Romney Catches Up With Rudy In New National Poll!
The newest national poll by American Research Group could just be a statistical outlier — or it could be the first sign that Rudy Giuliani is losing his national lead among Republicans.
Rudy leads the GOP field with only a 25% plurality, followed by Mitt Romney with a very strong 21% — statistically tied, given the ±4% margin of error. Fred Thompson is in third with 17%, and John McCain is in fourth with 12%.
The Democratic side isn't anywhere near that close. Hillary Clinton has 46%, Barack Obama 21%, and John Edwards 11%. This is about in line with other recent national polls.
Comments (9)
gcs wrote on November 14, 2007 1:57 PM:Oh, wait so you mean the race isn't over yet? You mean the teevee bobbleheads will actually have to start reporting events rather than tell us how we'll obediently follow their brilliant prognostications?
Jane wrote on November 14, 2007 3:17 PM:gsc: I'm confused -- I thought the polls were tracking what people thought. You seem to think it is the reverse?
Since when does what a poll reports about what people are thinking represent an attempt to force us to continue to think that way?
This is like claiming that taking a picture at the half way post at a race track is fixing the result!
Joseph Antley wrote on November 14, 2007 3:19 PM:That's awesome. I like Romney and I'm glad he's gaining momentum. If the race goes with Romney that high in national polls, and then he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he might have a shot.
gcs wrote on November 14, 2007 3:28 PM:My point, Jane, is that the teevee bobbleheads long ago decided the race they wanted to cover, and so they've been acting as if everyone else is running just to provide some interesting human interest stories. I, for one, couldn't be happier that the polls are now starting to show some movement - since people in Iowa and New Hampshire are actually going to vote soon they have to put some serious thought into who they want to be president, rather than who the coiffed pretty boys expect to be the nominee.
Travis wrote on November 14, 2007 5:39 PM:I'm a little skeptical that Romney can jump from around 12% to 21% for no major reason. But I do like the trend! He is definitely who I would "hire" to run the country.
JJF wrote on November 14, 2007 5:49 PM:Romney Catches Up With Rudy In New National Poll!
I don't think you can say that Romney "catches up with" Giuliani if Romney has 21% and Giuliani has 25%. True, it's possible they are even given the margin of error, but it's possible that Giuliani's true lead is 29% to 17%.
The misleading headline tells me someone at TPM is rooting for, or against, one of the candidates.
votenic wrote on November 14, 2007 7:02 PM: 2008 Presidential Election Weekly Pollhttp://www.votenic.com
Results Posted Every Tuesday Evening. votenic wrote on November 14, 2007 7:02 PM: 2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll
http://www.votenic.com
Results Posted Every Tuesday Evening. low-tech cyclist wrote on November 14, 2007 8:58 PM:
It's ARG. If they're the only poll showing a particular result, don't trust them. Use them only for confirmation of the work of a more reputable pollster.
