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Romney Camp Spinning Threat From Huckabee In Iowa
Here's a sign that Mitt Romney's campaign is taking the threat of Mike Huckabee very seriously: After having led in Iowa by wide margins for the past several months they're already starting to spin a potential second-place finish now that they're in a tight race.
"It would be nice if Romney won," said Doug Gross, the 2002 GOP nominee for governor and a member of Romney's Iowa campaign, according to the Los Angeles Times. "If he finishes in the top two, he's fine."
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Of course if he finishes second to Huckabee, that is probably true (meaning he would still have a good chance at winning the nomination).
The killer would be also finishing second or worse in NH after finishing second Iowa--that he probably cannot do and still win the nomination.
November 30, 2007 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I don't think that if Huckabee beats Romney in Iowa that will lead to enough New Hampshire voters deciding to vote for Huckabee, McCain or Giuliani.
November 30, 2007 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, telling the truth now counts as "spin"?
1972 Edmund Muskie
1980 George Bush Sr.
1988 Richard Gephardt & Bob Dole
1992 Tom Harkin
Each of them won the Iowa caucus but failed to win their party's nomination. Add to that list the candidates who won Iowa & the nomination, but lost in the general election (3 Republicans and 4 Democrats), and the real importance of winning Iowa becomes clear ... it's not so important.
Democrats who win Iowa win the nomination 56% of the time*, and the presidency 22% of the time; Republicans win the nomination 60% of the time*, and the presidency 38% of the time. (* = subtracting out the incumbents who ran unopposed)
Bush Sr. (1988) and Clinton (1992) came in 3rd(!!!) in Iowa and went on to win both the nomination AND the presidency. Dukakis came in 3rd in 1988 but won the nomination. McGovern (1972) and Reagan (1980) were 2nd in Iowa but won the nomination (Reagan winning the presidency).
McGovern (1972) and Clinton (1992) lost both Iowa AND New Hampshire but still won the nomination (Clinton winning the presidency).
Republicans who win New Hampshire win the nomination 73% of the time and the presidency 53% of the time; Democrats win the nomination 64% of the time and the presidency 39% of the time. Conclusions: Winning in Iowa can help you win in New Hampshire, but neither one is absolutely necessary to winning either the nomination or the White House.
Spin that.
November 30, 2007 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
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November 30, 2007 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Icy, I think it has to do with Romney spending a fortune in Iowa, then leading in the polls by double-digit margins. If he comes in second at this point, it's a huge defeat.
November 30, 2007 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
BJ, I agree, but my point is that Romney's campaign isn't spinning anything, because a win in Iowa is not necessary in order to secure the nomination. He's leading in New Hampshire and South Carolina; he has Michigan and Utah locked up; and he has A LOT of money. So, if he gets 2nd place in Iowa his campaign will survive.
November 30, 2007 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink