well as a bid for the support of younger voters. Finally, Obama's also sought to undercut Hillary's arguments by saying that she's only claiming credit for the successes of her husband's era, not its failures.

At any rate, this is what it's partly come down to: An argument about the 1990s. The Post says Hillary's advisers think it's an argument she can win. We'll see what happens.

A nice catch from Steve Benen: He reminds us that John McCain criticized John Kerry's use of his Vietnam experience for campaign purposes back in 2004. At the time, he said he was "sick and tired of re-fighting the Vietnam War," adding that Kerry's use of his war heroism in the campaign was nakedly political.

Now, though, McCain is happy to use his own Vietnam experience for campaign purposes, most recently sending out a new mailer he's dropped in New Hampshire recounting the Christmas inspiration he took solace from during his days as a war prisoner in Vietnam.

To be clear, McCain should of course talk as much as he wants about his past experiences. But he shouldn't have criticized Kerry for doing it.

Third party groups supporting Hillary plunked down an astonishing sum of nearly $300,000 in political spending in one day yesterday, a cash outlay that will almost all fund mailings and phone-bank calls.

FEC filings show that the pro-choice group Emily's List shelled out nearly $190,000 yesterday for mailers and phone banks, while the American Federation of Teachers spent nearly $95,000 yesterday, all on direct mail. The filings show the dates of the expenditures, but not necessarily when the mailings will be sent or the calls will be made.

The nearly $300,000 is a big one-day buy that will almost certainly unleash a wave of mailings in the next few days, most likely in Iowa and perhaps in New Hampshire. At least one third-party mailing has already caused controversy in the race: Yesterday John Edwards criticized the Hillary campaign over a mailer sent out by a pro-Hillary labor union attacking Barack Obama's health care plan, saying that the mailing's inclusion of an Edwards quote was designed to suggest that Edwards was behind it.

As the race nears the voting, we'll see more big one-day money drops like these -- and we'll be cataloging them all here at TPM Election Central.

Okay, this could be significant. For the first time, a reputable poll has found that Rudy is behind, and Mike Huckabee has edged into a slight lead, in the national GOP primary.

The GWU Battleground poll finds that among likely voters, Mike Huckabee is first with 24%, Rudy is second with 22%, Mitt Romney has 16%, John McCain has 15%, and Fred Thompson has nine percent.

Though Rasmussen has found Huckabee with a national edge, those are robo phone polls; the GWU poll is a reputable telephone survey. Several other polls have found the two tied.

But now, for the first time, Huckabee has earned more respondents in a reputable poll.

A source close to the McCain campaign tells me that online fundraising is up 500 percent this week over the previous weekly average -- a reflection of the Arizona Senator's lift in the polls and some key endorsements he garnered in recent days, such as that of the New Hampshire Union Leader.

"We had the Union Leader, and we had a kick-ass six day trip," the source says.

In another positive development, the source says there's been a rise in the number of people calling the campaign to volunteer their services. Interestingly, the callers are volunteering on the strength of having seen the mailer that McCain recently dropped in New Hampshire telling of the Christmas inspiration he felt during his days in captivity as a war prisoner in Vietnam:

"It's incredible," says the source. "People who see the mailing are calling in, saying they want to join."

At any rate, such developments are producing something approaching good cheer in the McCain camp.

Late Update: One necessary caveat: As Josh says, "big percentage jumps are a lot easier to put together when you're coming back from near zero."

A new Zogby poll shows that Barack Obama is the most electable of the top three Democratic candidates, followed by John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.

Of the three Dems, Obama is the only one to beat five Republicans in all match-ups. Hillary loses to Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, while Edwards can beat Huckabee but loses to Giuliani and McCain.

The full numbers are available after the jump.

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Check out this new campaign mailer we've obtained that John Edwards has just dropped in Iowa. It highlights one of the most important cases of Edwards' trial lawyer career -- his representation of Valerie Lakey, who was injured by the drain suction at the bottom of a pool because of a faulty drain cover.

The mailer features a riveting letter written to Iowa caucus-goers by Valerie's parents about Edwards' role in helping their daughter. The text of the letter is after the jump.

The mailer is designed to coincide with a big economics speech Edwards is giving today at a community college in Des Moines. Today Edwards is spending the day campaigning in Iowa with Valerie and her parents.

The mailer, as well as his tour today with the girl, is obviously meant to advance his campaign's argument that the fighting he did in court was good preparation for the fight Edwards is looking to wage as President against entrenched interests in Washington, D.C. The backdrop for this argument, of course, is Edwards' claim that only he fully understands the extent to which fighting, as opposed to consensus building, is what will be required if the next President is serious about realizing genuine reform.

Text of the letter from Valerie's parents is after the jump.

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Big, big questions abound in the Democratic Presidential primary today. Such as: Exactly what, or who, is the Obama campaign calling "desperate" with the new Website they launched today?

This morning the news broke that the Obama camp has produced a site called DesperateHillaryAttacks.com.

This naturally gives rise to the question: Is Hillary being called desperate here? Or are her attacks being called desperate? Is "attacks" a noun or a verb here?

Well, the Obama campaign says only the attacks are being called desperate, not Hillary, presumably because the Obama camp doesn't want to open itself to the charge that it is attacking her personally:

Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton denies that his campaign is calling Clinton "desperate." Rather, he insists, they are calling her attacks "desperate."

But wait! Over on DesperateHillaryAttacks.com, we find this:

As her lead in the polls shrinks, Senator Clinton's flagging campaign grows more desperate each day.

It looks as if Obama is saying that Hillary, or at least her campaign, is desperate, after all. Which means the Obama campaign may have just opened themselves up to...a potential attack.

In fairness, it should be noted that most of the site is devoted to saying that her "attacks," not her campaign, is desperate. And that gives rise to one final question which we'd love to hear from readers on: Does calling someone's attacks desperate count as an attack, too? Or does calling someone's attacks desperate fall short of an attack?

Let us know.

Late Update: I feel almost embarrassed to add this, but this post was intended as a joke -- as a spoof of the fact that the campaigns are all attacking each other relentlessly for attacking. This whole effort by all the campaigns to portray everyone but themselves as the real attacker seems to me misguided -- primaries should have conflict in them; they should be animated by aggressive disagreements.

Mitt Romney has a new ad running in the land of his birth, Michigan, talking about his concerns regarding the state's economy — and using footage from the Dearborn debate back in October:

By running the ad here, Romney may be shoring himself up against the Huckabee insurgency — a recent poll showed the two of them tied here. Michigan's primary will be held one week after New Hampshire, so it's important to be ready to go, and have good poll numbers ready in advance.

On Wednesday, John Edwards challenged his rivals to join him in supporting a hike of the minimum wage to $9.50 an hour. Late yesterday, Hillary announced that she'd introduced a bill to accomplish just that:

“With stagnant wages and skyrocketing costs for healthcare, energy and college, working families in America need a break. That is why yesterday I introduced legislation to raise the minimum wage to $9.50 by 2011, and link the minimum wage to Congressional pay raises after that,” said Clinton in a Thursday statement. The senator said the measure was “the first bill ever to call for a $9.50 minimum wage.”

The Hillary campaign says that Hillary actually introduced the bill Wednesday, though it didn't announce this until late yesterday. Whatever the sequence of events here, it's clear that Edwards' impact on this race has been to yank the debate to the left on a bunch of fronts, including this one.

Late Update: The Hillary campaign points out that she has a long record of working to raise the minimum wage. For instance, she introduced legislation to do this back in 2006.

Bill Richardson, who previously decried attacks against Hillary Clinton, is now going after her for saying she would withdraw nearly all American troops from Iraq within her first year as president. It's a big change from his previously friendly rhetoric, and might go a way in dispelling the idea that he's just angling for the VP slot.

"Senator Clinton's comments are a stunning flip-flop," Richardson told the New York Times. "She's been saying she would keep troops in Iraq for five years, until 2013, and now she comes up with an inconsistent, incredible turnaround."

Late Update: The Hillary campaign already has their rebuttal posted. Richardson is actually misquoting her by saying she called for all troops to be brought home. This is what she really said:

“I think we can bring home one to two combat brigades a month,” Hillary said. “I think we can bring nearly everybody home, you know, certainly within a year if we keep at it and do it very steadily.” This would still allow for a small residual force.

Mike Huckabee has become the first known presidential candidate to comment on Jamie Lynn Spears, the pregnant 16-year old sister of Britney Spears. "Apparently, she's going to have the child and I think that is the right decision, a good decision, and I respect that and appreciate it," Huckabee told reporters in Iowa. "I hope it is not an encouragement to other 16-year-olds who think that is the best course of action.

"But at the same time I'm not going to condemn her. There'll be plenty of people in line to do that and I always look for the shortest lines. I just hope that she will make another right decision and that's to give that child all the love and kindness and care that she can."

A new American Research Group poll finds that incumbent GOP Senator John Sununu leads former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen by a 52%-41% margin. This is the first time since polling began on this race that Sununu is ahead, and previous polls have all shown Shaheen leading by a healthy margin.

Sununu's upsurge could be happening for any number of reasons — or this poll could just be an outlier — but there is one particular possibility: That the recent attacks from Jeanne's husband Billy, against Barack Obama's teenage drug use, might have taken a toll on her Senate campaign.

The new Gallup poll in New Hampshire shows a tied race on the Democratic side, with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama at 32% each, and John Edwards with 18%.

On the Republican side, John McCain appears to be securing a position as the anti-Romney candidate. Mitt Romney has a 34%-27% lead over McCain, with a three-way tie for the distant third place: Rudy Giuliani 11%, Mike Huckabee 9%, and Ron Paul 9%. If Rudy Giuliani comes in fourth or even fifth in New Hampshire, behind Huckabee and/or Paul, can he really remain a viable candidate?

Mitt Romney has been forced to get into some serious verbal gymnastics over his previous declaration about seeing his father, the late Michigan Gov. George Romney, marching with Martin Luther King. A close examination of the historical records shows that the elder Romney, while he was a strong support of civil rights, never actually appeared with King.

"I've tried to be as accurate as I can be," Romney told reporters. "If you look at the literature or look at the dictionary, the term 'saw' includes being aware of — in the sense I've described."

"I'm an English literature major," he added, after the questions didn't stop. "When we say I saw the Patriots win the World Series, it doesn't necessarily mean you were there." (Yes, he did speak off the cuff about the idea of a football team winning the World Series.)

Mitt Romney can now claim an intriguing distinction in the presidential field: He is a candidate who has had both major hometown newspapers endorse somebody else. The conservative Boston Herald published its editorial today in favor of John McCain, whom the paper called "a steady, experienced leader, a person so trusted that we would put the fate of this country in his hands."

The other major Boston paper, the larger and more liberal Boston Globe, has also endorsed McCain for the Republican nomination.

The new Strategic Vision (R) poll in Iowa has a statistical three-way tie on the Democratic side: Barack Obama 30%, Hillary Clinton 27%, and John Edwards 27%. In their last poll a week ago, it was Obama 33%, Hillary 25%, Edwards 24%. Now, it's anybody's game.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee's lead over Mitt Romney has not changed significantly, with Huckabee at 31%, Romney 25%, and Fred Thompson 16%. A week ago it was Huckabee 30%, Romney 25%, and Thompson 13%.

At a campaign appearance in Iowa today, Hillary ramped up her argument that she's the only candidate in the race who is "up to speed" on "military matters," offering the following construction:

"It is tempting any time things seem quieter for a minute on the international front to think that we don't need a president who is up to speed on foreign affairs and military matters," Clinton said.

"Well, that's the kind of logic that got us George Bush in the first place," she said to laughter from her friendly audience at a high school auditorium. "Experience in foreign affairs is critical for ending the war in Iraq, averting war in Iran, negotiating a Middle East peace and dealing with North Korea."

In response, Obama aides were quick to point to past remarks by Hillary adviser Howard Wolfson, in which he appeared to aggressively criticize the idea of comparing any Dem candidate to Bush. On CNN back in July, Wolfson said the following in a discussion about Obama's comparison of Hillary foreign policy to "Bush Cheney lite":

And, with all due respect, if you want to talk about tactical political maneuvering, it's about one Democrat comparing another Democrat to George Bush. That's the worst kind of tactical political maneuvering.”

