Mike Huckabee has responded to reports of his stances on AIDS in 1992 — that he was for quarantining patients, opposed new federal money for research, and called homosexuality "an aberrant, unnatural, and sinful lifestyle, and we now know it can pose a dangerous public health risk." Huckabee now claims that back in 1992, people still did not completely know how HIV/AIDS was spread.

"But looking back almost 20 years, my concern was the uncertain risk to the general population – if we got it wrong, many people would die needlessly," Huckabee said. "My concern was safety first, political correctness last."

Huckabee now also supports greater federal funding for HIV research. His full statement is available after the jump.

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John McCain has a new ad up in New Hampshire — where he appears to be making something of a last stand after tanking in Iowa — featuring New England celebrity Curt Schilling:

"I've seen some tough competitors in my time," Schilling says. "But none tougher that John McCain. He's a winner."

During a campaign stop in Iowa yesterday, Fred Thompson dismissed the National Intelligence Estimate's findings that Iran is no longer developing nuclear weapons — a further sign that the war hawks just aren't going to give up on their Iran narrative.

"They're still enriching uranium, and I'm very suspicious of the thing," Thompson said, then going even further and suggesting that the evidence of Iran having ceased to develop nuclear weapons was itself planted by the Iranian regime. "I wouldn't be surprised if some of that info wasn't put out by (the Iranian government) so they can say 'look, there's no need to mess with us now.'"

Here's a fun quote that Mike Huckabee will now have to answer for on the campaign trail — the sort of thing that would undermine his image as a man of compassion. The Associates Press reports that back in 1992, Huckabee wanted to have AIDS patients quarantined.

"It is difficult to understand the public policy towards AIDS," Huckabee wrote in an AP questionnaire, as a candidate that year for the U.S. Senate. "It is the first time in the history of civilization in which the carriers of a genuine plague have not been isolated from the general population, and in which this deadly disease for which there is no cure is being treated as a civil rights issue instead of the true health crisis it represents."

Huckabee also opposed additional federal spending for AIDS research, and ridiculed the celebrity activists who pushed for it. "In light of the extraordinary funds already being given for AIDS research, it does not seem that additional federal spending can be justified," he wrote. "An alternative would be to request that multimillionaire celebrities, such as Elizabeth Taylor [,] Madonna and others who are pushing for more AIDS funding be encouraged to give out of their own personal treasuries increased amounts for AIDS research."

Former basketball coach Dick Versace, who had recruited by the Democrats to run for the seat of retiring Congressman Ray LaHood (R-IL), has dropped out of the race, citing "unforeseen personal circumstances."

No other Democrats had filed for the seat, leaving the Dems without a candidate after the filing deadline. Under state law, the party will be able to name a new candidate — but this does leave them without their star recruit in a GOP-leaning seat, increasing the GOP's likelihood of retaining it.

Yet another House Republican is headed for the exits. Congressman Jim McCrery (R-LA), who helped shepherd the Bush tax cuts through the House in 2001, announced today that he is retiring after ten terms.

In his statement, McCrery acknowledged the GOP's minority status affected his decision — had they retained the majority, he would have become chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee. "The chairmanship would have allowed me to play a leading role in addressing some of the biggest long-term problems facing our country," McCrery said.

The district is a Republican safe seat, going to President Bush with 59% of the vote in 2004, so the GOP will likely retain it unless the Dems can garner a lot of ticket splitting.

Fred Thompson has a great piece of literature in Iowa attacking Mike Huckabee, comparing him to another famous Arkansan. The mailer splices pictures of Huckabee together with none other than Bill Clinton, and warns Iowans, "Mike Huckabee talks like a Republican but taxes like a Democrat.

Jonathan Martin has a scan of the piece. It definitely shows two things: a) That Huckabee is the man ahead in Iowa now, and thus is the main target of everyone else's attacks, and b) that Fred Thompson has failed to catch on with voters by his own positives, and has to go negative on the other candidates.

In a surprise announcement today, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez dropped out of the New Mexico Senate race, essentially clearing the Democratic field for Congressman Tom Udall. Chávez had previously indicated that he would wage a tough primary race, running to the right of Udall, but in his announcement showed that he'd clearly changed his mind. The announcement makes the campaign much easier for Udall, who is the favorite in polling for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Pete Domenici.

"While I deeply appreciate all the support I have received, it has become very clear to me that Democrats should not be divided in the upcoming election," Chavez said. "A hotly contested primary, as this one certainly would be, would likely weaken the Democratic nominee and place the general election in jeopardy."

Earlier today we noted that Barack Obama's planned New Hampshire event with Oprah this weekend had hit a potential snag: The stadium that the Obama campaign had chosen for the gathering was non-union.

Now, however, it looks as the New Hampshire AFL-CIO, which has been trying to gain a foothold at the stadium, has reached an agreement with the Obama camp not to mar the festivities. "There will not be a picket," the union's President, Mark MacKenzie, said in a statement. He added that "a satisfactory agreement" had been reached after negotiations with the Obama campaign, though it's as yet unclear what that agreement was.

So Oprah Weekend will proceed as planned.

The new Iowa poll from Newsweek gives Mike Huckabee his best showing yet — and Mitt Romney his worst in quite a long time. Huckabee has an astonishing 39% support in the poll, up from only 6% back in late September. As for Romney, he has only 17% support, less than half of Huckabee's and down from his 25% in the September poll. Everyone else is in bad shape, too: Thompson 10%, Giuliani 9%, and McCain 6%.

Even worse for Romney is that 16% openly said they were less likely to vote for him because he is a Mormon — which makes one wonder just how many are thinking the same thing but won't admit it.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead heat, with 30% for Hillary and 29% for Obama. Edwards is in third with 21%. Among those most likely to participate, Obama leads with 35% to Hillary's 29%, with Edwards way behind at 18%. Election Central earlier today obtained an Edwards campaign internal poll, and they cast themselves in a much better light.

John Edwards' campaign pollster has produced an internal poll that he claims shows that Edwards is locked with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a statistical three-way tie for first place in Iowa.

The info about the poll is contained in a polling memo produced by Edwards' polling firm, Global Strategy Group, and sent to Edwards Iowa state director Jennifer O'Malley Dillon. The memo was obtained by Election Central and its veracity was confirmed by the Edwards campaign.

The memo claims that the poll was completed Wednesday night, finding that Hillary has 27% of likely caucus goers, Edwards has 24%, and Obama has 22%. "Support for the top three candidates is so close that it is impossible to distinguish among them with the commonly accepted level of statistical confidence," the memo says.

Make of this what you will. You can read a PDF of the full polling memo right here in our TPM Document collection, and the full text of it is after the jump.

Late Update: One of the problems with reading too much into a single internal poll, obviously, is that you don't know what all the campaign's other internal polls show.

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Barack Obama's big New Hampshire rally with Oprah this weekend has hit a potential snag: The stadium the campaign selected for the event is non-union.

The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that the rally is set to happen regardless, and the Obama campaign and the local union that's been trying to gain a foothold at the site are in last-minute negotiations to see if there's a way for the show to go on without a picket. Obama may make a strong pro-labor statement at the event, for instance.

The Club For Growth has a new ad up attacking Mike Huckabee's record on taxes when he was governor of Arkansas:

The ad will run in Iowa and South Carolina, as well as nationwide on Fox News. It's a sign that the economic conservatives are taking Huckabee's populist threat very seriously, and as such are ready to do everything they can to convince conservative voters that he isn't an acceptable option.

There's some good cheer in the Edwards camp today -- he's scored the endorsement of the first Iowa newspaper that isn't for students.

"Edwards isn’t afraid to speak out against the political machine that has corrupted our system for years and has pledged as a candidate to refuse contributions from Washington lobbyists – a personal decision that is an important first step towards true campaign finance reform," says today's Valley News of Shenandoah, Iowa.

"In an unusually strong field of contenders, Edwards is by far the least polarizing of the other top tier candidates and will clearly provide Democrats the best chance of defeating the Republicans next November." Read the endorsement here.

Late Update: I should have specified that the Edwards campaign is claiming that this is the first endorsement from a daily non-college Iowa newspaper. The weekly Vinton Eagle endorsed Hillary earlier this week.

The antiwar group VoteVets.org has become the first group to come out and condemn GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell over our report that he belittled the deaths of professional soldiers in a meeting with constituents this week.

"I would say that Mitch McConnell owes every member of our service and the families of the fallen an apology, but no apology from him can take back the venom he has spewed at our troops," a VoteVets.org senior advisor, Retired Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, said in a statement.

"For anyone to believe that casualties of war are somehow more acceptable because they were not draftees is disgusting," continued Horne, who served in Iraq with the Marines and lives in McConnell's home state of Kentucky. "For the Republican leader in the United States Senate to say that is beyond repugnant."

If Harry Reid said something like this it would be news for days and days. So it'll be interesting to see if this goes anywhere.

Check this out, from the Associated Press:

SANTA FE, N.M.—Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Richardson has a Christmas wish for some of the state government employees in his administration: pack your bags and head to Iowa.

The two-term governor is asking governmental appointees and other state employees to volunteer to help his campaign by traveling to Iowa before the Jan. 3 leadoff presidential contest...

Last month, the governor and his presidential campaign manager, Dave Contarino, met with a group of state workers and other supporters at a Santa Fe hotel to appeal for campaign volunteers and update them on how Richardson is faring.

State employees were invited to the lunch hour meeting by the campaign with messages sent to private e-mail accounts and, in some cases, private cell phones.

Seems a bit odd to us. The story specifies that the state employees working for Richardson are taking unpaid leave. But still, a governor is asking state employees -- his employees -- to help his political campaign. Not easy to say no to your boss, obviously. This permissible under New Mexico law? What about the ethics here? Readers?

Mitt Romney has a new TV ad in Iowa, stressing to conservative voters how he's stood with them on issues like the right to life, traditional marriage, and upholding the English language — opposition to which is derided by the announcer as "politically correct."

Expect Romney to be pushing the social conservative messages in the home stretch, as he seeks to win over Iowa evangelicals who might be uncomfortable with his religion by employing much the same tactic as he did in yesterday's speech — stressing that they share a common foundation of conservative values.

A new American Research Group poll of Nevada finds Hillary Clinton with a wide lead over the Democratic competition here. Meanwhile, the Republican race could be turning into a dogfight between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee — so if Huckabee were to win Iowa, he might get a decent momentum bump here, too:

Democrats:
Clinton 45%
Obama 18%
Edwards 14%

Republicans:
Romney 29%
Huckabee 23%
Giuliani 17%
McCain 7%
Thompson 5%

Meanwhile, Bill Richardson is at a mere 2% support. Obviously, his hopes of winning Latino votes aren't panning out.

With only weeks to go before the voting begins, the Hillary camp is giving a big push to the argument that she's the most experienced candidate, releasing a letter attesting to her foreign policy depth that's signed by nearly three dozen former ambassadors that served when the Clintons were in the White House.

What's interesting about the letter is the fact that it's highlighting her time as First Lady in making the case for her foreign policy experience. This is, of course, a notion that Barack Obama mocked. Key quote:

"As diplomats and former Ambassadors who represented the
United States to the rest of the world, we were personal witnesses to
the important role Hillary Clinton played as First Lady in promoting
American interests and values abroad," the letter says.

"Senator Clinton's diplomatic accomplishments as First Lady and her achievements in the Senate, including her service on the Senate Armed Services Committee, make her uniquely qualified to lead our nation at this time of great challenge."

Full letter and signatories after the jump.

Late Update: A commenter below writes:

Has there been any assessment of how many of these ambassadors were career foreign service professionals vs. how many were political appointees?

Obviously those who were appointed as ambassador by President Clinton based on their political ties (campaign workers, policy advisors, fundraisers) might be perceived as a less than totally objective source on the subject.

Valid points. My interest in this is mainly that it's obviously intended at least partly as push-back against Obama's mockery of the notion that her time as First Lady counts as relevant experience.

Read more »

Uh oh -- looks like GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell has got a problem on his hands. Check out what he said about the death of American troops in Iraq in a meeting with constituents this week, according to Kentucky's Grayson County News-Gazette:

“Unfortunately, most of our friends on the other isle are having a hard time admitting things are getting better; some days I almost think the critics of this war don't want us to win. Nobody is happy about losing lives but remember these are not draftees, these are full-time professional soldiers."

It's hard to read this as anything but belittling the importance of the deaths of troops because they're "professional soldiers." What McConnell is basically saying here is, "hey, they signed up for this."

Maybe someone should get clarification from McConnell on this.

A spokesman for the Mitt Romney campaign is thus far refusing to say whether Romney sees any positive role in America for atheists and other non-believers, after Election Central inquired about the topic yesterday

It's a sign that Romney may be seeking to submerge evangelical distaste for Mormonism by uniting the two groups together in a wider culture war. Romney's speech has come under some criticism, even from conservatives like David Brooks and Ramesh Ponnuru, for positively mentioning many prominent religions but failing to include anything positive about atheists and agnostics.

Indeed, the only mentions of non-believers were very much negative. "It is as if they're intent on establishing a new religion in America – the religion of secularism. They're wrong," Romney said, being met by applause from the audience.

The Lexington Herald-Leader reports that Kentucky state Auditor Crit Luallen, who was being recruited by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, is telling party leaders that she has decided not to challenge Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) next year. Additionally, outgoing state Attorney General Greg Stumbo, who was exploring a campaign, is now expressing a desire to return to the state legislature instead.

The news leaves Democrats without a top flight challenger to put McConnell on the defensive. Louisville attorney Andrew Horne, an Iraq veteran who lost the Democratic primary in Kentucky's Third Congressional District to now-Rep. John Yarmuth in 2006, says that he will consider running if Luallen makes her decision final.

Late Update: Luallen issued a statement today saying that she has "no plans" to enter the race.

The Des Moines Register gathered some reactions among Iowa evangelicals to Mitt Romney's speech yesterday — and not surprisingly, those who were for Romney gave it a good review, and anti-Mormon evangelicals didn't change their minds about him. As such, we'll have to wait and see if it really had any impact at all among the final caucus participants, if it can be measured at all.

"He was doing the Potomac two-step around the issues that concern many evangelicals," said Rev. Frank Cook of Des Moines, who then admitted that evangelical opposition to Romney has little or nothing to do with his stances on the issues, but is largely about his religion. "Most evangelicals, including myself and my church, agree with Governor Romney's stand on most moral issues in our country. Our objection with his candidacy is not so much with his public stance as it is with how the Mormon faith has tried to disguise the tenets of their faith."

A new AP/Ipsos poll finds that Mike Huckabee has jumped to second place nationally among Republicans. Rudy Giuliani was first with a 26% plurality, followed by Huckabee at 18% — an eight-point improvement from a month ago. John McCain had 13%, Mitt Romney 12%, and Fred Thompson 11%.

The poll was conducted from December 3-5 — relatively recent, but before Huckabee really started feeling the heat over the Dumond case.

This news really ought to puncture the "Support The Troops" line from the war hawks. A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll finds that the opinions of military families regarding Iraq are not that much different from the country as a whole.

Among those families with troops in Iraq or Afghanistan, 60% say the war in Iraq was not worth the cost, the same number as the general population. And even worse for the administration, 27% of those same respondents said the troops should be brought home immediately, and 42% said they should be brought home within the next year — numbers that are actually slightly higher than among the general population, though the difference does appear to be statistically significant.

Democrats can breathe a sigh of relief over California's electoral votes. The Republican-backed initiative to split the state's votes by Congressional district will not be on the June ballot, its backers have admitted, effectively sinking GOP hopes of grabbing the presidency in California.

If the initiative had passed in the low-turnout June primary, Republicans would have been able to get an estimated 20 electoral votes — as good as winning Ohio. Now its only hope is to be on the November ballot, in which heavier turnout would make it much more likely to be defeated.

Looking to stake out a firm position against a long-term Iraq commitment, with only weeks to go before the early caucuses and primaries, Hillary Clinton rolled out new legislation today designed to challenge the White House's authority on Iraq.

The proposal deals with "status of forces agreements" that the Bush Administration has been making with the Iraqi government that would create a long-term American commitment. Hillary's legislation would deny funding for any commitments made under a SOFA, and would hold that they do not carry the force of law — as opposed to treaties, which are approved by Congress and are legally binding.

The full text of Hillary's Senate office press release is available after the jump.

Here's a highlight reel of Mitt Romney's speech this morning, in which he stood by both his Mormon religion and personal independence, and insisted that America is and should be a place that is tolerant of religious differences — while at the same time declaring that religion itself must have a key role in our public life, a message sure to please many conservative evangelicals:

Here's a fun video clip just making its way around YouTube — Mike Huckabee at the Liberty University convocation last week, attributing his rise in the polls to divine power, and the intercessionary prayers of his supporters:

In an interview this morning on MSNBC's Morning Joe, Mike Huckabee lashed out repeatedly at The Huffington Post in response to the Web site's explosive story yesterday alleging that Huck had pushed for parole for a serial rapist despite the fact that the rapist's victims had pleaded with the former Arkansas Governor not to.

The decision by Huckabee to attack HuffPo and to blame the left for his travails -- a reliable and time-tested tactic in GOP primaries -- suggests that Huck and his advisers have gone into heavy damage control mode at a moment when the story shows no signs of abating. Take a look:

Transcript:

Let's first of all look at the source. The Huffington Post, one of the most left-wing blogs in the blogosphere, There are factual errors in what they have printed. Some of it is outrageously incorrect...

The only thing that I think is just despicable is to use [the rape victims' families'] grief and pain as a political weapon. What a sad state of affairs it is in this country when we exploit people's pain for political purposes. That's what's happening...The Huffington Post just doesn't want to give the whole story of what's going on...

This agenda of the Huffington Post is outrageously misleading -- let's go beyond -- it's just downright false.

Huckabee only contested a single fact in the original HuffPo story -- he claimed he hadn't ignored a letter he'd received from a rape victim pleading with him not to push for parole for Wayne Dumond. He didn't explain how this denial squared with his decision to push for parole with Dumond, however. (More on this soon.)

He also accused HuffPo of taking a former Huck aide's quotes out of context in a second story the Web site posted yesterday. The story reported that the aide recalled Huckabee advocating for parole for Dumond at a private parole board meeting in 1996.

We hear that The Huffington Post is preparing a major response to Huckabee's attacks for this afternoon.

Stay tuned.

A new Rasmussen poll shows a dramatic surge for Mike Huckabee in South Carolina. The poll, conducted before the Wayne Dumond story gained traction in the media, has Huckabee at 25%, with Romney and Thompson tied at 18%. That's a big jump from last month, when Thompson and Romney led the field at 21% each, and Huckabee registered in fourth place at 12%, behind Giuliani's 13%.

The poll comes as further evidence of a Huckabee bounce, with the former Governor claiming the lead in some recent Iowa polls, and is even holding a slight lead in Rasmussen's latest national polls.

On the Democratic side, Hillary edges Obama by a 36%-34% margin, down from the 43%-33% lead she held in November, giving yet another sign of a tightening race in the early primary states.

Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) was elected chairman of the Senate Republican Conference this morning, defeating the relatively more conservative Richard Burr of North Carolina. Alexander ran for whip last year, but lost to Trent Lott by one vote.

The leadership election was called after Lott's surprise resignation announcement, and current conference chairman Jon Kyl's (AZ) unopposed run for the whip spot.

Congressman Tom Lantos (D-CA) might be on the verge of facing a really tough primary challenge. Former state Sen. Jackie Speier claims she has an internal poll that shows her beating Lantos in the primary by a 57%-27% margin. Speier has some name recognition built up after she ran for Lt. Governor in 2006, narrowly losing the Democratic primary, but she has not yet officially announced a campaign against Lantos.

Speier's pollster also told Roll Call that her poll did not include any push questions, but simply asked, "Who would you most likely support in the Democratic party primary for United States Congress, if the choice was..." and then the two candidates' names given in rotation.

Oprah Winfrey sure is a draw in South Carolina. After free tickets sold out for her event this weekend with Barack Obama at a venue seating 18,000, they've moved it to a football stadium that seats 80,000.

The rally is in three days, so we'll see how many seats the Obama campaign can fill in that time, although they've already been inviting people to sign up for a waiting list. Even if the place gets only half-filled, that would still mean 40,000 people showing up to see Oprah Winfrey — plus her favored candidate for president.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is standing by his earlier prediction that Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucus, albeit with Mike Huckabee a close second — and he also thinks Barack Obama will triumph on the Democratic side.

In an interview with the Des Moines Register, he also said he thinks Hillary Clinton could possibly come in third. "I think Edwards is going to come out of Iowa looking better than he does nationally, and it may even help him nationally," Grassley said — although he still predicts that Hillary will be the Dem nominee.

On a Hillary campaign conference call yesterday with reporters, Ret. Gen. Wes Clark put the blame on Barack Obama for the current mud-slinging within the Democratic primaries.

"I was at the debate in Philadelphia," said Clark. "That's where it really started, and I think it started with Barack advertising that he was going to go on the offensive and start attacking.

Mitt Romney is scheduled to give his long-awaited "JFK Speech" today at 10:30 a.m. ET, from the George H. W. Bush library at Texas A&M. The big question is whether he'll be able to assuage doubts among conservative evangelicals about his Mormon religion — some of whom might be drawn to the former Baptist minister in the race, Mike Huckabee.

Romney will acknowledge the separation of church and state in the speech, according to prepared excerpts provided to Election Central. But he will also give a conservative-friendly message that religion itself should be integral to politics, and that Mormonism shares "a common creed of moral convictions" with other sects. He will also declare, "Our greatness would not long endure without judges who respect the foundation of faith upon which our constitution rests."

More excerpts are available after the jump.

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Here's a first look at a new Barack Obama ad that just went up in Iowa. The 60-second spot, which features footage of Obama's speech at the Jefferson Jackson Dinner, is in keeping with the Obama campaign message that he's uniquely positioned in various ways to be a "game changer" when it comes to American foreign and domestic policy:

The ad never mentions Hillary, but it features footage of him again making the case here that she is too encumbered with baggage to be the game-changer he is. Obama closes the ad with: "I don't wanna spend the next year or the next four years refighting the same fights that we had in the 1990s. I don't wanna pit red America against blue America. I want to be the President...of the United States of America."

Mike Huckabee appeared on CNN today to talk about the Wayne Dumond story. Huckabee insisted that he had no part in paroling Dumond — indeed, from his standpoint it sounds like the only part he had in the case was to deny commutation. Huckabee also said the the allegations from former parole board members that he had worked to influence them were false and politically motivated:

Interestingly, Huckabee was not asked about the latest development in the Dumond controversy: The report in the Huffington Post featuring the letters that Dumond's victims had written to Huckabee in the 1990's, urging that Dumond not be released.

The new Iowa poll from Republican firm Strategic Vision shows Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee leading their respective caucuses:

Democrats:
Obama 32%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 25%

Republicans:
Huckabee 27%
Romney 24%
Giuliani 13%
Thompson 11%

The last Strategic Vision poll from a week ago had Obama and Hillary tied at 29% each, and Romney with a 26%-24% lead over Huckabee.

The new Washington Post/ABC News poll released moments ago finds that Hillary is hanging on to a six point lead in New Hampshire -- a margin that the pollsters say puts Obama within "striking distance" of her, though they also conclude that her support has solidified in key ways:

Clinton: 35%

Obama: 29%

Edwards: 17%

This seems to be Obama's best showing yet against Hillary in New Hampshire. And other findings in the poll suggest that her rivals' attacks may be continuing to work, with far more saying that she doesn't say what she truly thinks than say the same of her competitors.

At the same time, however, the poll finds that more Hillary supporters are definitely sticking with their candidate, and also that fewer of those who may change their minds support her, suggesting more solid support for her than for Obama, the pollsters argue.

Late Update: The Washington Post's write up of this is grimmer for Hillary, observing that she "holds only a single-digit lead" over Obama in a state "her campaign has viewed as a potential firewall should she stumble in the Iowa caucuses."

So the Iowa county chair who was volunteering for Hillary and sent the Obama Muslim smear email has been identified: She's one Judy Rose.

Judy Rose -- or, at least, someone with the same name -- is, or was, one of the members of the 250 Iowa women who are leading Team Hillary in that state.

Late Update: Taylor Marsh has an interesting interview with Iowa Independent editor Chase Martyn, who defends the Hillary campaign:

Obama has been the subject of a lot of different types of emails. But I should also say though that on a daily basis I get far worse emails accusing Hillary Clinton...the things I get told about Hillary Clinton on a daily basis are just so much worse.

The Democratic National Committee has just won a legal victory against the rogue Florida primary.

Chief U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle threw out a lawsuit from the Florida party and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson (D), ruling that the DNC has the right to determine their primary schedule and therefore can strip the January 29 Florida primary of all its delegates.

A new Marist poll in New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney continuing to enjoy wide leads:

Democrats:
Clinton 37%
Obama 23%
Edwards 18%

Republicans:
Romney 29%
McCain 17%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 11%

A month ago, Marist had Rudy in a solid second place at 22%, with McCain at 13% and Huckabee at 7%, plus Romney at 33%. On the Democratic side, Hillary has gained one point and Obama has lost two — neither change significant — while Edwards has gained four points.

We've just obtained a copy of the Obama Muslim smear email -- smear-mail? -- that the Iowa county chair volunteering for Hillary sent out. Key quotes:

"Obama's parents met at the University of Hawaii . When Obama was two years old, his parents divorced. His father returned to Kenya . His mother then married Lolo Soetoro, a RADICAL Muslim from Indonesia . When Obama was 6 years old, the family relocated to Indonesia . Obama attended a MUSLIM school in Jakarta."

And:

"Since it is politically expedient to be a CHRISTIAN when seeking major public office in the United States , Barack Hussein Obama has joined the United Church of Christ in an attempt to downplay his Muslim background."

Ben Smith notes that one of the people on the chain of this email is a Clinton staffer named Ryan Callanan, who received the email on November 21. It's unclear what level Callanan occupies or what exactly this means.

Late Update: It turns out that Callanan, the Clinton staffer who was on the email chain, also condemned the smear email:

I’ve gotten this forward before. It’s racist and ignorant. I can’t believe that people believe this stuff.

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Christopher Hayes of The Nation has identified the guy who received the Obama "madrassa" smear email from a Hillary-supporting county chair in Iowa: He's Gary Hart of Jones County, Iowa.

I just got off the phone with Hart, and he confirmed receiving the email. He said he'd heard from the Hillary campaign about it and as a result wouldn't reveal who the county chair was who sent it to him.

"The Clinton campaign has been in touch with me, and I'm satisfied with their response," he told me.

Asked whether he would share the email and why he wouldn't identify the sender, he hung up.

Hillary Clinton's new ad in Iowa features Ret. General Wes Clark, dismissing the current attacks against Hillary. "That's politics," Clark says. "What this country needs is leadership." Clark then explains how Hillary has what it takes to end the war in Iraq and avert war with Iran — obviously a sticking point with Dem activists, in light of her 2002 vote to authorize the Iraq War, and her recent vote for Kyl-Lieberman:

A day after the Hillary campaign hit the Obama camp for bullying voters in nasty phone calls, the Hillary crew has just acknowledged that an Iowa county chair volunteering for the campaign passed along the now-notorious email that smears Obama as a Muslim by repeating the false claim that he attended a madrassa as a child.

The Hillary campaign confirms that they are asking the county chair to step down from the campaign.

The charge was made by a Daily Kos diarist who identified himself as planning to "caucus" for Chris Dodd, suggesting that this happened in Iowa. In his diary he reported receiving the email:

Over the past week or so, I have received two of the most hateful hit pieces on Obama parroting right wing talking points. One was forwarded to me from a Clinton county chair. The other was from a person who claimed to be a former Obama supporter, but a little work with Google revealed she had been posting pro-Clinton comments for several months on websites covering the campaign.

They both repeat the Obama/Osama crap, andand the "madrassa" charges. And there is the conclusion that Obama is a mole whose intention is to make a Muslim revolution in the US.

In the comments section to the post, Hillary Internet guru Peter Daou passes along a statement from a top official at the Hillary campaign acknowledging that the email had in fact been sent by the Clinton county chair:

Since seeing your post...we investigated this and below is a response from Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle:

"There is no place in our campaign, or any campaign, for this kind of politics. A volunteer county coordinator made the mistake of forwarding an outrageous and offensive chain e-mail. This was wholly unauthorized and we were totally unaware of it. Let me be clear: No one should be engaging in this. We are asking this volunteer county coordinator to step down and are making it clear to every person involved in our campaign that this will not be tolerated."

The Hillary campaign confirmed to me that the statement is genuine.

The identity of the "Clinton county chair" -- or, as the Hillary camp prefers it, "volunteer county coordinator" -- is not yet known.

More soon.

Late Update: The guy who received the smear email speaks.

Late Late Update: We've just obtained a copy of the e-mail.

Still Later Update: The sender of the email is identified.

With the National Republican Congressional Committee all but broke — at the end of October, the organization had a net debt of $1 million — the fact that they're dropping cash for this new ad in the special election for Ohio's strongly conservative Fifth District indicates they're clearly worried about an upset:

Kos adds: "What's particularly hilarious is that the 'problems' the ad declares Americans face are all problems created by the Bush administration and the Bush Republicans who have run Congress most of the last eight years."

A new round of Zogby polls in Iowa and New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney in statistical dead heats with their main rivals in Iowa, but with significant leads in New Hampshire.

Hillary does have has some reason for concern in New Hampshire, though — her support has gone from 38% in New Hampshire back in late September, down to 32% now.

The numbers are available after the jump.

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The Huffington Post has just gotten a blockbuster scoop: It reports that as governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee pushed for the early release of a convicted rapist, despite the fact that he was repeatedly warned by numerous victims of the rapist that he would likely strike again. The new revelations directly contradict Huckabee's public version of events.

The new revelations could put the brakes on what has been a startlingly swift rise in the polls for Huckabee. Multiple surveys show him ahead of Mitt Romney in Iowa, and one poll puts him in second place among Republicans nationwide.

Read more »

John Edwards has a new ad up in New Hampshire, warning against replacing corporate Republicans with corporate Democrats — a line he's frequently used against Hillary Clinton when he attacks her for accepting donations from lobbyists. "And we can say as long as we get Democrats in, everything's gonna be okay," Edwards warns. "It's a lie. It is not the truth."

Wow, this new Rudy ad in New Hampshire gives new meaning to the phrase "reflected glory." The whole ad consists of Rudy offering an extended paean to Ronald Reagan and his handling of the Iranian hostage crisis upon taking office in 1980. "The best way you deal with dictators, the best way you deal with tyrants and terrorists, you stand up to them," Rudy concludes.

Oddly, Rudy says nothing that tells us why we're supposed to see Rudy as the terror-warrior heir to Reagan -- it's just something that goes without saying.

Yesterday, Mitt Romney's campaign provided a lesson in why the phrase "damage control" has the word "damage" in it. Romney finally got around to firing the landscaping company that was hiring illegal immigrants to work his lawn, roughly one full year after reports of their conduct first came about.

The apparent reason for his taking this action: The Boston Globe had investigated the problem further, and was about to publish a new story about it. As the Globe details, illegal immigrants working for that same company went to work on that same lawn the very next morning after Romney took heat about it at the YouTube debate.

Barack Obama got a pleasant surprise at an Iowa event, meeting 19-year old Muriel Gallo-Chasanoff, who blew the whistle on the Hillary campaign's planted questions. After Obama quipped to the Grinnell college crowd, "these questions were not pre-selected or pre-arranged," the students all pointed to the local celebrity.

Obama then joked, "I'm not gonna call on her," but then later on did talk to her, and took a (supposedly real) question.

Here's something Mike Huckabee want to do as he rises in the polls: Read a newspaper. Huckabee sat down last night with reporters, and it turns out he still hadn't heard about the National Intelligence Estimate showing that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Not only that, but Huckabee continued speaking about Iran in terms of them being about to acquire nuclear weapons, even after reporter David Paul Kuhn summarized the official findings for him.

"I don't know where the intelligence is coming from that says they have suspended the program or how credible that is versus the view that they actually are expanding it ..." Huckabee said. "And I've heard, the last two weeks, supposed reports that they are accelerating it and it could be having a reactor in a much shorter period of time than originally been thought."

Mike Huckabee is now facing possibly the worst story he'll have to deal with during this race: Activism against him from the mothers of murder victims, killed by a man he helped to free. In 1997, the Arkansas parole board freed convicted rapist Wayne Dumond after Huckabee advocated on his behalf. Dumond had become something of a cause célèbre on the right, with some Republicans alleging that Dumond had been railroaded because the victim was a distant relative of Bill Clinton.

A year after Dumond's 1999 release, he killed one woman in Missouri, for which he was convicted, and authorities strongly believe he killed another. Now the mothers of his victims are mobilizing against Huckabee's presidential campaign. "They say you’re supposed to forgive," said Lois Davidson, the mother of one of the women. "There are two men I don’t think I’ll ever forgive ... Mr. Huckabee and Wayne Dumond."

Here's Tom Tancredo's new ad in Iowa, in which the narrator shows the consequences of open borders: A lot of dirty, tattooed, brown-skinned gang members coming into this country to commit rape and murder.

Mitt Romney might be in a dogfight with Mike Huckabee in Iowa, but the new ABC/Washington Post shows that he still has a strong lead in New Hampshire. Romney has 37% of the Republican primary vote, with John McCain at 20% and Rudy Giuliani with 16%. Huckabee is way behind with 9%.

Huckabee has shown new strength in some New Hampshire polls, but not in others — and Romney is still first in all the New Hampshire polls. With that in mind, look for Romney to simultaneously fight against Huckabee in Iowa, while also building up New Hampshire has a firewall against the ex-governor and minister.

Another national poll, this a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey, shows Mike Huckabee moving into second place:

Democrats:
Clinton 45%
Obama 21%
Edwards 11%

Republicans:
Giuliani 23%
Huckabee 17%
Thompson 14%
McCain 11%
Romney 9%

Rudy has fallen nine points since the last Bloomberg/LAT poll in October, while Huckabee has climbed ten points. Thompson, McCain and Romney have all fallen one or two points each, but those are not statistically significant changes.

Mike Huckabee got a decent bump today in Iowa, with a public event featuring the endorsements of 60 different pastors from around the state — a natural constituency for the conservative Baptist minister and ex-governor. Among those in attendance was Chuck Hurley, who had previously supported Huckabee's main rival for religious right support at the Iowa Straw Poll, Sam Brownback.

The knock against Huckabee has been that he lacks money and organization. With the backing of 60 conservative ministers — a number that can only grow even further — the organization can build itself.

A new SurveyUSA poll in Ohio shows Hillary Clinton to be a stronger Democratic nominee than Barack Obama in this key swing state, and John McCain to be the best Republican nominee. Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee is enjoying his own boost in popularity:

Clinton (D) 48%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 41%
Clinton (D) 47%, Huckabee (R) 45%
McCain (R) 51%, Clinton (D) 43%
Giuliani (R) 46%, Obama (D) 43%
Obama (D) 45%, Romney (R) 42%
Huckabee (R) 44%, Obama (D) 41%
McCain (R) 51%, Obama (D) 40%

In the last SurveyUSA poll of Ohio, Huckabee was the weakest GOP nominee, but that "honor" now goes to Mitt Romney as Huckabee's name recognition and reputation have improved.

While campaigning on Hillary's behalf in New Hampshire, Bill Clinton offered his take on the press coverage surrounding the primaries: He doesn't like it. Bill's view is that the press spends too much time on the horse-race element, and completely glosses over Hillary's superior record and experience.

"One percent of the press coverage was devoted to their record in public life. No wonder people think experience is irrelevant," Bill said, in an obvious knock against Barack Obama. "A lot of the people covering the race think it is."

"Sixty-seven percent of the coverage is pure politics. That stuff has a half life of about 15 seconds," he added. "It won't matter tomorrow. It is very vulnerable to being slanted and rude. And it won't affect your life."

Mike Huckabee's surge in Iowa isn't going unnoticed — nor is it going unopposed. A new group with the rather interesting name, "Iowans for Some Semblance of Christian Decency," are distributing a flier attacking Huckabee not only on the basis that he isn't a real conservative, but that the former Baptist minister isn't a real Christian, either.

Among their complaints is that his coddling of illegal immigrants amounts to a violation of the 8th Commandment — that is, he's allowing illegals to steal from American taxpayers. Huckabee's past statements in praise of America's religious tolerance and diversity are also called into question, saying that such talk is "a tool to undermine Biblical Christianity."

In a possible taste of attacks to come, the flier is also one of the first attacks against Huckabee over the Wayne Dumond case, when a convicted rapist was paroled in Arkansas thanks to Huckabee's help, and then committed rape and murder in Missouri.

In a surprising development, the Republicans have lost the man who may well have been their best candidate in a normally solid seat — meaning that it might just turn into a real race. Wyoming state Rep. Colin Simpson (R), son of former U.S. Sen. Alan Simpson, announced yesterday that he is not running for the open House seat, after all. Simpson had indicated earlier this year that he would run against incumbent Congresswoman Barbara Cubin in the primary. Now neither of them are running.

Cubin's 2006 Democratic opponent, Gary Trauner, is already running again after barely losing, and can count himself lucky over Simpson's departure. However, Wyoming remains a heavily Republican state that will in all likelihood go for the GOP presidential nominee by a huge margin, and there are plenty of other prominent Republicans statewide.

Late yesterday the Hillary campaign sent out an email alleging that the Obama camp is engaging in dirty tricks of various sorts against her. The email claimed that Hillary supporters were reporting that they'd received a variety of strange phone calls from the Obama campaign, adding: "In both Iowa and New Hampshire, we have heard that Obama staffers are berating Hillary supporters on the phone with negative attacks against her."

Earlier today the Obama campaign put out a statement adamantly denying any involvement in such calls, saying that this was a "flat out falsehood."

Now the Hillary campaign has supplied a woman who claims to have gotten such a call, and I've just gotten off the phone with her. Here's what the woman, a Hillary supporter named Barb Therriault, who said she owns a hair salon in Plymouth, N.H., told me:

Last Tuesday evening I received a call from the Obama campaign, a gentleman identifying himself as from the Obama campaign in New Hampshire. He wanted to know my thoughts about the upcoming election in New Hampshire. I identified myself as a Hillary supporter.

He wanted to know what my thoughts were and why exactly I was supporting her. He started to argue that Hillary did nothing as a First Lady, what makes you think she'll do something now. It was definitely prepared.

Then I went on to say, well, women's rights are important to me. Then he had another prepared statement. He claimed that when South Dakota passed legislation to outlaw abortion, Hillary refused to fight it and to help try to support women's rights. He claimed that Obama was the only one would aid the people in South Dakota trying to fight that.

Then when I talked about her experience, he went on to say, I must be the sort of person who likes dirty tricks and politics as usual and said I would be supporting someone who would never change anything. I said he was insulting my judgment. He wanted to fight with me more, but I ended the call at that point.

The woman said that the call had come from a New Hampshire number, though she said she didn't make a record of it or remember it. Asked if she was certain that she'd heard the caller identify himself as from the Obama campaign, she said, "I couldn't say 100 percent," but added she recalled clearly that he had identified himself this way "immediately" during the call.

The woman said she isn't working for the Hillary campaign and isn't on its payroll. She added that she'd mentioned the call to coworkers and said that they had told her they'd received similar calls "since September," which raises the question of why the news of this leaked several months late.

We are working to verify whether the woman's -- and the Hillary camp's -- claim that such a call came from the Obama campaign is true or not, and we'll let you know what we find.

More on this soon.

Late Update: A political operative I know and trust emails over the following take on the call:

It sounds like an overactive volunteer. I mean, you would identify yourself as with the campaign you were calling with. And you would have been given scripts to rebut certain excuses. The person could have been given the exact talking points by the campaign or just been eager in their own right. It's always hard to tell without having the phone script in hand. But the South Dakota abortion thing is kind of in the weeds, and makes me think it has to be a talking point given to the caller.

Mike Huckabee's Republican opponents might have found a new wedge issue they can use against him. The Washington Post notes that Huckabee came out of a recent meeting with John McCain and a group of retired generals, now firmly opposed to waterboarding and in favor of closing the prison camp at Guantanamo.

It's hardly the sort of position that would appeal to the dominant Jack Bauer sensibilities of the modern GOP. By contrast, Mitt Romney has denounced the idea of affording any Constitutional protections to terror detainees, praised the use of "enhanced interrogation techniques" on Khalid Sheik Muhammad, and has even said he wants to "double Guantanamo."

Roll Call reports that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) is dropping out of the leadership race for chair of the Republican Conference. This leaves Sens. Lamar Alexander (TN), who lost the November 2006 whip race by one vote against Trent Lott (MS), and Richard Burr (NC) as the two candidates.

The conference chair position is being vacated by Jon Kyl (AZ), who is now running unopposed for whip after Lott's sudden resignation announcement.

John Edwards got a good laugh out of an audience of several hundred at a community college in Iowa yesterday when he mocked the Hillary campaign's much-derided claim that the voraciously ambitious Barack Obama said he wanted to be President way back in kindergarten. The Des Moines Register reports:

Edwards grinned as he recounted the Clinton campaign's allegation.

"I want to confess to all of you right now," he told his audience, "in third grade, I wanted to be two things: I wanted to be a cowboy, and I wanted to be Superman."

This morning Hillary pollster Mark Penn said that the "kindergarten" claim had actually been intended all along as a joke.

Now this is interesting. Yesterday the Hillary Clinton campaign was pilloried in the press after it issued a press release that attacked Barack Obama for claiming he wasn't running for President in order to fulfill a life-long ambition. In a widely mocked move, the Hillary camp cited the fact that he had written that he wanted to run for President way back in kindergarten and in the third grade.

This morning, Hillary adviser Mark Penn went on MSNBC's Morning Joe to explain that the release was all just a big joke. "Oh, that is so silly," Penn said, claiming to be amazed that anyone actually took it seriously as a real attack:

The original press release is available after the jump.

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John Edwards has a new ad in Iowa, in which he talks to the camera about his work against big corporations when he was a trial lawyer, and challenges viewers to "the moral test of our generation" — that this generation be able to give their children a better life than they had:

The Hillary campaign is now accusing the Obama camp of "berating Hillary supporters on the phone" in Iowa and New Hampshire — and going a bit further by subtly accusing the Obama camp of dirty tricks, using the same campaign e-mail to talk about "reports that Hillary supporters are getting calls that tell them incorrect caucus locations."

With the caucuses and primaries getting closer and closer, we'll be seeing a lot more reports like this one. The full e-mail from Hillary campaign manger Patti Solis Doyle is available after the jump.

Update: Ben Smith got a response from Obama spokesman Bill Burton:

This flat-out falsehood is the latest attack in a silly season where our opponents have promised to stop at nothing in an effort to tarnish Barack Obama's character. Push polling or tactics of confusion have no place in this campaign and we don't or won't engage in them. Unlike some other campaigns, we want every potential Iowa caucus-goer to participate in the process, no matter who they support.

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Mike Huckabee has officially disavowed the third-party push-poll effort being conducted on his behalf in Iowa. "I don't know who is behind it. We've asked them to stop," Huckabee said yesterday. "I don't think it's helping us. In fact, it's hurting us, and it's not part of our campaign. We have publicly repudiated the tactics because they do not represent our kind of campaigning."

Jonathan Martin has uncovered some information about Common Sense Issues, the group conducting the "Trust Huckabee" campaign. The group's manager, former NRSC political director Patrick Davis, says the group even plans to do their own recruiting of precinct captains for Huckabee's campaign — though it's questionable at best whether they can do those sorts of campaign activities and maintain their 501(c)(4) non-profit status, and they risk overlapping and interfering with the official Huckabee campaign's own efforts.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is now spending money — a lot of it, despite their fundraising problems this year — in the special election for what is normally a very safe seat. CQ reports that the NRCC has put in $280,000 on behalf of Republican nominee Bob Latta, who is running for the seat of the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R-OH).

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have already put in $150,000 on behalf of Democratic nominee Robin Weirauch, even though the district went for President Bush by 22% in 2004. If the special election on December 11 even turns out to be close, it'll be taken as bad news for the Republicans.

The Iowa Democratic caucus is now seeing its first negative third-party ad. The left-wing Dem group Democratic Courage has this ad out, accusing Hillary Clinton of bending on the issues every time the Republicans attack, using her short-lived "Baby Bonds" proposal as a case-in-point:

Ben Smith offers this caveat: "The group's founders like Edwards, and have contributed modest sums to him, but there's no evidence the group is linked in any way to his campaign."

Here's a sign that Oprah Winfrey might be able to get some results for Barack Obama: The Obama campaign has already run out of free tickets for the December 9 Oprah event in South Carolina. For some perspective on that, the event is in an arena that seats 18,000 people.

Part of the battle between Obama and Hillary Clinton in South Carolina has been for the support of black women. If the Oprah brand name is able to move some of them into the Obama column, Hillary's current lead in the polls there could well be worn down significantly.

John Edwards is running as possibly the most partisan of the top-tier Democrats, but one promise he made yesterday in Iowa could help him appeal to more independent voters, too — that he would make sure to have some Republicans in his cabinet.

"Here's why: because I'm looking for the strongest, most capable, most independent-minded people I can find," Edwards said, then drawing a strong contrast with President Bush. "I want people around me who will say, 'You're wrong about this, and you could do grave damage if you do it. Mr. President, you need to change your mind.' Because I'm not perfect, I'm capable of making mistakes."

Mike Huckabee's surge apparently isn't just happening in Iowa — he's moving up nationwide, too. The new Gallup poll has Huck in a three-way tie for second. Rudy Giuliani leads with a 25% plurality, with Huckabee at 16%, Fred Thompson 15%, John McCain 15%, and Mitt Romney 12%. Huckabee has gone up an amazing ten points in the last month.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton still has a national plurality of 39%, but it's down from a 50% high a month ago. Barack Obama has 24%, and John Edwards 15%.

Hillary has been promising to draw a "contrast" with Obama more forcefully in the home stretch of the race in Iowa, and today in that state, she did just that, unloading on Obama in a new speech that is her most direct effort yet to frame the choice voters face.

"I’ve heard a lot of talk about turning the page, but what about the action to back it up?" Hillary said, before running through a litany of ways she says Obama's policy proposals fall short. She accused Obama of using "Republican talking points" on Social Security; of offering a health care plan that leaves out "15 million Americans"; and of failing to show up for a vote on the Kyl-Lieberman Iran vote.

The speech comes as some polls show Obama with a lead in Iowa, while others show it a dead heat or show her ahead.

More speech excerpts after the jump.

Late Update: The Obama campaign responds to the speech here.

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The Democratic field will almost certainly be winnowed to one or two serious candidates and a couple hangers-on before Super Tuesday — and the viewing public will have a chance to see those candidates face off on January 31, five days before the February 5 national primary, in a newly-announced debate.

The debate will be broadcast on CNN, hosted by them plus the Politico, the Los Angeles Times, and the California Democratic Party.

A curious new pro-Huckabee group is running some interesting phone calls in Iowa — and they're blurring the line between message-testing and outright push-polling. Jonathan Martin reports that the automated calls first ask respondents if they will participate in the Republican caucus, if they are pro-life and oppose gay marriage ... and then let the negatives fly against John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson.

The calls then refer people to a Web site called Trust Huckabee, which says it is paid for by "Common Sense Issues." A search at Open Secrets found no listing for any group called "Common Sense Issues," and the only listings found at the Federal Elections Commission site show no disbursements on file yet.

A new wild card has opened up in the Iowa Democratic caucus: The University of Iowa won't be keeping the dormitories open for the winter holiday. This is the first time the caucus is being held during the break, and this decision means that a lot of students who would have wanted to participate in either party's caucus will be left out.

One might initially think this is bad news for Barack Obama — after all, he's relying on heavy support from students — but on closer inspection it's actually a wild card that could help or hurt any of the candidates, and in fact stands to reward whoever has the strongest organization among students. Check after the jump for a full explanation.

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A new round of Associated Press/Pew polls from Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina shows Hillary Clinton leading in all three Democratic contests. This would go against other recent polls showing Barack Obama ahead in Iowa, but in all those cases Iowa has been within the margin of error — meaning that the race for Iowa is almost certainly tight.

Hillary has been enjoying wide leads in practically every primary state except for Iowa, where she either trails or only leads narrowly. In short, the other candidates will need to upset her in Iowa if they want to beat her.

The full numbers are available after the jump.

Late Update: As the commenters have pointed out, the data from these polls was actually taken throughout November, when Hillary was inarguably doing much better than she is now, even though it was only released today.

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The Hillary campaign is cranking up their counter-attacks on Barack Obama, and this latest one from their official Hillary Hub site is certainly interesting:

The post links to Rove's latest column in the Financial Times, in which he told Obama to take off the gloves and go after Hillary in Iowa if he wants to win the nomination.