I'm going to let you guys fight this one out.

Late Update: Ben Smith has more here.

A new SurveyUSA poll finds that Virginia — which hasn't voted Democratic for president since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964 — may be on the verge of going Dem in 2008. When matched against four top Republicans, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama win seven out of eight heats:

Clinton (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 53%, Romney (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 54%, Huckabee (R) 40%
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 46%
Obama (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Obama (D) 50%, Romney (R) 43%
Obama (D) 51%, Huckabee (R) 42%
McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 44%

It's interesting that despite the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton is too polarizing for red/purple states, she actually runs better in this particular state than Barack Obama does.

Another national poll -- the new Fox News survey -- finds that Rudy has lost his national lead. And strikingly, it also finds a three-way tie nationally for the Republican nomination — with the previously moribund John McCain one of the trio.

Rudy has 20%, Huckabee 19%, and McCain 19%. Behind them are Mitt Romney at 11% and Fred Thompson with 10%. A month ago, Rudy had a healthy lead with 33%, with McCain his closest competitor at 17%. Huckabee, meanwhile, has shot up 11 points.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has actually widened her national lead even as she's started to struggle in the key primary states. Hillary has 49%, Barack Obama 20%, and John Edwards 10%. A month ago it was Hillary 44%, Obama 23%, and Edwards 12%.

Tom Tancredo dropped out of the presidential race today at a press conference in Des Moines. On his way out the door, he did in fact endorse a candidate: Mitt Romney.

We'll find out in the next two weeks if Tancredo's support will help Romney at all among the sort of rabidly anti-illegal immigration voters that Tancredo had long courted, despite Tancredo's own inability to have made any way in the polls.

Late Update: Tancredo declared at the press conference, "For the same reason that I launched the campaign, I must now end it." Presumably he was referring to his stated purpose at the campaign's outset, to drive the Republican Party his way on immigration.

And he very much succeeded, with even formerly conciliatory pols like Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani embracing a harder line. As Tancredo wryly stated at the YouTube debate, "all I've heard is people trying to out-Tancredo Tancredo."

Hillary Clinton's new ad in New Hampshire features the candidate speaking directly to the camera, rebutting a point often made by her competitors — especially Barack Obama — that this election needs to be about change. Instead, she says, change comes with experience, the kind she can offer:

Rudy Giuliani's pollster, Ed Goeas, held a conference call with reporters that was designed to let them know that the campaign isn't at all worried about his precipitous plunge in the polls. But a couple of things he said inadvertently indicate in stark terms just how bad things have gotten for Rudy.

In response to a WSJ/NBC poll released yesterday that showed that Rudy's national lead has effectively evaporated, Rudy's pollster made two points. The more predictable one was that Rudy's grand strategy turns on winning in Florida, meaning that the national numbers don't matter.

But in that state, which is the centerpiece of Rudy's game plan and represents his last hope, Rudy has seen his lead slip as Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have both surged.

More interesting was this reaction from Rudy's pollster to the WSJ/NBC poll:

Goeas dismissed the poll, saying that he prefers to pay attention to the average of the last several polls, which he said still puts Giuliani ahead by several points.

Now Rudy's pollster is taking solace from the fact that his national lead is "several points." That's pretty revealing, considering that Rudy's national lead over the summer was in double digits.

Quite a fall.

"I don't plan to fight with him. He's throwing punches and I'm saying 'Merry Christmas.'"

— Mike Huckabee, quoted by CNN, dismissing Mitt Romney's attacks against him as the product of desperation and sagging poll numbers.

Mike Huckabee is mounting a serious counter-attack against Mitt Romney's recent efforts to tar the Arkansas governor over the explosive story that he pushed for parole for a serial racist who later went on to commit murder.

In repeated appearances, Huckabee has pushed back against Romney's charge with a strategy that seems counterintuitive for a Republican primary: He's attacking Romney for not granting clemency, in a case where Romney denied the request of an Iraq War veteran over a juvenile incident involving a BB gun. Making this veteran even more sympathetic, he wanted Romney to grant the clemency so that he could be eligible to become a policeman.

Here's some video of him making this argument yesterday on Morning Joe:

More after the jump.

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Okay, stay with us on this one: John Edwards is going after Hillary over a mailer that is attacking Obama. We'll explain.

This morning MSNBC broke the news that a new mailer had been dropped in Iowa faulting Obama's health care plan as follows: "For those without insurance, Barack Obama's band-aid solution is no change at all."

The mailer also uncritically showcased a quote from Edwards, something that could lead readers to think that it came from Edwards -- but in fact, it was produced by a local union that's backing Hillary.

Now the Edwards campaign has stepped forward to criticize the tactic, suggesting that Camp Hillary was deceptive while stopping short of saying outright that the Hillary campaign is the target of its criticism. In a newly-released statement, Edwards Iowa state director Jennifer O'Malley Dillon said: "There have been a lot of misleading tactics and tricks in the last few weeks, but we've just never seen anything like this...It's fine to have an honest debate about policy, but Iowans deserve better than planted questions and campaign fliers designed to fool them.”

So, to recap: Edwards is hitting Hillary over a mailer attacking Obama.

Only two more weeks to go until the voting begins, ladies and gents. At this rate, it can't happen soon enough.

Late Update: Some commenters are saying this post looks like it's critical of Edwards. If that's how it was received, I didn't intend it. I'm not faulting Edwards for his criticism of Hillary -- rather, I was just pointing to the overall merry-go-round intra-Dem attacks and saying that it'll be nice when it's over.

One of the lines of criticism that Hillary Clinton has employed against Barack Obama has been to fault him for his tendency to vote "present" on difficult votes, rather than for or against.

Now today's New York Times has front-paged an article examining Obama's voting record as a state senator in Illinois. They found that he voted "present" on a total of 130 votes, including 36 times when Obama was one of six or fewer legislators to do so. Some of the votes included criminal justice bills where a "No" vote would have made him appear to be soft on crime.

More after the jump.

Late Update: ABC News reports that the Hillary campaign is taking advantage of the situation by registering two domain names, presumably for future anti-Obama sites — VotingPresent.com and VotingPresent.org.

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The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee continues to hold a strong cash advantage over their Republican counterparts, Roll Call reports, and it's only getting bigger.

The DSCC raised $4.1 million and spent $2.1 million for the month of November, and has $25.5 million cash on hand. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, on the other hand, only brought in $2.3 million and spent $1.4 million, and has $10.4 million on hand.

The new NBC/Wall St. Journal poll appears to show that Rudy Giuliani's national lead has evaporated. Rudy is tied with Mitt Romney at 20% each, followed by Mike Huckabee at 17%, John McCain with 14%, and Fred Thompson at 11%. A month ago, Rudy had 33%, McCain 16%, Thompson 15%, Romney 11%, and Huckabee 8%.

Hillary Clinton continues to have a big national lead on the Democratic side: Hillary 45%, Barack Obama 23%, and John Edwards 13%. There have been no significant changes since last month.

The new SurveyUSA poll in South Carolina shows a dead heat between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Hillary has 41%, with Obama at 39%, and Edwards with 17%.

In their poll last week, Hillary had 44%, Obama 40%, and Edwards 11%.

Former Senator Bob Kerrey (D-NE) has sent a letter to Barack Obama, apologizing for the recent flap over his public references to Obama's background and Muslim heritage, made at an event where he endorsed Hillary Clinton. In the letter, he also called Obama "exceptionally qualified by experience and judgment to be president of the United States."

"I answered a question about your qualifications to be president in a way that has been interpreted as a backhanded insult of you," Kerrey wrote. "I assure you I meant to do just the opposite."

The full letter is available after the jump.

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The new CNN poll in Iowa shows a three-way statistical dead heat on the Democratic side: Hillary Clinton 30%, Barack Obama 28%, and John Edwards 26%.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads with 33%, followed by Mitt Romney at 25%, Rudy Giuliani with 11%, and Fred Thompson and John McCain tied at 9% each.

Another poll, this one from WaPo/ABC News, finds that Mike Huckabee is holding his lead in Iowa over Mitt Romney. He's beating Mitt 35%-27% among those likely to caucus.

And check out this number in the poll, which shows the extent to which his support is driven by evangelicals, who make up almost four in 10 likely caucus goers: They are choosing Huckabee over Romney by the astonishing margin of 57%-19%.

Full poll here.

John McCain's campaign is getting serious about Common Sense Issues, the independent group running a series of robo-push-polls promoting Mike Huckabee and ripping on all the other Republicans. The campaign has sent a letter to the New Hampshire Attorney General's office, asking them to investigate the group on the grounds that the calls fail to disclose that they are are working on Huckabee's behalf.

The Union Leader noted today that the calls do not fall under the state's push-polling ban, as that law expressly exempts calls made for the presidential primary. However, the McCain camp may just have them on another statute.

"Among perhaps other violations of New Hampshire law, these reported calls clearly violate RSA 664:16-a," the letter says, "which requires any person engaging in push-polling to 'inform any person contacted that the telephone call is being made on behalf of ... a particular candidate.'" The calls reportedly do not actually say they are in favor of Huckabee.

The full press release is available after the jump.

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Well, the nativist demagoguery was fun while it lasted. Tom Tancredo is expected to drop out of the presidential race tomorrow, two weeks to the day before the Iowa caucus. Tancredo had also indicated previously that he is not running for re-election to the House.

Tancredo had struggled to break through as a candidate in his own right, but he can probably take some satisfaction in seeing so many of the other candidates take a hard line on immigration, including those who had been more conciliatory in the past. As he said at the YouTube debate, "all I've heard is people trying to out-Tancredo Tancredo."

One of the more intriguing subplots of Campaign 2008 has been the ongoing battle between the Obama campaign and liberal NYT columnist Paul Krugman. In an interview with TPM Election Central, Krugman reiterated his critique of Obama, which centers largely but not exclusively on health care policy, and added a whole lot more.

Here's a quick sample of Krugman quotes from the interview:

On health care Obama is behaving as kind of, "Let's make a deal." The idea that he would be talking even in the primary campaign about the big table is suggesting that he is not all that committed to taking on special interests.

On the big problems there's a fundamental, deep-seated difference between the parties. I've always just felt that his tone was one suggesting that his inclination is to believe that we can somehow resolve these things through a kind of outbreak of good feeling...

Among the Dems he seems to be the least attuned to what progressives think.

A full transcript of an edited version of our conversation is after the jump.

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John Edwards has his own holiday-themed ad out, asking viewers to not forget homeless veterans, people living in poverty, and others who have been left behind:

"In America, the chance to build a better life is a promise made to each of us," Edwards says. "And the obligation to keep it, rests with us all."

Attacks on the traditional press have become a key political weapon in the arsenal of mainstream Dem primary candidates, but this is taking things to a higher level.

We've just obtained an advance copy of a snarky, pointed memo that the Edwards camp will soon send out calling out the press for its general coverage of his campaign. While most such broadsides against the press from campaigns come in response to individual stories, this one is aggressively disputing a broader media meme: That Edwards, unlike Obama and Hillary, isn't really running a national campaign.

From the memo:

Dear Friends in the Press Corps,

We here at the Edwards Campaign urge you to not swallow the spin of our rivals. John Edwards is, in fact, running a national campaign. In addition to the well-reported strength of our operation in Iowa, we have less-well-reported, but just as strong operations in states all across the country. We have eight times the number of field staff in the state of New Hampshire than the Edwards campaign had in 2004; we recently added two dozen field staffers in Nevada; and we were the first candidate to run ads in South Carolina (the state John Edwards was born in and won by 15 points in 2004). Given our support throughout the labor community and advisors at work in all February 5th states, we will have the infrastructure in place to seize on momentum from strong early place finishes. But you don’t have to take our word for it.

Introducing, Edwards By The Numbers...

The memo then comprehensively makes the case that his campaign is a national one with a fusillade of statistics. Full memo after the jump.

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John McCain has a new ad in New Hampshire, detailing how he called for the surge in Iraq early on, which is now "a remarkable success," and how he didn't back down from criticism:

"One man does what's best for America," the announcers says, "not what's easy."

New polling from Rasmussen shows John McCain surging in both Iowa and New Hampshire, while Mike Huckabee has lost some of his previous advantages.

In Iowa, Huckabee now has a narrow lead of 28% to Romney's 27%, with McCain now in third with 14%. That's a huge change from their last poll a week ago, when Huckabee had 39%, Romney 23% and McCain was in fifth place at 6%.

In New Hampshire, Romney has 31%, McCain 27%, Rudy Giuliani 13%, and Huckabee 11%. A week ago, it was Romney 33%, McCain 18%, Giuliani 15%, and Huckabee 14%.

On the Democratic side in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton has 31% to Barack Obama's 28%, with John Edwards at 18%. A week ago it was Obama 31%, Hillary 28%, and Edwards 17%.

An intense new ad from Mitt Romney in New Hampshire:

Interestingly, it features Romney invading Rudy's turf -- he apparently came to New York with a friend whose daughter was missing in the city. You can probably guess the outcome.

Which of the candidates has been most aggressively scrutinized by the media? According to Barack Obama spokesman Bill Burton, who was quoted today on the topic by The Washington Post's Howard Kurtz, the answer is Barack Obama:

Obama spokesman Bill Burton says the accusation of softer treatment is untrue but "the Clinton campaign whines about it so much, it becomes part of the chatter. No candidate in this race has undergone more investigations and examinations than Barack Obama has," he says, citing lengthy pieces in the Chicago Tribune and New York Times.

Readers? Agree or disagree?

Hillary has already been the target of two major books by the nation's leading investigative reporters; Obama was the subject of one from a Tribune reporter. Serious scrutiny of Obama by the national press got started in earnest this year; Hillary has been getting scrutinized for 15 years, though it is possible that Burton meant to refer here to the period of Campaign 2008 alone.

It's true that Obama has been the subject of some serious investigative probes, as well as plenty of scurrilous efforts to uncover proof of his early drug use and nonexistent Muslim past. But I'm not sure how you can argue that he's been more examined than Hillary. Of course, I'm also not sure that it's a terribly relevant question, either -- we already know an enormous amount about both figures.

Thoughts?

Late Update: We have more analysis of coverage of Hillary right here.

If they're lucky, the Republicans might have one less open House seat to deal with. Roll Call reports that Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-MN), who announced his retirement in September, is reconsidering his decision. The swing seat is seen as a major pick-up opportunity for the Democrats, but only if Ramstad were to leave it open.

Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI), a friend of Ramstad's and a collaborator on proposed mental health parity legislation, said that the possibility of the legislation passing next year would be a big influence for Ramstad — which means that if the Democratic leadership could speed it through early in the year, Kennedy argues, Ramstad would be more comfortable with his decision to retire.

Barack Obama has a new ad in all four early states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — in which he and his family thank the people for hearing him out, and wishing them a happy holiday season:

A lot of voters would probably be turned off by negative ads being run over the holidays, so expect more ads like this from all the candidates. And since the Iowa caucus is only two days after New Year's Day, there won't be a whole lot of time for any more negative ads.

(Via Ben Smith)

The new CNN poll of New Hampshire confirmed that John McCain is surging ahead on the Republican side — while Rudy Giuliani is sinking. Mitt Romney still leads overall with 34%, followed by McCain at 22%, Giuliani with 16%, and Mike Huckabee at 10%.

Jonathan Martin notes that Giuliani recently scaled back his ad buys in New Hampshire in order to focus on Florida — and poll numbers like this could help explain why. The question, though, is whether he can survive being way at the back of the pack in Iowa, followed up by third place in New Hampshire.

Hillary Clinton has a new ad in Iowa, touting the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, and the praise they gave to her record and experience:

The ad certainly fits in with the overall narrative of the Hillary campaign: "Every stage of her life has prepared her for the presidency."

Mike Huckabee's national surge is apparent in a new Zogby poll, in which he trails Rudy Giuliani now by only a single point. Rudy has 23%, Huckabee 22%, Mitt Romney 16%, Fred Thompson 13%, and John McCain 12%. A month ago, Huckabee was 18 points behind Rudy.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has 40%, Barack Obama 32%, and John Edwards 13%. A month ago, Hillary led Obama 38%-27%.

A new CNN poll of New Hampshire finds Hillary Clinton regaining a strong lead over Barack Obama, with Hillary at 38% to Obama's 26%, with John Edwards at 14%.

A week ago, Hillary's lead had been driven down an insignificant 31%-30% edge.

The new ABC/Washington Post poll shows Barack Obama leading in Iowa with 33% support, followed by Hillary Clinton at 29%, and John Edwards with 20%. Among those whose first choice is below 15% viability, Obama leads as the second choice with 37%, with Hillary at 31% and Edwards at 26%.

Some caution, though, comes in the difficulty of producing a turnout model for the caucus: "Applying tighter turnout scenarios can produce anything from a 10-point Obama lead to a 6-point Clinton edge — evidence of the still-unsettled nature of this contest, two weeks before Iowans gather and caucus."

Republican firm InsiderAdvantage has a new poll out showing John Edwards leading the Iowa caucus with 30%, followed by Hillary Clinton at 26% and Barack Obama with 24%. This is the first poll in at least a while to show Edwards in the lead. The poll also shows Edwards leading as the second choice for caucus-goers whose first choices would not reach the 15% viability mark.

Chris Bowers thinks the poll is an outlier, as it would project only 1/8 of caucus participants to be under the age of 45 — as opposed to the 2004 caucus, when 1/3 of caucus participants were under 45. It's an age cohort that would likely benefit Barack Obama.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee has a narrow lead of 28% against Mitt Romney's 25%, with Fred Thompson at 10%, John McCain with 9%, Ron Paul at 6%, and Rudy Giuliani with 5%.

Oh, man. One of Mike Huckabee's chief advisers has just attempted to clarify the Arkansas Governor's apparent equating of homosexuality and necrophilia.

In an interview with TPM Election Central, Joe Carter, Huckabee's director of research, argued that while Huckabee does think both fall in the category of "aberrant behavior," he's not arguing that they're the same and sees them as being at "opposite ends of the spectrum" of such behavior.

As first reported yesterday by David Corn at Mother Jones, Huckabee said the following in a 1998 book he co-wrote called Kids Who Kill:

It is now difficult to keep track of the vast array of publicly endorsed and institutionally supported aberrations—from homosexuality and pedophilia to sadomasochism and necrophilia.

When we asked Carter if Huckabee stood by this quote, he didn't disavow the comment. But he sought to clarify its meaning, denying our suggestion that the quote equated homosexuality and necrophilia.

"He's not equating homosexuality with necrophilia," Carter told us. "He's saying there's a range of aberrant behavior. He considers homosexuality aberrant, but that's at one end of the spectrum. Necrophilia is at the other end."

Carter added: "No way is he saying that homosexuality is like having sex with dead people. That's not it at all."

Asked how one measured what rated where on this spectrum of aberrant behavior, Carter said: "He was talking about aberrant sexual behavior. Sado masochism and necrophilia are on the further end of the spectrum."

Asked if this meant that Huckabee at least saw homosexuality and necrophilia as belonging to the same behavioral category, Carter said:

"That's like saying any sex is the same. Yes, he considers both aberrant, but no, he does not equate the two in any way."

Asked to elaborate further, Carter said: "He was describing behavior. He's not casting judgment on the people themselves. His point is, the culture is becoming more accepting of aberrant behaviors."

Asked about an even harsher description of homosexuality -- back in 1992 Huckabee described it as not just "aberrant," but an "unnatural, and sinful lifestyle" -- Carter said Huckabee stood by it.

"He's not going to change his stance on that," Carter said. "He considers homosexual behavior aberrant. But there are degrees of aberrant behavior. He's not saying they're equally as bad. There's a very big distinction there."

Just how drastic has Mike Huckabee's rise been? We've put together a sampling of polls from various primary states, and the effect is quite startling, not only in Iowa but across the country. Furthermore, the last two months have turned to be pretty rough for Rudy Giuliani, who was relying on his national popularity to see him through.

The trends, as can be seen in this graph, are very striking:

More analysis after the jump.

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SurveyUSA has a new round of polls out comparing the electability of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama across the individual swing states, and it's a mixed bag — but for now at least, the argument would appear to favor Hillary.

Hillary does better than Obama in Ohio and Minnesota, and it's not even close. Ohio, of course, was the pivotal swing state in 2004, with President's Bush's narrow victory there ensuring him its 20 electoral votes and the presidency. Meanwhile, Obama performs better than Hillary in Wisconsin and Iowa, and they're about tied in Missouri, with possibly a slight advantage to Hillary.

The full numbers are available after the jump.

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Oh, well. There goes that idea.

Former President George H.W. Bush has shot down his successor Bill Clinton’s idea of a diplomatic mission under a Hillary Clinton presidency that would send him and other notables abroad to assure other nations that “America is open for business and cooperation again."...

In a statement sent to CNN Tuesday afternoon, former President Bush’s chief of staff Jean Becker said that he "wholeheartedly supports the President of the United States, including his foreign policy. He has never discussed an ‘around-the-world-mission’ with either former President Bill Clinton or Sen. Clinton, nor does he think such a mission is warranted since he is proud of the role America continues to play around the world as the beacon of hope for freedom and democracy."

"President Bush is excited about several of the excellent Republican candidates running for president," the statement concludes, "and looks forward to discussing their candidacy once the Republican nominee is determined."

New Hillary ad in independent-heavy New Hampshire emphasizes her ability to unite with Republicans at a time when Obama is painting her as too polarizing to be effective:

This is kind of fun. The Huffington Post reported today that GOP Senator Gordon Smith defended Trent Lott's 2002 segregationist comments on the floor of the Senate during a send-off for the retiring Lott this morning:

"I was half way around the world when an event befell Trent Lott that shook me deeply," Smith said, referencing Lott's 2002 remarks in praise of Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond's 1948 run for the White House. "I was celebrating my re-election and on vacation. I watched over international news as his words were misconstrued, words which we had heard him utter many times in his big warm-heartedness trying to make one of our colleagues, Strom Thurmond, feel good at 100 years old. We knew what he meant. But the wolfpack of the press circled around him, sensed blood in the water, and the exigencies of politics caused a great injustice..."...

Smith said Lott should never have stepped down from his leadership position. "It was a wrong," Smith said of Lott's 2002 resignation, "but it was a wrong that was righted."

Hmmm -- Smith thinks Lott's words were misconstrued, that he was wronged, and that he should never have resigned?

Turns out that isn't what he said at the time. According an Associated Press article on December 17, 2002, Smith reacted as follows:

"However they were intended, Senator Lott's words were offensive and I was deeply dismayed to hear of them," Smith said in a brief statement. "His statement goes against everything I and the people of Oregon believe in. I look forward to working with my Republican colleagues to arrive at a decision that is best for the U.S. Senate and the country."

Three days later, according to the AP, Smith also said:

"I appreciate that Senator Lott has stepped down, it was a courageous thing for him to do..."Senator Lott's decision is best for the Senate and best for the country."

Classic Gordon Smith -- condemns Lott when the pressure is on, but completely exonerates him when no one's paying any attention.

The new Gallup poll finds that Barack Obama would be a stronger Democratic nominee than Hillary Clinton. Either of them could win when matched up against three top Republicans, but Obama has stronger margins and is above 50% support for himself in all three cases:

Clinton (D) 49%, Giuliani (R) 48%
Clinton (D) 53%, Huckabee (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 52%, Romney (R) 46%
Obama (D) 51%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Obama (D) 53%, Huckabee (R) 42%
Obama (D) 57%, Romney (R) 39%

In yet another sign that the Dem Primary has become a war over who can portray his or her opponent as the most negative of the bunch, Barack Obama has dropped a new health care mailer in New Hampshire decrying the fact that Hillary "attacked" him:

Adding to the hall of mirrors effect, the Hillary campaign sent this mailer out to reporters, claiming that it showed that Obama's mailer -- which claimed Hillary had attacked him -- was actually an attack on her. Got that?

The Hillary campaign also posted a fact-check of the mailer right here on The Fact Hub.

In an interview with the Associated Press, Ron Paul said that with the money he has raised he is now committed to staying in the race at least through Super Tuesday, no matter how the earlier primaries and caucuses turn out.

"Nobody would understand if I faded out before Feb. 5," Paul said. The date makes sense as a time for Paul's candidacy to end — as the Republican nominee will probably be decided by then, which means there won't be any more debates or opportunities for Paul to tweak the GOP establishment from within.

Fred Thompson is set to make a big push in Iowa, after running what has until now been a pretty lackluster campaign. Thompson began a 15-day tour of Iowa yesterday, which will go all the way through the caucuses and take a break only for Christmas.

For some context: Since September, when he officially declared his candidacy, Thompson had only spent a total of 14 days in Iowa — meaning that this tour will more than double his previous time on the ground here.

Two new SurveyUSA polls show that Rudy Giuliani's campaign strategy, built around February 5 and larger states, is on the edge of collapse.

In Florida, Rudy has a bare 29% plurality, with Mike Huckabee at 24% and Mitt Romney at 20%. In the last SurveyUSA poll two weeks ago, Rudy had 32%, with Huckabee at 18% and Romney with 15%.

In California, it's Rudy 28%, Huckabee 20%, Romney 16%, John McCain 14% and Fred Thompson 13%. In the December 3 poll, Rudy was at 32%, and his closest competitor, John McCain, had 18%.

If Rudy loses early contests, he could find his poll numbers diminish where he was doing well, as the early winners enjoy momentum from their wins.

On the Democratic side in California, Hillary Clinton has 49%, Barack Obama 30%, and John Edwards 14%.

Bill Clinton might have just done it again — saying something in the home stretch that will cause Hillary's campaign a whole lot of trouble.

"Well, the first thing she intends to do, because you can do this without passing a bill," Bill told reporters during a stop in South Carolina, "the first thing she intends to do is to send me and former President Bush and a number of other people around the world to tell them that America is open for business and cooperation again."

A president certainly can do that. But Bill is saying that George H. W. Bush would agree to participate in an assignment predicated on his son being publicly acknowledged as a failure — and all Bush 41 has to do now is say that he wouldn't. And beyond that, do Democratic activists really want to hear that someone named George Bush will be recruited to assist in Hillary's foreign policy?

This just in: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has yanked the Senate FISA renewal bill containing telecom immunity off the floor. That means it won't be debated until next year.

Senator Chris Dodd had planned to filibuster the bill this evening, and it didn't look as if the other Senators running for President -- Hillary, Obama, Biden -- would lend support for the filibuster in person. Now the question's moot -- until January.

Why did Reid pull the bill now? "Sen. Reid refused to jam this bill through the Senate because he believes it’s an important bill that deserves to be debated thoroughly," a Reid aide told us.

But Dodd aides expressed satisfaction, saying that the Connecticut Senator's filibuster threat was what stopped the bill for the time being. They vowed that he'd be back to fight it again in January.

Earlier today we asked whether the Senators running for President -- Hillary, Obama, Biden -- would be on hand to support Chris Dodd's planned filibuster of the Senate FISA bill containing telecom immunity. First out of the box with a statement is Obama:

"Senator Obama unequivocally opposes giving retroactive immunity to telecommunications companies and has cosponsored Senator Dodd's efforts to remove that provision from the FISA bill. Granting such immunity undermines the constitutional protections Americans trust the Congress to protect. Senator Obama supports a filibuster of this bill, and strongly urges others to do the same. It's not clear whether he can return for the vote, but under the Senate rules, the side trying to end a filibuster must produce 60 votes to cut off debate. Whether he is present for the vote for not, Senator Obama will not be among those voting to end the filibuster."

The issue here isn't just the 60 votes. Dodd is hoping that his fellow Senators will be on hand to ask questions during his filibuster, which under Senate rules would allow him to take breaks from talking and take a sip of water while keeping his filibuster alive. Obama seems to be saying he might do this. We'll see what happens, if anything.

Some new national numbers just in from USA Today/Gallup:

Hillary 45% (39% two weeks ago)

Obama 27% (24% two weeks ago)

Edwards 15% (unchanged from two weeks ago)

The rest are all in single digits. The numbers, which were taken over the weekend, suggest that Hillary has rebounded somewhat from the battering of bad news she's weathered, USA Today theorizes. Meanwhile, among the Republicans:

Rudy 27% (25% two weeks ago)

Huckabee 16% (unchanged from two weeks ago)

McCain 14% (15% two weeks ago)

Thompson 14% (15% two weeks ago

Mitt Romney has a new ad in Iowa depicting himself as tough on crime, and attacking Mike Huckabee's record. Although the ad doesn't get too specific — it doesn't mention the Dumond case — it does go after Huckabee's knack for commuting sentences:

"On crime," the announcer says, "the difference is judgment."

Mike Huckabee has a new ad in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, in which he tells the people how nice it is to take a break from this hectic campaign, come together, and celebrate the birth of Christ:

"I hope you and your family will have a magnificent Christmas season," Huckabee says. It's not only friendly, but it can also serve as a dog-whistle — red meat for the sort of conservative activists who bristle every time they hear the phrase, "Happy Holidays."

Barack Obama has a new ad in Iowa, in which he goes right after certain unnamed candidates' honesty — but in a nice, optimistic and hopeful tone:

"His 'candor is refreshing,'" the narrator says, quoting newspaper articles. "His 'scrupulous honesty' is 'far more presidential' than the dodging of other candidates."

Wasting no time, the Hillary campaign hits the airwaves in Iowa today with a new spot devoted entirely to her endorsement over the weekend by the Des Moines Register:

In light of Joe Lieberman's endorsement today of John McCain, it seemed worthwhile to recall that during his July 2006 debate with Ned Lamont, Lieberman said he wanted to help elect a Democratic President in 2008 ( via DailyKos):

Lieberman said of Lamont:

"I want Democrats to be back in the majority in Washington and elect a Democratic president in 2008. This man and his supporters will frustrate and defeat our hopes of doing that."

Another day, another Lieber-fib. Look, it's not surprising that Lieberman endorsed a Republican -- doing this sort of stuff is the only way he can get media attention. That's what this is about -- no more, no less.

On a conference call with reporters just moments ago, Chris Dodd's deputy campaign manager, Amos Hochstein, just vowed that the Senator will filibuster the Senate FISA bill containing telecom immunity later this afternoon for as long as he possibly can hold out.

"He will speak as long as he can," Hochstein said. "He will speak until he can no longer."

Asked how long he would be willing to stay away from Iowa, where he needs to be campaigining, Hochstein said: "As much as we'd love to be in Iowa, this is extremely important to the Senator."

The question now is, What will other Senators who said they'd support Dodd's filibuster do today? Senators Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden have all pledged to support it. They can do so under Senate rules by asking questions during Dodd's filibuster, giving him a chance to rest or to take a drink of water. Will they?

"Senators Clinton and Obama have indicated their support," Hochstein said. "I believe that they are in Iowa. I hope they are here to help Senator Dodd in his filibuster today. You should ask them."

Stay tuned.

In yet another sign of the threat Mike Huckabee's surge poses to Mitt Romney's Presidential hopes, the Romney campaign has just dropped a new mailer hitting Huckabee's tax record and comparing him to -- gasp! -- Bill Clinton. The piece was forwarded to us by a GOP operative:

Congressman Steve King (R-IA), a right winger who has built up a strong record opposing illegal immigration, has endorsed Mitt Romney*.

The endorsement could potentially help Romney as he tries to convince Iowans that Mike Huckabee is weak on the immigration issue.

*Update: D'oh! Despite initial initial reports that he was going for Romney, King has actually endorsed Fred Thompson. King's endorsement is a good get with conservative activists here, so he may able to give Thompson a boost — but on the other hand, it could end up further dividing the opposition against Huckabee.

A new Chicago Tribune poll in Illinois shows that Rudy Giuliani's February 5 strategy could be hitting a serious wall. Rudy just manages to lead the GOP field with 23%, statistically in a dead heat with Mike Huckabee's 21%. Mitt Romney comes in third with 14%, with John McCain at 12% and Fred Thompson at 11%.

If Rudy is only barely ahead in a big February 5 state, how can he expect to do well after multiple losses in the early states?

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama easily leads in his home state with 50% support, followed by Hillary Clinton at 25%, and John Edwards with 7%.

In a sign that his campaign in New Hampshire could be flagging, Rudy Giuliani has been significantly scaling back his ad buys in the state. Records show that numerous ad buys in the Boston TV stations have either been cut by more than half, or cancelled entirely.

The campaign has kept up its buys in the much cheaper WMUR in Manchester, where Rudy has a strong base of support thanks in part to the mayor's endorsement — so Rudy might be going trying for a decent second or third through a strong, concentrated showing there. And the campaign is shifting its resources to Florida, where Rudy is also sinking fast.

Barack Obama has picked up a big endorsement in Iowa today, with the support of freshman Congressman Dave Loebsack. A former college professor, Loebsack defeated a 30-year incumbent in 2006 — after winning the nomination as a write-in candidate when no other Democrat had filed.

Within the Iowa delegation, each of the top three candidates can claim an endorsement — Leonard Boswell is for Hillary Clinton, and Bruce Braley is supporting John Edwards. While Sen. Tom Harkin is officially neutral, his wife is for Hillary.

Ron Paul's supporters were able to break their previous one-day record yesterday, raising over $6 million in one day. Yesterday's "moneybomb" fundraiser, held in honor of the Boston Tea Party, outdid their previous Guy Fawkes Day fundraiser by nearly half. The number roughly ties Barack Obama's personal best of $6 million in one day, and is just barely behind Hillary Clinton's $6.2 million record — and way outpaces the rest of the GOP field.

These are not pledges, or lists of cash donations to be delivered later — they are actual credit card receipts, according to the official campaign. And all of this means that Paul will have the money to spread his message in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and possibly even elsewhere, and potentially cause some real havoc for the GOP with his anti-war platform.

Today's the day, when Democrat-turned-"Independent Democrat" Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Dem nominee for vice president, will endorse Republican presidential candidate John McCain in New Hampshire.

"When others were silent, and it was thought politically unpopular, John had the courage and common sense to sound the alarm about the mistakes we were making in Iraq and to call for more troops and a new strategy there," Lieberman will say, according to prepared remarks. "And when others waivered (sic), when others wanted to retreat from the field of battle, John had the courage and the common sense to stand against the tide of public opinion and support the surge in Iraq, where we are at last winning."

Lieberman's full prepared speech is available after the jump.

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John Edwards is set to pick up a major endorsement in Iowa tomorrow, with the support of Iowa First Lady Mari Culver. It'll be a huge help for Edwards to have Culver on the campaign trail over the next couple weeks.

Gov. Chet Culver is staying officially neutral, but his wife's endorsement could be taken as a not-too-subtle hint of who he's with, much as Tom Vilsack stayed neutral in 2004 while his wife endorsed John Kerry, and New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch's wife is backing Hillary Clinton.

Oh boy. Bill Kristol is reporting that Joe Lieberman — whose alienation from the Democratic Party over Iraq has become more and more apparent, even as he continues to caucus as a Dem — will endorse Republican John McCain for president. The two will reportedly appear at a press conference tomorrow in New Hampshire, where McCain needs the support of independents.

It sure is a big change for a guy who was the Democratic nominee for vice president in 2000, isn't it? It also begs another question: If McCain ends up not being the GOP nominee, will Lieberman back the Democrat or the Republican?

Update: The Politico has confirmed the story.

Mitt Romney has found a new angle for attacking Mike Huckabee in Iowa — going after Huckabee's Foreign Affairs essay, in which Huck rejected large portions of the neoconservative program and even said, "The Bush administration's arrogant bunker mentality has been counterproductive at home and abroad."

"I can't believe he'd say that. I'm afraid he's running from the wrong party," Romney told an Iowa crowd. "I had to look again — did this come from Barack Obama or from Hillary Clinton? Did it come from John Edwards? No, it was Governor Huckabee."

Romney then pledged his fealty to the Bush foreign policy agenda: "I'm the last person to say that this administration is subject to an arrogant, bunker mentality that is counterproductive here and abroad. The truth of the matter is this president has kept us safe these past six years and that has not been easy to do."

Ron Paul's supporters are holding another one-day mega-fundraiser today, hoping to top the $4 million they raised on November 5. Their current tally: Over $2.7 million.

Remember, the more money Paul gets, the more he can put into key primary states like New Hampshire and South Carolina — creating the opportunity to humiliate some top-tier Republican candidates by placing ahead of them with his anti-war platform.