The Hillary campaign is really milking this thing for all it's worth. From their standpoint, Rove's column could be used to work against the perception that the Republicans really want to face Hillary, and that Rove might think Obama is actually beatable. In addition, the two pics and the headline play into another Hillary campaign narrative: That when the other Democratic candidates attack her, they're really just parroting Republican talking points and helping the GOP.

Outgoing Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D) is starting to sound more and more like a definite candidate for Senate against Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R). In an interview with the Lexington Herald-Leader, Stumbo says he has private poll numbers showing him with "a distinct advantage" in the Democratic primary. Stumbo has been exploring the race, but previously hinted he would get out if a stronger Democrat came along.

Stumbo also had tough words for State Auditor Crit Luallen, who has been the object of a draft effort by some Dems. "Even if I were not interested in this race, I would not advise her not to run," said Stumbo. "I would think it would be very difficult to get sworn in one week for a four year term and turn around two weeks later and file for a different position. I think people think that’s too opportunistic."

It looks like Democrats are sensing an opportunity in Ohio, where voters will choose a replacement for the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R) next week in the state's strongly Republican 5th Congressional District. The race is a longshot in terms of the district's previous voting patterns, but the Democratic Congressional Congressional Committee is still putting some money in.

According to the latest FEC filings, the DCCC has just made a $150,000 media buy against GOP candidate Bob Latta. Latta was bruised by a highly contentious primary with state Sen. Steve Buehrer, and the DCCC believes that populist Democrat Robin Weirauch just might have a shot in the district — even though the district supported Bush by a 22% margin in 2004.

John Edwards has a new ad in New Hampshire, defying the opponents of universal health care to tell him which child isn't entitled to health care:

Edwards has been placing a lot of importance on Iowa, but this ad is a sign that he won't be neglecting New Hampshire, either. After all, should he win Iowa, he'll need some on-the-ground support ready to go for the five-day sprint between the caucus and the New Hampshire primary. But he'll need to get to work — all the polls in New Hampshire show him in a distant third behind Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

In a sign that the race is going to get exciting (and perhaps brutal) in the home stretch, Hillary Clinton is officially firing back at Barack Obama, in the wake of multiple polls showing him slightly ahead in Iowa and catching up in New Hampshire. "There's a big difference between our courage and our convictions, what we believe and what we're willing to fight for," the Washington Post quotes Hillary, saying that there is a difference "between someone who talks the talk, and somebody who's walked the walk."

"I have said for months that I would much rather be attacking Republicans, and attacking the problems of our country, because ultimately that's what I want to do as president," she added. "But I have been, for months, on the receiving end of rather consistent attacks. Well, now the fun part starts. We're into the last month, and we're going to start drawing the contrasts."

The Republican front group working to put an initiative on the California ballot to split the state's electoral votes has previously boasted that they would easily get the signatures they needed — but now it doesn't look quite as likely. The Los Angeles Times reported over the weekend that the group is already pushing its deadline for turning in signatures, and the campaign manager was not certain that they would meet their goal of 700,000 — enough to provide a buffer against disqualified signatures.

If this measure were to get on the ballot and pass, it would allocate California's electoral votes by Congressional districts rather than a winner-take-all popular vote, as is employed by almost every other state. That would give the Republicans an estimated 20 or so electoral votes, enough to hand them the presidency in a close race that otherwise would have gone to the Democrats.

John Edwards has picked up a major endorsement in Iowa, that of freshman Congressman Bruce Braley. The congressman is set to announce the endorsement today in Waterloo.

A first-place finish in Iowa is a must Edwards, or really for any Democratic candidate with the possible exception of Hillary Clinton. Braley's support could help Edwards out, and at worst it definitely can't hurt him.

Well, it looks like Mitt Romney will finally give the long-awaited "JFK Speech" designed to assuage any misgivings about his Latter-Day Saints religion — and, perhaps, to deal with any of those doubts that are coming from evangelical Christians who might be attracted to another candidate, like Baptist minister Mike Huckabee. The speech will be delivered at the George Bush Presidential Library this Thursday, December 6, at 11:30 a.m. ET.

"This speech is an opportunity for Governor Romney to share his views on religious liberty, the grand tradition religious tolerance has played in the progress of our nation and how the governor’s own faith would inform his Presidency if he were elected," said Romney spokesman Kevin Madden, in a statement. "Governor Romney understands that faith is an important issue to many Americans, and he personally feels this moment is the right moment for him to share his views with the nation."

Barack Obama has picked up a major endorsement in Iowa, where recent polls show him either narrowly leading or just narrowly behind Hillary Clinton. Obama announced today the endorsement of Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie, who was easily re-elected last month with 80% of the vote.

If Obama is to win the nomination, he must beat Hillary here and gain the momentum necessary to chip away at her leads in almost all the other states. Cownie's support in heavily Democratic Polk County may help him towards pulling that off. At the very least, it certainly can't hurt.

It's usually not a good sign for a frontrunner to be met by boos at a forum. But that's just what happened yesterday to Hillary Clinton at the Heartland Community Values Forum in Des Moines, which she was participating in via telephone after bad weather prevented her from making it to the venue.

Hillary was asked whether it would be a priority for her to give "undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship" — reminiscent of the question about driver's licenses for illegal immigrants that got her in so much trouble a month ago. Her decidedly non-specific responses — that "comprehensive immigration reform will be a high priority for me," and “Well you’ve got to get the Congress to pass the legislation in order for the President to do as much as possible, which I will do" — earned a round of boos from the audience.

Oh boy. The Idaho Statesman has investigated additional allegations of illicit gay sex involving Senator Larry Craig (R-ID) — including one from former Denver prostitute Mike Jones, already famous for outing Ted Haggard — and there might just be something to these additional accusations:

As with the Statesman's August report, the new evidence is not definitive. There are no videos, no love letters, no voice messages. Like last August, they are he-said, he-said allegations about a man seeking discreet sex from partners whom he counted on to never tell.

But the Statesman's investigation, which included reviews of travel and property records and background checks on all five men, found nothing to disprove the five new accounts. The men offer telling and sometimes similar details about what happened, or the senator's travel records place him in the city where sex is alleged to have occurred, or his accusers told credible witnesses at the time of the incident.

John McCain just got a good break in the New Hampshire primary, picking up the endorsement of the state's largest newspaper the New Hampshire Union Leader. The paper is a long-time conservative standard-bearer in state politics, so their support could potentially influence a decent number of GOP voters.

"What is most compelling about McCain, however, is that his record, his character, and his courage show him to be their most trustworthy, competent, and conservative of all those seeking the nomination," the paper says. "Simply put, McCain can be trusted to make informed decisions based on the best interests of his country, come hell or high water."

The newest Des Moines Register poll shows Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama seriously upsetting the previous frontrunners in their caucuses, Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton:

Democrats:
Obama 28%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 23%

Republicans:
Huckabee 29%
Romney 24%
Guiliani 13%

In last month's Register poll, Hillary had a six-point lead over her closest competitor — John Edwards at the time — and Romney was 17 points ahead of Huckabee. That is some serious swing happening on the Republican side. The only question is, can Huckabee (and to a lesser extent Obama) sustain this up until January 3? It's going to be a fun December!